Trump gets the greatest verdicts. No one else gets verdicts like his. Many people tell him that.

[EmmetK]

 

There is a reason that Putin prefers Biden.

Probably the same reason that Putin waited for Trump to leave office before invading Ukraine (no doubt the same reason that Putin waited for Obama to take office before invading Crimea). Russia's troops stayed in Russia during Trump I. 

[stevenkesslar]

22 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

 

There is a reason that Putin prefers Biden.

Probably the same reason that Putin waited for Trump to leave office before invading Ukraine (no doubt the same reason that Putin waited for Obama to take office before invading Crimea). Russia's troops stayed in Russia during Trump I. 

Yup.  I sure believe what Vlad tells friendly journalists he calls in to tell them things he wants them to hear.

Proving once again you'll believe anything Trump says and support anything he does.  That's what a cult is all about.

Putin didn't have to invade any country or turn hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer when Trump was around.  Trump just gave him what he wanted.

You view Trump's weakness as strength and Biden's willingness to fight for our values as weakness.    That's what the MAGA cult is all about, too.  Weakness.  Lies.  Rot.

One thing the world learned from Tucker's cock sucking session interview with Vlad is that our sadistic and corrupt billionaire is as bad at lying and spin as he is good at genocide.  The fact that he has to announce he is for Biden simply underscores how he's doing everything he can to elect Trump.  And you will help him.

But if you believe Putin wants Biden for four more years than you also have to believe that Vlad is a friend of every journalist and opposition leader in Russia.  And that planes just accidentally explode in mid-flight.

[EmmetK]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

The fact that he has to announce he is for Biden simply underscores how he's doing everything he can to elect Trump.  And you will help him.

 

I don't think even you believe the blather and nonsense you write in your posts. Putin wants Biden to win so he can continue to roll thru Europe. He knows all that Dementia Joe will do is impose more meaningless sanctions. 
Fact: During Trump I, Russian troops remained in their barracks in Russia. It will be like that during Trump II.

And Trump doesn't need any help from Putin or me to get elected. He's doing pretty damn well on his own:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

And Trump is either leading or statistically tied in all of the toss-up states!!

And Trump is crushing the mentally-addled old fool among those willing to put their money where their mouths are:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

 

[stevenkesslar]

49 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

Fact: During Trump I, Russian troops remained in their barracks in Russia.

They preferred that.  Who wouldn't rather stay in their barracks than be turned into fertilizer. 

Fact:  as long as Trump was trashing NATO and dividing the US, which was giving Vlad everything he wanted, of course Vlad was happy.  If Trump is elected he'll give Ukraine away, to the extent he can, empower Putin, and weaken the US.

Trump is a weak Putin cock sucker.  He'd be a  convicted rapist other than it was proved in court that he couldn't get it up enough to actually rape.  The guy has issues.  He is weak.

52 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

And Trump doesn't need any help from Putin or me to get elected.

Putin helped Trump in 2016, whether Trump wanted his help or not.  See the Mueller report and all the Russians charged.  Putin didn't like Hillary, either.  Turns out he doesn't like people who challenge him.  When he can, he murders them.  including mass murder.  Putin does like cock suckers who try to please him.

Trump lost in 2020.

Trump is weak.

Trump is a loser.

Only weak losers end up being cock suckers for sadistic rulers like Putin who commit genocide.

[Goober]

13 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Only weak losers end up being cock suckers for sadistic rulers like Putin who commit genocide.

Stinky never said Putin had a wart on his dick. He said it felt like he did.

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JKane]

[Marc in Calif]

On 2/16/2024 at 5:17 PM, EmmetK said:

Kevin O' Leery [sic] from Shark Tank defended Trump

It's too bad that the expert defender Kevin O'Leary wasn't on Drumpf's defense team.

This illustrious legal mind would have won the case in Drumpf's favor. I'm sure of it! 

Meanwhile...

New York attorney general says she will go after Trump's real estate if he cannot pay civil fraud fine

New York State Attorney General Letitia James says she’s prepared to go after some of Donald Trump’s real estate holdings, including The Trump Building in lower Manhattan, if the former president cannot pay the nearly half-billion judgment handed down against him last week.

New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ordered Trump to pay $355 million and roughly another $100 million in pre-judgment interest for fraudulently inflating his net worth in order to secure more favorable loans....

“We are prepared to make sure that the judgment is paid to New Yorkers, and, yes, I look at 40 Wall St. each and every day,” the attorney general added.

40 Wall St. is the address of The Trump Building, a 72-story office tower the former president has owned since 1995....

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, EmmetK said:

And Trump is crushing the mentally-addled old fool among those willing to put their money where their mouths are:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

Yes, the RCP betting odds are a very reliable source.

Let's go over some odds.

In 2022 there was a 50 % chance that Murderous Vlad, when he was faced with a unified NATO and a POTUS committed to helping democracies like Ukraine, would decide to go ahead and launch a murderous genocide, anyway.  And he did.

Whereas you are right that Putin did not invade Ukraine while Trump was President.  That's because experts say there is only a 20 % chance Putin will be sadistic asshole when he has a compliant US President who trashes NATO and gives Vlad what he wants.

There are worse odds, though.  In 2016 Trump only had a 13 chance of being elected, according to the RCP betting odds.  Hillary had an almost 9 in 10 chance of winning.  So I wouldn't be so certain about Trump's 44 % chance of winning now.  Shit, that's less than 50/50.

Here's a slightly bitter pill for you, @EmmetK.  Trump is a dumb ass.  That said, he's a genius compared to you.  He knew Lichtman knows how to place good bets, and he congratulated him.  You're not smart enough to realize that, @EmmetK.   You bet on losing betting pools.

Good news is that no one can be more of a dumb ass than Ron DeSantis.  He went from a 35 % chance of winning a year ago to a 0 % chance today.  How do you do that?  

[Marc in Calif]

3 hours ago, EmmetK said:

And Trump is crushing the mentally-addled old fool among those willing to put their money where their mouths are...

In your desperation, you're now clowning around with betting odds as a predictor of election success -- more than nine months before the election.  🤡

The funniest thing about your poll? Michelle Obama is is in third place with 9% of the poll! 😎

Here's the truth about betting polls: 

A quick note on presidential election odds: this betting market often can act as a sort of wish fulfillment for people's political leanings. There is nothing that indicates Michelle Obama should have the third-best odds to win the 2024 presidential election, but that's the case. As you'll see below, she also has the second-best odds to win the 2024 Democratic nomination for president.

That's a reflection of how the money has come in on this particular market, as things can get kind of weird the further down the presidential election odds board you go. 

[stevenkesslar]

Good news, Emmet.

I am sure Vlad really welcomes this win for Biden, decency, and truth.

Quote

The House GOP’s push to impeach Joe Biden appears close to stalling out for good.

Quote

Then, a high-profile informant making bribery allegations against the Biden family was not only indicted, but has now linked some of his information to Russian intelligence.

Quote

[Republican U.S. Rep Don] Bacon estimated that as many as 30 House GOP lawmakers may be currently opposed to impeaching the president because they haven’t seen evidence of any crime.

Granted, Hunter is a fucked up mess. But what with Vlad being a stalwart for decency and kindness and truth, I am sure he is delighted that all the Trump lies and rot and cruelty are being righted.  God bless Vlad.  Such a just and decent fella!

[EmmetK]

3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Good news, Emmet.

I am sure Vlad really welcomes this win for Biden, decency, and truth.

Granted, Hunter is a fucked up mess. But what with Vlad being a stalwart for decency and kindness and truth, I am sure he is delighted that all the Trump lies and rot and cruelty are being righted.  God bless Vlad.  Such a just and decent fella!

You can continue to spew out your lies, upside down logic, democrat talking points, and stupid JPEGs. And you can also continue to hang your hat on that washed up democrat gypsy fortune teller who got all of 1% in his run for Senate in the democrat primary (did his crystal ball predict a victory?  lmfao).

Trump has the issues. According to every poll, Trump also has the people. Dementia Joe is a disaster.
Trump really doesn't even need to campaign. All his campaign and the RNC need to do is to play the videos of the illegal migrants flooding across the border in every 30-second ad. All 7.6 million of them.. Drug dealers, sex traffickers, and all types of criminals. We already know that Venezuela has opened up its jails and sent their criminal to the US border. This is an invasion of unprecedented numbers.
Trump II is almost here.

 

[Bingo T Dog]

2 hours ago, EmmetK said:

You can continue to spew out your lies, upside down logic, democrat talking points, and stupid JPEGs. And you can also continue to hang your hat on that washed up democrat gypsy fortune teller who got all of 1% in his run for Senate in the democrat primary (did his crystal ball predict a victory?  lmfao).

Trump has the issues. According to every poll, Trump also has the people. Dementia Joe is a disaster.
Trump really doesn't even need to campaign. All his campaign and the RNC need to do is to play the videos of the illegal migrants flooding across the border in every 30-second ad. All 7.6 million of them.. Drug dealers, sex traffickers, and all types of criminals. We already know that Venezuela has opened up its jails and sent their criminal to the US border. This is an invasion of unprecedented numbers.
Trump II is almost here.

 

How do you feel Trump bragging about being the PRO-LIFE candidate will affect his chances?   https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-abortion  https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/29/trump-abortion-ban-2024-campaign-00138417

[stevenkesslar]

6 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Trump has the issues. According to every poll, Trump also has the people. Dementia Joe is a disaster.

Actually, Trump has Netanyahu.  It's hard not to read the polls and think the issue is not Dementia Joe.  If there is a Joe Biden that is a disaster for Democrats, it is "Genocide Joe".

2024 ELECTIONS

Michigan may soon show just how badly Biden’s cease-fire stance is hurting him

Quote

 

“I feel like this is 2016 all over again,” [Michigan Democratic state Sen.] Camilleri continued, referencing the former President Donald Trump’s victory in the state. “It feels like our national party is not listening to our issues on the ground. If the president doesn’t change course [on Israel], I would not be surprised if Biden loses the state [in November].”

The polls, picture, and quote all speak for themselves.  Biden has a huge Michigan problem.  And he can thank Bibi Netankillyu for it, more than Trump.

Something happened in October.  As you can see from the RCP poll above, for most of 2023 the race was a toss up.  There was endless talk about inflation, and immigration, and Biden's age all through 2023.  And the polls were stable, with either Biden or Trump with a slight statistical lead of maybe one percent.  Then it changed after October.  Trump built a lead of close to three percent at one point in the RCP average.

All this may be coincidence.  But Oct. 18th, when Biden actually was in Israel, right after the attack, was the last time he was tied with Trump (43.9 % each) in the RCP national average.  Then as the 2,000 pound bombs started to drop and the headlines became about thousands and then tens of thousands of dead innocent Palestinians, Biden's poll numbers just kept getting worse.  Again, maybe it is a coincidence.  But that period from mid-October to late November when Trump opened up a lead over Biden nationally is when the news was all about the endless slaughter of innocent Palestinian women and children.

The more Palestinian children Bibi Netanyahu kills, the better Trump does in US polls.  Especially in Michigan.  I'm not sure how Biden stops Bibi, or Israelis,  from the indiscriminate slaughter of Palestinian children.  That is now a huge problem for him.

Biden's problem is particularly clear in Michigan.  And as that story above suggests, a lot of it has to do with young voters who are hardly MAGA supporters.  And Palestinian voters, or their friends and allies, who feel this is genocide.  Many Palestinian Americans have family members being killed in Gaza.

The RCP Michigan polls are very clear.  RCP cites nine Michigan polls taken before the October 7th Hamas attack.  Biden led in five, Trump led in one, and three were tied.  The three polls taken in August, September, and early October 2023 all showed Biden leading slightly in Michigan.  There are eleven polls taken in Michigan since Oct. 7th, most of which are counted in the current RCP average.  Trump leads in nine of them, Biden in only one, and one is a tie.  The current RCP Michigan average is Trump +4.6 %.

There's only one pollster on that list where you can do a clear comparison of polls by the same pollster before and after Oct. 7th.  In an August 2023 poll EPIC-MRA showed Biden with a one point lead in Michigan.  By late November 2023 Trump led by five points, according to the same pollster.  In a Feb. 2024 poll just out by EPIC-MRA Trump leads by four points in Michigan.  This is no doubt why Democrats in Michigan are freaking out.

Again, the shifting polls themselves seem to be clear about why this is happening.

Quote

Polls conducted since October 7 [in Michigan] indicate a tight race in the state, with Trump winning in several tests. A poll conducted this week that had Biden trailing by 4 percentage points to Trump also showed 74 percent percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents in favor of a ceasefire accompanied by the release of hostages and provision of aid to Gaza.

If this does not change, Trump will win.  Allan Lichtman will be wrong for the first time since 1984.  Although, as I said in that thread, he has NOT made a formal prediction yet. And he made clear what happens with these wars is part of the reason why.  It is a fact that Biden was leading in the Michigan polls before Bibi starting dropping the bombs.  Once Bibi lashed out, Biden started to lose Michigan.  If he loses Michigan, he loses the Presidency. 

Maybe Trump should make Bibi his Veep.  Since Bibi as much as anyone will get him elected.  And Bibi is wildly unpopular in Israel.

Biden currently has a 0.6 % lead in Pennsylvania, according to RCP. If you look at those polls, they also confirm something happened in October.  There were three polls in Pennsylvania in the 60 days before October 7th.  Biden led in two of them, with the average of the three being Biden +0.7 %.  There were three polls taken in late October and early November in Pennsylvania.  Trump led in all three, with the average being Trump +3.7.   In Pennsylvania the race has now flipped back to Biden, ever so slightly.

Trump currently has a 0.6 % lead in Wisconsin.  There are not enough polls to reach any conclusion on trends.  But Biden's last poll lead in Wisconsin was in late October 2023.

Biden's poll numbers in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are all worse than Michigan.  So if Biden loses those three but keeps Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he has 255 electoral votes.  Michigan has 15.  So it's the tipping point to a Biden victory.

One final extremely lopsided polling result.  Among Democrats, 32 % say Biden is being "too supportive" of Israel.  Only 1 % of Democrats say Biden is "not being supportive enough" of Israel. A plurality of Democrats, 43 %, say what Biden is doing is "about right", and the rest are unsure.  The problem for Biden is that 2024 is clearly going to be a base election. People in the middle don't want either candidate.  So if a third of Biden's base is open to the idea that he is Genocide Joe, he has a very serious problem with his base.

My hope, like most Democrats, is that as inflation went down and the economy grew Biden's poll numbers would grow, too.    So far, nothing about the economy has changed that calculus.  But if the calculus has changed to include the body count of dead Palestinian women and children, that can seemingly only get worse.  There is no plan for Gaza, and no plan for the West Bank.  Other than vague talk about a two state solution, which the leader of Israel opposes, as the bombs keep dropping.

The way this may be hurting Biden the most is by reinforcing the sense that he is old and not in control of events.  If Trump wins, that problem solves itself.  Trump would seemingly do fine among the MAGA base if he held up a sign saying, "Duh!  Drop more bombs.  Kill more Palestinians, stupid!"

It could be like 2016 all over again in Michigan.  Back then it was the factory jobs, stupid.  Now it seems like it's the genocide, stupid.

 

[Marc in Calif]

8 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Trump has the issues. 

Congratulations! 🥳

This is the truest thing you've ever written here! 👏

Drumpf currently has so many issues. Nobody in the world has ever had as many issues as Drumpf has right now. 

[EmmetK]

15 hours ago, Bingo T Dog said:

How do you feel Trump bragging about being the PRO-LIFE candidate will affect his chances?   https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-abortion  https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/29/trump-abortion-ban-2024-campaign-00138417

I feel great about it. And apparently so do the American people:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

And I would much rather have a pro-life candidate like Trump than a pro-death candidate like Dementia Joe who invites in tens of thousand of drug traffickers and fentanyl dealers who poison the blood of Americans.

[EmmetK]

11 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Actually, Trump has Netanyahu.  It's hard not to read the polls and think the issue is not Dementia Joe.  If there is a Joe Biden that is a disaster for Democrats, it is "Genocide Joe".

 

Like everyone else, I don't bother reading your endless blather.

However, your graph is meaningless. This is NOT a 2-person race.
This is Trump vs. Dementia Joe Biden vs Joseph Kennedy vs Jill Stein vs Cornell West

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

[Bingo T Dog]

On 2/18/2024 at 10:32 PM, EmmetK said:

Trump fans have created a GoFundMe page.

In only 2 days, donations are almost $400,000.
Between the GoFundMe site and the Trump sneakers, that will go a long way to paying off whatever the ultimate liability is, if any, in the two civil cases, after the appeals have reduced the amounts.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/stand-with-trump-raise-the-settlement

I've already sent in a tidy donation.

At the rate the GoFundMe site is taking in money it will take 6.91 YEARS to pay off the judgement.  NOT A CROWNING SUCCESS!!!

[Marc in Calif]

How do you feel if Trump were to be convicted of a felony?

A majority of Americans would not vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 election if he is a convicted criminal by the time of November's race, including more than half of Republican voters, according to a recent poll.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 55 percent of potential voters would not support the anticipated Republican nominee at the general election if he were convicted of any of the 91 felony charges he has pleaded not guilty to across four criminal trials. Fifty-eight percent said they would not vote for Trump if he were serving time in prison in November.

https://www.newsweek.com/only-half-republicans-vote-donald-trump-convicted-poll-1869955

[Bingo T Dog]

To be released September 10, 2024.

[stevenkesslar]

3 hours ago, EmmetK said:

I don't bother reading

We're back to square one.

What did facts do to you?   Why does it seem to hurt so deep and so bad?

Fact: Ross Perot polled in June 1992 at 39 %

Fact:  Ross Perot got 19 % of the vote in November 1992.

Fact:  Ross Perot polled 19 % in May 1996

Fact:  Ross Perot got 8 % of the vote in November 1996.

You can do the same with any election/  Every independent polled way better than the vote share they actually got.  That's even more likely to happen this year given how people feel about Trump.   

The good news for Biden is a lot of those West and Stein voters, in particular, are going to end up voting for Biden.  

The bad news for Biden is even if that's true, he looks like he is in serious danger of losing Michigan, anyway.  Whether people pissed at him about "genocide" vote for RFK, or West, or Stein, or just don't vote is a question of slight variations in the size of the nails in the coffin. 

Biden needs a committed base that will get out to vote.  He had that in 2020.  He has a serious base problem in 2024.  And it is showing in Michigan, in particular.

The other good news for Biden is it's early in 2024.  So he has time to do something about it.  Or maybe the people who obviously turned against Biden will change their mind.  But that seems like a very hollow hope.  Particularly when the most likely scenario between now and November is that Bibi will just keep dropping bombs and the death toll will keep rising, while nothing else happens.  As predicted, it's turning into a long term quagmire for Israel.  And it looks more and more like a potential death sentence for Biden.

 

 

[Pete1111]

On 2/17/2024 at 9:36 AM, stevenkesslar said:

YES!  YES!  YES!

Everyone is talking about how corrupt the judge is.  Trump is the most honest and least racist person in America.  

Everyone knows that Trump is Mr.  Integrity.  People all over the galaxy all agree that Trump never gets in trouble with the law.

 

It's a total disgrace.  Nothing like the world has every seen before, bigly.  

All GOP patriots returning to their checking accounts to forward the remaining funds.

 

 

[EmmetK]

Fact: There will be FIVE candidates in the race (Trump, Dementia Joe, Cornell West, Joseph Kennedy, and Jill Stein). One Republican and 4 Democrats. Dementia Joe Biden is one of the least popular incumbents to ever run for re-election. He will need every vote. However, the vote on the left will be splintered between the four dems.
Without question, Trump wins in a landslide.

[Bingo T Dog]

9 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

Fact: There will be FIVE candidates in the race (Trump, Dementia Joe, Cornell West, Joseph Kennedy, and Jill Stein). One Republican and 4 Democrats. Dementia Joe Biden is one of the least popular incumbents to ever run for re-election. He will need every vote. However, the vote on the left will be splintered between the four dems.
Without question, Trump wins in a landslide.

Will MERCEDES be by his side as the first lady?

[stevenkesslar]

8 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Fact: There will be FIVE candidates in the race (Trump, Dementia Joe, Cornell West, Joseph Kennedy, and Jill Stein). One Republican and 4 Democrats. Dementia Joe Biden is one of the least popular incumbents to ever run for re-election. He will need every vote. However, the vote on the left will be splintered between the four dems.
Without question, Trump wins in a landslide.

Two long articles that go in different directions.  Both of which - or all of which - are probably partially true.  You don't have to read either, @EmmetK.  We all know facts and analysis are not your thing.

The GOP Is Burning Bridges With Young Voters for Generations—Thanks to Trump

Quote

And when you look at Gen Z overall, not just young Republicans who are a minority within the generation, there's simply no escaping the reality: Young people cannot stand Donald Trump. They want nothing to do with him, and are often turned off to any ideas they associate with such a uniquely distasteful figure.

That rings true.  The main reason it rings true is simply an objective fact.  Young voters proved by voting that they are repulsed by Trump, MAGA, and the ideas they represent.  Put abortion and climate change at the top of the list.  They not only proved that in November 2020.  They have proved it in basically every election at every level of government since.  The young Wisconsin voters who changed the state's Supreme Court because of abortion don't seem likely to suddenly want Trump in office .  So he can try some kind of national abortion ban by executive decree.

So it seems unlikely that young voters who carried Biden to victory in 2020 and are now pissed at him, in particular for being "Genocide Joe" to Bibi Netanyahu's mad bomber, are going to vote for Trump.

But this goes to the heart of all your incorrect thinking about polls, @EmmetK. 

There are two different but related things happening.  In Biden/Trump matchups, Trump is now winning.  Why?   In large part because young voters are either not supporting Biden, or saying they will support Trump.  Then when you add more names - RFK, West, Stein - it's the same thing.

The polls that add all the names make what is really happening the clearest.  When they are given five choices, not two, young voters in particular don't support Trump any more than exit polls say they supported him in 2020.  Which is to say, young people are wildly opposed to Trump, as the author above says.  At the same time, it's becoming clearer and clearer that young voters don't like Joe Biden and what his administration is doing.  The destruction of Gaza and the killing of 30,000 Palestinians has clearly been a tipping point.  Polls are now screaming it, consistently.  So they say they will vote for RFK, or West, or Stein.  When you subtract Biden's vote, it makes Trump's lead bigger 

But, either way, there is no question that Trump is now slightly leading in national polls for the first time.  And there is no question that it is specifically because of young voters who specifically wanted to get rid of Trump in 2020.  But are now either sour with Biden, or simply done with Biden.  The big thing we don't know is exactly how deep the animosity toward Biden and his policies goes among young voters.  It seems very likely that is a work in progress.  And Democrats should be deeply worried.

This second article is long and all over the map.  But it is probably mostly correct for that reason.  Whatever is happening in the polls right now, it is complicated.  And probably no one knows or can predict what it actually means for November.

What Democrats’ panic over young voters misses

It is shocking that since October there's been a series of polls saying Trump is now tied or even slightly ahead of Biden with the young voters who nailed Trump's coffin shut by huge margins in 2020.  As the article notes, such huge swings among particular voting cohorts rarely happen.  And need to be viewed with skepticism. 

It is easy for me to get my mind around why young voters are repulsed by Biden's support for what they see as genocide in Gaza.  It's harder for me to believe that the same voters would elect Trump.  Who will give Bibi a blank check to kill as many Palestinians as he wants.  The fact that many of the young voters who elected Biden have shifted from being disappointed in him to being repulsed by him doesn't make Trump any less repulsive to them, as the Gen Z author above argues.

I think there are three things that are relatively certain at this point.

First, the levels of support currently shown for RFK, Stein, and West are not going to hold.  That was my point above.  That Vox article basically says that every polling expert who knows anything about polling knows that third party support in the early stages of election cycles NEVER translates to as much support when people actually vote.  So that will mostly help Biden.  Many, but not all, voters who moved away from him to some other name will move back.  In part because they will decide they are even more repulsed by Trump.  It still could be enough to nail Biden's coffin shut, though.  Just like Stein nailed Hillary's coffin shut in 2016.  Thanks, Jill!  Asshole!

Second, this is incredibly bad news for Biden, no matter what you make of both articles.  As a Democrat, I can rationalize this away easily enough.  Two of my nephews expressed this view of Biden recently.  They understand why Democrats are better off running with an incumbent.  But they just DO NOT want this incumbent!  They almost shouted it.  But, as an example of low information voting, they had no idea who John Kasich is.  Or why compromise-oriented Democrats like me like him.  And these two are very smart college graduates.  So I can only imagine what young voters who get their information off Tik Tok know.  Or, more importantly, don't know. 

So it is very easy for me to believe some pollster calls some Gen Z voter (if they ever answer their phone) who is pissed at "Genocide Joe".  And they say they will vote for RFK or Stein or West - or even Trump.  But once Biden reminds them that Trump's SCOTUS killed his student loan cancellation plan, and that Trump would be better to Bibi and worse to Palestinians, and that Trump mostly wants tax breaks to billionaires and abortion bans, that may change.  Who the fuck knows, really?  Nobody knows, really.  But it is a monumental roll of the dice on the part of Biden and Democrats to assume young voters don't really mean it.  Because they do really mean it.  They did nail Trump's coffin shut in 2020.  In 2024 they could take the nails out of the coffin and make him President again.   They don't even have to vote for Trump, which I think is unlikely.  They just have to vote third party.  Or, most likely, not vote at all.

Third, this is exactly why I think Allan Lichtman will once again be right in the end.  One of his main messages is that the polls are fickle.  And that what matters is the fundamentals.  This is a textbook example of it.  We know for a fact that in every election since 1984 polls at one point or another showed either the Democrat or Republican winning. Including in 2016, when a few polls on a good day did show Trump with a tiny lead.  And yet somehow Lichtman got it right every time - with a small caveat about Gore in 2000, who did win the popular vote and lost by a handful of votes in one state that are still kind of an historical black hole.  

If I go with Lichtman's correct bets so far, and I had to bet $100,000 today, I'd bet it on Biden.  Mostly because, as of February 2024, it seems like the fundamentals - as Lichtman outlines them - are on Biden's side.  Another way of saying it is that polls based on low information young voters who get their news off Tik Tok probably are very fickle.  They could easily change again six months from now. 

Both articles are right that the election hasn't really started.  When we get to the part where we talk about how Trump killed Roe v. Wade, and how he wants abortion bans and a firm policy of climate change denial, that may change how many young people feel.

But both articles seem spot on about young voters who are not at all enamored of EITHER political party. 

As a Democrat, I mostly view this as a good wake up call.  And Gaza is a perfect example.  It's understandable that Biden making vague statements about caution while 30,000 Palestinians, mostly women and kids, are slaughtered is just not going to cut it as policy.  Either Democrats decide they're willing to take one for Bibi.  Or they have to pay attention to why young voters have a deepening feeling of repulsion from Biden.  Even if it is mostly based on what they see on Tik Tok.  The repulsion over Gaza is a fact.  But it's also a symbol for all the other ways Democrats (or Republicans, but not Trump) are going to have to work harder to win and keep the votes of Millennials and Gen Z.  By coming up with policies and accomplishments that they actually like, and are not repulsed by.