Poll PANIC

[Moses]

9 minutes ago, Latbear4blk said:

Biden's age

Dear, I didn't write "age". I wrote :

 

9 minutes ago, Latbear4blk said:

Biden's mental state and physical health

And if somebody again here will sing song about "Putin and his nukes", I have to remind: at least Putin has reason to talk about it - there is going military conflict into which Russia is involved. To what military conflict is involved US for to stimulate Biden to run around with stories "I also have The Code and The Button"? 

[Latbear4blk]

2 minutes ago, Moses said:

Dear, I didn't write "age". I wrote :

 

 

Thanks for the clarification. My point still stands, dear.

 

[Mavica]

 

[Mavica]

29 minutes ago, Moses said:

To what military conflict is involved US for to stimulate Biden to run around with stories "I also have The Code and The Button"? 

 

 

[Bingo T Dog]

[unicorn]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

...While else candidate to president's chair from Reps talks on TV with "just governor" from California?

Your English is incomprehensible. Since you can't write in decent English, for crying out loud, just type in what you need translated into google translate. It won't cost you one kopek. 

Ваш английский непонятен. Поскольку вы не умеете писать на приличном английском, для того, чтобы кричать вслух, просто введите то, что вам нужно, в переводе на Google Translate. Это не будет стоить вам ни копейки.

[stevenkesslar]

The Change Campaign That Can Contest America

I thought that was an interesting set of polls from (Bill) Clintonista pollster Stan Greenberg.  Greenberg is the spouse of Rep. Rosa DeLauro, who more than anyone else is Congress championed the expanded child tax credit that cut child poverty in half in 2021.  Until the Republicans refused to reauthorize it.

The whole 80 page report is worth reading.  Which you can do by hitting the first download button under the PDF image.  This report is consistent with the populist economic ideas that Greenberg has been polling and pushing for years.  Here is a brief summary:

Quote

The most important starting point is recognizing that 76 percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. They desperately want to change. Dwelling on how much you have accomplished turns off these voters.

President Biden and the Democrats, this polls shows, can make major gains in this daunting election year. They need to talk only about the rising prices and the help Democrats are providing (reduced drug costs and the monthly Child Tax Credit). Then, they need to show who they are fighting for.

Quote

The strongest narrative tested in the poll is Biden shifting economic power away from the big corporations to workers. The most popular policy is raising their taxes.

That squares with lots of other polls, and my view of reality.  I recall a poll taken right after the expanded monthly child tax credits went away, thanks to Joe Manchin and lack of Republican support.  There was something like a 7 point shift toward Republicans from voters with kids who got, then lost, the expanded credit.  Whether that's because they were pissed that Democrats let it lapse, or they were pissed about inflation, was unclear.  But from talking with people who got the credit it probably would have offset most of the sting of global inflation in 2022, had the more generous monthly credits continued.

Greenberg's current polls show similar bad news for Biden as every other poll.  If the election were held today, Trump would probably win.  What Greenberg is great at is defining an economic populist message that Biden and Democrats can fight for.  Which, as Greenberg recommends, should start and end with the idea of raising taxes on the rich.  

As I've said in other posts, my bet is mostly that Allan Lichtman is right.  Having an incumbent running, and avoiding a bitter fight between Harris and progressives and  (name a Democratic Governor), probably means that Democrats are better with Biden on top of the ballot.  Despite his weaknesses.  Lichtman argues that the polls are useless.  I mostly agree.  But this polling gives Democrats a good populist message to fight for. 

I got a good reality check on this from two of my Millennial nephews over Thanksgiving.  They both would prefer Biden step aside.  Both are great examples of young voters who disapprove of Biden.  That said, there is no question that while they disapprove of Biden they will never vote for Trump.  One thinks Biden is too liberal, especially on his green energy stuff.  The other thinks Biden is not progressive enough.  Which again underscores that not having Biden could be a recipe for a big, and unhelpful, Democratic food fight.

I summarized Lichtman's Keys theory to both.  Especially the fact that he predicted every race since 1984 accurately, in advance.  And that he thinks not having an incumbent and having an internal food fight would hurt Democrats - just like it did in 2016, as he predicted in Fall 2016.  I loved my progressive nephew's reaction.  "All that makes common sense.  Democrats would be better running an incumbent.  Just not this incumbent!" 

That said, if Biden is the nominee, he'll likely get the votes of many young voters who don't approve of him.  If the alternative is Trump.  Trump himself just helped matters by promising to resurrect his failed "repeal and replace" Obamacare plan.  The ACA is quite popular among Millennials and Gen Z.  It is viewed most favorably by voters aged 18-29, and least favorably (but still net favorable) by voters over 65.

Going after Romney for his distaste for "the 47 %" worked for Obama in 2012.  Despite an economy that was in worse shape than today.  Biden should focus his fire on how Trump's Republicans cut taxes for the Top 10 %.  And how they have opposed the things Democrats have done to help middle class and working class families.

[Moses]

1 hour ago, unicorn said:

Your English is incomprehensible

My English is better than your Russian. So, don't tell me what to do and I will not make advise to where you should go.

[Latbear4blk]

53 minutes ago, Moses said:

My English is better than your Russian.

And you think you can assess that? Clearly, Biden is way more lucid than you are. 

But I have no issues with your English. 

[forky123]

8 hours ago, Latbear4blk said:

It is common knowledge there are concerns about Biden's age. What is beyond understanding is your fondness for Trump and Putin.

+1

[unicorn]

6 hours ago, Moses said:

My English is better than your Russian. So, don't tell me what to do and I will not make advise to where you should go.

My Russian is terrible. However, at least I understand that, and use assistance when I need to. It's far better than overestimating my abilities and appearing like a jackass.

Мой русский ужасен. Однако, по крайней мере, я это понимаю и прибегаю к помощи, когда это необходимо. Это гораздо лучше, чем переоценивать свои способности и выглядеть придурком.

[alvnv]

14 hours ago, Moses said:

And if somebody again here will sing song about "Putin and his nukes", I have to remind: at least Putin has reason to talk about it - there is going military conflict into which Russia is involved.

Involved in the military conflict? Долбоеб (roughly translates as “his stupid ass”) started the motherf*cking war!

Here’s another saying that could apply to the little Russian man and his current war: If you can’t shit - stop torturing your ass (Не можешь срать — не мучай жопу).

[Pete1111]

On 12/1/2023 at 4:51 PM, stevenkesslar said:

The Change Campaign That Can Contest America

I thought that was an interesting set of polls from (Bill) Clintonista pollster Stan Greenberg.  Greenberg is the spouse of Rep. Rosa DeLauro, who more than anyone else is Congress championed the expanded child tax credit that cut child poverty in half in 2021.  Until the Republicans refused to reauthorize it.

The whole 80 page report is worth reading.  Which you can do by hitting the first download button under the PDF image.  This report is consistent with the populist economic ideas that Greenberg has been polling and pushing for years.  Here is a brief summary:

That squares with lots of other polls, and my view of reality.  I recall a poll taken right after the expanded monthly child tax credits went away, thanks to Joe Manchin and lack of Republican support.  There was something like a 7 point shift toward Republicans from voters with kids who got, then lost, the expanded credit.  Whether that's because they were pissed that Democrats let it lapse, or they were pissed about inflation, was unclear.  But from talking with people who got the credit it probably would have offset most of the sting of global inflation in 2022, had the more generous monthly credits continued.

Greenberg's current polls show similar bad news for Biden as every other poll.  If the election were held today, Trump would probably win.  What Greenberg is great at is defining an economic populist message that Biden and Democrats can fight for.  Which, as Greenberg recommends, should start and end with the idea of raising taxes on the rich.  

As I've said in other posts, my bet is mostly that Allan Lichtman is right.  Having an incumbent running, and avoiding a bitter fight between Harris and progressives and  (name a Democratic Governor), probably means that Democrats are better with Biden on top of the ballot.  Despite his weaknesses.  Lichtman argues that the polls are useless.  I mostly agree.  But this polling gives Democrats a good populist message to fight for. 

I got a good reality check on this from two of my Millennial nephews over Thanksgiving.  They both would prefer Biden step aside.  Both are great examples of young voters who disapprove of Biden.  That said, there is no question that while they disapprove of Biden they will never vote for Trump.  One thinks Biden is too liberal, especially on his green energy stuff.  The other thinks Biden is not progressive enough.  Which again underscores that not having Biden could be a recipe for a big, and unhelpful, Democratic food fight.

I summarized Lichtman's Keys theory to both.  Especially the fact that he predicted every race since 1984 accurately, in advance.  And that he thinks not having an incumbent and having an internal food fight would hurt Democrats - just like it did in 2016, as he predicted in Fall 2016.  I loved my progressive nephew's reaction.  "All that makes common sense.  Democrats would be better running an incumbent.  Just not this incumbent!" 

That said, if Biden is the nominee, he'll likely get the votes of many young voters who don't approve of him.  If the alternative is Trump.  Trump himself just helped matters by promising to resurrect his failed "repeal and replace" Obamacare plan.  The ACA is quite popular among Millennials and Gen Z.  It is viewed most favorably by voters aged 18-29, and least favorably (but still net favorable) by voters over 65.

Going after Romney for his distaste for "the 47 %" worked for Obama in 2012.  Despite an economy that was in worse shape than today.  Biden should focus his fire on how Trump's Republicans cut taxes for the Top 10 %.  And how they have opposed the things Democrats have done to help middle class and working class families.

Considering the honesty of George Santos, the intelligence of Lauren Boebert, the empathy of Marjorie T. Green, the moral standards of Matt Gaetz, the integrity of Kari Lake, the spine of Kevin McCarthy, and the personality of Trump, how would your nephews square any decision to vote Blue?   Or are they unaware of these modern GOP traits?

😉

 

 

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

8 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Considering the honesty of George Santos, the intelligence of Lauren Boebert, the empathy of Marjorie T. Green, the moral standards of Matt Gaetz, the integrity of Kari Lake, the spine of Kevin McCarthy, and the personality of Trump, how would your nephews square any decision to vote Blue?   Or are they unaware of these modern GOP traits?

😉

I of course agree.

Speaking of my nephews, the Sandersesque one asked me what I thought of the Republican House shit show.  Before he even gave me a chance to answer, he kind of scripted my answer by suggesting I must be feeling Schadenfreude (Sorry, I don't speak Russian.  Is German okay?)  

I surprised him by saying I was hoping the Republicans would take the House in 2022, for two reasons.

First, like with Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010, I figured it would give Biden a foil to look more sane against when he ran for a second term.  On that I have not been disappointed.  The whacko wing of the GOP hit the ball into the Santosphere.

Second, I figured it would give Biden a path to moderation and compromise. Like Clinton in 1994, for sure.  (Remember, that's the last time we had a budget surplus?).   That "meet in the middle" re-election concept didn't work so well with Obama in 2010.  And we could debate whether it was because of Obama, or Boehner, or what Boehner called "the whackadoodles".  (Spoiler alert:  Team MTG is even more whackadoodle than what Boehner had to deal with.  At least the Senate got immigration reform passed in 2014.  It was the House Freedom Caucus that killed it.)

It's interesting that Biden actually got Republicans to compromise when Democrats ran the House, and the moderate D's and R's (yes, there are a few) could actually meet in the middle on infrastructure, chips, and gun control.  The idea that House Republicans will compromise with Democrats is obviously hopeless.  Since House Republicans can't even compromise with Republicans.

So it all suggests Biden won't have compromises to run on for 2013 and 2014.  Although one can always hope, probably illogically, that immigration reform may pass.  But if Biden doesn't have compromise, he will at least have the House shit show to point his finger at.

So I'll just repeat that the hope is that there is no recession.  And Biden will win as the lesser, albeit older, of evils.

AB Stoddard, who does a good job of speaking in the voice of center/right, just wrote a scary piece arguing that voters are now used to all the horrors of Trump. So nothing he does or says really matters anymore.  If she's right, and people want to hope for a return to a pre-inflation Trump economy, he may well be the 47th POTUS. 

I'm hoping she's wrong.  And when people in the middle really focus on Trump, his crimes, and how he wants to repeal Obamacare again, it will also seem like just one more act in the Republican shit show. 

Mostly, I'm hoping inflation stays down, interest rates follow inflation down, and we have no recession.  It's probably true that people just don't care much about whether Trump is criminal, or Biden is old.  They probably care more about inflation and interest rates.

 

[Marc in Calif]

Drumpf says: 

"We’ve Been Waging an All-Out War on American Democracy"

 

[forky123]

19 minutes ago, Marc in Calif said:

Drumpf says: 

"We’ve Been Waging an All-Out War on American Democracy"

 

First time Trump's ever told the truth.

[JKane]

 

 

[Stable Genius]

[Stable Genius]

BoBo is following the Palin playbook:

teen pregnancies ...CHECK
domestic violence...CHECK
loves Jesus almost as much as her guns...CHECK
divorced...CHECK
spectacularly stupid...CHECK
thinks glasses make her look smart...CHECK
(disguise doesn't work)...CHECK
had more children than she can handle...CHECK

circling the drain...CHECK