The Year 2020

[spoon]

3 hours ago, vinapu said:

regular ' common" flu is killing few hundred people a day worldwide and we barely blink over it

Funny. Just read an article spelling out this exact thing. Flu had kill 5000 infant in the US in 2020 alone. And yet people are worried more about wuhan hitting home.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/danvergano/coronavirus-cases-deaths-flu

[Jasper]

[spoon]

Malaysia had issued ban for wuhan and hubei travellers to malaysia recently. Whether its necessary or not, its what the gov did after being pressured by their opponent.

[anddy]

8 hours ago, ggobkk said:

Sky News UK is reporting Bangkok had 22,000 visitors from Wuhan in January. Also reported that a Thailand had more cases of Coronavirus than any country other than China. 

Is sky news a tabloid-type outlet? That sounds like sensationalism: More cases than any other, OMG SOOO MANY!!! Truth is, it's still only a handful (as anywhere outside China at this point), only in China are the cases measured in the thousands (and even that is minuscule in a country of 1.x billion, plus not spread throughout the country). Of course, appropriate measures, both by officials and individuals) should be taken to prevent further spread given it's elevated risk relative to the common flu, but I consider my personal risk of getting infected negligible. 

[reader]

8 hours ago, spoon said:

Funny. Just read an article spelling out this exact thing. Flu had kill 5000 infant in the US in 2020 alone. And yet people are worried more about wuhan hitting home.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/danvergano/coronavirus-cases-deaths-flu

The link provides a lot of interesting data but the number of infants killed by the flu this year is actually 54.

From link above:

"To put the risk in more context, the current US flu season has killed 54 infants so far, according to CDC. And in the first two weeks of 2020, the flu has killed more than 5,000 people in the US, mostly through associated pneumonia."

[spoon]

16 minutes ago, reader said:

The link provides a lot of interesting data but the number of infants killed by the flu this year is actually 54.

From link above:

"To put the risk in more context, the current US flu season has killed 54 infants so far, according to CDC. And in the first two weeks of 2020, the flu has killed more than 5,000 people in the US, mostly through associated pneumonia."

Thanks for pointing out a mistake. It is 5000 total and 54 infants. Silly me. Good thing i put a reference to the article. But the point still stands. Regular flu is the reason for a lot more death in the states for year 2020, even more than wuhan virus did in china. I guess fear of the unknown fueled by media makes it worst than it sounds

[reader]

Point well taken: it's easy to get fixated on the Corona virus because it dominates the news cycle. The common flu (and associated pneumonia) claims a huge number of lives world-wide each year.

The World Health Organization chart and map (see link below) plots deaths from flu and pneumonia world wide as of 2017.

Here's a sampling of the rankings of nations that may be of interest to readers of this forum:

24 - Philippines

53 - Laos

54 - Malaysia 

56 - Singapore

57-  Thailand

62 - India

67 - Cambodia

78 - Myanmar

90 - Japan

101 -Russia

117 - Vietnam

119- U.K.

131- S. Korea

147-  U.S.

148- China

162- New Zealand

163- Germany

169- Australia

170- Canada

See complete chart and map at

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza-pneumonia/by-country/

[ggobkk]

My 2020 prediction of a drop in Chinese tourists leading to a drop in hotel rates coupled with my later post about the number of tourists from Wuhan May have sidetracked the topic from  a somewhat light hearted look into the future. Sorry.

but...the sidetrack is interesting with the travel chart and Reader’s post. 
 

note to anddy - SkyNews is decently reputable and it was reporting an interview with the Thai tourism minister who noted Thailand had x number on coronavirus infections.

 

[anddy]

While it is true that the common flu causes vastly more deaths, it is also true that it affects vastly more people, as in millions upon millions. The point is that the key to the "hype" around the coronavirus (and SARS at the time) is the mortality rate, which is very low for the common flu.

"very low" multiplied by millions of patients still gives a rather high looking number of deaths.

With corona, a LOW number of patients will give a high number of deaths because the mortality rate is about 3% currently.

If you get the common flu, you are VERY unlikely to die from it, with corona you have a statistical chance of 3% to die (was about 7% with SARS).

So you really
(a) don't want to get it as an individual
(b) prevent it from further spreading as a government

Luckily, at this point the chances of (a) are so low and individually preventable that it poses no real risk to the general population and us as individuals. The common flu is a HUGE risk to contract, but negligible risk to die, hence no panic or hype or drastic containment measures. 

Bottom line: containment measures are necessary and warranted, individual panic and fear is not.

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, anddy said:

at this point

Those are the key words.  At present, this virus is widespread in China and not elsewhere, as far as we know.

If it does spread further, that is the time to become more concerned.

 

Also, anyone coming to Thailand might want to bring hand gel and facemasks with them.  One has to search for hand gel and the packaging is not as convenient as those 50p bottles on sale in the UK.  As far ad I can see, better quality facemasks are available in the UK too.   Many on sale here don't even state what standard they comply with.

[reader]

If you intend to wear a face mask, it would indeed be wise to bring them with you. As of yesterday, they were unavailable in many Bangkok outlets, including the Chula Pharmacy on Rama 4 that ranks among the better suppliers to locals and the nearby medical community. They told a friend that they were awaiting delivery of new supplies.

In many US cities, they are also unavailable as the Corona virus scare multiplies.

[eurasian]

Please keep in mind additional to facemasks wearing eyeglasses is recommended too as virus may also infect through the eyes 

[spoon]

1 hour ago, anddy said:

While it is true that the common flu causes vastly more deaths, it is also true that it affects vastly more people, as in millions upon millions. The point is that the key to the "hype" around the coronavirus (and SARS at the time) is the mortality rate, which is very low for the common flu.

"very low" multiplied by millions of patients still gives a rather high looking number of deaths.

With corona, a LOW number of patients will give a high number of deaths because the mortality rate is about 3% currently.

If you get the common flu, you are VERY unlikely to die from it, with corona you have a statistical chance of 3% to die (was about 7% with SARS).

It is still too early to have a good sample size for any statistic on wuhan virus to be reliable. Right now, only those severe cases actually goes to clinic/hospital to get treatment while the mild case usually didnt go check or assume its is just common cold, or fear to go check as they do not want to be quarantine unless they need treatment. So 3% statistic now couldve been much lower if everyone who has been infected actually get tested. 

Common flu infected millions, while wuhan virus infected thousands, also says a lot that this virus isnt as infectious as common flu, otherwise we could probably see much more cases as well. Again, still too early to say how much the real number of cases people got infected as not all with symptom get tested. Majority cases outside china can be directly trace to Wuhan/hubei area, and very rarely we here the human to human infection occurs outside china. We do have cases in vietnam, japan, and german though of human to huma infection, and again can be traced to having recent contact with those who have been to wuhan area. To be honest, this time around, most area, even china are better prepared than the many outbreak before. The best way to avoid this virus thankfully is similar with how to avoid common flu anyway, so from that perspective, follow the guideline on hygene and we should be fine.

[reader]

From Coconuts Bangkok

Beijing talks Thailand out of evacuating Wuhan as virus transmissions reported outside China

Thailand has shelved plans to evacuate its citizens from the Chinese city where a viral outbreak was first detected at Beijing’s urging as confirmed infections in the kingdom rose to 14.

Tana Weskosith of the Foreign Affairs Ministry told reporters that China is confident it can look after the students and workers trapped inside the Wuhan exclusionary zone that has expanded to essentially quarantine at least 50 million people.

“China has absolute restrictions on entry and exit from Wuhan and does not allow anyone to travel in and out in order to strictly control the spread of the coronavirus. Thailand has to strictly comply with such a measure. Therefore, we cannot fly the C-130 plane to pick up our people, but, what we have to do is to rehearse the guidelines and prepare measures to be ready if and when the evacuation plan is allowed by China,” Tana said.

Somehow those strict measures didn’t stop Japan and the United States from evacuating their citizens. About 200 Japanese evacuees landed safely in Tokyo this morning; the Americans airlifted 240 people.

The Thai response has invited strong criticism and calls for tighter travel restrictions. Five million residents of Wuhan, China, left the city for Chinese New Year travel before travel was cut off, according to that city’s mayor. The government and military had announced a rescue plan following a viral plea from one of the students trapped there, who said they had insufficient food and wanted to come home.

Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong airlines have announced they would halve the number of flights to mainland China. The former will do so progressively starting tomorrow. Rival Hong Kong airlines said it would cut more than 200 of such flights until Feb. 11.

https://coconuts.co/bangkok/news/beijing-talks-thailand-out-of-evacuating-wuhan-as-virus-transmissions-reported-outside-china/

[anddy]

@z909 hand gel is available in small 50ml bottles at 7/11. Seen it there many times. May be sold out now, I don't know, but in principle it's there.

[vinapu]

10 hours ago, ggobkk said:

My 2020 prediction of a drop in Chinese tourists leading to a drop in hotel rates coupled with my later post about the number of tourists from Wuhan May have sidetracked the topic from  a somewhat light hearted look into the future.

 

2020 is not a future , it's behind the window now

[Guest]

Not all of the 7-elevens have hand gel.  I've been in several looking for it and eventually found it in the pharmacy section of a Big C.  Look for long enough and it can be found.  However, it's much easier to pick it up in Europe at fine retailers such as Lidl.

 

As for predictions:

For 2030, I "predict" the proportion of Thai workers in gogo bars will decrease, as the next generation have much higher incidence of obesity.  

Expect cashless payments to present a few challenges to society. I predict some resistance, as if every transaction becomes traceable, how do the police and other government bodies collect their bribes?   

 

 

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

Two held for sharing fake news on virus

Two people were arrested on Thursday in a crackdown on misleading information being posted on social media in relation to the new coronavirus, Digital Economy and Society (DES) Minister Buddhipongse Punnakanta said.

He said officials from the DES Ministry and the Royal Thai Police’s Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) obtained court warrants to search 15 locations and found six suspected cases related to fake news that have been causing fear and confusion.

Of the six suspects, two were charged under the 2017 Computer Crime Act’s Section 14 (2), he said. The charges were in relation to a false report about infections in Pattaya and an edited video clip of a Chinese man collapsing.

Section 14 (2) concerns the “uploading of false information into the computer system, which is bound to damage national security and cause public disorder”.

The minister said the Anti Fake News Centre, supervised by the DES Ministry, has received 7,587 items of suspected fake news from Saturday to Wednesday.

Most of them involved fake patients, the alleged scrapping of thermal screening at airports, allegations of the number of infections being covered up and claims that some products can kill the virus.

To counter the spread of fake news, he said the ministry was working with health authorities to produce easy-to-understand infographics for public distribution.

“When it comes to health, people will believe and share anything,” he said, urging people to check facts before they forward any content.

The minister said the Anti Fake News Centre, supervised by the DES Ministry, has received 7,587 items of suspected fake news from Saturday to Wednesday.

Most of them involved fake patients, the alleged scrapping of thermal screening at airports, allegations of the number of infections being covered up and claims that some products can kill the virus.

To counter the spread of fake news, he said the ministry was working with health authorities to produce easy-to-understand infographics for public distribution.

“When it comes to health, people will believe and share anything,” he said, urging people to check facts before they forward any content.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1847099/two-held-for-sharing-fake-news-on-viru

 

 

[vinapu]

7 hours ago, z909 said:

 

Expect cashless payments to present a few challenges to society. I predict some resistance, as if every transaction becomes traceable, how do the police and other government bodies collect their bribes?   

 

yes, 7/24 convenience and in time 7/24 surveillance. What we will do when on Feb 27-2027 Visa and Mastercard announce that  they will not accept charges from venues suspected of supporting prostitution  to be in line with similar bank policy from Aug 13-2026 refusing debit payment to the same.

I'm not sure even most honest of honest people will be  really that fond of all transaction being traceable .We may miss our freedom of spending our money way we wanted back in 2020, specially in view of HM government decree from May 25,  2029 banning UK citizens from buying  water  in plastic bottles worldwide.

 

[Guest]

A bad government has lots of new possibilities once cash is abolished.  Hence I use cash wherever possible.