Red-Shirt Rally

[Guest RichLB]

GB, I think it's a little early to claim your Jean Dixon award. Don't forget, the protests are scheducled to begin on March 14. This is only the 12th. As I understand it, today and tomorrow have been designated travel days for those in outlying areas to traverse to Bangkok to register their protest. From what I'm seeing on TV, that is exactly what is happening.

 

Even on the 14th I don't think anything untwoard will be happening unless one side or the other behaves stupidly. If a problem does occur, it will most likely happen following the scheduled day of protest. The government has said they will not intervene in any peaceful protest, but will insist it end on the 14th. The red shirts have said they will not leave until the current government is ousted. That seems to be when real confrontations (if any) will occur.

[Gaybutton]

I guess it is over: Gaybutton did not find any trace of rally on Friday afternoon in Pattaya which is scheduled on Sunday in BKK.

No shit, Sherlock . . . Meanwhile I'm sticking my neck on the chopping block because I believe I'm going to turn out to be right. Have you got guts enough to do the same thing? Well, no need to respond. The answer to that question is already obvious.

 

GB, I think it's a little early to claim your Jean Dixon award.

Odd as this may sound, I hope you're right. I'd like nothing better than to see some major happenings on Saturday and Sunday. You know why? Selfish as this may seem, my sole interest in any of this nonsense is how it might affect the exchange rates. If today is any indication, it's all going to be a big nothing. We'll see what happens as it all progresses.

 

My prediction is still all media hype and bullshit. If I'm wrong, then a bunch of you will get to have a field day chopping me apart.

[pong]

I did see them preparing bags of "Pa la" (I think that's some smelly liquid)

MIsspelt- its Pla (=fish) RA (raw), but ita a variation of the ubiquitous nam pla=fish sauce without which Thai cooking could not exist. A more or less Lao/Isan spoecial version of it, meaner, courser, more stinky etc. Some newspprs also reported that human (or buffale, or elefant, of whatever) excrement was being put in bags with the same purpose.

There are annoying (in the eyes of the redshirts) safety checkpoints all along major highways into BKK-newspprs showed dangerous weapons like sling-shots that were being confiscated as abundant proof of mal intentions.

[Guest fountainhall]

You know what my reaction is? Bullshit! While I do recommend staying away from the protests, my own prediction is still that the whole thing will turn out to be a big nothing.

 

In Bangkok I don't foresee airport takeovers, sit-ins at government facilities, or tremendous numbers of protesters. I think at most there will be a few thousand protesters out there, if that many. But tens of thousands out there causing chaos? I don't think so.

 

Are my predictions essentially right or do you think I'm going to end up having to write an "I'm Eating My Words" post?

Whilst I realise GB was talking about a single event on a single day, I do believe those of us who predicted it would grow are being proved to have been a little more prescient. I was in Central Childom today. At the Ploenchit intersection with Chidlom/Lang Suan, the red shirts have taken over the police control box, put all the traffic lights on flashing red, erected some barriers and - here's the nasty bit - two youths were controlling traffic flow. The potential for a traffic accident is quite high.

 

The reds have also managed to storm parliament, although it seems they volutarily withdrew. This from Reuters in a long article from The Khaleejee Times (I kid you not!) -

 

Hundreds of anti-government protesters briefly stormed the grounds of Thailand’s parliament on Wednesday after breaching a police cordon, ramping up pressure in a four-week street rally seeking snap elections. The red-shirted supporters of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra later retreated to two areas held in their mass rally, including the capital’s main shopping district where Bangkok’s biggest department stores have stayed shut since Saturday. Tens of thousands of “red shirts” have occupied Bangkok’s Rachaprasong intersection since Saturday, rejecting demands by the government to leave.

 

The scene outside parliament was among the most chaotic and confrontational since the sporadic protests began on March 12.

 

Protesters massing outside gates of the sprawling complex pressed up against a line of police clad in full riot gear. When some “red shirts” began climbing over an iron fence, the police retreated, and hundreds swarmed onto the grounds.

 

They approached the lobby doors but left after about 20 minutes to gather again outside the gates, brandishing guns and tear-gas canisters they said were seized from police.

Later it discusses the potential for problems with overseas investment in the country -

 

“I’ve been getting a sense for the first time in the more than three years since the coup that FDI (foreign direct investment) — including our client base — is really taking a hard look at Thailand long-term because of this,” said Roberto Herrera-Lim, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a consultancy.

 

“They see that the conflict is much deeper than the elite conflict of the past.”

Full article at Thai ‘red shirts’ briefly storm parliament