What's Next for Thaksin? - A Thai Editor's Opinion

[Gaybutton]

The following appears in THE NATION:

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Where will Thaksin End Up - Literally?

 

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

Published on March 19, 2010

 

It is clear that this is not the upheaval that Thaksin Shinawatra was hoping for. But what he plans to do next is as foggy as the air in Chiang Mai at the moment. On Wednesday, in the face of setbacks, he was belligerent, asking the dwindling numbers of red shirts at the Phan Fah Bridge to hold on for just one more week, after which, he promised, they would be tasting a sweet victory.

 

Reports indicated that fresh funds have been shipped in to bolster the sagging campaign. Though most of the protesters came to Bangkok with "pure hearts" - as the organisers have insisted - they still have to eat and support the ones they've left behind. A lot of the red shirts have deserted the rally, and considering the official breakaway of hardliners led by ex-communist Surachai Sae Dan and fugitive Jakrapob Penkair, as well as the backlash of the blood protest, the movement needs urgent and drastic re-engineering.

 

Though how this will be done is an urgent question, an even more immediate issue has to do with Thaksin's whereabouts. Public and media curiosity aside, his political movement is badly distracted by questions about where he has been and the government's claims that he has been kicked out of the United Arab Emirates.

 

During his phone-in on Wednesday night, Thaksin vowed to return to the UAE port city of Dubai very soon to prove that the Foreign Ministry was lying. He said he was in Montenegro for business, and photos circulated online yesterday did indeed show him and his children in that country.

 

So, what has really happened? Without access to flight and immigration records, one can only speculate.

 

SCENARIO ONE

 

Here's Thaksin's side of the story: He innocently left Dubai for Montenegro to inspect a hotel renovation after deciding to plunge into property investment there. The trip unfortunately coincided with an earlier Thai government protest to the UAE Embassy that he was using Dubai as a political base to undermine the Bangkok administration.

 

Loophole: Leaving Dubai for another staggering business investment at a time when his "slave" protesters were sleeping on the streets and shedding blood?

 

SCENARIO TWO

 

He has been staying in Cambodia to be in a better position to guide (or command, if you will) the red shirts. The Montenegro photos could be old ones. He wasn't expelled from the UAE and is about to return to rub it in the Foreign Ministry's face.

 

Loophole: AFP reported Thaksin had been spotted in Montenegro just a few days ago, and later the Montenegrin police confirmed he was there. Nobody has seen him in Cambodia lately.

 

SCENARIO THREE

 

The same as Scenario Two, except he came to Cambodia after being booted out of Dubai.

 

Loophole: He might pop up in Dubai today or tomorrow.

 

SCENARIO FOUR

 

A mix of Scenarios One and Two. He had come to Cambodia and, after learning that his location was being compromised (a lot of news reports were speculating that he was in Cambodia), he flew off to Montenegro and pretended to have been there all along. He wasn't expelled by the UAE and is poised to embarrass the Foreign Ministry in a day or two.

 

Loophole: Nobody has really seen him in Cambodia lately.

 

SCENARIO FIVE

 

The same as Scenario Four except he has actually been ousted from Dubai.

 

Loophole: Nobody has really seen him in Cambodia lately and he has been very defiant about returning to the UAE.

 

SCENARIO SIX

 

Doesn't have much to do with where he was, but whether he was really kicked out by the UAE. In this scenario, he was really asked to leave, which explains why he wasn't "quite there" for his followers at the beginning of their most crucial campaign to save him. But according to this scenario he will be able to return to Dubai after lobbying or negotiating with his long-time hosts.

 

Loophole: Too much diplomatic flip-flopping for comfort.

[Guest]

Scenario Seven

 

The sky is falling. The sky is falling.

[Guest fountainhall]

Too many scenarios! Hope we get some facts soon.

[Gaybutton]

The following appears in the BANGKOK POST:

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Thaksin Rejects Peace Effort

 

HRC Holds Talks with Warring Parties

 

Published: 19/03/2010

 

Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has thrown cold water on an attempt by the National Human Rights Commission to mediate a settlement between government and red shirts.

 

Thaksin yesterday rejected the panel's legitimacy to act as a broker in the conflict.

 

The commission, led by chairwoman Amara Pongsapich, has been trying to find a way out for both sides since the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship rallies kicked off in Bangkok last Friday.

 

Earlier this week, the panel held talks with UDD leading members, including Veera Musikhapong, Jaran Dita-apichai and Weng Tojirakarn. It met with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday at the 11th Infantry Regiment.

 

Its role as mediator had raised hopes of possible negotiations taking place as both the government and the UDD had responded positively.

 

The ultimate goal of the NHRC-brokered talks was to stop the red shirt protests in Bangkok, said Ms Amara.

 

"As of now, they have promised to vacate some areas [they are occupying] for the Red Cross Fair," she said.

 

"That's a positive step. We have to keep talking with the protest leaders to see on which points they can agree. We need to persist with the talks."

 

The fair is due to be held from March 30 to April 7 on Ratchadamnoen Nok Avenue down to the Royal Plaza and Amphon Garden.

 

Commissioner Nirand Phitakwatchara said people were pinning their hopes on the NHRC to negotiate an end to the political conflict.

 

But he could not promise a quick end to the rally with conditions acceptable to both sides. "I cannot say the rally will end straight away. It will take some time," he said.

 

Mr Jaran agreed with Mr Nirand's remarks, saying: "Our ultimate goal is that the government must dissolve parliament. But it will take several steps at the negotiating table before we reach that point."

 

So far, the UDD's rally has been peaceful despite concerns about the possibility of violence from the government and army.

 

Jatuporn Prompan, another UDD leader, said Mr Abhisit must accept the UDD's demand to dissolve the House of Representatives so there could be a new election.

 

The People's Alliance for Democracy and UDD must also sign a pact promising they would accept the outcome of the next general election and recognise any political parties that emerge as winners and form a government, he said.

 

The government has repeatedly made clear its position that it would not dissolve the House before it could be sure it could turn around the economy, speed up constitutional amendments and draw up electoral regulations that are acceptable to all parties.

 

Mr Abhisit has insisted there must be a guarantee politicians can travel anywhere in the country to woo votes, even in their rivals' strongholds, before he agrees to dissolve the House.

 

But he said all the UDD demands were negotiable as long as they involve "the interests of the general public", such as the dissolution of the House, and they have nothing to do with Thaksin's personal benefits.

 

"If the demands are for the sake of a person's benefit, I don't think the government is in a position to talk because the government is duty-bound to act in the interests of the public," the prime minister said.

 

One of the stumbling blocs to the NHRC's initiative, however, looks like it could be Thaksin himself.

 

Last night, he rejected the role of the commission as he said it had not been proven it was an independent body. He accused the NHRC of serving the interests of the amataya bureaucratic elite.

 

Mr Abhisit said he could tolerate abuse from some of the UDD leaders, but he found threats of violence and remarks inciting violence, though spoken politely, unacceptable.

 

Mr Abhisit also said he was planning to file lawsuits against UDD leaders who used and distributed an audio clip in which he allegedly orders security forces to use violence to put down protesters during the Songkran riots in April last year.

 

Mr Abhisit said the clip contained his voice but it was doctored. He said he might seek a court injunction banning the use and distribution of the clip.

 

Mr Abhisit said he would also file defamation lawsuits against Thaksin and Mr Jatuporn.

 

On Tuesday, Thaksin spoke during a video link address to the red shirts and said Mr Abhisit was "mentally disturbed". He also likened the prime minister to Adolf Hitler.

 

Democrat Party for Bangkok MP Natthapol Theepsuwan, the party's director, said the party would take legal action against the protesters who smeared blood at the party's headquarters.

[Guest fountainhall]

In my view, it is good that some people are talking - or at least talking about talking. That's the last thing that Thaksin will want, of course, because he will rightly realise this will be another blow to his ever being able to return to this country as a free man. Assuming the rally is going to continue for some time to come, though, I am curious as to what will happen at Songkran. Will the demonstrators be prepared to give up their annual family/community gatherings to stay on in Bangkok?

[Guest GaySacGuy]

Assuming the rally is going to continue for some time to come, though, I am curious as to what will happen at Songkran. Will the demonstrators be prepared to give up their annual family/community gatherings to stay on in Bangkok?

 

My bet would be NO! Especially the younger people, which there really doesn't seem to be too many of from the photos I have seen. Songkran is a big deal, and it is still a month away...if this goes on that long, I am not too sure how many will be left by the time Songkran gets here...let alone through Songkran.

[pong]

thats still 4 weeks from now.

Songkran-for those who have hardly been to BKK-and assuming it goes on as ''always'' even when there are still seua-see-daeng demo's- is FAR more entertaining, hilarious and endless chances for water-throwing as in rural Isan. It lasts for several days and its like all-out watersplashinggames. This might thus be far more appealing to the young.

But I hardly see any young Isan-boys around. For 90% its hardy older Isan-farmer folks. With the rest for a large part being made up by well-coiffured, ultra-chic sunglasses and designer red-shirts wearing BKK-hi-so ladies.