This is scary

[Pete1111]

IMO, BN is a greedy thug, just like Trump and Putin.

[Marc in Calif]

18 hours ago, Riobard said:

Not how that term is employed. Rather, for example, ‘you behave in the very manner that you criticize in others.’ Behaviour is not projectable as it is external, not an introject. 

Let's see what we have here....

1. You went back to page 1 of this 15-page thread. 
2. You saw a comment that was not directed to you. 
3. You jumped on a single word in that comment that somehow bothered you.
4. You responded directly to that comment's author -- 15 pages later. 
5. You composed three statements, seemingly based solely on terminology from psychology and psychoanalysis and not on the ways in which that terminology has become part of common usage (or "employment," in your words).
6. And one of those statements is incorrect.

CONCLUSION
Criticizing others' use of words on public forums often backfires, especially when it's practiced for sport. 

[stevenkesslar]

4 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Although voter registration initiatives in Georgia led by Stacey Abrahms deserve recognition for turning Georgia and the Senate blue, IMO the Democrats have left Abrahms in the dust. 

You wandered around two issues in your post.  The impact of Israel's war on the 2024 election.  And broader Democratic Party turnout issues.  So I'll do the same.

Politics is fickle.   I had high hopes for Abrams.  And her voter registration work was, and is, incredible.  It got Warnock elected.  That said, she ran for  Guv twice and lost twice.  The second time by a wider margin than the first.  In that same 2022 election where she did worse than she did in 2018, Warnock won again.  There's lots of factors that went into that.  But, at the end of the day, your point is about being about to win in 2024.  And Abrams was not able to win.

In Michigan, on the other hand, Whitmer is a huge winner.  The rhetoric in Fall 2022 was that she might be a victim of the red wave.  What red wave?  Instead, she clobbered her opponent, took over the legislature, and has followed through with all kinds of legislative wins.  So, again, politics is fickle.  

Biden is clearly in trouble.  And the war in Israel does not help.  Steve Kornacki helpfully contributed that right now his favorability rating is lower than any POTUS entering an election year in polling history.  Even if he surges in his election year, like Obama and Clinton did before him, will it be enough?

I think one thing we can safely bet on is that this will be one of the most negative campaigns ever.  Some recent poll said that a majority of people who plan to vote for both Trump and Biden view it as a vote against the other guy, rather than for their guy.  Biden will have to paint Trump as what one anonymous Biden aide called "full on Hitler." 

That said, it complicates matters when Biden is the one selling bombs to Bibi.  I guess Biden's argument will be that, at the end of the day, Trump loves Bibi better.  Ugh!  Anyone who has a big problem with Bibi should also have a big problem with Trump, given how he favored Bibi as POTUS.

 

Trump, Kushner and Netanyahu are hellbent on destroying the two-state solution

Biden, of course, is doing the exact opposite.  And saying the end goal must be a two state solution.

There's a lot of prognosticating about how a lot of people who are turned off just won't vote.  On the Biden side, that would include lots of young voters who feel like he's on Team Bibi The Baby Bomber.  I don't have a clue.  Biden will try to make it a referendum on the future of democracy and civilization.  I would not be surprised if it is another huge turnout election.  And, if it is, I have no clue whether that would favor Trump or Biden. 

Biden's stance on Israel won't help.  Inflation has been his biggest problem.  But, in theory, Israel or immigration or impeachment could all be seen as final nails in the coffin if he loses.

There are a few things I find somewhat encouraging.

There's been a lot of talk about how Biden is bleeding support among base voters.  Especially young, Black, and Hispanic voters.  This November Quinnipiac poll addresses that dynamic, I think.  When you add RFK Jr. and West, Biden is in fact bleeding support in those three base groups:  41 % of voters under 35 say they'll vote for RFK or West.  35 % of Blacks and 41 % of Hispanics say the same.  That's huge.  And of course bad news for Biden.  That said, in the same poll Trump has the support of 9 % of Blacks, 26 % of Hispanics, and 27 % of voters under 35.  In all three cases, that is WORSE than he did with each group in 2020, based on exit polls. 

So the issue is NOT that Trump is winning over young voters, or Blacks, or Hispanics.  It's that Biden is losing them to "anybody but Trump or Biden."  But when it actually comes down to either Trump or Biden, and both sides argue their opponent will destroy America, who knows where young voters, Blacks, and Hispanics will go?  Or whether they vote at all?  That's probably what will determine who wins.  If I had to bet, if they voted for Biden in 2020 they are mostly likely to hold their nose in 2024 and vote for him again, though.  Which is mildly encouraging.

4 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Or are the Dems "all talk" while they send out donation requests then sit back and assume everyone will just do the right thing and vote Blue?

That's another reason for mild encouragement.  As this article notes, Biden has been very consistent in rebuilding the DNC "one team, one fight" party machinery that Obama basically left bankrupt.  Will that help?  Probably.   We know when Obama was on the ballot in 2008 and 2012, his star power and Obama-focused grassroots organizing worked well.  In 2010 and 2014 turnout sucked, and it was a disaster.  One reason some people think Democrats beat the red trickle in 2022 is because they did a good job on party machinery and turnout in swing states and districts.

That said, I don't think anyone knows yet what kind of wave will form in 2024.  Israel, and how people feel about the bombing of innocent Palestinians, will not help.  West has already said he'll use this in Michigan to win votes of Palestinians.  Any wave that forms to help Biden will have to lift him from crappy 40 % favorable ratings.  That's much worse than Obama and Clinton were in January of their re-election year.  And such a wave will be based way more on fear of Trump than on warm fuzzies for Old Joe.   

To paraphrase the OP, out of context:  THIS IS SCARY!