Is 2024 "Dewey beats Biden"?

[stevenkesslar]

 

Biden Can Still Win — If He Runs Like Harry Truman

Great article.

I'm surprised there haven't been more stories like this.  Although one thing that is true about most media talking heads, left of right, is they usually go for the lazy and obvious analysis.  Trump leads!  Biden should quit!  So thinking about Harry Truman may be above their pay grade.

There have been endless variations of "2024 is 1980, and Joe Biden is Jimmy Carter" in right wing media.  God bless them and their denial of facts.

Here's the most important fact about why Biden is more like Truman than Carter.  In 1976, Carter beat Ford in part by saying the misery index was way too high.  In 1980, Reagan slaughtered Carter by saying it was now even higher.  Over 20 percent!  Right now the misery index is 6.8 percent, which is one point LOWER than the last day Trump was POTUS. 

Trump may have a hard time explaining why the economy was great under him, after all.  Repeal Obamacare, anyone?  Cut taxes for billionaires, anyone?  Wouldn't it be way more swell if our homes and stocks were worth less?  That argument just won't hold up.  Of course, Trump doesn't understand RISING net worth.  His is phony.  And about to go way down!

The "economy sucks" argument probably holds up best for Gen Z and some Millennials.  Who don't own homes or stocks, and are perhaps suffering relatively more from higher prices and interest rates.  And they mostly hate Trump.  They'll vote for Trump so that he can make abortion illegal everywhere, and make sure there can never ever be student debt relief?  Give me a break!  

Biden does need to Give Em Hell.  It turns out that when you are Giving People Hell, you do not look old and senile and feeble.  So one good reason for Biden to model himself on a populist like Truman is he won't look so God damn old.

Biden is in better shape than Truman, if we go by objective facts.  In both 2024 and 1948, most people said they did not like the incumbent President.  And Reason # 1 was higher prices.  In 1946, inflation peaked at 20 % just as people were voting.  The midterms were a wipeout for Democrats.  Which fed the idea that Democrats will have their heads chopped off in 1948.   In 2022 inflation peaked under 10 %, and was on the way down by November.  Which may be why Democrats did better than expected.  People of course don't like higher prices.  It's not clear that will stick on election day, though.   Just ask Harry Truman.

That's especially true if Biden runs a campaign based on economic populism, like Truman did.  Trump actually did cut taxes for billionaires like himself.  Biden actually did say working class women with kids should get tax credits so their kids can afford to play team sports.  It lifted half of the children in the US out of poverty for one year.  People can understand the differences.

In 1948 it was early days of The Cold War.  And no one could predict who would win.  In 2024 we have won the Cold War.  And Biden wants to keep Russia contained and help Ukraine.  Ronald Reagan would agree with Joe Biden, not Donald Trump.  The majority of people agree we should help Ukraine and not be weak and feeble with Putin. 

I'll keep repeating that Biden has a "Genocide Joe" problem with his base.  But as this article suggests, if and when Biden demands a ceasefire (Kamala Harris just did) that will help.  Biden needs to start giving Bibi hell, too.  If he wants to be POTUS in 2025.  As a lifetime Israel supporter, I strongly believe it is better for Israel.  Bibi is turning Israel into Apartheid Land, at best, and Genocide World, at worst.  It is not in the interest of Israel or the US to keep sliding into that abyss.  More dead Jews, anyone?

The one thing that was a little bit of a revelation to me in that article above is that as much as Stein and West are a curse, they are also kind of a blessing.  And Biden knows this, if anyone does.  In 2020 he won mostly because he religiously clung to the middle of the road, as best he could.  Yeah, 2020 was the most liberal Democratic primary ever.  But Biden always wanted to be the guy closer to the center.  He will do the same thing in Fall 2024.  And it will probably work, too.  He will attack his "dangerous" opponent on the right, Trump, and also his dangerous opponents on The Left.

Election Polls; 1948 and Today

That's a boring and long-winded look at 1948.  But, hey.  What am I if not boring and long-winded.  And, often, correct.  I do like facts.  Lots of them.

Truman's approval was 38 % around now in 1948.  All year long Dewey was beating him in the polls.  It's risky to compare 1948 polls to today.  But at the time Gallup and Roper and a few others were viewed as very credible pollsters.  To the point that the media at the time was saying we don't even need to hold an election.  Dewey won.  Kind of like @EmmetK insists Trump won already.  Poor thing!

There is one big difference between Trump and Dewey.  Trump is seen as far more dangerous.  I don't think @EmmetK and The Cult get that.  Democrats like me are partisan.  Duh!  But we can see facts.  The polls are telling us right now that most Democrats and Independents agree that both Biden and Trump are too old.  independents and Democrats also agree that Trump is too dangerous.  The Cult can't see that.  That is, of course, because they are in The Cult.

There is one fact in that 1948 poll that I think does suggest why Biden could lose.  And why he needs to run a Harry Truman campaign.

In 1948, by a 2 to 1 margin, people said the New Deal policies had done more good than harm.  People may have voted less for Truman, and more for FDR.  In 2024, as @EmmetK has correctly pointed out, Trump is winning the issues.  So far.  On the economy, people say (today) that Trump's policies did more good than harm.  And Biden's policies have done more harm than good.  And they don't mean lower prescription drug costs, or child tax credits.  They mean higher prices.

Biden needs to Give Trump Hell. 

Do we really want more tax cuts for the rich?  Do we really want to try to repeal Obamacare, again?  Do we really want more trade wars that will - what do tariffs do? - RAISE PRICES ON THE WORKING CLASS.  Is it better to have more billionaires with lower tax bills and twice as many poor Hispanic children?  Do we really want abortion illegal everywhere?  Do we really want a government policy of climate change denial?  Do we really want to let Bibi pave Gaza over with the blood of Palestinian women and children?  Do we really want Murderous Vlad to win in Ukraine?  Do we really want Trump governing from a prison cell, not the Oval Office?  Or, when Congress does something Trump doesn't like, should he just send his thugs over to break some more cops' bones?

That debate has not even begun.  I won't be surprised if Biden and Democrats win it.  Again.  Like in 2018.  And 2020.  And 2022.  And 2023.  And so far in 2024.

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

He'll have to be passionate and focused on just a couple of messages though.  He's also running against the ghost (charisma) of Obama.  I can't think of a box office smash staring Brad Pitt's father, even when running against a white Bill Cosby. 

[EmmetK]

9 hours ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

He'll have to be focused.....

Dementia Joe Biden focused?  lol. He hasn't been focused in years. He doesn't know his sister from his wife and he needs help just to put his diapers on every morning.

Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/joe-biden-age-election-2024-8ee15246

Whoa! The WSJ just found out what the rest of the world has known for years. Glad they “woke” up.
Actually, The WSJ was being charitable in saying that Dementia Joe is slipping. The more accurate description is that while all of the lights are on - no one is home..

Biden's decline is accelerating. He already has one foot in the grave.

Dementia Joe Biden's handlers and the fake news media can only try to cover up his slipping for a few more weeks until all of America sees the meds wear off and him fall flat during the debate. He will be exposed and replaced on the ticket before the DNC. They will have no choice other than to watch DJT win in a landslide. 

Trump 2024
MAGA

[stevenkesslar]

15 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Dementia Joe Biden focused?  lol. He hasn't been focused in years. He doesn't know his sister from his wife and he needs help just to put his diapers on every morning.

Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/joe-biden-age-election-2024-8ee15246

Whoa! The WSJ just found out what the rest of the world has known for years. Glad they “woke” up.
Actually, The WSJ was being charitable in saying that Dementia Joe is slipping. The more accurate description is that while all of the lights are on - no one is home..

Biden's decline is accelerating. He already has one foot in the grave.

Dementia Joe Biden's handlers and the fake news media can only try to cover up his slipping for a few more weeks until all of America sees the meds wear off and him fall flat during the debate. He will be exposed and replaced on the ticket before the DNC. They will have no choice other than to watch DJT win in a landslide. 

Trump 2024
MAGA

Our fact free friend not only has ZERO appreciation for facts.  @EmmetK also seems to have no appreciation for political nuance, or irony.  Most people who work on Capitol Hill have both.  So @EmmetK just absolutely fails to get it.  What a shocker! I suspect @EmmetK has not read the article, either.  Facts are not something he requires to think he knows anything.

That WSJ article is behind a pay wall, and I am not going to pay to read their bullshit.  The UK Mail version I posted seems to hit all the main points.  I'm guessing in more melodramatic terms than the staid WSJ.

The irony is that the two main sources of this article are either dead, politically.  Or they are alive thanks to Biden's Democrats.

Kevin McCarthy can say Biden has one foot in the grave all he wants.  But that is rich in irony.  McCarthy has both feet in the grave.  McCarthy is dead, politically.  He is a loser, just like Trump will be in November.  McCarthy, the loser with two feet in the grave, literally had to call Trump and bellow at him to call his MAGA attack dogs off before they literally killed McCarthy, or any of the cops they were beating the living shit out of.  So who the fuck is loser Kevin McCarthy to talk?  This is a joke.  

Mike Johnson is the other main source of the WSJ story about Biden being senile.  Johnson has turned to be far more pragmatic than I would have guessed, seeing as how he was an anti-LGBTQ ideologue as a back bencher.  Part of what I like about Johnson is he can cut deals with Biden on things like Ukraine aid.  And when the MAGA radicals like Marjorie "I Am Bat Shit Crazy" Greene and Matt "I Fuck Teen Girls" Gaetz try to kill Johnson politically, Biden and the Democrats save his ass.  So, again, who is Mike Johnson to speak about Biden being senile?  But for Biden and his well organized team, Johnson would also have both feet in the grave by now.  Who is he to pontificate about Biden?  What a joke!

All of this is rich in irony.  The politically dead or near dead, thanks to MAGA radicals who like to beat the shit out of cops, are the ones saying Biden has two feet in the grave.

And lets not even talk about DonaldTrump having one foot in a prison cell, unless his right wing SCOTUS ideologues bail his felon ass out.

[EmmetK]

It is very obvious to all open-minded voters that Dementia Joe's handlers, the DNC, and the fake news media  are concealing his mental decline/dementia. They parade him in public as little as possible and when they do allow him to make an appearance, they spend days trying to tell us that we didn't see what we obviously saw. They are pathetic corrupt animals who don't want to give up their malicious grip on America. Too bad, because they are about to lose it.
Though admittedly the democrats are hardly capable of governing and leading even when they are in perfect health.

I would suggest that Below Average Joe’s dementia is probably secondary to his stupidity, incompetence, congenital dishonesty, and corruption.

[JKane]

[RockyRoadTravel]

Biden keeps getting better polling news.  The Former President's hate is a powerful emotion, it's also exhausting for Americans and few people want to return to the Former President's complete incompetence (disregard, indifference) during the pandemic.  There's been real accomplishments over the last four years - imagine a President that actually delivered on infrastructure investments.  Did I want Biden to run again - no I didn't. And at the same time - credit where credit is due. Job growth is much stronger than under Trump. The stock market is higher. Trade deficit with China is decreasing, where it was increasing under Trump.  The USA government even made $500+ million dollars on trading in oil - sell high and buy low.