It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over

[Gaybutton]

I hope he's wrong, but last night a Thai bar owner told me that yet another massive Red Shirt rally is planned for Bangkok on July 14, less than a month from now. I have no way to know if that is true, but he seemed to know what he was talking about.

 

Keep your fingers crossed, folks. Enough is enough!

[Guest fountainhall]

But I also happen to believe, rather strongly, that it's much too simplistic to put this whole thing down to Shinawatra or some people being "paid" to protest

I totally agree. But I am sure you will agree that does not negate the view put forward by myself and some others on this Board that a great many of the red shirt protesters were paid, and that in all likelihood the funds came from Shinawatra and his cohorts. The funds transfer facts as listed in the Bangkok Post article very strongly point to this.

 

I hope he's wrong, but last night a Thai bar owner told me that yet another massive Red Shirt rally is planned for Bangkok on July 14

I cannot believe that the government and the army, having been through the slaughter, arson and mayhem arising from the last rally - to say nothing of the near destruction of Thailand's image so well described in the Newsweek article posted on this Board recently, can possibly permit such an event. Nor can I see many of Bangkok's citizens being prepared to put up with it. It will be interesting, though, to see what measures they might take to prevent it.

[Gaybutton]

It will be interesting, though, to see what measures they might take to prevent it.

I hope he is wrong, but he seemed very sure about it. All we can do is wait and see. I have not seen or heard anything about this except from him. Let's hope no news is good news.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

Since there has been no news about this anywhere, it is just rumor and I think it is best not to spread rumor.

[Gaybutton]

Since there has been no news about this anywhere, it is just rumor and I think it is best not to spread rumor.

Granted, but I also wanted to see if anyone else is hearing the same thing or has seen news I hadn't seen. I think I made it quite clear that there has been no news and the only place I heard this was from this one bar owner.

[KhorTose]

I totally agree. But I am sure you will agree that does not negate the view put forward by myself and some others on this Board that a great many of the red shirt protesters were paid, and that in all likelihood the funds came from Shinawatra and his cohorts. The funds transfer facts as listed in the Bangkok Post article very strongly point to this.

 

Really not quite logical. All the leaders are in jail. All their bank accounts are frozen and still the red shirts are still protesting. Show me some real proof money is being paid and not second hand or government manufactured evidence. I cannot understand how with this horrible government, you continue to believe the people who are against it, are just against it for money. This is a "Give me a break" kind of wishful thinking on your part.

[Guest fountainhall]

Really not quite logical. All the leaders are in jail. All their bank accounts are frozen and still the red shirts are still protesting. Show me some real proof money is being paid and not second hand or government manufactured evidence

I totally fail to understand that comment. Bob

[Bob]

I have no doubt that some of the redshirt protestors received some payments on occasion; however, I don't believe that most of them were regularly paid nor do I believe that the payments accounted for the presence of the majority of the protestors. Just my beliefs based on what I've read and what I've been told.

 

I've also known some Thais that were paid to vote - and some of them were paid by both sides! And every one of them, when asked, told me they voted the way they wanted to vote once they went behind the curtain. When I asked if it wouldn't have been better not to have taken either side's payments, I've always gotten the "what are you nuts!?!" look in return.

 

In other words, payments by political parties have been endemic for years but, based on what I've seen and heard, it doesn't follow (at least to me) that this means that all or even a majority of the protestors aren't true believers.

[Guest fountainhall]

In other words, payments by political parties have been endemic for years but, based on what I've seen and heard, it doesn't follow (at least to me) that this means that all or even a majority of the protestors aren't true believers.

That's a fair point. I believe it is largely the degree of corruption in this country and how it extends throughout the whole fabric of Thai society that results in much of what is called politics here being intimately related to money.

 

That said, it is the very murky nature of Thai politics that, for me, makes it all but impossible to tell black from white. KhorTose asks for "real proof" before he will accept any view but his own. Yet, in a vast number of criminal cases, for example, real proof is virtually impossible for criminal investigation departments to ferret out. So what hope does an individual have? Juries in many parts of the world are asked to deliver verdicts based on the evidence presented to them, however “real” or otherwise – and we all know of cases where it is subsequently discovered that evidence has been doctored, withheld or what have you. If you hold out for "real proof", in my view, you confine yourself to an almost surreal life of absolutes.

 

Politics, like life itself, is surely a palette of differing shades of gray. Regarding the red shirts, I take the evidence of my own eyes, along with that of Thai people of a variety of ages, social backgrounds and political persuasions, some of whom have been friends for 28 years, and other evidence which I consider both relevant and, on balance, more true than untrue. From that, I make a conclusion.

 

On that basis, having in this case been in the red shirt encampment (and posted photos on this Board) and seen certain events with my own eyes, I believe it to be a truth that the majority of those inside the encampment were paid - regularly. Equally I have no doubt that many were there as a result of deep-rooted grievances. One does not negate the other. Yet I can no more prove the former than any other poster can prove it did not happen. So asking for “real evidence” is frankly meaningless. I have my view, and I am unlikely to change it unless I am presented with “evidence” to the contrary. And I doubt if Bob or KhorTose are going to change theirs. Hopefully, time will tell whose view is the more "real".

[Bob]

And I doubt if Bob or KhorTose are going to change theirs. Hopefully, time will tell whose view is the more "real".

 

No problem. A lot of what I believe is based on what I've heard from other Thais, what I've read in Thai newspapers for more than a decade, and from books.

 

Again - and I'm not trying to change your mind here - you ought to read Wyatt's history of Thailand, one of the most authoritive tomes out there on the subject (at least in English). It's rather tedious reading and it actually covers events only up to 1983, the year it was published, but it does offer a lot of background that helps me make sense of the last few decades of Thai politics. Hadley's book will add to that. I've read both multiple times and I'm always amazed when I read a passage describing something that happened 30 years ago or 100 years ago that seems to add to my sense of deja vu (i.e., the passage seemingly describes something I read in the Post or Nation just weeks ago).

[Guest fountainhall]

Again - and I'm not trying to change your mind here - you ought to read Wyatt's history of Thailand, one of the most authoritive tomes out there on the subject (at least in English) . . . Hadley's book will add to that

I will certainly do so once I get hold of them. I have read some books on Thai history and economics, but not yet these.

[Gaybutton]

Since there has been no news about this anywhere, it is just rumor and I think it is best not to spread rumor.

Maybe it's not merely rumor after all:

_____

 

Reds Planning Revenge

 

By THE NATION ON SUNDAY

Published on June 20, 2010

 

Security intelligence warns of new round of anti-government rallies once emergency is lifted.

 

Anti-government red shirts seeking revenge are expected to instigate fresh turmoil in Bangkok and the provinces after the government lifts the emergency decree, security agency sources said yesterday.

 

Some provincial leaders of the red shirts have also begun warning about a new round of anti-government activities and rallies in several provinces, including Chiang Mai where anti-government sentiment and movement still run strong, according to the security intelligence appraisal.

 

Reds planning revenge

[Guest lvdkeyes]

Now there is some news of it, so no longer a rumor.

[Guest fountainhall]

This is one instance where I have some doubt about the accuracy of a story in the media. The government surely realises that once news gets out into the international media, the further damage to the country's image worldwide could be incalculable. Video and photos of Bangkok in flames will be resurrected to go alongside many of the stories. Short-term visitors will postpone their trips or go elsewhere. And those planning on visiting during the high season will put everything on hold. I therefore have a sneaking suspicion that this could be planted to give the government an excuse to continue the state of emergency.