Is Another Coup Imminent?

[Gaybutton]

The following appears in THE NATION:

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Army Determined to Prevent Bloodshed and a Coup

 

December 29, 2009

 

As the political turbulence bubbles with the red shirts' threat to oust the government, Army chief General Anupong Paochinda has stepped in to pour cold water on the rival camps.

While Anupong's remarks appeared to be the usual pledge not to stage a coup, he did make a significant point by saying "I am confident there will be no coup because I will not allow the situation to reach that point [to warrant military intervention]".

 

Thailand has experienced a number of military interventions. Before each coup in the past, top military leaders would echo one another vowing not to grab power. Then soldiers would march out of their barracks to take over the seat of government.

 

Unlike past commanders, Anupong has reinforced his no-coup mantra with a firm commitment to deny himself a pretext to seize power.

 

When General Sonthi Boonyaratglin was the dark horse who became Army chief in 2005, he was a low-key soldier harbouring no political ambitions. But the fractious politics between then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his yellow-shirt opponents swept him into the centre of the power struggle.

 

The 2006 coup took place before a backdrop of unprecedented turmoil. Sonthi might have had good reason to clean the political slate in order to bring about a fresh start.

 

But mistakes were made, often despite the best of intentions. The power seizure did not end animosity but may have deepened it. Key players opted to settle old scores rather than overcome the polarisation.

 

The yellow shirts continue to crusade against what they see as the evils of Thaksin. The former PM has insisted, in turn, on flaunting his popularity even though his leadership brought about social divisions of a kind unseen in Thai history.

 

Thaksin's army of red shirts have fought with no holds barred to pave the way for him to come back.

 

As rival camps gear up for a showdown next year, the military has become a wild card which could either be a stabilising force - or a weight to tip the political equation.

 

Anupong has made it clear he sees his job as a stabiliser. He will neither tolerate politically-motivated violence nor let the situation deteriorate into bloodshed in the streets.

 

Reading his message between the lines, the military will likely apply pre-emptive pressure, in whatever form it takes to do the job short of power seizure, to prevent a repeat of the 2006 coup.

 

Anupong's message is particularly noteworthy when coupled with the New Year remarks by chief royal adviser General Prem Tinsulanonda.

 

Prem reminded the top brass they are duty-bound to ensure His Majesty's happiness. The King said in his birthday speech that his happiness hinges on the prosperity, security and normalcy in the country.

 

In light of the polarisation, normalcy is the operative word in the royal speech. Prem and Anupong envision the military role as a key to rein in political animosity.

 

How the military leaders will go about their job remains a matter for speculation. In the 1980s, the military once successfully played a stabilising role to steer the country out of half-baked democracy.

 

In light of the military determination to safeguard normalcy, Thaksin and allies such as Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Panlop Pinmanee, Weng Tojirakarn and Khattiya Sawasdipol, ought to rethink their strategy to grab power by mobilising the red shirts to drive out the government.

 

The message is loud and clear - fight within the political system. Thaksin, the red shirts, the yellow shirts and parties concerned should have realised by now that almost five years of political conflict have got us nowhere.

[Guest fountainhall]

"The message is loud and clear - fight within the political system"

I simply cannot see that happening. Yesterday afternoon I was returning home in a taxi when the driver thanked me for wearing a pink shirt - it being Monday. He then sniggered and waved a piece of bright red cloth, muttering something about Thaksin. Switching to fractured English, he pointed out other red items in his cab and repeated over and over that Abhisit is "now the Mafia". This man "loved" Thaksin with a fervour that shocked me. Perhaps I have just never been so close to a red-shirt before. Whatever, I can not see this man working within the political system in a month of Sundays.

[Guest Oogleman]

General Panlop has declared he will lead the new years red shirt rallies. Many other army officers have joined the red shirt groupings.

 

We might see a coup within the army. i.e Paojinda arrests all the possible troublemakers within the ranks under some special law or lese majeste thing to protect the high institution or somebody gets rid of Paojinda.

 

I think it will be very hard to stop the red movement now. The police are powerless and disorganised. Its simply a matter of positioning by senior figures before they take to the streets. I can actually see the army being attacked much more than in april if they come onto the streets.

 

How does it all end? A brutal military crackdown with mass arrests in the middle of the night supported by Abhisit for national security reasons or Abhisit resigns, the reds win the elections and you know who comes back.

 

A military coup would really solve nothing.

[Guest fountainhall]

I think it will be very hard to stop the red movement now

I have to agree. In all this mess, there's one thing I completely fail to comprehend. Why is it that the government permits a convicted felon to run rings around the Prime Minister and his party, grab all the headlines and destabilise the country? Why is he permitted sound and video links to address rallies? Government requires leadership, a quality sadly lacking so far in Abhisit. No matter how deep-rooted pro-Thaksin feelings, the government could do a lot more to reduce his effectiveness. But it does nothing! I thought all governments were paranoid about getting re-elected. Unless it does something quickly, Abhisit will vanish into obscurity in less than a year.

[fedssocr]

well, I think the government is waiting out the court rulings. They are hoping that once the courts agree to let the country keep Thaksin's billions that he will be wounded enough to stop some of his shenanigans.

 

I have also wondered why they "allow" him to phone in and do his video links. I think ultimately the answer is they simply are not able stop him from doing so technologically speaking. If they could keep him quiet I think they would.

 

The government missed an opportunity early on to try and win over some of Thaksin's followers. Now they are more hardened than ever. Of course the other side is not going to sit quietly by if/when he comes back to power.

 

I have long thought that they could set a trap for Thaksin and his enormous ego. Let him run things and fail. And then see what the disillusioned masses do in response.

[Guest tdperhs]

I thought all governments were paranoid about getting re-elected. Unless it does something quickly, Abhisit will vanish into obscurity in less than a year.

In Thailand it is not paranoia. The current government could not get elected.

 

The prevailing attitude in the capital reflects the philosophy of the first Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, John Jay, who said, "The country should be run by the people who own it." Outside of Bangkok, especially in the rural areas, they have some notion that this is a democratic country.

 

I live in the boonies and, while I do not express my opinion about politics, I do listen. I have yet to see a copy of The Nation in English or Thai in this town.

[Guest]

I doubt much would change if there is a coup. The one thing they need to do is take Taksin out & hopefully leave behind a more reasonable red shirt faction so the opposition is credible.

 

[The UK could benefit from a coup. In England more people voted Conservative at the last election, but the boundaries are so out of date that Labour got about 90 more seats. Then they send MPs in from Wales & Scotland to vote on matters which do not affect those regions. So we have a completely incompetent government not elected by the population of England. Not much better than Thailand really.]

[Guest luvthai]

The only thing you can depend on with the government is that when they say one thing the opposite will happen.

[Bob]

So we have a completely incompetent government not elected by the population of England. Not much better than Thailand really

 

As a yank, perhaps I shouldn't comment on the UK government but I do believe your hyperbole is a bit too much. In spite of some gerrymandering of the lines occasionally, democracy is still alive and well in both the UK and the US. And while we can certainly point out some incompetency in any government, it's a far cry from the ineptitude of the Thai government.

[Guest fountainhall]

I have also wondered why they "allow" him to phone in and do his video links. I think ultimately the answer is they simply are not able stop him from doing so technologically speaking. If they could keep him quiet I think they would

I am a technical novice, but I cannot believe it is impossible to block an incoming signal, the more so when it is all announced well in advance. Even if the frequency or whatever carries the signal were to be changed just prior to transmission, I'm certain it could still be blocked - if the government so wished. After all, they block tens of thousands of porn sites whenever they want (although I realise that's somewhat easier since it's the providers who have to do the blocking).

[Guest fountainhall]

The current government could not get elected

I agree. But since it is the de facto government with an election year coming up, you'd expect it to be working overtime to please the mass of the electorate and at least get some more votes. This one seems so lethargic it must be preparing quietly for oblivion.

[Guest Oogleman]

I agree. But since it is the de facto government with an election year coming up, you'd expect it to be working overtime to please the mass of the electorate and at least get some more votes. This one seems so lethargic it must be preparing quietly for oblivion.

 

 

It probably plans to have Puea Thai dissolved before the election so there will be no opposition. Happened twice already - why not go for a hat trick?

[Gaybutton]

I have also wondered why they "allow" him to phone in and do his video links.

I don't think they would stop him even if they could. My guess is they feel that Thaksin has so much support that the reaction to stopping him would be violent and they would find themselves having to deal with rioting and bloodshed. I think they probably feel that suppression of the call-ins, etc, would do them more harm than good.

 

Convicted felon or not, Thailand seems to be split right down the middle on the Thaksin issue, and plenty on each side are willing to resort to violence to if they have to.

 

Obviously, Thaksin has no intention of giving up his quest to return to Thailand and possibly becoming a dictator if he can. I hope the issue doesn't escalate into a civil war, but I can envision that happening in the end. I hope it doesn't come to that, but one way or another, sooner or later, I think it's all going to come to a head. I don't foresee Thaksin and the issues surrounding him eventually just fading away. I think something is going to happen, but just what, when, and how far it will go is anybody's guess.

[Guest]

As a yank, perhaps I shouldn't comment on the UK government but I do believe your hyperbole is a bit too much. In spite of some gerrymandering of the lines occasionally, democracy is still alive and well in both the UK and the US. And while we can certainly point out some incompetency in any government, it's a far cry from the ineptitude of the Thai government.

 

The British Labour party has been borrowing like crazy during the boom years & is now borrowing over 10% of gdp each year. That is EXTREMELY inept. The last Labour goverment was bailed out by the IMF in the 1970s & the only thing stopping a repeat is the prospect of an election in May 2010.

 

We have free speech (mostly), but the main broadcaster has it's top management appointed directly by the government & as the place is stuffed full of left wing journalists. They promote the idea of state monopolies ahead of free enterprise & consumer freedom.

 

Thai government might be a mess, but we're not that far ahead in the UK.

 

However Thailand does need a permanent solution to the Taksin problem.

[Guest globalwanderer]

There needs to be a solution to the Thaksin 'issue'. However do not underestimate the current government. Many of the coalition who jumped the Thaksin ship know that if Thaksin returns they are doomed. Meanwhile popular policies are delivered... We now have Abhisit funded streetlamps in the village. Let the other things filter through like refinancing of loan shark debt (without having to prove the debt), extra holidays etc. Let Thaksin's friend in Cambodia stir it up a bit more. That been said, if it's not handled correctly then there could be civil war, but my guess is that that will only happen if Thaksin pushes it there. The problem is that he cares about his frozen millions, not his country of birth.