Do any of you understand why British PM Sunak is calling for an early election?

[unicorn]

The press is stating that his conservative party is expected to lose in the upcoming election, but he himself chose the early election date. At first glance, it would not seem to be in his interest to hold an early election. If one of you understands why he's doing this, maybe you might educate me. Thanks

[stevenkesslar]

14 hours ago, unicorn said:

The press is stating that his conservative party is expected to lose in the upcoming election, but he himself chose the early election date. At first glance, it would not seem to be in his interest to hold an early election. If one of you understands why he's doing this, maybe you might educate me. Thanks

You ask.  Politico answers.

UK election: Why Rishi Sunak pulled the trigger

While it sounds glib, I think their line - "Why now? Why not?"  may be as good an explanation as we will get.  Or as is needed.

I have felt a little sorry for him.  My perception when he took over, which has proved to be right, is that the humiliation of everything that came before him was bad enough that he really had no chance to make things right.  He certainly has not gained any more in popularity.   And he has to have an election sooner rather than later, anyway.  So he sounds like a hard-nosed pragmatist who, as the article says, knows no White Knight is coming.  And so why not get it out the way?

Speaking of hard-nosed pragmatist, this was a good article on Keir Starmer, heir apparent.  

This election seems like it will be a perfect example of Allan Lichtman's central theory about US elections:  it is basically a thumbs up or thumbs down judgment on the party in power.  Rishi knows there is nothing he can do to change the judgment that is coming, probably.  So whatever Starmer has done may not matter all that much.  That said, all that stench of anti-Semitism and radicalism from Corbyn just a few years ago is gone.  Starmer sounds like he has done a very good job positioning Labor to rise.

[unicorn]

Well, "why not?" seems like a silly "reason," since the answer is obviously to give enough time for your policies to work. I do thank you for the article, though, which suggests what might be the real reason: he's really rich, doesn't like the residence, and doesn't care that he's throwing his fellow MP's under the bus.

"... from all accounts, Sunak doesn’t seem to be loving life at No. 10...  Frustrated politically, life in the cramped flat in No. 10 must have seemed less and less appealing. Especially after his and his wife’s personal fortune increased by £120 million to £651 million in the latest Sunday Times rich list...". 

His decision, therefore, might just be a way of quitting (at the expense of his party). Now, if only Biden could pressure the President of Israel to call a prompt new election in Israel, maybe they'd get rid of BN...

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, unicorn said:

Now, if only Biden could pressure the President of Israel to call a prompt new election in Israel, maybe they'd get rid of BN...

Good point.

And if only Trump would follow Rishi's lead, and decide that his policies suck and he can just go be rich somewhere else.  😉

I will push back on one idea ... that Sunak is throwing his party under the bus.   That was actually the party he inherited.  The Tories were thrown under by the bus by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.  Or, arguably, by themselves and their unpopular policies.

Sunak came to power in October 2022.  So he inherited a complete mess.  That polling chart also helps explain "Why not?"  If Sunak were somehow able to turn it around, we would know that by 2024.  He has not.  If anything, that polling suggests that every month he waits the bloodbath for Conservatives could be a little bit worse.  So it also has this feeling of, "Why not chop off an arm and a leg now, because if we wait they will chop off our head, too."  Rishi will personally be fine, regardless, as you note.

You didn't mention inflation, but ........................

This does reflect on Biden as well, and also pretty much any democratic leader that presided while the global inflation shit show happened.  The pattern seems to be that anyone in power as inflation spiked is unpopular because of it.  But Rishi, like Biden or Trudeau or [name a leader in Europe]  is not getting credit for inflation "coming down".   Republicans are obviously hoping they can turn 2024 into a referendum on inflation.  And blame inflation in the US, the UK, and [name a country on the planet Earth] on Joe Biden and his awful policies.  If Biden can survive despite that headwind, it suggests that half a century of knowing how to stay on top politically actually does make a difference.  

Good news is, whatever happens, Sunak and Trump will still be rich.  And Sunak doesn't even have to worry about going to jail.  😉

[unicorn]

22 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

... if only Trump would follow Rishi's lead, and decide that his policies suck and he can just go be rich somewhere else.  

I will push back on one idea ... that Sunak is throwing his party under the bus.   That was actually the party he inherited.  The Tories were thrown under by the bus by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss...

Well, I think the main reason Trump wants to be POTUS again is that he wants to avoid spending the rest of his life in prison. I don't think the framers of the Constitution ever imagined that such a corrupt President and political party would ever come into power, but unless the impossible happens--Democrats get over 60% of the US Senate seats and a majority of the House--his win would assure him that he'll stay out of prison until 2029 (by which time he'll be pretty near death, if he makes it even that long given his terrible physical health). As you pointed out, the economies, and especially, inflation, of most western countries are improving following the problems of the early 20s. The high inflation of the early 20s wasn't due to Johnson/Truss policies nor Biden's, but rather due to rampant price hikes resulting from China's disastrous "Zero-Covid" policy and to Saudi Arabia's price gouging in the oil and gas market.