Members stevenkesslar Posted February 16 Members Share Posted February 16 So I have to start with a huge disclaimer. I cut and pasted the headline of that YouTube interview verbatim. It has had a quarter million views so far. In my mind, this is far more significant news than Tucker Carlson's snowflake interview of Murderous Vlad. Lichtman did NOT make a formal prediction of a Biden victory in 2024. If you don' want to watch the whole 14 minute interview, the key part is the last 90 seconds, starting at 12:30. That's where Lichtman says this: Quote “A lot of things would have to go wrong over the next several months to predict a Biden defeat.” That's NOT a prediction. But it tells us very clearly where Lichtman's prediction is likely to come down, as of today. He said he'll make a prediction this Summer. This is a description of Lichtman's 13 Keys. He developed this system back in the 80's with a Russian global expert at predicting earthquakes. It basically uses pattern recognition techniques about how important variables - like the economy or scandal or social unrest - impacted the outcome of every US election since the Civil War. Lichtman argues it uses common sense. He says what matters is how well the party in power GOVERNS. Not how well they campaign or what kind of ads they buy. It is actually a huge compliment to American voters, and democracy in general. He does not think voters are stupid. He argues, with 100 % accurate predictions since 1984 behind him, that at the end of the day people care about important stuff. Like the economy, and war and peace. That's a breakdown of how Lichtman rated each election since 1992 in advance. The top line number is the number of FALSE keys, or keys turned against the incumbent. The theory is that every election is a thumbs up or thumbs down vote on the party in power. And if you have six or more keys turned against you, you lose. Probably the single most important variable right now is incumbency. Lichtman has been emphatic since 2020 that Democrats are far better off nominating the incumbent and avoiding a big party fight. Whether you think he is "Dementia Joe" or "Get Stuff Done" Joe, Lichtman says Democrats are far more likely to win with Biden at the top of the ticket. I think what he is saying is almost common sense. The main reason I feel that way is that if Biden did step aside there could be a huge divisive fight over who would replace him. It could tear the party apart. What Democrats are clearly doing instead is circling the wagons around Biden, warts and all. Lichtman thinks that's smart. If he stepped aside, there would for sure be one more nail in the Democrat's coffin, like in 2016: lack of an incumbent. If there were a huge divisive party fight, kind of like what happened in 2016, that would be a second nail in the coffin. My own read of Lichtman's system, which is easy to understand, is that Biden currently has 3 keys against him. 1) Democrats lost House seats in the midterms. 2) Biden is not charismatic. 3) There is no Biden foreign policy success. That's it. As of now, the last incumbent Presidents to be running with only 3 or fewer keys turned against them were Obama in 2012 and Reagan in 1984, when Lichtman predicted a Reagan victory over a year in advance. At the time Lichtman predicted Reagan would win, Reagan was looking wobbly and old. Obama's race was neck and neck until November 2012 in polls. Lichtman argues that, in the end, the fundamentals prevail. I have followed Lichtman closely enough, because he is right in his predictions all the time, that I think I can decode some things he says in that interview. The Economy: He says the economy is good. We clearly are NOT in a recession, despite public anxiety about prices. Lichtman's long-term economic variable is basically mathematical, about rates of long term GDP growth. As of today, Biden doesn't have the economy turned against him. One reason I'd guess Lichtman will wait until Summer is in 2020 COVID changed everything for Trump. Trump went into 2020 with only four keys turned against him. Then in 2020 both economy keys went bad, as did the social unrest key. So it ain't over til the fat man - Trump - eats his KFC. But the economy is looking good for Biden at this point. Third Party: I think @EmmetK is out to lunch on these polls that shows up to 1 in 4 Americans voting for RFK or West or Stein. Ain't gonna happen. Lichtman's standard is that if a third party candidate gets over 5 %, it is a sign of tremors against the incumbent. I would bet RFK, who is now polling as high as 20%, will actually get over 5 % of the vote. Lichtman mentions third party candidates as an important variable in the interview above. So it's pretty likely that this will be a fourth key turned against Biden by Election Day. And we all know it could make a huge difference in close votes in swing states. That said, the memo is out there that if you actually vote for Jill Stein you should be prepared for four more years of Trump. Gen Z is not stupid. War And Peace: This is the other variable Lichtman specifically mentions. And I'm already assuming Biden has one of these two keys turned against him: no foreign policy success. As of today, I'd guess Lichtman would NOT say Biden has had a foreign policy failure. Many people would of course argue Afghanistan was a disaster. And things could change in Ukraine. But it looks like both the EU and the US will manage to send lots of arms to Ukraine. So that Vlad can be successful at turning many more Russian men into fertilizer. Woo hoo! Will Americans punish Joe for helping Vlad cripple Russia's economy and turn his own people into fertilizer? I doubt it. But Gen Z may punish Biden for Netanyahu wantonly slaughtering Palestinian women and kids. There are no other keys likely to turn against Biden, as long as he is the incumbent. So that means probably 4, or possibly 5 keys, turned against him. Which is why Lichtman is saying "a lot of things would have to go wrong in the next several months to predict a Biden defeat." In every election involving Trump, Lichtman has thrown in the caveat that history has no precedent for some of the craziness. Like January 6th. Or an indicted or convicted candidate. If Lichtman is wrong this time, assuming this Summer he does publicly predict Biden will win, it could be like 2000. Lichtman predicted Gore would win. And he did win the popular vote, which at the time is what Lichtman said he was predicting. After 2000 Lichtman said I am simply predicting who will actually win the Presidency. And in 2016 he predicted Trump. But the issue in 2000 came down to a very close election in one state, and its electoral votes. It's easy to see something like that happening again in 2024. That said, Lichtman also refused to say it would be a close election. In 2012, Romney had a teeny (less than 1 %) lead in the RCP average for much of October. The final RCP average showed Obama winning by 0.7 %. Obama won by 4 %. Lichtmann is a historian. I think the right way to understand him is that he thinks Biden is probably going to have the winds of history at his back. Just like Obama did in 2012. TotallyOz, Marc in Calif and Bingo T Dog 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyOz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Thanks for this thought provoking piece. I think the title says it all and we should just accept this as the rule of law and forget November. Is this legal? Or, any more legal than an insurrectionist being President? Still, I like him but I did think he would be a one term President. I wish he would review his options and think that perhaps he will will. He is a great man. Sometimes great men have to do the thing they hate the most. stevenkesslar, Lucky, kokopelli3 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmmetK Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Is there an emoji for a big yawn? Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn. Alan Lichtman is a long-time democratic hack. He even ran for Senator in the dem primary in Maryland..... and lost. There is absolutely ZERO reason for anyone to care what he has to say. I'll place my money were the all the betting money is going rather than some democrat lackey who nobody knows and nobody except dem partisans care what he has to say. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/ I can post literally thousands of videos, much more logical and less partisan, than this one. I don't waste my time. And I don't waste my time watching this one either. New headline: Dem hack predicts Biden victory. What next? There is gambling going on at Rick's Care? lmfao! Lucky and Marc in Calif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bingo T Dog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 32 minutes ago, EmmetK said: Is there an emoji for a big yawn? Marc in Calif and stevenkesslar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted February 17 Author Members Share Posted February 17 23 hours ago, EmmetK said: I'll place my money were the all the betting money is going rather than some democrat lackey who nobody knows and nobody except dem partisans care what he has to say. Are you and @Moses the same person? He does an amazing job of demonstrating in text what it is like to be a Russian who has his head totally up Putin's ass and can only spout propagands. You do the same thing, only regarding a different asshole: Trump. Your head is so far up Trump's ass your brains must now be his shit. Lichtman correctly predicted every election since 1984 in advance. Including Trump in 2016. But of course you don't give a shit. Facts were very bad to you. They must have really abused you. Because you have ZERO tolerance for facts. Including how Trump lost in 2020. And how he now owes like half a billion for being a male pig and a crook. A half a billion which he probably doesn't have. But you are right about one thing, @EmmetK. Lichtman is a Democratic joke. Only losers and idiots would pay attention to a word Lichtman says! Trump congratulated professor who predicted his win: ‘good call’ Quote The political historian who predicted President Trump would win the 2016 election says Trump personally reached out to congratulate him on his accurate prediction. What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? Why are you so disgusted by facts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moses Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Dreams, dreams... EU already makes plan what to do when (pay attention: now "if", but "when") Trump will get power again, it is mostly about NATO. Biden is clearly looser in this game, despite Putin just told, that Russia prefers Biden to Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marc in Calif Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/16/2024 at 9:39 AM, EmmetK said: There is absolutely ZERO reason for anyone to care what he has to say. He's correctly predicted the election outcomes for the past 40 years. He correctly predicted Drump's victory in 2016 and Drumpf's loss in 2020. Those are some pretty good reasons, yet you can only make ad hominem attackes on Alan Lichtman. That means you've got absolutely nothing. 0️⃣ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavica Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmmetK Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 22 minutes ago, Marc in Calif said: He's correctly predicted the election outcomes for the past 40 years. He correctly predicted Drump's victory in 2016 and Drumpf's loss in 2020. Those are some pretty good reasons, yet you can only make ad hominem attackes on Alan Lichtman. That means you've got absolutely nothing. 0️⃣ coming from someone who can't locate Rafah on a map..... LMFAO Marc in Calif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bingo T Dog Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, EmmetK said: coming from someone who can't locate Rafah on a map..... LMFAO Is that the place where the IDF killed the hostages by mistake?? Marc in Calif and stevenkesslar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted February 18 Author Members Share Posted February 18 4 hours ago, Moses said: Dreams, dreams... EU already makes plan what to do when (pay attention: now "if", but "when") Trump will get power again, it is mostly about NATO. Biden is clearly looser in this game, despite Putin just told, that Russia prefers Biden to Trump. The Keys system is itself a testament to Russian-US collaboration, before your mass murdering sadist turned your economy and culture into a human fertilizer economy. Vladimir Kellis-Borok proved two things. First, you can be a Russian named Vlad who is not a mass murderer who undermines democracy. Second, you can actually love democracy and make a real contribution to it. The way Lichtman tells his story, Kellis-Borok approached him about developing a system to predict elections, the way he had success as a leading geophysicist in predicting earthquakes. In both cases using algorithms and pattern recognition techniques. Lichtman says his Russian partner in crime loved democracy. The system has been wildly successful, and has become Lichtman's claim to fame. In a better world, Russians and Americans would be collaborating around democracy, like this. The reason the system works is that it is predicated on two things: 1) democracy works, 2) people in democracies make somewhat reliable and predictable decisions based on important facts. Like how the economy is doing. Whether their POTUS is a constantly moving scandal like Trump. War and peace. The proof of concept is that the US has been around and flourished, as a democracy, for centuries. You can't say that about the USSR. Or the Russian Federation. And certainly not about Vlad's Glorious Corrupt Economy For Turning Russians Into Fertilizer In Ukraine. Sadism and mass murder is just less of a winner than democracy, it turns out. 4 hours ago, Moses said: Biden is clearly looser in this game, despite Putin just told, that Russia prefers Biden to Trump. In every post, you kindly confirm what I say about you. You are immune to facts. And your brain is filled with Putin's lies and sadism and propaganda. In this case, Lichtman has clearly predicted the results of every race for President in advance since 1984, using a system of facts. He is likely to predict Biden will win in 2024. If he does that this Summer, he will likely be correct once again. You can tolerate that as much as Putin could tolerate Navalny. Since you can't admit there is a genocide in Ukraine, you certainly can't admit that democracy works. Trump and Putin are the antithesis of all these concepts. They will be remembered by history as losers. And speaking of predictions: GLOBAL FORECAST 2023 The Atlantic Council surveyed 167 experts in various fields to make predictions about how the world will change in the next decade. The single most surprising and significant prediction is that Russia will collapse. 40 % of these experts said Russia will collapse. As opposed to 8 % who think the US will collapse, and 6 % who think China will collapse. This is, of course, why your pit bull President is Master Xi's obedient lapdog. And not the other way around. Have fun while it lasts. Master Xi knows he needs the US and Western economies about 99 % more than he needs his murderous pit bull turning people into fertilizer and fucking up the global economy. Mass murder only gets you so far. A majority (58 %) of the experts said no country will use a nuclear weapon in the next decade. But 14 % predict Russia will, and 10 % predict North Korea will. 3 % think the US will, and 1 % think China will. Again, Vlad and Russia lead the list of predictable mass murdering sadists. But your head is so full of Putin' lies and propaganda that, unlike Kellis-Borok, you can't see facts. Let alone larger truths. Marc in Calif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmmetK Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, Bingo T Dog said: Is that the place where the IDF killed the hostages by mistake?? Nope. that's the place, after going on a middle east/Gaza rant, @Marc in Calif couldn't identify.... Marc in Calif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmmetK Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, Bingo T Dog said: Is that the place where the IDF killed the hostages by mistake?? And I'll take all of the polls and the smart money betting over the word of a left-wing democrat loser who couldn't even muster 2% when he ran for Senator... lol. stevenkesslar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted February 18 Author Members Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, EmmetK said: And I'll take all of the polls and the smart money betting over the word of a left-wing democrat loser who couldn't even muster 2% when he ran for Senator... lol. I give you credit for at least finding a fact you like. See? Facts are not monsters, @EmmetK. They won't hurt you. But saying Lichtman's 100 % accurate predictions are wrong because he once took a longshot run at a Senate seat (he is a historian, not a politician) is like saying Donald Trump is 100 % monogamous because he is married to Melania (He is a rapist and sexual harasser, not a loving and decent husband). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moses Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Why so many hysterics from country of Congress of dynasties? Kostik 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kostik Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/18/2024 at 7:56 AM, stevenkesslar said: He is a rapist and sexual harasser, not a loving and decent husband And his rival is a murderer and a maniac, and even a drug addict. He is currently suffering from dementia. "God save America." 🤣 stevenkesslar and EmmetK 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmmetK Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 All the smart money is on Trump.... by a landslide. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/ I don't understand why the race hasn't shifted since that democrat fortune teller predicted a Dementia Joe Biden victory? lol. People who bet money have insight. They are putting their money where their collective mouths are. And they smartly give ZERO credibility to that democrat LOSER..... stevenkesslar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 A long article and a long interview, both of which I found very on target about whether Joe Biden is a drag on the Democratic Party. The Brokered Convention That Could Break the Democrats Those who want to replace Biden on the 2024 ticket are glossing over the brutality and chaos that would ensure. I was both nodding and laughing when I read that article. Because the author gets it. I could argue that he is only painting one side of the picture: the bad things that could happen if Biden stepped aside (or just died between now and November. But I feel the way he does. The bad things he goes through are almost certain to happen. If Democrats suddenly picked someone other than Biden it would tear the party apart. And no poll in any state, country, or part of the universe suggests [put in the name of any Democrat] would do any better against Trump. Dumping Biden would be lots of guaranteed pain for little or no gain. Like the author, I think it would probably leave Democrats in worse shape. And Lichtman would certainly agree. It would be two more nails in the coffin - no incumbent and party food fight - out of his 13 Keys. Hunter Walker's and Luppe B. Luppen's "The Truce: Progressives, Centrists and the Future of the Democratic Party" That book, which is brand new, is mentioned in the first article. It adds lots of depth to an argument about why hoping Joe Biden goes away could be a death wish for Democrats who care about unity and winning in 2024. I just learned about the book. But there's a great 27 minute podcast interview in that hyperlink that goes over some of the main points with the authors. I think pretty much everyone does underestimate Biden's ability to knit people in his party together - whether it comes to passing laws, or winning elections. As the authors argue, 2016 was a complete disaster for Democrats. In large part because of the unresolved food fight between Hillarycrats and Sandernistas. Biden was able to do a better job of unifying the party in 2020. It of course helped that Trump is the great unifier of Democrats and (sometimes) Independents who want anyone but Trump. But Biden did a lot of work, as the authors argue, to bring progressive and centrists together and turn compromise ideas into laws. If you take Biden out of the equation, would unity among Democrats be harder to achieve? Probably, I think. For sure, the risk of trying it in 2024 doesn't make much sense to me. No matter how old Biden is. It's just very hard for me to believe that if you give voters the words "chaos" and "stability" and ask them to pick who stands for what, most voters would say Trump and Speaker McCarthy/Johnson/Maybe Some Other Guy would be the poster children for "stability". This also puts Gaza and "Genocide Joe" in a somewhat different light. It is an indicator that, at any minute and for any reason, "the truce" could end. And progressives and centrist Democrats could be in open war. There is a bit of that with Gaza already. But it makes sense that this is something that was not really in the control of Biden, or the United States. The things that were under Democrats' control - like replacing Pelosi with a new leader and recovering from the debacle of Build Back Better - actually did work in a relatively unified and low conflict way. Gaza, and the bombing of it, has mostly been in the control of Bibi Netanyahu and Hamas. That is not a good place for Biden, or anyone, to be. It would be an even greater tragedy if Bibi and Hamas, in addition to fucking up peace in Israel, also manage to fuck up the truce Biden did help build among Democrats. Call me an optimist. But I at least hope that lots of Millennials and Gen Z will view it this way by November. Not all young voters are progressive. And not all progressives are young. But these authors are right that younger progressives were able to actually win some of what they wanted by having Biden (and Obama) build political and legislative coalitions that could do it. If they elect Trump, in large part by just not voting or voting third party, that all goes bye bye. That's exactly what happened in 2017. Or, to put it in the even bleaker terms the author of the first article uses: Quote It’s definitely possible to imagine that some candidate, free from the gerontological concerns that dog Biden, might have an advantage against Trump. ... But if Democrats choose to make this leap, they should make sure they do what they failed to do in 2020: peer over the edge of the cliff from which they’re about to hurl themselves, and steel themselves for the long descent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marc in Calif Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 On 2/19/2024 at 7:57 AM, EmmetK said: All the smart money is on Trump.... by a landslide. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/ In your desperation, you're now clowning around with betting odds (🥳) as a predictor of election success -- more than nine months before the election. 🤡 The funniest thing about your poll? Michelle Obama is is in third place with 9% of the poll! 😎 Here's the truth about betting polls, which you don't seem to understand or even know: A quick note on presidential election odds: this betting market often can act as a sort of wish fulfillment for people's political leanings. There is nothing that indicates Michelle Obama should have the third-best odds to win the 2024 presidential election, but that's the case. As you'll see below, she also has the second-best odds to win the 2024 Democratic nomination for president. That's a reflection of how the money has come in on this particular market, as things can get kind of weird the further down the presidential election odds board you go. stevenkesslar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted February 26 Author Members Share Posted February 26 On 2/19/2024 at 7:57 AM, EmmetK said: All the smart money is on Trump.... by a landslide. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/ I don't understand why the race hasn't shifted since that democrat fortune teller predicted a Dementia Joe Biden victory? lol. People who bet money have insight. They are putting their money where their collective mouths are. And they smartly give ZERO credibility to that democrat LOSER..... I already posted this in a different thread where you posted the same betting odds. So I will repeat it here. In 2016 the same betting odds gave Hillary an 88 % chance of winning and Trump a 13 % chance of winning. They were wrong ................... by a landslide. In 2016 Lichtman predicted Trump would win. He was right. If you want to believe Trump will win by a landslide, @EmmetK, I would suggest you go with these facts: Why Americans pine for the Trump economy That's a great recent article on why people may be feeling nostalgia for the "Trump economy". Here's a comparison of their first three years: Gas prices up 33 % under Biden and 10 % under Trump. Groceries up 21 % under Biden and 2 % under Trump New vehicles up 19 % under Biden and down 1 % under Trump. Case closed. If I wanted to make an argument for why Trump will win, I'd go with this. Forget about impeachment or immigration, mostly. I'd just make the election about inflation. And Trump is the best Republican to make this case. Since he actually was the President when prices were so much lower. And therein lies the problem that smart Republicans understand and keep talking about. How likely is it that Donald Trump can make the election about anything other than Donald Trump? Are there betting odds for that, @EmmetK? Because, if there are, my guess is that it is 100 % likely Trump will make the election about Trump, and not inflation. He has some very disciplined campaign managers now who I am sure will keep him on message. Except on most days, where he goes off message and talks about how Putin can attack NATO allies. And he wants to win so he can get revenge. And that's before he's pressed by Biden and the media on whether he will push for a national abortion ban and an official federal policy of climate change denial. Whether Trump is on message or not, Dementia Joe and Democrats will be on message about democracy, abortion, and all the good economic news that counters the Republican message that the economy sucks. Assuming people believe that record middle class net worth, record stock markets, record low unemployment, and now 3 % inflation are all actually good economic news. If I were betting I would definitely double down on Lichtman's ideas that voters are smart. And ultimately the fundamentals matter most. In addition to Trump's inability to not make an election he is in about Trump, here's something else to worry about, @EmmetK. If inflation and higher prices are going to drive the election and lead to a Republican landslide, why didn't that happen in 2022? Inflation was 7.1 % in November 2022, double where it is today. Most of that big increase in gas prices and groceries had happened by November 2022. And yet Republicans won 9 House seats. Democrats gained one Senate seat. If 7 % inflation wasn't high enough or intense enough to deliver a Republican red wave in 2022, how exactly does 3 % inflation deliver a Republican landslide in 2024? If you add the whole misery index, CPI + unemployment, it is lower today than the month Trump left office after losing. Why rehire the guy who delivered more misery? I think there is definitely nostalgia for the "Trump economy". Which basically means lower prices. Not Trump's all around psychodrama and lies. But when Trump makes the election about Trump, and Biden makes it about democracy and abortion and taking the good economy with the bad, how does 3 % inflation lock in a Trump landslide? Help me out here. I actually do think right now Israel is a bigger problem for Biden than inflation. That is close to being an objective fact. When inflation was at its worst, Biden and Trump were in a dead heat. That started to change in October 2023. While it may not be 100 % about Israel, that makes a lot more sense than saying the problem is Nov. 2023 was soaring inflation. And the polls make it crystal clear the people who shifted in the last months of 2023 were mostly younger voters, who identify mostly as Democrats. Plus some Independents. That's who Biden has to worry about most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marc in Calif Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 On 2/17/2024 at 5:02 PM, EmmetK said: coming from someone who can't locate Rafah on a map..... LMFAO You keep saying that. Over and over. And over again. It always amuses me that you can't even remember what was said only a few months ago! And like the true troll-bot that you are, you believe that it discredits me in anything else I say. 🥳 But you will never find a direct quote proving that particular statement is true. Is dementia creeping up on you, KlownKar K? 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted March 10 Author Members Share Posted March 10 So I stumbled upon something else that predicts a Biden victory in November. Before I state it, let me summarize what I like about Lichtman. Other than he has been right every time since 1984. Even Trump sent him a personal note in 2016 saying, "Good call, professor." What I like about his system is that it is based on objective pattern recognition, which he developed with a Russian who was good at predicting earthquakes. When the economy is growing, when there is no recession, when there is an incumbent and no party conflict, when there is no scandal. etc ... then the incumbent party is likely to win. So this is another thing about patterns. To be clear, that chart is not meant to make predictions, or explain causal relationships. I just went looking for a chart about average patterns of the stock market during presidential election years. Usually it's just one line: here's what happens, on average, in a year someone is running for President. I've never seen one like this before. Where it basically says, "Tell me who wins, and then I can tell you how the stock market does on average." Of course, we have no idea who will win. What we do know is the S & P is up 8 % year to date. Which is better than the S & P usually does in a year when the incumbent party wins. In a year when the incumbent loses, the S & P is usually down up to 5 % around now. So historical patterns suggest the stock market's bullishness is also bullish for Biden. While this is not meant to explain a causal relationship, it does make sense that if the stock market is weak, it probably reflects a weak economy. A strong stock market probably reflects a strong economy. But don't tell any Trump supporters. It may spoil the fun they are having thinking we are in a recession, things are awful, and Trump will win. That bullish chart above makes perfect sense to me. That's an amazing chart, which is bullish for Biden, too. What it's saying is if you bought $1,000 worth of NVDA in January 1, 2019, it would have been worth about $14,500 on January 15, 2024 when that chart was made. The article asks where NVDA will be in five years, It's now about seven weeks later. As of March 8, 2024 the same $1,000 would be worth $26,800. NVDA has almost doubled this year. i don't own it. I own SOXL, a tech/chips ETF of which NVDA is a major component. The shares I bought last Fall have tripled. The shares my nephew bought in Fall 2022 have gone up 7x. Young people like him are having a hard time buying homes. Now he and his wife can buy one for cash, if they choose. Not everybody owns tech stocks, or stocks. But average net worth is up 30 % since 2019. The main reason why is 2 in 3 Americans own homes. Biden has something to do with this, good and bad. He's getting the rap for high inflation and high interest rates. That's fair. He's not getting much credit for the economic growth, even though the CHIPs Act and the infrastructure bill and all the technology investments they triggered have a lot to do with both of those charts above. I do have to bet on this one, and that chart above makes perfect sense to me. As that chart suggests, there probably will be a stock market correction soon. And these stocks like NVDA that are flying straight up like space ships will calm down for a few months and correct. But I'll also bet that the rally will continue at least through the election, as happens in a typical Presidential election year when the incumbent wins. This is all bullish for Biden. And he does deserve credit for getting infrastructure and technology investments made that Trump completely failed at. Just like Trump failed at taking people's health care away. When that debate happens, which is just starting, it's going to help Biden and hurt Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmmetK Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Alan Lichtman? lmfao! stevenkesslar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted March 11 Author Members Share Posted March 11 On 3/10/2024 at 6:56 AM, EmmetK said: Alan Lichtman? lmfao! Sweet! Go ahead and laugh. It will make it even more satisfying for me when Biden wins. You can have two theories about Americans, @EmmetK. 1. Americans are essentially stupid. They see a dumb Trump ad and say, "Yes. I am sheep. Feed me 30 seconds of dumb and I am yours." or 2. Americans are essentially smart. They care about the economy, war and peace, social order, and important things. That's what determines who wins. You are the poster child for the first theory. You are deeply committed to stupid. Even when your own cult leader says, "Good call, professor" after he predicts your cult leader will win in 2016, you have to process out of your brain that your own cult leader is smart enough to acknowledge intelligence sometimes. That is how deeply committed to stupid you are. Lichtman is committed to intelligence. He's got a good explanation for why people vote the way they do. He's been right in 1984. And 1988. And 1992. And 1996. And 2000. And 2004. And 2008. And 2012. And 2016. And 2020. But this is completely irrelevant to you. You are that completely dedicated to stupid. Your brain is so wired to cult that you will take that 30 second ad and say that's all it takes. But Lichtman says the ads don't predict who wins. Lichtman just did it again a few days ago. That headline is inaccurate. Lichtman did not say Biden will defeat Trump. He said it is a fluid situation. Things can change. 2020 is a perfect example. Lichtman has as much as said that if the election were in January 2020, Trump would have won based on his Keys. But the economy tanked, changing two of his keys. The social chaos of Summer 2020 turned his social order key against an incumbent for the first time since 1968. You can say Lichtman is a flaming asshole. But when he predicted in September 2016 that Trump would win, people thought he was nuts. He was correct. He was correct again in 2020. So his point is clear. A lot would have to change for him to predict Biden is going to lose. A recession would do it. A sudden and stunning defeat in Ukraine would do it. But, while he didn't spell it out, neither might do it alone. He's saying "a lot" would have to change. Several things would have to suddenly turn against the incumbent, just like they did in 2020. If it happened in 2020, it can certainly happen again in 2024. But, right now, Lichtman is saying Biden is on track to win. If you want to be even more of a fool than your criminal cult leader, and say, "You're stupid, professor. Bad call," go ahead. It's what smart people expect of people who are deeply committed to stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members stevenkesslar Posted March 11 Author Members Share Posted March 11 On 3/10/2024 at 6:56 AM, EmmetK said: Alan Lichtman? lmfao! Okay. I had to get the logical part out of my system. Now that I have, let's go with the emotional part. Donald Trump is the smartest man alive, who knows more than anyone else, and was the best President ever. That much is self-evident. How else can we explain his overwhelming re-election in 2020, and the stunning string of Republican victories ever since? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
