Are you better off today than 4 yrs ago- Americans have short memories

[floridarob]

[Goober]

Stinky let a deadly virus into our country, said he had it all under control, and then shut down the country.

[EmmetK]

Actually, Americans have accurate memories. More specifically, they have buyer's remorse as reflected in the first of the post-SOTU polls. 
Following Dementia Joe's disastrous (regardless of what the fawning left-wing media like MSNBC, WaPo, NYTimes, etc. have to say) SOTU address, the poll, like every other poll shows the senile old coot trailing badly again.:

Forbes/Harris has it Trump +4 in a 2-person race, but more importantly Trump +6 in a 5-person race
And deservedly so, Dementia Joe Biden's approval rating is in the toilet - 37%.
https://harrisx.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/HarrisX-Overnight-Poll-State-of-the-Union-3.11.2024.pdf

Time for a diaper change for Alan Lichtman.....  lmfao 😁

 

 

[Goober]

2 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Actually, Americans have accurate memories. More specifically, they have buyer's remorse as reflected in the first of the post-SOTU polls. 
Following Dementia Joe's disastrous (regardless of what the fawning left-wing media like MSNBC, WaPo, NYTimes, etc. have to say) SOTU address, the poll, like every other poll shows the senile old coot trailing badly again.:

Forbes/Harris has it Trump +4 in a 2-person race, but more importantly Trump +6 in a 5-person race
And deservedly so, Dementia Joe Biden's approval rating is in the toilet - 37%.
https://harrisx.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/HarrisX-Overnight-Poll-State-of-the-Union-3.11.2024.pdf

Time for a diaper change for Alan Lichtman.....  lmfao 😁

 

 

I'm so glad you're ok and posting. Whenever I read one of the many reports of a MAGAt getting arrested for some unspeakable and heinous crime, I always hope the culprit isn't a member of this forum. This story should come as no surprise to any of this forums participants:

https://nypost.com/2024/03/10/us-news/ala-republican-politico-charged-with-sexual-torture-murder/

[Bingo T Dog]

On 3/12/2024 at 4:39 PM, EmmetK said:

Actually, Americans have accurate memories. More specifically, they have buyer's remorse as reflected in the first of the post-SOTU polls. 
Following Dementia Joe's disastrous (regardless of what the fawning left-wing media like MSNBC, WaPo, NYTimes, etc. have to say) SOTU address, the poll, like every other poll shows the senile old coot trailing badly again.:

Forbes/Harris has it Trump +4 in a 2-person race, but more importantly Trump +6 in a 5-person race
And deservedly so, Dementia Joe Biden's approval rating is in the toilet - 37%.
https://harrisx.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/HarrisX-Overnight-Poll-State-of-the-Union-3.11.2024.pdf

Time for a diaper change for Alan Lichtman.....  lmfao 😁

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/stock-market-today-live.html  Remembering the Trump days 4 years ago.

[stevenkesslar]

On 3/12/2024 at 1:39 PM, EmmetK said:

Time for a diaper change for Alan Lichtman.....  lmfao 😁

Did facts abuse you, @EmmetK?

Lichtman and his Russian seismologist buddy came up with a system for using historical patterns - aka FACTS - to determine outcomes.  It has worked like a charm since 1984.  Lichtman has repeatedly stunned observers.  He did so in 1983 when he predicted over a year in advance that Reagan would win.  He did so most recently in September 2016 when he predicted Trump would win.  Even your cult leader showed respect for facts by writing him a note.  He didn't say, "Professor, you need a diaper change."  He said, "Good call, professor."

Did facts abuse you, @EmmetK?

Lichtman tells a story about how Lee Atwater invited him to the White House after he predicted Reagan would win in 1983.  Atwater did not say, "Professor, you need a diaper change."  He asked if it would make a difference if Reagan did not run again.  Atwater was associated with HW Bush.  So Lichtman did not say this.  But I assume it could be Atwater knew this kind of thinking would undercut any chance that Reagan would clear the way for his Veep to run instead in 1984.  Lichtman said that Reagan NOT running in 1984 would hurt Republicans.  They lose incumbency, for sure, which is one his 13 keys.  Depending on how the primary went, it could also cause a party fight.  This was BEFORE Lichtman predicted correctly in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.  So he was good enough for Lee Atwater as a rookie.  But he's not good enough for you, @EmmetK.

That Atwater 1984 story resonates, as Lichtman himself has said recently, because we've seen this movie before.  Reagan was too old.  He may well have had early symptoms of Alzheimers, we now know.  Yet running as an incumbent and avoiding a party fight worked out well for Republicans.  By comparison, not having an incumbent and having a huge fight that split the party is precisely what turned two Keys against Democrats in 2016, opening the door for Trump.  Had Obama been able to run for a third time, he likely would have won.

Did facts abuse you, @EmmetK?

David Broder of the WaPo felt a bit like you do, @EmmetK.   In 1983, polls showed Mondale beating Reagan by double digits.  So it makes sense that at the start of 1984 Broder, a very wise journalist, could give rookie Lichtman this polite dig:

Quote

The first column of the year is the one in which to go out on a limb. Being a coward, I wanted company on that journey, so I called Allan J. Lichtman of American University. Lichtman is the political historian I wrote about a couple of years ago. In the spring of 1981, he sat down with Volodia Keilis-Borok of Moscow's Academy of Sciences, a specialist in earthquake analysis, and together they contrived a formula that they said would have predicted every presidential election in the last 120 years. I am not joking. This really happened.

Another thing that really happened is Reagan won in a landslide.  Lichtman predicted, accurately, that Reagan would be "very strong".  Only 2 of his 13 Keys were turned against Reagan, fewer than any other election he has correctly predicted in advance.

Did facts abuse you, @EmmetK?

Lichtman has said, with reason, that the last thing to pay attention to are polls.  Especially polls this far in advance.  And yet you are convinced that you know better than Lichtman, @EmmetK.  Your cult leader will win in a landslide, you believe.  Because right now he is, according to the RCP average, two points ahead of Biden.  Lichtman is demonstrating, again, how history and facts work.  You are demonstrating, yet again, how the cult brain works, @EmmetK..

Did facts abuse you, @EmmetK?

I posted that already in another thread.  But instead of going through the math of how it leans toward a Biden victory in November, I'll ask three questions.

1.  The trend since Summer 2022 is that fewer and fewer people say thing are getting worse.  The AWOL recession has not appeared, inflation is 3 %, the stock market keeps hitting all time highs, middle class average net worth is up 30 % in the last four years, and rising.  Any reason to think the trend won't continue through November?

2.  If the trend continues, the Trump-Biden match in 2020 suggests Biden will win handily.  It is a fact that for 20 years, in every Presidential race, people who say they are better off than four years ago vote about 3 to 1 to keep the party in power.  People who says they are worse off vote about 3 to 1 to throw out the party in power.  This of course makes common sense.  The strange thing about 2020 is that people who say they're just as well off usually split their vote 50/50.  In 2020 they did not.  The people who were no better or worse off than in 2016 voted 2 to 1 against Trump.  That suggests that there was something about Trump they really didn't like.  Could it be?

3.  In 2016, 41 % of voters said their financial situation was "about the same" as four year ago.  They voted 47 % Clinton, 45 % Trump.  So even in a year when Trump was the new guy, and the change candidate, he could only get 45 % of that vote.  In 2020 Trump got 34 % of the "about the same" as four years ago vote. If he gets 34 % of that vote again in 2024, he is toast.  If he gets 45 %, like in 2016 when he was the change candidate, it will be a very close race.  Which is more likely?

These are the questions that I think will determine who wins.  But I agree with wise Lichtman.  The poll above shows the economic trends are on Biden's side now.  History is on Biden's side, at the moment.  Trump will have to convince people that he can make things better, like they were in 2020.  When voters fired him.  For some strange reason, I just feel that's less than a sure thing.

But you know it all, @EmmetK.  I guess facts must have abused you.  Now you're done with them, and you're just into the truth.  Well, Truth Social at least.  😲