Thaksin Verdict Aftermath - Is it over for him or is it only beginning?

[Gaybutton]

As I predicted in another thread, now that the Thaksin verdict has been handed down so far nothing at all has happened. It's a perfectly normal day. Again, the only way you would know anything is going on would be to read the newspapers or watch TV.

 

To my mind, the big questions now are:

 

1. Is Thaksin's influence and power in Thailand dead now?

 

2. Despite the fact that so far nothing substantial has happened, does that mean it's over and nothing will happen as a result?

 

3. Is the Red-Shirt movement over, except for the die-hards?

 

All that remains to be seen, but so far the only news items I've seen all pretty much say the same thing, that Thaksin is bitter over the outcome and that while the Red-Shirts are disillusioned, disappointed, and angry, there have been no riots and the rallies have consisted of a few hundred people, but not the thousands and thousands that many predicted.

 

Is it over for Thaksin or is it just the beginning? Only time will tell.

 

The following appears in the BANGKOK POST:

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Jeers, Tears, Expletives as Thaksinites Absorb Bitter Blow

 

Ruling transforms carnival festivities at Puea Thai headquarters into anger, frustration, and misery

 

27/02/2010

 

Tears, jeers, expletives, crumpled handkerchiefs and something resembling war cries greeted the fact Thaksin Shinawatra is now 46 billion baht poorer.

 

About 300 red shirts at the Puea Thai Party headquarters yesterday responded with anger and tears at the Supreme Court's final verdict which was delivered at 8.50pm.

 

Upstairs on the fourth floor, 30 Puea Thai MPs sat in anxious silence while one of the nine judges presiding over the case at the court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions read the last portion of the historically-long verdict.

 

One MP blurted: ''This is not acceptable.''

 

Fifteen minutes later in front of a screen beaming Thaksin's image, Krongthong Puengsanga, white-haired woman said: ''Red shirts from every province must now come out to fight.''

 

In her hands she clutched an large photograph of Thaksin sitting astride a white horse.

 

Although the verdict could not have come as a total shock, the red shirts maintained high spirits throughout a day that could not accurately be described as eventful. The lengthy, monotonous reading of the court's deliberations had the dual effect of inducing heightened expectations and prolonged boredom.

 

Loyal supporters, mostly middle-aged women, sat glued to their seats in front of the projector's screen from early afternoon until late evening, listening to every word uttered by the judges and reacting with occasional hooting.

 

When the day began, it was expected that the drama would be focused on the Supreme Court near Sanam Luang.

 

In the afternoon, a handful of red shirts showed up, followed by an appearance by Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol. The view of riot police and barbed barricades gave the high-fenced building a timely gravity.

 

Across the street, the Daeng Siam (Red Siam) stage in Sanam Luang was a paltry affair that only attracted a small crowd.

 

By the afternoon, it was clear that the ebb and flow of emotions was actually taking place at the Puea Thai head office on Rama IV Road, Klong Toey, where the mood was upbeat, buoyant, even optimistic.

 

The red shirts turned the steps of the building entrance into an entertainment arena. They sang and danced and shouted Thaksin's name in glorious unison. The northeastern mor lam songs were a staple that spurred people to get up and shake their hips, like a mini carnival.

 

Puea Thai chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyudh arrived and roused the crowd into great emotion. Former prime minister Somchai Wongsawat's arrival again provoked a hubbub, with a number of women clamouring to have their photos taken with him.

 

''We're singing because we believe that we're fighting for justice and we enjoy doing it,'' said one man.

 

Yet there was tension in the air. At 3.30pm, loud cheers broke out on the steps of the building when, to the surprise of reporters, someone had mistaken the court's reading of the statement from Thaksin's defence as an acquittal. Prasith Chaisriya started to cry with joy. ''I was so happy,'' he said as he wiped his face, then was stunned speechless when he realised that it was a false alarm. ''I'm singing because today we're not fighting for one man but for justice,'' another woman said.

 

The same woman sobbed quietly six hours later when she learned her hero was a loser in the historic court case that will determine the course of Thai politics for years.

 

Only 100 Thaksin supporters turned up at the People Channel station to listen to the live broadcast of the court's verdict.

 

They occupied seats near a large projector set up in front of the office on the sixth floor of the Imperial Department Store at Lad Phrao.

 

One red shirt member said he arrived at the station early to listen to the verdict, which he did not expect would favour Thaksin.

 

The judges' explanations were lengthy and confusing, he said.

 

The once-cheering crowd of Thaksin's supporters quietly dispersed once the court ruled to seize 46 billion baht of the Shinawatra family's 76.6 billion in frozen assets.

____________________

 

And this, from THE NATION:

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10 Criminal Cases Now Possible

 

By Budsarakham Sinlapalavan

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

The Nation

Published on February 27, 2010

 

Thaksin Could Face Suits from Agencies

 

Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday was found guilty of hiding his assets and abusing his power while in office.

 

The Supreme Court's verdict could lead to at least 10 separate criminal cases in connection with the landmark Bt76-billion assets-seizure case.

 

First, the revenue-sharing percentage of a prepaid-mobile concession agreement between Advanced Info Service (AIS) and state-owned TOT was reduced from 25 per cent to 20 per cent.

 

This resulted in TOT losing Bt70.2 billion in revenue, including an estimated loss of Bt14.2 billion from 2001-06 and another estimated loss of Bt56 billion from 2006-15.

 

This could prompt TOT to file a separate lawsuit seeking compensation for the damage caused by the concession amendment.

 

Second, there was a failure to enforce a satellite concession contract between Shin Satellite (ShinSat) and the Transport Ministry, resulting in public damage of Bt20 billion.

 

ShinSat, a unit of Shin Corp and since renamed Thaicom, was supposed to invest in Thaicom 4, a back-up satellite costing Bt4 billion, under its contract with the government.

 

However, the contract was changed to allow ShinSat to switch to launch the commercially oriented iPSTAR satellite instead of Thaicom 4.

 

In addition, the concession contract was amended to reduce Shin Corp's investment burden in ShinSat from 51 per cent to 40 per cent.

 

Third, the state-owned Export-Import Bank of Thailand (Exim Bank) was persuaded to extend a Bt4-billion loan to the Burmese government to buy satellite services and equipment from ShinSat. This later caused the Finance Ministry to set aside Bt670 million as an interest subsidy covering the 12-year loan contract.

 

This could lead to a separate lawsuit by Exim Bank or the Finance Ministry seeking compensation.

 

Meanwhile, there could be four potential perjury cases related to official asset declarations of public office holders and their spouses.

 

Records of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) show the asset declarations of Thaksin and his then-wife Pojaman na Pombejra back in 2001 were Bt569 million and Bt9.96 billion, respectively.

 

However, Pojaman, in her recent closing statement in the Bt76-billion assets-seizure case, told the Supreme Court that Bt34 billion of the Bt76 billion belonged to her even though she reported her assets amounted to only Bt9.96 billion in February 2001, when Thaksin first assumed the premiership.

 

Besides the 2001 declaration, Pojaman reported to the NACC in 2005 that her assets had dropped to Bt8.91 billion and those of Thaksin to Bt506 million.

 

In the 2005 NACC filing, Panthongtae and Pinthongta, Thaksin's son and daughter, who had not yet come of age, reported combined assets of Bt3.26 billion.

 

In 2006, Thaksin declared his assets to be Bt557 million, while Pojaman's wealth was reported as Bt8.84 billion. Panthongtae and Pinthongta, who had come of age, were no longer required by law to declare their assets.

 

In this context, Pojaman had argued the Bt34 billion was owned by her before Thaksin assumed the premiership in 2001 and later transferred to Panthongtae and her step-brother, Bhanapot Damapong.

 

As a result, the entire amount could not be included in the Bt76-billion assets-seizure case.

 

In addition to these potential perjury cases, another two cases are pending in court. First, Thaksin was charged with abusing his power while in office by converting the AIS mobile-phone concession fee into an excise tax, thus weakening state-owned TOT, which was supposed to receive the concession fee.

 

Second, the fugitive ex-premier was charged with abusing his office by influencing state-owned Exim Bank to lend the Bt4 billion to the Burmese government to buy ShinSat satellite services and equipment.

 

In addition, Pojaman has been charged with evading taxes involving the transfer of Shin Corp shares. That case is now pending in the Appeal Court.

[Guest fountainhall]

Is it over for Thaksin or is it just the beginning? Only time will tell

I imagine it cannot be over as surely there must be the possibility of an appeal? Or am I wrong?

 

If there is an Appeal, if it is heard and the verdict confirmed prior to the next election, then I suspect it probably is over for Thaksin. Whilst remaining extremely wealthy, he will no longer have the huge excess of cash needed to fund a political comeback. Overturning that verdict will be well nigh impossible, I reckon. Besides, he remains a convicted felon and likely, according to the media reports GB outlined above, to be involved in several other court cases relating to this verdict. So his return to Thailand in the immediate to medium-term future is highly unlikely. And I suspect his real priority following an unsuccessful appeal will be to find some way back to his homeland, even if it means agreeing to remain out of politics for the rest of his life.

 

If there is an Appeal and there is no ruling prior to the election, my view is that he and his supporters will fight and win that election. Thereafter, all bets are off in my book. Sure, he will remain a fugitive from justice, but pressure could be put on the Court to overturn yesterday's decision. However unlikely that may be, it has to be a possibility. Further, there will be extreme pressure to find a way out of his previous conviction. That can only be granted by the Head of State. But if a majority in parliament and the senate vote for quashing the conviction (presumably on some vague legal grounds) and are supported by millions throughout the country, what, I wonder, is the constitutional position? My assumption is that some form of pardon would have to be granted. And once back here, who knows what sort of mayhem might result?

 

We should also remember that Thaksin personally is not the only injured party here. Other members of his family, especially, I suspect, his son, will be out to vindicate the head of their clan. A lot of dirty deeds in the name of vengeance against those who brought about his downfall could be in the works over the longer term.

 

I just hope any Appeal is heard quickly and the ruling confirmed. The doors are then open for the other actions by other corporations against Shin Corp, its directors, Thaksin and the other members of his family as shareholders at the time. Hopefully defending these allegations will take up so much of their time that others can get on with running the country.

[Gaybutton]

I imagine it cannot be over as surely there must be the possibility of an appeal? Or am I wrong?

Appeal to whom? The ruling came from the Thai supreme court. Who is left for him to appeal to? The supreme court is where the legal buck stops, isn't it?

[KhorTose]

It is not over till the fat lady sings. In the North many Thais are angry. I still say when the "most important one" dies the s... will hit the fan. I expect it will be a very long and maybe bloody time before the lady sings.

[macaroni21]

The question of "Is it over" needs to distinguish carefully between Thaksin and Red Shirts.

 

For Thaksin, I think it sill be extremely difficult for him to overcome this. In fact worse may follow. New cases may be launched to claw away some or all of the 30 billion baht this verdict returned to him. He'll be so mired in one case after another, it's difficult to see him playing a significant role in the long run.

 

For the Red Shirts, this is far from over. After all, they've gotten this far without any of this money, which had been frozen all this while. We're witnessing only the beginning. As Khor Tose said, the real contest will only start when a particular death occurs.

 

One reason I can offer why the Red Shirts feel they don't need to erupt right now is simply because they know time is on their side. They probably know this:

 

1. They still have wide support in the provinces;

2. Abhisit has to call an election sooner or later, and none of the present coalition parties stand a chance of winning.

 

In other words, it is in the interest of the Red Shirts to bide their time. Whereas it is more likely that the hotheads of the Yellow Shirts, or military, will want to use force to "settle" the matter once and for all... which of course is impossible.

 

What the Ancien Regime wants is untenable. Network monarchical rule cannot survive certain personalities. Governing to benefit a few over the interests of many is inherently unstable. That is why I indicated earlier that in the long run, the Ancien Regime can only lose. Whether the end result is some kind of compromise with the Red Shirts, or an outright sweep by the Red Shirts (e.g. what happened in Nepal) is one of only two questions left. The other is how much blood has to be spilled before we get there.

[Gaybutton]

Of course all any of us can do is guess what will, if anything, happen next. Yesterday, before it was read, Thaksin said he would accept the verdict no matter how it turns out. Today he is saying he does not accept the verdict.

 

There is talk about him taking his case to the International Court of Justice. If he does and if that court rules in his favor, there is nothing to force Thailand to comply with the verdict. I doubt that court would even agree to hear the case on the grounds that the case is a domestic case, not an international case. Still, you never know.

 

This thing could drag on for years or it could, for all practical purposes, already be over. It's too soon to know.

 

What I do know is that so far there have been no reports of violence or serious demonstrations. Today in Pattaya life went on normally, as if nothing at all had happened.

[pong]

Khun GB-my answer to all of your 3 questions would have been no. But from what I understand, this Intern. Court of Justice in den Haag/NL does not deal with these cases-it handles serious conflicts between nations, like warcrimes and the like.

IMHO I foresee a long-drawn out simmering ''smoking-out'' (dont know that in english-thats what we say) of both parties. The reds will propose new demo's etc by the month-and then withdraw them-as they would quickly bleed all money if they did hold them. The governing parties have no real method to stop all that.

A more worse scenario would be like that has enrolled in the Phillippines.

[Gaybutton]

So far, the only Red-Shirt reaction being reported in Pattaya is quite mild.

 

The following appears in the PATTAYA DAILY NEWS:

 

http://www.pattayaone.net/pattaya-news/14670/pattaya-red-shirts-gather-at-local-red-shirt-radio-station-after-thaksin%E2%80%99s-supreme-court-decision

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Pattaya Red Shirts gather at local Red Shirt Radio Station after Thaksin’s Supreme Court Decision

 

27th February 2010

 

Following the Supreme Court decision relating to the seizure of some assets belonging to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a group of around 100 red shirts gathered at the office of People Radio 89 FM which is located in Soi Day Night 2 in South Pattaya following rumors that soldiers from the Sattahip Navy Base were going to arrive and force the station to close.

 

Trucks fitted with loud speakers soon arrived and told the gathered Red Shirts what may happen. They were determined not to allow this to happen. The rumors appeared to be false and the station continues to broadcast for now, despite similar stations being shut down in Bangkok after the Supreme Court decision which seized 46 Billion Baht of Thaksin’s money.

 

The situation around Thailand remains volatile and should you encounter groups of Red Shirts here in Pattaya, please do not shout at them or abuse them in any way as this could put you and others in danger.

[Guest fountainhall]

Appeal to whom? The ruling came from the Thai supreme court. Who is left for him to appeal to? The supreme court is where the legal buck stops, isn't it?

Both English newspapers today mention the possibility of Thaksin appealing the verdict. Since there has been no ruling of the case by a lower court, I'd have thought this judgement must allow for the possibility of appeal.

 

Interestingly, whilst the Supreme Court has technically left Thaksin with US$800 million of his assets here in Thailand (to add to the "only" $100 to $200 million he claims he has left outside the country), these remain frozen whilst interest is assessed on the confiscated amount and "the settling of other cases and claims" against him, according to Time magazine. So his ability to fund political parties etc. must indeed be relatively limited now.

 

After all, they've gotten this far without any of this money, which had been frozen all this while

I am not sure macaroni21 is correct. There has certainly been talk of funds being pumped in from overseas, although I have no idea from whom and how much. I suspect, however, that Thaksin has indeed been funnelling cash. After all, until yesterday it was very much in his interest to do so.

 

Pong is correct about the International Court of Justice which only decides on cases of international law, or issues advisory opinions at the request of U.N. agencies.

[macaroni21]

I'm not denying that money is flowing in from Thaksin to the Red Shirts. What I was saying is that wherever that money was coming from, it wasn't from the 76 billion baht that had been frozen. Thaksin very likely has money stashed abroad, for example, didn't he sell his stake in Manchester City Football Club?

 

But once again, let me repeat: Don't dismiss the passion of the Red Shirts. It would be a mistake to think they're only doing this because they are paid to do it, and that once money stops, they'll all go home and the crisis will be over. Far from it.

[Gaybutton]

You know what I'd love to see? Emails from Thaksin (or some con artist pretending to be Thaksin) similar to the ones I get every so often . . . Dr. Mweleke Mwenene from Ghana, or somewhere, who wants to put untold millions into my bank account to help him get his money out of the country.

 

Do you get those? I check my junk mail folder once a week and there are usually one or two of them in there.

 

Oh well, whether you are a supporter, an opposer, or a 'who cares' with regard to Thaksin, I doubt the man is ever going to have to worry about where his next meal is coming from.

 

I also don't think the Red-Shirts are going to fade out of the picture just yet, but I do think there will be far fewer of them actively participating in protests and demonstrations as time goes on. If I were to bet on it, I wouldn't bet on them prevailing in the end. I think an awful lot of wind has just been knocked out of their sails and I don't think they're going to recover with the power and influence they held before the verdict came in.

 

Time will tell, but that's the way I think it's going to go. I could be dead wrong, of course. I've been looking all over the place, but I just can't find my crystal ball (and don't tell me to look for it under my leg . . . I already did. As always, nothing was there. Story of my life.).

[fedssocr]

Apparently his only hope for an appeal is if he comes up with some sort of new evidence. Not likely to happen.

 

I don't imagine this verdict really changes much of anything. The red shirts will continue to simmer. If they are smart they will find a way to disengage from Thaksin because I think he ends up being more of a distraction to their cause than anything. His unclean hands taint their movement. And they have some very strong arguments about the way things have evolved over time.

 

Another thing that hurts them is all of the "final showdown" talk. Whether that is a creation of the English language Thai press or something the red shirt leaders keep putting out there I don't know. But it makes them look like the boy who cried wolf when there are so many "final" events.

 

They keep talking about having giant protests which keep getting postponed. That makes them look very disorganized. Will they manage to scrape together their big protest in a couple of weeks? Perhaps that will be the end if it doesn't materialize.

 

Thaksin looks increasingly desperate despite getting half of his money back. Perhaps the greatest issue for him is the whole issue of "face". Despite the court's somewhat Solomonic decision, they still ruled that he was very corrupt. His bitter statement on TV today seemed to really bristle at that characterization. The longer he is out of the country the more marginalized he will continue to be. Appearing via video link isn't really a substitute for being there. And his talk of revolution last year put his followers in the line of fire while he sat cozily in Dubai. Do the people still in his camp want to be his pawns for his personal redemption? Or will they fall away as their own problems take precedence over that of this fugitive billionaire? Maybe he should join a monastery or something.

[Gaybutton]

His bitter statement on TV today seemed to really bristle at that characterization. The longer he is out of the country the more marginalized he will continue to be. Appearing via video link isn't really a substitute for being there.

Composer Jerome Kern was once asked to describe Irving Berlin's place in American music. His response was, "Irving Berlin has no place in American music. He is American music."

 

I think Thaksin sees himself in a similar manner. He would love it if people say he has no place in Thailand. He is Thailand. I think the verdict has slapped his face and kicked his butt. I think a person like him isn't going to give up without a fight and he likely sees this as losing a battle, but not the war. I think he is prepared to fight and is capable of anything to regain his power in Thailand. If he comes up with some new tactic it will be very interesting to see just how far the Red-Shirts will go along for the ride.

[Guest fountainhall]

Thaksin very likely has money stashed abroad, for example, didn't he sell his stake in Manchester City Football Club?

 

But once again, let me repeat: Don't dismiss the passion of the Red Shirts. It would be a mistake to think they're only doing this because they are paid to do it, and that once money stops, they'll all go home and the crisis will be over. Far from it.

Yes, he sold Manchester City and announced he'd made a nice profit from it. He forgot to add he was about to be kicked out of the Club because the Football Association had belatedly discovered he fell foul of the description of "fit and proper" persons permitted to run soccer clubs. It also seems he has quite a bit stashed away in a Caribbean tax shelter - although he has consistently denied this (perhaps because it also is against Thailand's election laws). But then the man is a fox and "deny" is one of his favourite words!

 

I entirely agree re the Red Shirts. They have gained a momentum of their own and we will see a lot more of them. I wrote some months ago about a taxi driver I encountered who had a passion for the red shirts and Thaksin I had never personally encountered before. This man virtually idolised Thaksin. Yet, with the ex-PM becoming increasingly marginalised and perhaps, in the light of a raft of new law suits, less willing to be so front and centre (wishful thinking?), I do wonder if the movement will become somewhat fractured. Take away the figurehead and what other charismatic leader/s will keep such passions aroused? And there is surely no doubt it will be difficult to develop a full-blown political organisation without Thaksin's considerable funds?

[Guest fountainhall]

Composer Jerome Kern was once asked to describe Irving Berlin's place in American music. His response was, "Irving Berlin has no place in American music. He is American music."

Another vaguely relevant aside, given Thaksin's professed admiration for Lee Kwan Yew and the somewhat autocratic measures PM Lee used to run his city state. George Gershwin ("Rhapsody in Blue") much admired classical composer Maurice Ravel (of "Bolero" fame) and asked if he could take lessons from the master. When Ravel learned how much Gershwin made, he told the American: "I believe it is I who should take lessons from you!"