Military Crackdown Imminent - "We can crush them all."

[Gaybutton]

We all have our varying opinions as to who is right, who is wrong, and whether the government should or should not try to disperse the Red-Shirts. From the latest news reports, it does seem that the military is about to do something. Just what they intend to do remains to be seen. It's a sad thing when the military has to step in and take action against its own people.

 

My own opinion is the Red-Shirts have a right to protest, but I have a problem with their methods. A protest and even marching is one thing, but to disrupt a city and cause problems that are directly and adversely affecting the entire country in order to get what they want is not my idea of how it ought to be done.

 

Suppose they do get what they want, dissolution of the current government and new elections. Then what? What are they going to do if the candidates they support don't win? What will the opposition do if their own candidates don't win? What will the opposition do if a Red-Shirt government prevails and then tries to bring Thaksin back in? What will the military do if that happens, especially since it was the military that ousted Thaksin in the first place?

 

I think no matter how it all plays out, Thailand is going to suffer serious consequences for quite some time to come.

 

And no matter which side wins, look what a new government and Prime Minister would have to deal with - a country torn apart, with its reputation for being a peaceful, safe place to visit, invest in, and reside in ruined, with the tourism industry in terrible shape, and plenty of other problems to go with it. It's not a job I would want, that's for sure.

 

"You were both wrong! And you were both right."

- Yul Brynner, 'Taras Bulba'

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PM Rejects Softened Red-Shirt Demands

 

Dissolution deadline 30 days, talks set to restart

 

Published: 24/04/2010

 

Politics plunged back into crisis on Saturday when Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva rejected a compromise offer from the red shirts, who said they were now braced for a crackdown.

 

Hopes for an agreement to end weeks of protests, which have been punctuated by deadly street clashes, evaporated as Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva ruled out the offer by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) to disperse its protest if polls were called in 30 days.

 

PM rejects softened red-shirt demands

[Guest fountainhall]

I'm not sure it is correct to use the word "imminent" - although the word itself can inevitably be stretched somewhat. One army commander said last night that nothing will happen immediately because, as I saw myself last week in walking through the protest site, there are lots of women and children, some very young, within the area.

 

But I have to agree that something radical must now be done. For some time this has not been a protest: it has been a take-over of a key part of the city requiring it completely to shut down for weeks. No matter how divided the politicians and military might happen to be, no government can tolerate this kind of stand-off. It could all have been stamped out relatively easily some weeks ago. Now, sadly, it's going to be a another bloody mess! But then, this is Thailand!

[Gaybutton]

I guess I should have followed the word 'imminent' with a question mark. The news reports make it seem as if something is going to happen, and very soon. The way I see it, the Red-Shirts are not going to give in. The Abhisit government is not going to give in. Now the "No Color Shirts" are planning a mass demonstration.

 

There seems to be no end to it and Thailand can't afford to let this just go on and on as a never-ending stand-off. To me, it all seems to be heading in just one direction - the military. Unless something changes, the only way I can visualize this coming to an end is military intervention. I hope it doesn't come to that because it would mean more injuries, more deaths, more hatred, the possibility of martial law being imposed, and an outcome satisfactory to no one.

 

Only a short time ago I was sure nothing was going to happen at all and that I hoped I wouldn't end up having to eat my words. Unfortunately, I've had to chow down on those words. I never expected the situation to degenerate to what it has become. I really didn't. My predictions couldn't have been more wrong. I can only hope my predictions about military intervention turn out to be just as wrong.

[gumbleby]

I don't think it's a good idea for the military to even try to intervene just because protesters keep blocking off a few intersections. Thai authorities didn't even manage to keep protesters out of an international summit nor from parliament.

 

Talking of threats to national security and dignity, they hardly tried to remove protesters who trashed Government House and even the airport. Of course defense against overwhelming force is easier if you're holed up than if you're in the middle of an intersection.

 

I guess it might be best to just let this run it's course, probably until the next scheduled elections - it's not as if all of Thailand is paralysed.

 

Thai authorities definitely need to improve their riot handling skills and get the proper gear for it (I don't believe tear gas or water cannons kill or maim many people when used in western democracies). Until they do, any attempt at intervention is risking a bloodbath out of proportion to the problem.

[Gaybutton]

any attempt at intervention is risking a bloodbath out of proportion to the problem.

I hope I'm wrong, but that's exactly what I think they're going to do.

 

I also think saying they're only blocking a few intersections is oversimplifying the problems resulting from this, but I hope it doesn't take a bloodbath to resolve it.

[Guest]

Peaceful protest is an important freedom.

 

Equally, the people who wish to have nothing to do with the protests should be free to carry on their daily activities without disruption. Unfortunately that is not possible at present, therefore force should be used to break up the protests or move them back to some out of the way park.

 

Perhaps it has become necessary to define what is acceptable as protest. Blocking airports, transport intersections and other economic activity is not. Occupying a patch of grass next to the palace is.

[Gaybutton]

Peaceful protest is an important freedom.

I agree with every word you wrote.

[Guest luvthai]

If the army does step in and use force to end this crisis then democracy has had a big set back. But the right to peaceful protest ended with the launching of gernades and the death of bystanders. The attempt to blow up the fuel tanks at the airport could have had a serious impact on air travel and possible closure of the airport and could have resulted in a great loss of life.

Unfortunately tho the real culprit in this will remain free while his supporters will most likely have many years of prison ahead of them. As long as Thaksin breaths there will be unrest.

It is time for some action to end this but I will mourn the loss of lives as I think of the thais as family.

[Guest fountainhall]

I guess it might be best to just let this run it's course, probably until the next scheduled elections - it's not as if all of Thailand is paralysed.

Tempting though this may seem, it's just not a practical - or even a possible - solution, if only because the next election does not have to be held till next year.

 

Have you seen the area that is blocked off? It's really huge. And it's not just a matter of 15 or so 4- and 5- star hotels and some of the largest and most expensive shopping malls having to be be closed down. Sure, they are losing billions, but eventually that is going to have a knock-on effect on the economy of all Thais. In the meantime, what about the tens of thousands of Thai workers who are in the process of being put on short-time wages or sacked because there are no customers?

 

It's also the hundreds (thousands?) of small shopkeepers within and close to the protest area who are really furious with the red-shirts. I have a young Thai friend who depends for much of his livelihood on a tiny shop across the road from Siam Centre. Although he's been open throughout the protests, he's had about 3 customers in the last two weeks. He's grateful that he still has his stall at Chatuchak, but many shopkeepers around him do not. They have had to close. Some have gone bankrupt. He's soon going to go bankrupt if the area is not cleared and the public allowed to enter freely. He's a very non-political guy from up-country, but he's mad as hell and he's now going to the multi-coloured rallies.

 

I agree with your comments about the way successive governments and the armed forces have totally bungled security. Whatever is about to happen, clearing the Rajaprasong area is vital. That's the easy part, though. As I saw myself, hundreds of women and young children are camping out there. They - plus others who are stuck in there through no fault of their own (e.g. many thousands of apartment dwellers) - have to be got out before any force is used.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

All this just disproves Thaksin's assertion that he is for what is best for Thailand.

[Guest fountainhall]

They - plus others who are stuck in there through no fault of their own (e.g. many thousands of apartment dwellers) - have to be got out before any force is used.

Sorry, this did not come out as complete as intended! I should have added -

 

How to get them out is the real problem.

[Guest cdnmatt]

You know, at first I used to feel for the red shirts plight. After all, I'm always the guy who guns for the underdog, and their demands seemed very legitimate and reasonable. Unfortunately, they've completely discredited themselves over the past several weeks, and have proven they're not willing to solve problems using rational negotiation and reasoning.

 

On the other hand, I think Abhisit has been very patient, shown a huge amount of restraint, and has acted very cordial throughout this entire ordeal. He's tried negotiations and compromises, but the red shirt leaders simply weren't willing to listen. The red shirts did this to themselves.

 

It's obvious that another military crackdown is on its way. When that happens, let's just hope the military doesn't splinter into factions, because a lot of those soldiers are conscripted Issan boys. I doubt that'll happen, but after seeing a good number of soldiers partying with the red-shirts after they took over ThaiCom, makes you wonder.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

The military hierarchy needs to make it clear to the rank and file soldiers that their responsibility is to the military and they will be severely punished (court martial)if they don't follow orders.

[Guest fountainhall]

Is this problem with the army largely a result of having a conscripted force, I wonder? I know several countries in Asia still have conscription - Taiwan and Singapore, for example, but would a fully professional army change things here? Of course, that would almost certainly require a larger military budget and I have no idea where the cash would come from.

 

One more thing has continually worried me here - the role the army plays in day-to-day life. One or more of the armed forces runs a TV station, has concessions for this, that and the next thing, and former generals and senior officers are all over politics. That a seeming idiot like General Chaovalit should be not only a former premier - the one responsible for the sudden devalutation of the Baht in July 1997 and the subsequent Asian economic crisis, not only responsible in part for the violence in October 2008 (as he admitted in his resignation letter), not only be appointed two months ago by the exiled Thaksin as Head of a new People's Army, but still be trying to take over the reigns of power, must surely be seen as a joke in most other parts of the world!

[Gaybutton]

(court martial)if they don't follow orders.

I'm not so sure how well that would work if hundreds or even thousands of soldiers refuse to obey the orders. I don't see how the military could punish large numbers of soldiers. That would be a hell of a lot of courts martial.

 

Still, the military obviously does something to convince soldiers to obey. I think about the past situation in Burma, when soldiers attacked their own people people who tried to rise up against the government. My thoughts were those soldiers have families too and it's hard to imagine that loyalty to a few fat-cat military leaders would supersede their feelings about the suffering of the poor, which probably includes their own families and they themselves.

 

Maybe fear of courts martial plays a part, but I just can't imagine that in itself is the only factor that motivates them.

[Guest RichLB]

 

Still, the military obviously does something to convince soldiers to obey. I think about the past situation in Burma, when soldiers attacked their own people people who tried to rise up against the government.

I think the situation in Myanmar is different. My understanding is that eeking out a living in the country is next to impossible, with many many people going hungry. Being in the military is seen, I think, as about the only way to avoid devastating poverty and is a highly valued boon (to the soldier and his family).

 

In Thailand, although there are poor, the level of poverty is not as bad. Kids are drafted into the army and many of them don't want to go in the first place. Additionally, I understand military discipline here is quite lax when compared to most countries. While many of the top brass may hook their wagon to the current government, I think many may yearn for the power they had during the Thaksin years. This is certainly true of the police when corruption feathered many a nest under Thaksin's rule. I don't think anyone, including the army itself, knows how many military will bolt. I suspect many would and even more police if they are called.

 

Frankly, I don't have a clue what I would do if I was Abhisit. He has shown tremendous restraint, but I don't know how much of that is by choice or if he believes he has no other option. If he complies with the Red shirt demands, I fear Thailand will be seen as a country ruled by the mob and deemed a poor place for international investment. If he continues to do nothing, the Reds will become even more emboldend and the resistance will spread to a more out of control level. If I was him, I think I'd just go to bed, pull the blankets over my head, and pray this was all a bad dream.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

It is apparent that you, GB, have not been in the military. In basic training you are trained to do as you are told when you are told and not to question authority. They make examples of some who refuse to do what they are ordered to do and soon the rest fall in line.

[Guest fountainhall]

It is apparent that you, GB, have not been in the military. In basic training you are trained to do as you are told when you are told and not to question authority. They make examples of some who refuse to do what they are ordered to do and soon the rest fall in line.

I take it you are talking about training in certain other countries. With the best will in the world, I cannot believe that is what happens here.

[Guest lvdkeyes]

I would have to talk to a Thai military guy, but I believe it must me the same or at least similar.

[Gaybutton]

They make examples of some who refuse to do what they are ordered to do and soon the rest fall in line.

I am well aware of that, but I'm talking about if soldiers refuse in massive numbers to obey. I don't know whether that has even a remote chance of happening, but if they receive orders to start shooting their own people, I can see it as a possibility. I have no idea whether there is any truth to this, but I have heard rumors that one of the reasons Abhisit has not yet actually called in the military is because he fears the possibility of something like that actually happening.

[pong]

My understanding is that eking out a living in the country is next to impossible, with many many people going hungry.

Sorry-but this is not quite true. Famine or hunger is not very prevalent in Burma/Myanmar. Monotonous food-diets or some lack of some ingredients may be the case. As such this is not really any different from the situation in Laos, Cambodia or Indonesia. In fact, as seen from a distant perspective, Indonesia and Burma/Myanmar share a lot of common things. Part of problem/explanation with the army there is that its manned by the main/central ''tribes(Bamar)'' who are suppressing the various minorities, some of which closely resemble Thai. Nearly all news that reaches the outside world from/about Burma/Myanmar comes from those minorities and as such is at least coloured or a little biased. Not that I am defending the regime there-but it seems right to me to point at misperceptions.

 

One not yet mentioned note about Thai army is that most of soldiers are untrained (and many would say so are most of the generals-except in golf-playing). And certainly they are untrained in situations like this in the midst of urban landscape. They have even been unable to isolate the redshirts in their Rajprasong stronghold from getting in/out and even for food and water-which would have been a fairly obvious measure to take. It also seems that any planned move is briefed over the the reds as soon as its decided on.

[Guest fountainhall]

One not yet mentioned note about Thai army is that most of soldiers are untrained

I think I kind of referred to that in some way by suggesting that Thailand would not have these problems if the army were fully professional and now reliant on conscription.

[Guest]

I am well aware of that, but I'm talking about if soldiers refuse in massive numbers to obey. I don't know whether that has even a remote chance of happening, but if they receive orders to start shooting their own people, I can see it as a possibility.

 

Surely they would receive orders to disperse the protests, blockades and road blocks, using as little force as possible, rather than mowing down crowds of people.

And if the odd ring leader has to be taken out, shouldn't the armed forces have some kind of elite hard nosed & professional division for that?

[Guest cdnmatt]

And if the odd ring leader has to be taken out, shouldn't the armed forces have some kind of elite hard nosed & professional division for that?

 

They do. There's been reports that when the military moves in, a couple dozen special forces will rappel down from helicopters, with hopes of either killing or capturing the leaders.

[Gaybutton]

Several stories have emerged today. In brief, the government has vowed that the protesters will no longer be allowed to infringe on the rights of others and will no longer be allowed to break the law at will. Protesters setting up roadblocks will be immediately arrested. Several have already been sentenced to 15-day jail terms. The Skytrain (BTS) has resumed service, but only operate from 6:00am to 8:00pm until further notice. CRES (Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation) has authorized use of live ammunition if soldiers feel threatened or if mobs approach within 30 meters.

_____

 

 

Skytrain Ruled Out to Transport Troops

 

Blockades ordered to stop protest spreading

 

Published: 28/04/2010

 

The government is denying accusations that it plans to use the skytrain to launch a crackdown at Ratchaprasong intersection after a group of red shirts paralysed the service by blocking the rail track at Chidlom station yesterday.

 

Acting government spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn yesterday said the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) had not considered accessing the rally site by the skytrain, which runs above Ratchaprasong intersection.

 

But a source at the CRES contradicted Mr Panitan's remarks, saying there was a plan to use the skytrain to bring in soldiers to disperse the crowd.

 

Skytrain ruled out to transport troops

__________

 

Gov Warns of Tough Action

 

By The Nation

Published on April 28, 2010

 

PM: We won't allow demonstrators to leave Rajprasong site and cause confusion in city

 

The government yesterday warned of tough action against the red-shirt protesters, saying the authorities would no longer tolerate mobs wreaking havoc by illegally setting up road checkpoints and causing unrest in many areas of the country.

 

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who heads the government's Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation, said police and soldiers would take action against red-shirt supporters violating the law at will.

 

"The government has intensified measures against the red shirts, because they have created a situation of unrest by setting up checkpoints that infringe on other people's rights," Suthep said. "We cannot talk to these people any longer."

 

He warned that any protesters found setting up illegal checkpoints would be arrested immediately.

 

Gov warns of tough action

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Red Shirts Get 15 days in Jail

 

Published: 27/04/2010

 

The Thanyaburi Court on Tuesday sentenced 11 leaders of the red shirts who blocked Phayon Yothin highway on Monday evening and checked citybound vehicles to prevent police and soldiers from entering Bangkok, to 15 days each in jail without suspension.

 

Red shirts get 15 days in jail

__________

 

CRES Okays Live Rounds against Protesters

 

By The Nation

Published on April 28, 2010

 

The Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation, in preparation for dispersing the anti-government protesters from the Rajprasong area, yesterday said security forces could fire live bullets if they felt threatened at close range.

 

"If an attacker comes within 100 metres, officials will fire tear gas first, but if he comes closer, within 30 metres, guns may be fired," said spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd.

 

CRES okays live rounds against protesters