Gaybutton Posted February 20, 2010 Posted February 20, 2010 As the day, February 26, that the Thai Supreme Court will render its decision as to whether ousted Prime Minister Thaksin gets to keep his money or whether Thailand confiscates it approaches, tensions are mounting. There are more and more doom-and-gloom predictions that major Red-Shirt protests and demonstrations are to be expected if the court rules against Thaksin and possibly Yellow-Shirt protests if the court rules in his favor. Apparently it is being taken for granted that the court will rule against Thaksin because the Red-Shirts (Thaksin supporters) are already out there causing problems. Yesterday, for example, a Red-Shirt demonstration forced the Bangkok Bank's main headquarters in Bangkok to close at about noon. (If you hold a Bangkok Bank account or plan to use a Bangkok Bank branch or ATM, no need to worry. All the branches, ATMs, and online banking remained open and operating normally.) Several countries are issuing travel warnings, including Australia, the USA, and the UK, advising foreigners to keep clear of any protests and saying the protests may turn violent. The following appears in the BANGKOK POST: _____ Foreigners Told to Keep Clear Published: 20/02/2010 The United States, Britain and Australia have issued new travel advisories warning their citizens about the risk of civil unrest as the Feb 26 verdict in Thaksin's 76 billion baht assets case nears. The warnings issued yesterday followed a mass rally by the anti-government United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship outside Bangkok Bank on Silom Road, which forced the country's largest commercial bank headquarters to close from midday. Political tensions are growing in the run-up to the so-called "judgement day" on Feb 26, when the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office will deliver its verdict on whether to seize ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra's 76 billion baht of frozen assets. Thaksin is accused of acquiring "unusual wealth" through the abuse of power when he was prime minister. It is likely that political demonstrations may take place leading up to, on, or after Feb 26, the US embassy said. "We wish to remind US citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possibly escalate into violence," it said. US citizens are urged to avoid demonstrations and to exercise caution within the vicinity of any demonstrations. The British embassy said the political situation in Thailand is tense and uncertain. British citizens should exercise great caution throughout Thailand and avoid demonstrations or large gatherings that might turn violent. "The court decision is a potential flashpoint. If, as quite possible, anti-government protests turn violent, British citizens should stay indoors and monitor the media," it said. The Australian embassy advised its citizens to exercise a "high degree" of caution because of the current political instability and expected demonstrations. "Follow any instructions issued by local authorities," the embassy said. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday said Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya is regularly updating other countries about the local political and security situation. "I want every party to help the country move forward because several things have been on a positive trend, particularly the economy," said Mr Abhisit. ____________________ And this, from THE NATION: _____ Protest Forces Bangkok Bank to Shut HQ By PRAVIT ROJANAPHRUK THE NATION February 20, 2010 Violence was lurking just beneath the surface at yesterday's red-shirt rally by the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) in front of Bangkok Bank's headquarters on Silom Road. Shortly after 2pm, a group of 100 red shirts and security personnel ran towards the Silom-Narathiwat intersection, apparently chasing some people. Some onlookers said a yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) member attacked a red car and ran away. Another said a group of PAD supporters attacked a red-shirted man. But nobody, police included, seemed to know for certain. The anger and hatred for the PAD and the old elite was very visible. One man, wearing a red necktie abusively ranted against the yellow shirts and Privy Council president General Prem Tinsulanonda, with words too rude to be published. By the same token, the PAD also cannot stand the red shirts. A columnist at ASTV-Manager Daily newspaper, under the pen-name "krong leb", wrote in yesterday's edition that people in the Silom area and elsewhere should chase away the red-shirt demonstrators with water. "May I advise [readers] to use peaceful methods. Those in high-rise buildings or on pedestrian bridges should simply splash water on those who are causing trouble to the nation without having to curse them." Water, by the way, is often used by Thais to splash against felines or canines caught in a vicious fight. Bangkok Bank was targeted by the protesters yesterday for its supposed link with Prem, against whom the red shirts have a major grouse. Prem is honorary chairman of the advisory board of this old and influential bank. Red-shirt leader Weng Tojirakarn told the 2,000 or so red-shirt demonstrators in front of the bank yesterday afternoon that Prem, being the chief adviser of HM the King, should resign from all posts in various companies such as the bank and the CP group. He said these are profit-maximising corporations that looked after their own good and ran counter to the spirit of the privy council. "All they do is profit maximisation and how can you just sit there?" Weng told the crowd through the loudspeaker. Senior Bangkok Bank executives have also been accused of encroaching on forest-reserve land in Khao Soi Dao forest in Chanthaburi province that is now a golf course. Even magazines like Thailand Tatler flaunt the special relationship between Prem and the bank's owner. In its latest list of 500 famous hi-so people, Prem is listed as enjoying "the backing of his friends, including [bangkok Bank] banker Chatri Sophonpanich". The bank, along with at least three other banks in the Silom Road strip from Soi Convent to the Narathiwat-Silom intersection were shut along with other businesses. However, one Bangkok Bank staffer, by the name of Vorajit, did not appear disturbed by the rally. He stood in front of the main entrance to the bank, heavily guarded by police officers and security guards, to chat with his colleagues while observing the protest. "They don't really threaten us. They're just on stage," Vorajit said. "I'm not afraid. They're not really pressuring us. It's more like a show of force for them." With nearly 3,000 demonstrators gathering by late afternoon, the show of force was not that impressive, but the hatred and risk of violence is there, lurking just beneath the surface as the crowd and its leaders gear up towards Thaksin Shinawatra's judgement day next Friday. Meanwhile, Santi Vilassakdanont, president of the Federation of Thai Industries, said he did not expect the red shirts' rally outside the bank's head office to turn violent. He viewed peaceful street protests as an indicator of Thailand's democratic progress. Thira Abhaiwongse, vice president of Bangkok Bank, insisted that the bank's management had no connections with the Khao Soi Dao golf course in Chanthaburi as alleged by the red shirts. Quote
Gaybutton Posted February 20, 2010 Author Posted February 20, 2010 This is great for tourism. The odd thing is I read an article somewhere claiming that all of this has had no particular effect on tourist numbers. Of course you never know whether they're telling the truth, but judging from the numbers of people I see, they very well may be right. Traffic in Pattaya has been much heavier than usual lately. We'll have to see what kind of effect this will have on tourism. The tourist industry has already had enough problems. Meanwhile, there still has been no effect on the exchange rates. I think if the protests escalate into violence, that's when we may see some sort of collapse in Thailand. At least this time they've waited until the major part of high season is coming to an end. One thing is for sure, even though the protests in Bangkok usually take place in areas that have no particular effect on the gay areas, I'm certainly not going to Bangkok at least until whatever occurs blows over. That's not because I would be afraid to go to Bangkok. It's because I anticipate even worse traffic problems than usual and police checks on the road and within Bangkok every fourteen seconds. For the time being, I'm staying put. Throughout the coup and other protest demonstration brouhahas, in Pattaya you never would have known much of anything was going on. Even when the Red-Shirts disrupted that meeting in Pattaya, unless you were within that area and the surrounding vicinities, you still didn't encounter much of a problem. At least I never did. But if this nonsense escalates into violence, maybe this time it will be a different story. All any of us can do is sit back and watch the show. As selfish as this might be, if whatever happens causes the exchange rate to move in our favor, I would have no objection to that aspect of the situation. Quote
PattayaMale Posted February 20, 2010 Posted February 20, 2010 Remember w2k? The world was to fall apart because computers would not recognize a date past 99 (1999). Remember the build up, the anxiety? Well I think this is how Pattaya and Thailand will be affected. But I have taken 3 million baht out of my Bangkok Bank account.....just in case! Quote
macaroni21 Posted February 20, 2010 Posted February 20, 2010 I recently came across a commentary article, quoting some Thai academics, that said, in a nutshell, the judges are acutely aware of the political implications/risks of whatever decision they are going to make. Thus a likely verdict would be a one that gives something to each side - there'll be no clear winner or loser. There will be some seizure of assets, but not all. What likelihood of this split verdict, of course I can't predict. What effect on the various political camps, I can't predict either. But it's saying that everything possible will be done to achieve a "fizzling out" solution rather than provoke a greater crisis. Quote
Gaybutton Posted February 20, 2010 Author Posted February 20, 2010 Here are a couple updates from the BANGKOK POST: _____ UDD Mass Rally Could Hit Tourism 20/02/2010 The planned mass anti-government demonstration late this month by the red-shirt people group could have negative impact on the tourism sector, Prakit Chin-amornpong, Chairman of Thai Hotels Association, said on Saturday. “Some countries, including England, Belgium, Germany, Canada, Australia and Japan had already advised their citizens to avoid traveling to rally sites for safety reason”, Mr. Prakit said. Foreign tourists, especially Chinese, might refrain from visiting Thailand as they fear the demonstration would turn to violence, he added. The chairman said the number of tourist visiting the country in January increased from the same month last year by 17.5 per cent to 1.5 million. This year would be a golden year of Thailand’s tourism sector, if there in no unrest, because the world’s economy recovering and more foreign arrivals are expected. UDD leader Jatuporn Pronphan announced on Friday that the mass rally will be held after Feb 26, the judgment day on Thaksin assets case. UDD leaders would meet to discuss exact date. ____________________ PAD Will Accept Court Ruling (** The PAD is the Yellow-Shirts - opposed to Thaksin) 20/02/2010 The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) will accept court ruling and will not stage any rally even if the court rules not to seize assets of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his family, PAD core leader Phiphob Dhongchai insisted. “PAD will accept the court verdict and will not make any political move as it could be cited to incite violence”, Mr. Phiphob said on Saturday afternoon. He was confident that the government is capable of keeping the situation under control. However, he warned the government of the third party which wants to provoke unrest in the country. The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions will on Feb 26 give verdict on whether to confiscate 76.6 billion baht in assets of Thaksin and his family. Quote
Guest fountainhall Posted February 22, 2010 Posted February 22, 2010 Thus a likely verdict would be a one that gives something to each side - there'll be no clear winner or loser. There will be some seizure of assets, but not all Whatever the court actually believes should happen, my hope is that macaroni21 is correct. It would be typically Thai to cobble together a compromise in the expectation that it might defuse what otherwise could be a really nasty scenario. Quote
