Experts foresee currency’s decline amid global market turbulence

[reader]

From The Thaiger

Financial experts are predicting a further depreciation of the baht throughout this month and next, due to the increased volatility in the global money and capital markets. This follows the US Federal Reserve’s recent suggestion of a potential increase in its benchmark interest rate.

Poon Panitchpibun, a strategist at Krungthai Global Market, a research centre of Krungthai Bank, noted that the baht opened yesterday, September 21, at 36.25 against the US dollar, a depreciation from the previous day’s close of 36.07.

The baht had shown a gradual strengthening, fluctuating between 35.86 to 36.23 per dollar on Wednesday night, before it slipped as the dollar and US 10-year bond yields rose, following the Federal Reserve’s hint at an additional interest rate hike this year and fewer cuts next year.

The research unit at Krungthai Bank believes the baht depreciation may be more than expected and stay weaker for longer, due to the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining high interest rates over a prolonged period. The baht could also face pressure from foreign investors selling Thai assets as financial markets continue to exhibit a “risk-off” state, with a short-term rebound unlikely.

Previously, the depreciation of the baht almost reached resistance levels, suggesting a possible weakening to a range of 36.50 to 37 against the dollar – a level considered undervalued by analysts. However, the baht could fluctuate sideways or even strengthen if influencing factors change, according to Krungthai Global Markets, which predicts the baht may appreciate to 35.80 to 36 against the dollar.

Due to escalating uncertainties both internally and externally, Krungsri has adjusted its baht forecast for the end of this year to 35 baht to the dollar, a weakening from the earlier prediction of 34 baht.

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Today's cross rates

USD 35.99

EUR 38.29

GBP 44.08

 

 

[fedssocr]

So it could go up, or down, or stay the same. Got it.

[vinapu]

10 hours ago, fedssocr said:

So it could go up, or down, or stay the same. Got it.

after all currency experts had spoken

[Keithambrose]

Sounds like an economist!