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More Political Violence Predicted for Thailand

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Here we go again, folks. Today, the 46th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, Thailand once again predicts political upheaval in Thaksin's efforts to regain power. If nothing else, the man is persistent.

 

The following appears in THE NATION:

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Fierce Political Battles Brewing

 

Published on November 22, 2009

 

Ex-intelligence chief warns of violence as Thaksin and his allies might unleash all their might to topple govt

 

Political tensions are building to danger point as fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra steps up his struggle to regain power over the next several months, an intelligence expert and political observers warned yesterday.

 

Serious political confrontation - and possibly violence - could erupt during the upcoming months when Thaksin and his allies inside Parliament and on the streets employ an arsenal of tactics in a bid to effect a change in government, they said.

 

Pummarat Thaksadipong, former director of the National Intelligence Agency, said that given the recent movements of the Thaksin camp, "this upcoming festive season is unlikely to be the same for Thais".

 

The ex-leader was expected to "make his heaviest blow with the use of all the means he's got", Pummarat said.

 

Thaksin's allies who are MPs would disrupt the work of Parliament, and those who are protest leaders would instigate hatred against the government and possibly incite violence, he said.

 

The goal was to force the government to dissolve the House of Representatives before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders rules on a corruption case against Thaksin, he said.

 

As much as Bt76 billion of Thaksin's assets rides on the verdict, which is expected sometime next month.

 

"Politics over the next three months, up to February, will see the fiercest fight between the two sides. Thaksin will try to use all means possible in his bid to return to power. And there is a tendency that violence may be used. This is the intelligence I have received," Pummarat said.

 

Senator Paiboon Nititawan said violence could explode as it did in April when Thaksin's supporters stage street protests again late this month.

 

"The aim is to cause violence and deaths. But in the April incident, the attempt failed because there were no deaths," he said, referring to the Songkran riots. "Now all the actors from the April incident have come back."

 

Leaders of the pro-Thaksin red shirts said earlier that the anti-government rally would continue until the government collapsed.

 

Senator Kamnoon Sithisamarn said he was convinced next month would be a "really difficult period" |for politics, starting with the red shirts' rally late this month.

 

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will chair a meeting of security agencies this Wednesday to discuss measures to deal with the impending rally by the red shirts, a security source said.

 

Besides Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of security affairs, Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, top military brass and acting police chief General Patheep Tanprasert will attend, the source said.

 

"It remains unclear whether the government will invoke the Internal Security Act. There is a concern the imposition could affect celebrations for His Majesty the King's birthday," the source said.

 

The rally is not expected to turn violent, as there are cracks within the red-shirt movement, which is now divided into three factions, he added.

 

"It appears the rally is simply aimed at causing headaches for the government and the military," he said.

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