Members stevenkesslar Posted December 19, 2023 Members Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Moses said: Number is much lower than 100,000. It is clearly visible from Russian and American researches. Total number declared by CIA is loss of 315,000. Typical ratio injured : died is 3:1. Most soldiers dies on war because of blood loss. Than more far are hospitals then smaller is ratio, then closer are hospitals to contact line, then ratio is bigger. If we will take "typical" ratio then Russia lost 315,00 / 4 = 78,750. In Gaza Israel has 10:1 because hospitals aren't far. In Ukraine I think ratio should be 5:1 - 6:1. And that means what Russia lost 40,000 - 45,000. So, max died as per CIA should be around 80,000, but most probably number is around 50,000. Number one, I don't trust any numbers from either side. It is part of the propaganda of war. My guess is that both Ukraine and Russia have lost hundreds of thousands of troops. And that neither Putin nor Zelenskyy want to admit that many of their soldiers were killed. But I'll go with your number. And I'll add the assumption that whether it is 50,000 or 500,00 or 5 million dead Russians is irrelevant. Russians are, by definition, Putin's pigs for slaughter. If Vlad says, "Go die, pig" they go die. Maybe their family gets money for the dead pig. But they are still pigs, that are there for Vlad to slaughter as needed. If they don't like it, they flee. If you see yourself as a human with a brain who wants a career, that's a no brainer. Get to Europe, or America, if you can. I will again thank you. Posting that budget, which led me to research what it meant, made my day. You are awesome, @Moses. Thank you. My assumption, based in large part on John Mearsheimer, is that Russia does and always has had the upper hand. They have more soldiers, and more bullets. Or, if you prefer, Vlad has so many more plgs for slaughter. Of course, that only makes sense if you have a sadist and butcher who is willing to turn millions of Russians into fertilizer. And Putin clearly is. He's super rich and powerful already. And he's as narcissistic as Trump. So he thinks history will make him look awesome. Just like Trump does. If I follow my own logic, that means the longer a war of attrition goes on, the more likely Putin wins. Of course, the sanctions were supposed to bleed Putin's economy out before he could win. But that hasn't happened. One big reason is much of the world, like India and Turkey, doesn't want to take sides. Which is understandable. And in some ways even good. If the US has less power to bend the world its way, we won't invade a country like Iraq again for a long time. I can live with that. That said, it does not look good when the only countries really on Vlad's side are Iran and North Korea, two authoritarian basket cases. As a former prostitute, I'll put it this way. Putin is like the whore who has to pay money to get his dick sucked. What you helped me realize is that this war is incredibly expensive for Putin. I'll put it this way. If Americans or Europeans had to dedicate almost a third of their budgets to defending Ukraine, that's a no brainer. Of course we would let Putin have Ukraine, and kill as many children as he wanted. America is just NOT going to spend one third of our budget to defend Ukraine. But now Putin has to spend one third of his budget to attack Ukraine, and kill hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians. That's not good for Russia. Oh. And he has to blow up the debt 50 % in one year just to kill hundreds of thousands of Russians. What a plan! Even America, which has a huge debt problem, couldn't figure how to increase our debt 50 % in one year in order to slaughter lots of Americans and Mexicans. So that fucks the Russian economy for a generation. And the Russian economy was fucked, anyway. The other really important thing I realized, thanks to you, is that now that we know Ukraine, and NATO and US military planners, were overconfident, we can make corrections. Just like Putin made corrections after he fucked up badly in 2022. To oversimplify it, it seems like the situation now is that if you move a meter, you die. Some drone will kill you, or the tank you are in. Which makes it clear why massing forces to overwhelm Russian defenses would be super difficult. I'm the worst military planner in the world. But it seems like there is one inevitable conclusion: whether they want to or not, Ukrainians will have switch to defense and small attacks. And just kill and kill and kill and kill and kill and kill as many Russians as they possibly can. One by one. With drones. With artillery. With whatever they can. Everyone in Russia should understand that Ukraine is where Russians go to become meat. Or fertilizer. There may be more than enough men in Russia to do that for 5 or 10 or 20 years. But there's not enough money. And Putin is proving that. Anyone who gets grade school arithmetic could get it if they see that budget in English. Israel has proven that Golda Meir was right. As Biden has now said again and again, she told him as a young Senator that Israel will always fight back. Hard. Ukraine is proving to be exactly the same. Ukraine will kill Russians every day for the next 50 years, if need be. I don't think Vlad has the budget for that. This is exactly what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. The portion of the US budget that went to fighting those wars was a fraction of what Vlad is having to spend just this year. He literally can't keep it up. The problem in America was political will. Meaning the political will to invade Iraq was never there at all for many, like in my case. I opposed it from Day One. Or the political will diminished over time. As Iraqis made it clear they hate us and will kill us and want us to die or go away. The expense of it was maybe part of W.'s problem. But the year the US spent the most money on Iraq was 2008. Here is what W.'s 2008 budget statement said. He talked about how he was prioritizing education and health care, and lowering the deficit as a percentage of GDP. Money was not the problem for America. Vlad has it so much worse. He's a sadistic authoritarian. So he can send as many men off to die as he wants. But he can't just invent money. He's going to have to either cut the budget in 2025. Or blow up the Russian debt in a way that brings you right back into the financial mess a younger and less narcissistic Vlad got you out of. Vlad is placing a very expensive bet on Trump's election in 2024. And, to some degree, whether it is intentional or not, Republicans are playing along. So once the US election debate really gets started, this is absolutely what I want Trump to talk about every day. Quote Putin. Praise Putin. I want Trump to talk about how he won in 2020. And how his "hostages" that beat up cops in the Capitol and Honest Vlad are right. Trump is being picked on, and democracy sucks. And if we would just elect Trump again it would make it so much easier for Vlad to end the war. Even if he had to kill hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians. Poor sadistic murderous Vlad. If we don't elect Trump, Vlad might go broke. And have to stop killing Ukrainian children. Americans would NEVER want that, would they? Just wait and see. Maybe Americans will fuck up. We are certainly capable of that. Or maybe Putin and Russia will get a lesson in how democracy works. 😉 Marc in Calif 1 Quote
Moses Posted December 19, 2023 Posted December 19, 2023 58 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: And he has to blow up the debt 50 % in one year What debt you are talking about? State debt in 2023 grew 1.5% By the way: state budget to GDP ratio in US and Russia is the same 36%, but state debt of Russia is less than 20% of GDP, while in US it is 121%. Quote
Moses Posted December 19, 2023 Posted December 19, 2023 49 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: a lesson in how democracy works everyone seen that "lession" in Iraq, Libia, Syria... The arrogant and shameless American military is storming into the country. I just have no idea why you call it "democracy". Marc in Calif 1 Quote
Moses Posted December 19, 2023 Posted December 19, 2023 46 minutes ago, Moses said: What debt you are talking about? State debt in 2023 grew 1.5% Oh, I got where you found +50%. It is not enough to translate the picture, you need to understand what you see in it. +50% on the picture isn't "debt", it is "debt service" - interests. In total state debt now is $56.6 billions. Interests are fraction from that number, depends on currency and bonds it is 5-12%. At first 6 months 2023 Russia paid debt service $929 millions (not "billions", just "millions"). Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted December 19, 2023 Members Posted December 19, 2023 8 hours ago, Moses said: I just have no idea why you call it "democracy". I know. Thanks for being honest. Russia is NOT a democracy. So what happens in a democracy like the US or Ukraine must be perplexing to many Russians. You live in a country run by an authoritarian and butcher who kills or jails his political opponents and won't hold real elections. Sorry about that, @Moses. It kinda sucks. ☹️ forky123, alvnv, Marc in Calif and 1 other 2 2 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted December 19, 2023 Members Posted December 19, 2023 9 hours ago, Moses said: What debt you are talking about? State debt in 2023 grew 1.5% By the way: state budget to GDP ratio in US and Russia is the same 36%, but state debt of Russia is less than 20% of GDP, while in US it is 121%. That's true. The US is hardly one to talk about having a massive debt to GDP ratio. At the margin, that's probably part of why Republicans are balking. We have a huge deficit, and the war looks like an endless stalemate. Why spend more? That said, I think the much bigger political issue is that Republicans just don't want Biden to win. So if inertia hands Putin a victory and lets him slaughter Ukrainians like pigs as he wishes, who cares? My main point is that it's become much clearer to me, thanks to you, just how desperate Putin is for Trump to win. So that will be a big debate in 2024. Do Americans agree that we need Trump again, so he can hand Ukraine over to Putin? And then Putin can slaughter Ukrainians like pigs and rescue his weak economy? Or, is it better to help Ukraine so that Putin's best play is to continuously turn Russian men into meat and fertilizer? And have to pay off the families of the hundreds of thousands of Russians he turns into meat? That's a great debate for America to have. In terms of the debt, the budget says it increases debt 50 %. I don't speak Russian. And most articles I can find with that graphic explaining the budget are ones Google doesn't offer to translate. Here, again, is what the article I cited above said: Quote Servicing the national debt will cost Russia more and more. In three years, these costs will exceed the costs of healthcare and education. In 2024, 2.3 trillion rubles will be allocated from the federal budget for servicing the national debt - after 1.5 trillion in 2023. And by 2026, the amount will increase to 3.3 trillion and amount to almost10% of all expenses. This is still much less than in the default year of 1998, when the country gave almost 40% of its budget to creditors, but is already twice as much as in 2022, when this share was only 5%. So I was correct in my original claim, and you were wrong. Putin's War/Butchering Economy spends more than ever before on defense. Which reduces spending for everything else - including health care and education. The future of Russia suffers so that Putin can spend huge amounts of money turning Russians into meat and fertilizer now. I read about half a dozen more articles on Putin's 2024 budget by Western media or think tanks, in English. And they all use the same numbers and paint the same picture. This paragraph from a European think tank in particular really nailed the main point I am making, about how desperate Putin is: Quote ‘With planned reductions in military spending in 2025–26 after a sharp increase in 2024, and with the Russian presidential election due in 2024, Putin appears to be showing his intent to bring the war to a successful conclusion within the year,’ said SIPRI Director Dan Smith. ‘There currently seems to be little prospect of a significant military breakthrough in Ukraine for either side. While Putin may be counting on the West’s support for the war fragmenting, the West is counting on the war bankrupting Putin’s regime. Neither assumption is a sure thing, neither is impossible.’ And this article makes the same point, in a slightly different way: Quote What comes next? The Finance Ministry believes that, in 2025, there will be no need to spend so much on the military and the defense sector. From this point, the government will return to its familiar budget rules to limit expenditure. However, this seems more like wishful thinking than realistic analysis. Neither the Finance Ministry, nor the government, knows how and when the war will end, or whether the West will impose more effective sanctions on Russia to reduce its revenues. In addition, oil prices are fundamentally unpredictable. The numbers speak for themselves. Putin is spending an enormous amount of money in one year, 2024. Presumably based on the idea that he won't have to do it again in 2025 or 2026. In theory, I suppose he could believe that even if Biden is POTUS Ukrainians will run out of will and surrender. But that seems very unlikely. The polls say the opposite. 1 % or so of Ukrainians are fleeing the country to avoid being drafted. 96 % or so of the country support the military and will kill as many Russians as it takes to win. So much more likely is that Putin hopes Trump will win. And that Republicans will do everything they can to undermine Biden. And Ukraine just gets thrown under the bus - like pigs for slaughter. It's a guess, not a fact. But that's my read of Putin's budget. He is counting on Trump winning and handing over Ukraine, or chunks of it, like pigs for slaughter. Putin has a big 2024 problem anyway. As several articles I cited say, his budget is based on lots of wishful thinking. That said, if his economy grows slower and oil prices are lower and Russian men just keep turning into fertilizer in Ukraine, Putin will survive. And, in theory, he can change the 2025 budget if Biden wins and he is in an endless stalemate. He's a very resilient butcher and sadist. What is also clearer to me is that Ukraine probably needs to switch from offense to defense. To vastly oversimplify, the new thing about war - thanks to cheap drones - is this: WHEN YOU MOVE, YOU DIE. So if Ukrainians are moving on offense, they are very easy to kill. But the same applies if Russians try to advance. Part of the reason Russians are doing better is they just took some of the things Ukrainians were doing in 2022 and did the same to them - like drones. So now Ukrainians can put Russians in the same death traps. Focusing on defense is a political problem for Zelenskyy, because polls suggest most Ukrainians want to take back the land Russia took. That was obviously what the 2023 game plan was. It failed. It was one battle in a war. So move on. It's impossible to tell what the Ukrainian military wants, what the US military wants, what NATO wants, and how these goals may differ or be in conflict. But one thing for sure is that if there is less money flowing from the US and EU, it forces Ukraine to scale down their goals. Taking back Crimea seems more and more like a fantasy. Just holding on to what they have may be much more realistic. And it is 1000 % clear that Ukrainians don't want to give the territory Putin already took away to make peace with a sadistic butcher. So there's no doubt they will happily kill any Russian soldier who tries to take more of their territory away. So many Russians, so much fertilizer! The new rule could be this: when a Russian soldier moves, he dies. The US and EU should be making millions of drones. Ideally with the name of every Russian soldier alive - and soon to be dead - on it. Surely the US and Germany can outproduce Iran! Let Putin spend enormous amounts of money he doesn't have every year. And the primary victory he wins is to gain nothing, and turn more and more Russians into Ukrainian fertilizer. If they don't like being Ukrainian fertilizer, maybe they should simply leave a country a butcher forced them to attack without provocation. That's exactly what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. If you don't think it will happen in Ukraine, you are dreaming. I'm being very gross, but honest. This is the debate the US needs to have. The alternative is electing Trump so he can hand Ukraine over to Russia, hammer a big nail into the coffin of democracy and NATO, and let Putin slaughter Ukrainians like pigs, as he wishes. That's democracy. floridarob 1 Quote
Moses Posted December 19, 2023 Posted December 19, 2023 2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: Or, is it better to help Ukraine so that Putin's best play is to continuously turn Russian men into meat and fertilizer? Ukraine can't "fertilize". You already know what Ukraine lose, or for sure will lose. It is war till the last Ukrainian sponsored by West. Ukraine haven't "meat" for to continue "meat storms". Today Zelensky announced, what Ukrainian army requests new doze of war fuel - 500,000 "fresh meat". https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67767246 Quote
Moses Posted December 19, 2023 Posted December 19, 2023 2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: I read about half a dozen more articles on Putin's 2024 budget by Western media or think tanks, in English. Don't waste your time. There is as maximum half-truth. Do you remember what announced Joe Alzheimer after first set of sanctions? "Rubble will be 200, Russian economic will be ruined". Nothing of that became real. Zero. Russia fixed logistic chains. West since that time implemented already 12 waves of "sanctions". And all medias already agreed: sanctions don't work. Russian GDP is growing every month, currency is stable, export is growing. Even max oil prices $60 are ignored. "Think tanks" lies. Or draw pictures that pleased their bosses. You may choose. alvnv and Marc in Calif 2 Quote
Moses Posted December 19, 2023 Posted December 19, 2023 3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: But the same applies if Russians try to advance. Russia don't need to advance. It is enough to stay in fortifications and utilize "meat storms". And from time to time to destroy Ukrainian industry for to force country to live only on sponsor moneys. Soon or late war will be finished in the favor of Russia. Zelynskiy's regime will have end as soon as money or "meat" will ends. alvnv 1 Quote
Bingo T Dog Posted December 19, 2023 Author Posted December 19, 2023 https://www.alternet.org/mcconnell-invokes-wife-hitlerian-remarks/ Seems others know Plump was referring to LEGAL immigrants also. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
forky123 Posted December 19, 2023 Posted December 19, 2023 32 minutes ago, Moses said: Russia don't need to advance. It is enough to stay in fortifications and utilize "meat storms". And from time to time to destroy Ukrainian industry for to force country to live only on sponsor moneys. Soon or late war will be finished in the favor of Russia. Zelynskiy's regime will have end as soon as money or "meat" will ends. Do you read what you write. You absolutely disgust me. floridarob, Marc in Calif, alvnv and 1 other 2 2 Quote
EmmetK Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 42 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said: https://www.alternet.org/mcconnell-invokes-wife-hitlerian-remarks/ Seems others know Plump was referring to LEGAL immigrants also. Your own link provided shows that Trump was talking about illegals. You either didn't bother reading your own link, or as we now know, YOU LIED. Don't try to dig out of the hole you dug for yourself. It's too deep.... especially with Alternet.com, whose readership is in double digits. You lied, lied again, and then lied a third time. You have ZERO crdibility. alvnv and Marc in Calif 2 Quote
Bingo T Dog Posted December 20, 2023 Author Posted December 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, EmmetK said: Your own link provided shows that Trump was talking about illegals. You either didn't bother reading your own link, or as we now know, YOU LIED. Don't try to dig out of the hole you dug for yourself. It's too deep.... especially with Alternet.com, whose readership is in double digits. You lied, lied again, and then lied a third time. You have ZERO crdibility. “Are you comfortable with your party’s leading presidential candidate referring to legal immigrants as people who are poisoning the blood of our country?” CNN’s Manu Raju asked the GOP Minority Leader Tuesday afternoon (video below). Marc in Calif 1 Quote
EmmetK Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said: “Are you comfortable with your party’s leading presidential candidate referring to legal immigrants as people who are poisoning the blood of our country?” CNN’s Manu Raju asked the GOP Minority Leader Tuesday afternoon (video below). lol. A CNN flak asks McConnell a gotcha question, means nothing. YOU posted the link that clearly says ILLEGALS. Your link. Then you lied in the title and lied again and again in your post. Can you ever tell the truth? You have lost all credibility here. Your posts will never be taken seriously after your series of lies. alvnv and Lucky 2 Quote
Bingo T Dog Posted December 20, 2023 Author Posted December 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, EmmetK said: lol. A CNN flak asks McConnell a gotcha question, means nothing. YOU posted the link that clearly says ILLEGALS. Your link. Then you lied in the title and lied again and again in your post. Can you ever tell the truth? You have lost all credibility here. Your posts will never be taken seriously after your series of lies. Oh dear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote
Bingo T Dog Posted December 20, 2023 Author Posted December 20, 2023 Best wishes for the holidays.................. stevenkesslar and Marc in Calif 2 Quote
EmmetK Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, Bingo T Dog said: Best wishes for the holidays.................. Since you can't post honestly, I assume you are wishing me a terrible holiday... Bingo T Dog 1 Quote
alvnv Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 6 hours ago, Moses said: It is war till the last Ukrainian sponsored by West. The way Vovka Durak (Vovka the Fool) is handling his “special military operation” it may end up till the last Russian [soldier] Marc in Calif, stevenkesslar, reader and 1 other 4 Quote
Moses Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 8 hours ago, forky123 said: Do you read what you write. You absolutely disgust me. I do. This is a cynical view of the situation: since peace negotiations with Russia are prohibited by Ukrainian law, war remains the only option. Since Russia has a global advantage in manpower, and taking into account the fact that the attackers suffer 5-10 times more losses than the defenders, the most correct strategy is to stand still in the fortifications and grind the attackers’ manpower. Zelenskiy will do rest. He doesn't care about own citizens. Yesterday he announced additional 500,000 mobilization. “There are no positions. There is no such thing as an observation post or position,” said Oleksiy. “It is impossible to gain a foothold there. It’s impossible to move equipment there.” “It’s not even a fight for survival,” he added. “It’s a suicide mission.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/16/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-river-russia.html Russia declares its readiness for peace talks almost every week. But these should be negotiations from realistic positions, and not unrealistically arrogant “You must withdraw your troops and pay us reparations.” alvnv 1 Quote
Members Pete1111 Posted December 20, 2023 Members Posted December 20, 2023 Even if he read Hitler speeches would he remember what he read? Or is someone reminding him how to pander to his base? That said, Trump has never been shy about his Jewish friends. In the end, Trump is twice the age of Hitler. I don't mean to sound ageist, and bless his heart, but TFG doesn't pull off his Nazi routine well. He sounds less like a screaming der Führer and more like a big balloon wheezing out through its unfastened flap. alvnv, Marc in Calif and Bingo T Dog 1 2 Quote
alvnv Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 6 hours ago, Moses said: Since Russia has a global advantage in manpower, and taking into account the fact that the attackers suffer 5-10 times more losses than the defenders, the most correct strategy is to stand still in the fortifications and grind the attackers’ manpower. Global advantage?! Did you mean significant, or overwhelming? Globally, Russia is in the 9th place behind Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, and Bangladesh; not to mention top 3: India, China and the USA. I won’t be surprised if by the end of 2024 it ends up somewhere between Ethiopia and Democratic Republic of Congo. I’m glad that you finally acknowledged that Russia, as the original attacker, had suffered 5-10 time the losses of the defender - the Ukraine. stevenkesslar and Marc in Calif 2 Quote
Members Latbear4blk Posted December 20, 2023 Members Posted December 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Pete1111 said: Even if he read Hitler speeches would he remember what he read? There is no evidence Trump can read. Lucky, alvnv and stevenkesslar 1 2 Quote
Members JKane Posted December 20, 2023 Members Posted December 20, 2023 Bingo T Dog and alvnv 2 Quote
Members Latbear4blk Posted December 20, 2023 Members Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, JKane said: SHITLER Quote
Moses Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 6 hours ago, alvnv said: as the original attacker Russia took almost all these territories inhabited by ethic Russians without any resistance in 3 days. The only place with significant resistance was Mariupol with Nazi battalion "Azov". And since past autumn 2022 Russia just keeps the same line, fortified it, and now "utilizes" Ukrainian army. Promised summer "Counteroffensive" failed with such significant loses what yesterday they announced next wave of mobilization - next 500,000. Sponsors already spend over $200 mln with zero result. There is ongoing conflict btw president Zelenskiy and Head of army general Zaluzhny, who declared dead end situation in huge article in The Economist (Nov 1st). End of Zelenskiy regime is unavoidable. Quote