Biden to defeat Trump in election 2024 | Allan Lichtman

[Suckrates]

8 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Duh!  I'm very aware that I'm way more interested in this stuff than most people.   

But I do think Lichtman was just way off message and wrong when he said "disinformation" is why his Keys were wrong.   It's pretty close to saying, "My Keys are fine.  The problem is you fucking stupid Trump supporters, who are ignorant and don't understand what I think is good for you."

Flip side, since I just watched one hour of Team Halperin, is they think it is condescending and delusional for Democrats like me to think many Trump supporters may end up regretting what they voted for.  Remember how in 2016 Trump supporters on Obamacare said there was no way he would cut Obamacare without replacing it with something better? Until he almost did cut it, but for John McCain.

So I'm happy knowing too much, just like many Trump supporters are happy not knowing enough.

 

 

CORRECTION:   thy KNOW but just dont care,  that's a BIG difference.  Simply put, there priorities are just diff than yours and mine.  I dont understand it because I wholeheartedly AGREE with Sunny Hostins takedown of Americans that voted Trump.  But its only one election, and if our country survives, Dems can regroup and make some headway in midterms and a comeback in 2028.  Please lay ALL your prized "pundits" to rest !   🧐 

[EmmetK]

Alan Lichtman  = The Village Idiot.
He and Ann Selzer now known as Tweedle Dee Dee and Tweedle Dee Dum

How did those magical keys work out?  lmfao
I heard that all of the Village Idiot's speaking engagements have been cancelled.
The only bigger loser, other than Cackles, was the over-the-hill ex-hooker who promoted him and his magical keys incessantly... and annoyingly!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[Suckrates]

I do agree Lichtmans reign is over....  The faux Carnack can retire his turban.  Predicting results is like turning a 3 inch cock into a 10" cock....NEVER GONNA HAPPEN......

[EmmetK]

What is most baffling is that anyone took this clown seriously? 
Alan Lichtman, aka The Village Idiot, aka Tweedle Dee Dee could not have been taken seriously by anyone with half a brain.

 

Oh well, to quote PT Barnum, there is a sucker born every minute. That includes Lichtman and all of his acolytes. Both of them!  

 

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[Suckrates]

31 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

What is most baffling is that anyone took this clown seriously? 
Alan Lichtman, aka The Village Idiot, aka Tweedle Dee Dee could not have been taken seriously by anyone with half a brain.

 

Oh well, to quote PT Barnum, there is a sucker born every minute. That includes Lichtman and all of his acolytes. Both of them!  

 

More accurately, there is 51% of suckers born every minute....

[Pete1111]

9 hours ago, Suckrates said:

...turning a 3 inch cock into a 10" cock....NEVER GONNA HAPPEN......

So true ..... So true.

 

[EmmetK]

The Village Idiot, aka Tweedle Dee Dee refuses to take blame...
He will be auctioning his magical keys on ebay soon. You should buy them as a souvenir of the election.

If he decides to auction his wig, I'll put in a bid.

TRUMP2024
MAGA

[stevenkesslar]

On 11/9/2024 at 7:14 AM, EmmetK said:

over-the-hill ex-hooker

Moi?

Why are you so cruel?

I mean, yeah.   I had the time of life being a hooker.  For about two decades.  Is there a problem with it?  It's just a funny - but cruel - thing to say on a website like this.

But then, we all know you're as good at being cruel as I was at being a hooker.  You thrive on hate.  I made a ton on sex and fun.  I'd rather be me than you.

We could talk about why I was such a successful hooker, and landlord, and investor, if you want.

Or we could just talk about why you are cruel.

Why are you so cruel?

You already seem to be excited about this next go round of separating kids from their parents, or deporting legally American kids.

Why are you so cruel?

[EmmetK]

3 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Moi?

Why are you so cruel?

I mean, yeah.   I had the time of life being a hooker.  For about two decades.  Is there a problem with it?  It's just a funny - but cruel - thing to say on a website like this.

But then, we all know you're as good at being cruel as I was at being a hooker.  You thrive on hate.  I made a ton on sex and fun.  I'd rather be me than you.

We could talk about why I was such a successful hooker, and landlord, and investor, if you want.

Or we could just talk about why you are cruel.

Why are you so cruel?

You already seem to be excited about this next go round of separating kids from their parents, or deporting legally American kids.

Why are you so cruel?

All questions directed at me, I forward to Allan Lichtman aka The Village Idiot aka Tweedle Dee Dee. He responds for me.
The Gold Standard of Predictors, the "Nostradamus" lost all of his gigs. He was unemployed. Being the kind soul that I am, I hired him as my personal valet. He cleans my house, does my laundry, and responds to dopey questions. I pay him 6 bucks an hour. He was happy to get the job.

TRUMP2024
MAGA

P.S. As Confucius says:  Those who talk the most have the least to say.

[stevenkesslar]

On 11/9/2024 at 8:00 AM, Suckrates said:

I do agree Lichtmans reign is over....  The faux Carnack can retire his turban.  Predicting results is like turning a 3 inch cock into a 10" cock....NEVER GONNA HAPPEN......

True, and false.  Figuring out who will win The Presidency is complicated.   

I spent way more time watching Mark Halperin's 2Way than Lichtman this Fall.  In retrospect, I know for sure I wanted to believe Lichtman.  At one point a few months ago Halperin basically trashed Lichtman and his rigid "data in, data out" system.  Meanwhile, for the last few weeks of the campaign Halperin was saying the Trump people seem to be pretty confident they will win.  He predicted days before the election that Republicans would win 53 Senate seats and the House. 

In this case an exceptionally good reporter beat Nostradamus.  But the idea that any of this is simple or easy to predict is just a bad idea. 

I'm now going to post two of my favorite analysts, both of whom Democrats should listen to very closely right now.  Ron Brownstein and Ruy Teixeira. 

Because I follow both of them closely, I can say with certainty this election was a big disappointment, but not a big surprise.  I don't know that anyone is really surprised.  We have been hearing about inflation and immigration and Biden's low favorability rating endlessly for years.  How could anyone who's been paying attention say they are shocked?

Brownstein is the gold standard for this election, and any election.  Bill Clinton, who Halperin says is the most canny politician of our age, bar none, agrees.  This is at least the fourth Bill Kristol interview with Brownstein I have watched since 2018, breaking down the electorate.  One concept that stands out above all others is that this is narrow trench warfare.  Both sides live in a "calcified" political system.  So you win by inches. 

Democrats won by inches in 2020 and mostly held their ground in 2022.   But we did lose the House by inches in 2022.  Trump won by inches in 2024.  In Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and probably Arizona the Democratic Senate candidate won.  Casey lost by inches.  Right now there is a net change of one seat - ONE SEAT - in the US House.

So journalists are calling this a landslide. Give me a fucking break.  As of right now, Trump won by about half of Biden's winning margin in 2020. Reagan won a landslide in 1980 and 1984.  2020 and 2024 are not landslides.  They are winning by inches.  When the other 25 % of the vote is counted, Trump will have just over or under 50.0 % of the vote, and Harris will have over 48 %.  Landslide?

Here are the two most important things Brownstein says, in my view.

First, this was a national performance review, and Biden and Harris failed.  I do think it is sufficient to say that almost every incumbent in the world who presided over COVID+inflation has faced hell from voters.  Brownstein argues if Biden were at the top of the ticket, it would have been worse.  I don't think it's even a question.  Harris brought in enthusiasm, volunteers, and money that saved lots of Democrats who narrowly won, including the ones I mentioned above.

He argues there is no precedent in US history for an incumbent party winning in these circumstances.  Meaning when the incumbent is NOT running (Truman, LBJ, W) and the country is in a bad mood, their Veep or successor is going to face enormous headwinds.  The shift was uniform all over America.  So I think Brownstein is right.  This was a performance review, and Biden and Harris failed.

Second, Brownstein cites a ton of exit poll data that shows lots of voters elected Trump despite their misgivings about both his fascist sounding behavior, and his policies on issues like abortion.  A majority of Americans, including some who voted for him, think his views are too extreme.  They don't support his anti-democratic words and behavior. So both Susie Wiles and the American voters have our fascist wannabe on a tight leash. 

If @EmmetK thinks this is a mandate for cruelty, Trump crime, and tax cuts for billionaires, he may be surprised.  Enjoy your cruelty while you can, @EmmetK.

I'll reinforce one key point.  Carter lost in a landslide in 1980, while winning 56 % of the Latino vote.  The final number is out, but Harris probably lost with a slightly smaller share of Latinos.  And they were the key group that turned massively against Democrats, based on pocketbook issues. The seepage that occurred with Black men happened for the same reason. 

So it is at best premature to say there is any realignment here.  In 1992 Latinos turned against another incumbent, Bush 41, because of a weak economy.  This is how it works in America.  The idea that Democrats are now doomed forever is at best premature.  If Trump starts deporting legally American kids of "the illegals" Latinos will go nuts.  You read it here first.  If the TRUMP WE FEAR is the one that shows up in January, there will be a massive shift back in 2026. 

This is a war that is being fought by inches, not by landslides.

The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition

It’s time to face the facts.

Ruy Teixeira

Nov 07, 2024

Teixeira has been warning Democrats for years.  The irony is that decades ago when he and John Judis wrote The Emerging Democratic Majority they were viewed as wildly liberal. And they were.  And are.  When that book came out Democrats were in the political wilderness.  Now we just had the most liberal and pro-union President ever, arguably.  Trump 2016 was anti-union.  Dan Osborne ran a great race blasting "millionaires run by billionaires" but siding with Team Trump on immigration. Democrats just lost a huge battle by inches.  So what?

This election was not a mandate for more tax cuts for billionaires and corporations that profited by price gouging.  But that is exactly what we are going to get.  Anyone want to predict how popular that will be?

The counterfactual I would most like to run is what would have happened if Democrats had fought like hell for those child tax credits?  In effect, the tax credits did this to tens of millions of working class families with kids:  "Inflation took 25 % out of your pocketbook.  Here are tax credits that put it back."  Plus it cut Black and Hispanic child poverty in half.  Given a choice between more of that, or "we will cut your health care and cut taxes for billionaires", which might America have chosen?   

This is exactly the kind of stuff AMLO did in Mexico.  Not just words.  Policies and actions that economically helped the Mexican working class during hard times.  AMLO and his party beat the wall of lava that took down most incumbents, including Biden and Harris.

So Teixeira has been right twice now, about massive historical trends.  I think Lichtman probably has a harder time being objective about it than Teixeira.  I wanted to believe Lichtman.  But Teixeira turned out to be closer to the truth.

Brownstein didn't really get too deep into the cultural issues that Teixeira focuses on.  Did Democrats really lose because of what Harris said years ago about prisoners getting sex changes using taxpayer money?  Probably not.  If Latinos felt they were getting ahead economically under Biden and Harris, she probably would have won.  But that would have been because lots of moderates overlooked the fact they feel Democrats went too far on "defund the police" and similar cultural hot buttons.  Just like they overlooked all their fears about Trump and his disdain for democracy.  And his lies and chaos.

This is going to be hard for Democrats.  But I think Teixeira is right that the "woke" moment is over.  "LatinX" was a bad idea that is now thoroughly discredited.  Democrats now have to think very hard about what we can do to help working class Latinos.  I know!  Let's cut taxes for billionaires! 😨  This moment is so clear that it helps guys like Teixeira and Judis who have been screaming for years that Democrats need to get back to their working class roots.  

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, EmmetK said:

All questions directed at me, I forward to Allan Lichtman aka The Village Idiot aka Tweedle Dee Dee. He responds for me.

Because you don't want to engage in a discussion about all the cruel things you say.

Why are you so cruel?

Neither does Trump, it seems.   So he will probably do many cruel things, just like in his first term. A relatively small slice of voters overlooked the cruelty because they voted based on their pocketbooks, and are hoping that Trump's tariffs raise prices 10 or 20 % and he cuts their health care subsidies and Medicaid. Oh, wait.  They are hoping Trump does NOT do those things.  They are hoping for tax cuts for billionaires and mass deportations of American children.  Oh wait.  They are hoping he brings prices down and is not cruel.   We'll see.

This was NOT a mandate for cruelty.

Why are you so cruel?

[Moses]

55 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Trump won by inches in 2024.

312:226

"inches" aha...

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

312:226

"inches" aha...

You're for genocide.   So why not, slavery, too?   Genocide Man's people are essentially slaves, being sent off to be processed into meat.   

The electoral college is a remnant of slavery.  You should like talking about that.  You come here to bring division and hate. So of course you should relish the America of slavery, which was a form of genocide.  I actually think it is cool that young Black men are sent to Ukraine to be processed into meat are now welcome into the Republican Party, rather than being told they can't vote.  Up with America!  Down with Genocide World!

In terms of the popular vote, Harris is now losing by half the margin Trump lost by in 2020.   Trump is just a liar who lies.  In 2020, when he lost by twice as much as Harris, he denied that he lost and brought hate and division to America.  Now that he won by half as much as Biden - size matters! - he wants to say it is a huge landslide.  Poor thing.  So small!  He may just barely get 50 % of the vote when they are all counted.

The interesting thing is that in most of the swing states, Trump won by a small margin, and meanwhile most Democratic Senators won by a small margin.  

So yes, it is trench warfare.  Something you and all the hundreds of thousands of Russians, especially minorities, that Genocide Man is processing into meat should understand.   The war is being won or lost by inches.

[Moses]

8 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

In terms of the popular vote, Harris is now losing by half the margin Trump lost by in 2020.

"In terms" of the results of the penguin vote in Antarctica, Harris didn't lose anything at all, so what?

The Democrats lost the presidency, lost more seats in the Senate, are likely to lose their majority in the House, and no longer control the Supreme Court. It's a rout.

And you, lemming, are a loser. Because like a blind man you followed the charlatan Lichtman, who led you to the edge of the abyss and said that there were no obstacles ahead. And you trustingly stepped forward.

Now you are flying down and convincing yourself that everything is fine and the feeling of flying gives freedom. There is not much left until the stones at the bottom of the abyss. And for now - enjoy.

[Moses]

The problem with the Democratic Party now is that refrigerators are voting against it. Empty refrigerators in the homes of those 41.2 million Americans who receive food stamps every month.

The problem with the Democratic Party is that no one believes it: it scolds Trump, but the population remembers that nothing terrible happened under him, it promises a bright future, but the population sees that in the last 4 years, the Democratic Party has achieved nothing of what it promised, and, on the contrary, has led to an "abortion problem" for all women in the United States.

The problem with the Democratic Party is that the "trans problem" was named as one of the main threats, but most of the population does not care about the "trans problem", but the problem of an empty refrigerator is their number one priority.

And the media. The Democratic Party has lost Musk, Bezos and the support of their media.

[Moses]

11 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

So yes, it is trench warfare.

Lemming, this is a global, catastrophic defeat for the Democrats.

In 2020, the Democrats won, receiving the votes of 81.2 million voters. In 2024, the Democratic Party candidate was supported by 71.2 million voters. In 4 years, the party has lost the support of 10 million voters. Once again: ten million.

The Democratic Party is in crisis due to its leaders, due to the faceless and unconvincing presidential candidate Harris, due to the blindly arrogant Biden with cognitive problems, who has lost touch with reality.

Voters did not believe the Democratic Party and Harris and did not come to vote for her. They did not vote for Trump - he received only 600 thousand more votes than in 2020. Voters simply did not come to support a party that does not meet their interests anymore.

This is a failure: the party spent more than $1 billion to promote its candidate and still lost 10 million voters.

And until the party admits the problem, it will not be able to fix it.

[EmmetK]

On 9/8/2024 at 1:24 AM, stevenkesslar said:

Poor clown!  Poor thing!  How sad to be wrong.

Yes. It is sad to be wrong. And you can write a book on the subject. 

So this week Lichtman made his official prediction.  HARRIS IS GOING TO WIN!

Yippee! Harris is GOing to Win! Why bother having an election? Tweedle Dee Dee has spoken! lol.

I almost started a new thread on this.  But I thought it would be more interesting to post it in the thread I started in February, when it looked like Lichtman's Keys were pointing to a Biden victory.

This year is interesting for that reason.  He's basically saying that Harris and Democrats have no more than five keys against them as the incumbent party.  And in his system it takes six to toss the incumbents out.  One of the keys the Democrats lost when Biden stepped aside is his incumbency key.  So if Biden were the nominee, Lichtman would also have predicted Biden would win.  That is certain.

Gotta Love those magical keys......

The important thing is that Lichtman has been predicting, in advance, since 1984. 

That was your first mistake. Putting the words Lichtman and important in the same sentence.

I went into detail because if Harris loses, it will be a lot like Gore's loss in 2000.  First, she'll probably win the popular vote by millions even if she "loses", just like Gore in 2000.  

She'll probably win the popular vote by millions? Really? Perhaps you and Tweedle Dee Dee should swap keys since neither of you know what you are talking about.

.  

All of this makes sense to me. 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!

TRUMP2024
MAGA

Confucius say: Those who talk the most, say the least!

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

7 hours ago, EmmetK said:

 

You're obviously spending lots of time pulling up quotes about Lichtman.

Why do you get so much pleasure out of being cruel?

Enjoy it while it lasts.

9 hours ago, Moses said:

In 4 years, the party has lost the support of 10 million voters.

This is a failure: the party spent more than $1 billion to promote its candidate and still lost 10 million voters.

And until the party admits the problem, it will not be able to fix it.

Absolutely!  You're not gonna get a debate from me on that.  I already posted a lot about it.  Here's more, focusing on what we can learn from the success of our "Latino working class" neighbor.

While turnout was bad for Democrats, Harris also got over 5 million more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016.    2020 turnout was record breaking.  So it's no surprise overall turnout went down.  But your point is correct.  Trump supporters got out and voted.  A lot of Democrats, or maybe they should be called soft 2020 Biden supporters, didn't bother.  And the most concerning trends were Latinos and young voters, especially men, who moved heavily to Trump.   

The only nice thing about it is that it's so clear and obvious from the Votecast polls that no one can be confused about it. It obviously had mostly to do with the economy, stupid.  Every Democrat is now talking about "working class" and Latino.

 

This is part of a global trend.   Almost everybody who ruled during COVID+inflation is being punished at the polls.  Except for Genocide Man, of course.  Russia doesn't have real elections.  Kind of weird for a Genocide Freak like you to be lecturing me about elections.  But go ahead.  Rub it in if you want.  It was a failure.

Team MAGA is already overreaching.   Biden won by 5 million votes and about 4.5 % in 2020.  When the votes are all counted Trump will win by a little over 2 million votes, and maybe 2 %.  Hardly a landslide or a mandate.  So we'll see how it goes.  But it's almost certain Trump will want tax cuts for oligarchs like Elon Musk and corporations.  

Mexico is the interesting exception to the rule.  I knew Sheinbaum won big.  But your point about 10 million less US voters made me curious.   So I checked.  AMLO won in 2019 with 30 million votes,  That was just under 55 % of about 57 million Mexican voters.  Sheinbaum won in 2024 with 36 million votes, which was 62 % of about 60 million votes.   So it was the opposite of the US.  Higher turnout.  And a huge mandate to a Latino working class party for more of the same.  Plus they elected their first female leader.  And inflation in Mexico was as bad as in the US, peaking at 9 %!

I want the US to be more like Mexico, and less like Genocide World.  Trump will do the opposite.  He'll buddy up to Genocide Man and oligarchs like Musk.  It won't be popular.  That's not what Latinos voted for.

What worked in Mexico?  Lots.  But I'll state three big things.  First, social pensions for seniors and lots of other things to boost the working class.  Including a guy who personifies working class sensibilities.  Second, defend the police rather than defund the police.  A book can be written about AMLO's "hugs, not bullets" policy.  But he made a big show of hiring cops and paying them more and reducing violent crime, which did go down in Mexico after the pandemic.   He also stressed energy independence. 

So he is the poster child for a style of "Latino working class populism" that worked better than what Biden did.  Every time I talk about this I will repeat that if Democrats had fought like hell for the expanded child tax credits, which helped tens of millions of Latino, Black, and White working class families and cut child poverty in half, Democrats might have had a result more like what AMLO and Sheinbaum pulled off.

Anyway, Mexico did a better job than the US, where Harris lost by a few points.  And both did better than Genocide World, where political opponents to Genocide Man are jailed and killed.  And where he sends his people off to be processed into meat.  You must be pretty jealous!

I'm not jealous of all the Russians Genocide Man is sending off to be processed into meat.  Or of all the Ukrainians he is slaughtering.   By the way, as the polls I've posted before show,  Americans love NATO, and despise Russia.  Despite voting for Trump, they don't want to end support for Ukraine.  If Trump tries to appease his pal Genocide Man by moving against NATO, there will be tremendous backlash.

[Moses]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

they don't want to end support for Ukraine

Trump will say something like "we spent 150 billion on Ukraine and it didn't give any result, except for several hundred thousand corpses. It's time to stop the war!"

Are there any idiots who will start screaming "no, let's continue the war!"? I assume they will be in blue lemming suits.

The main arguments will be: stop the war, stop the deaths of people and spend money on the poor instead of weapons.

And that's where it will all end.

[EmmetK]

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

You're obviously spending lots of time pulling up quotes about Lichtman.

I don't need to pull up any quotes by that pompous ass. I just play videos of his idiotic predictions and reliance on his magical keys. That's enough to show what an ignorant fool he is. And that is an apt description of his acolytes who quoted his every word as if it was coming directly from Heaven.

And now Tweedle Dee Dee wants sympathy from the same people he played as fools for this entire election cycle for the hate he has justifiably received.

You own it pal!

 

2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

The main arguments will be: stop the war, stop the deaths of people and spend money on the poor instead of weapons.

Boy do I wish you were right!   Remember, I was in the minority saying the Iraq War was a huge mistake.   And I'd go along with calling THAT a genocide, too.  The US lost tremendous amounts of good will.  And Iraq opened the door for Genocide Man to say, "Okay. I can do the same.  Genocide or bust!"

I'll be broken record about this.  If Democrats had spent more money on child tax credits to Latino and Black families and less on weapons, Harris might have won.   Anyone who thinks Donald Trump and Republicans will spend more on the poor, like child tax credits, is delusional.  They will cut taxes for billionaires and corporations that price gouged.   

That is what working class Latinos want, of course.  Every night working class Latinos pray for tax cuts for billionaires.  LOL.

 

There you have it again, delusional Genocide Freak.  Americans despise Genocide Man and Russia.  Americans are warmer to NATO than about anything else.  That poll predicted some of what just happened.  Democrats like enviro groups.  But they also like US natural gas and US nuclear power.  Now is a time for us Democrats to face facts and shift.

The poll that is from is Stan Greenberg, who more than any pollster knows what might work better with the working class.  His wife, Rosa DeLauro, is a member of Congress and was champion of the child tax credits.  When Manchin killed them, she said this was a "big mistake" for Democrats.  She was right. 

Quote

Since those monthly payments ended, DeLauro, D-3rd District, and other Democratic lawmakers have been trying, to no avail, to get Congress to restore the enhancements for low-income families over the past two years. DeLauro has called the child tax credit an “antidote to inflation,” noting that eligible families used it to help them pay for expenses like food, rent and child care.

So now what we have instead is Trump, who is not going to favor the poor.  They will get some crumbs with the billionaire tax cuts.  But that's all.

Pop quiz:  Which US President decided to send weapons to Ukraine?

Answer:  Donald Trump

So, yes.  Trump plays everything both ways, including Ukraine.  Genocide Man of course knows this.  Trump will be constrained by America's commitment to NATO, and to Ukraine.  If he hands Ukrainian women and children over to Genocide Man on a platter, to rape and kill, it will not go down well.  Ukraine is adamantly opposed to being part of Genocide World.  Get out of your delusions!

As of right now Harris would be President if 130,000 people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had voted for Harris rather than Trump.  Or, if 250,000 Biden supporters in 2020 voted in those three states in 2024 instead of staying home, she would have won.  

250,000 is a lot of people.  But not much when you compare it to how many Russians Genocide Man has processed into meat in just a few years, in a much smaller and weaker and failing country like Genocide World.  So don't overestimate the nature of Putin winning one very important battle.

I agree with you that fewer dead Ukrainians and Russians would be a mercy.  Funny that a Genocide Freak like you, who backs the sadistic mass murderer who started the war, comes here to preach about peace and mercy.  Go preach about mercy to Genocide Man and see how that goes.

[stevenkesslar]

41 minutes ago, EmmetK said:

I don't need to pull up any quotes by that pompous ass. I just play videos of his idiotic predictions and reliance on his magical keys.

Like I said, enjoy your cruelty while it lasts.  When Trump starts deporting the parents of legally American kids, or the kids themselves, cruelty won't look so good anymore.  And Lichtman will still have his hair.  😉

You can keep beating Lichtman up all you want.  I still like The Keys as an explanation for why people vote the way they do.  What he clearly got wrong this year was the economy, stupid.  He needs to change that key to reflect the fact that, just like in 1992, when it feels like a recession - or when inflation hits hard like in 1980 - it is horrible news for incumbents.  That is the obvious thing that I think almost everyone agrees on.

@Moses is definitely on to something with this idea that about 10 million Biden supporters did not vote.  We know some of them shifted to Trump.   But as @Moses said, it's not really that Trump improved on his 74 million votes.  As of now he has added 500,000 votes from 2020.  It's that Harris didn't get something like 10 million votes  (probably more like 8 to 9 million when the counting is done) that Biden got in 2020.

If the 2024 electorate was the same as 2020, I'm pretty sure Harris would have won.  It will be really interesting to learn who those 10 million people are, and why they did not vote.   But comparing the CNN 2024 exit polls to the 2020 exit polls gives us some clues:

In 2020, voters aged 18-29 were 17 % of the electorate, but only 14 % of the electorate in 2024.

In 2020, Blacks were 13 % of the electorate, but only 11 % in 2024.

In 2020, Latinos were 13 % of the electorate, but only 12 % in 2024.

So that has to be millions of votes missing right there.  The big winner was voters 65 and older.   There were probably more of them, and Harris did better with them than in 2020.  It makes sense.  They own more stocks, and homes.  So they were the big winners in the huge leap in net worth, home prices, and the stock market under Biden.   Young people, Blacks, and Latinos faced with soaring rent were not happy.

Trump voters should be more than a little concerned that in 2024 you won what was not a landslide mostly because something like 10 million young voters, Blacks, and Latinos stayed home.  What happens if they vote in 2026 and 2028, and favor Democrats like they usually do?

Although there is some great news for Trump and the working class.   We all know what Blacks, Latinos, and young people demand more than anything else: tax cuts for billionaires.  Oh, and corporations, too!  When Trump passes his hog feed tax cuts and the young, Latinos, and Blacks who are not rich get crumbs, that will no doubt make them want to vote Republican for the rest of their lives!!!!!!!   But just to be 100 % sure, Trump really needs to cut their health care, too.  Not being able to afford health care is even more revered than MLK by most Blacks.

[Moses]

54 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

I agree with you that fewer dead Ukrainians and Russians would be a mercy.  Funny that a Genocide Freak like you, who backs the sadistic mass murderer who started the war, comes here to preach about peace and mercy.  Go preach about mercy to Genocide Man and see how that goes.

Again your fake cries?

Just in two months after start of military conflict there were peace talk in Istanbul. Ukraine canceled it as per advice of West. Fools - they trust to West which already betrayed his allies in Afghanistan, Vietnam, Laos, and in Ukraine will be same. Nothing personal, just national interests and moneys.

So now Ukraine pays full price and West watching so that the war does not end as long as Ukraine has a population.

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

Just in two months after start of military conflict there were peace talk in Istanbul.

Yes, Genocide Man offered Ukraine peace by invading their country.  It's just obvious, isn't it?

This is the hard part for Russia.   The polls showed very clearly that before the invasion Ukraine was more or less split down the middle.  They were quite open to Russia, and candidates that wanted to ally with Russia.

Now they all hate you.  They want you dead.  And they are killing hundreds of thousands of Russians.  

The hatred has nothing to do with the US, or Europe, or NATO, who they respect and want to be allies with.  It has to do with Genocide Man, and genocide.  Nothing you can do will change the fact that they hate you.

Blame it on yourselves, and your genocide.

 

[Moses]

6 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

or Europe

Tell it to Hungary (EU), Slovakia (EU), Serbia, Montenegro...

"It wasn't Russian bombs that fell on our cities in 1999..." - said president of Serbia

 

This is Belgrade, April 2022.