Pheu Thai popularity plunges in new poll

[reader]

From Thai PBS World

The Pheu Thai party’s popularity would drop by 62.24%,while the popularity of the Move Forward party would increase by 62.39% if there were to be a new election today, according to the findings of a Blockchain poll, jointly conducted by Sripatum University and D-vote.

The two pollsters gauged the opinions of 1,253 people aged18 and over with various occupations and educational levels between August 21st and 24th on the question: “Which parties will you choose when there is another election?”

The poll shows 49.05% of the respondents said they will vote for the Move Forward party, 14.69% for Bhumjaithai, 10.65%for Pheu Thai, 7.52% for Palang Pracharath, 7.14% for United Thai Nation and 4.50% for the Democrat party.

The poll shows the popularity of the Move Forward party has increased by 62.39% and Bhumjaithai’s by 3.50%. Pheu Thai popularity, however, fell by 62.24%, the Democrats by 9.96%, Palang Pracharath by 6.02% and United Thai Nation dropped by 0.84%.

51.32% of those who voted for Pheu Thai in the May 14th general election said they will vote for Move Forward if there were another election and 10.92% of Pheu Thai voters said they will vote for the other parties.

When asked whether Pheu Thai party’s break from Move Forward was planned from the beginning,  the poll shows 58.79% of the respondents believe it was plotted from the start between Pheu Thai and the parties in Prayut administration, 25.20% believe it was changed after formation of a government led by Move Forward had failed.

36.52% of respondents believe Pheu Thai’s change of loyalty stems from the party’s concern that its popularity will be negatively affected if Move Forward is in the coalition government, 28.52% said formation of a government will never succeed if Move Forward is included in the coalition.

Pheu Thai’s three most favoured policies the 600 baht minimum wage (40.41%), 25,000-baht minimum salary for BA graduates (39.95%) and the 10,000 baht “digital wallet” subsidy (37.47%).

Asked about whether Thailand should have a new constitution, crafted by a council elected by the people, 75.53% said they agree, 12.14% said the charter should be amended and 3.85% said the charter should remain as is.

[vinapu]

It seems Thai people did not forget who they voted for and why

all this supports what we said before, time is on Move Forward side. In case of any troubles in unwieldy 11 party coalition who will be first to be asked to rescue - biggest party in opposition and  the house as it is now.

[Ruthrieston]

For now the army/junta stays in control, definitely not what the people of Thailand want. Time will tell, but I hope the Move Forward Party stays strong and focused towards the next election, if the army allows one.

[PeterRS]

20 minutes ago, Ruthrieston said:

For now the army/junta stays in control, definitely not what the people of Thailand want. Time will tell, but I hope the Move Forward Party stays strong and focused towards the next election, if the army allows one.

Let's not hold our breath. We have no idea if the Move Forward Party will be allowed to continue. In the 2019 General Election, another new Party Future Forward gained 81 seats, a remarkable number for a new Party. Due to political shenanigans, the Party leader was accused of violating election laws - the same tactic used to get rid of Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward. Naturally he was then disqualified by the elite-led Constitutional Court. This same Court ordered the Future Forward Party dissolved in February 2020. The following year 55 of the Future Forward MPs decamped to Move Forward. Will history repeat itself?

[vinapu]

3 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

Let's not hold our breath. We have no idea if the Move Forward Party will be allowed to continue. In the 2019 General Election, another new Party Future Forward gained 81 seats, a remarkable number for a new Party. Due to political shenanigans, the Party leader was accused of violating election laws - the same tactic used to get rid of Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward. Naturally he was then disqualified by the elite-led Constitutional Court. This same Court ordered the Future Forward Party dissolved in February 2020. The following year 55 of the Future Forward MPs decamped to Move Forward. Will history repeat itself?

that's why you won't find Thailand on any list of functioning  democracies. 

[vinapu]

last "The Economist " which I received just today had 2 articles about  Thai politics and one is titled "Thaksin Shinawatra shows his true colours" with subtitle : A grubby political compromise with the army has enraged Thai voters"

[Londoner]

The Pheu Thai leadership has betrayed the hundred of its supporters slaughtered in Bangkok not long ago. Its craving for power ensures the continuance of the Junta, one way or another.

[vinapu]

6 hours ago, Londoner said:

 Its craving for power ensures the continuance of the Junta, one way or another.

not necessarily, They can change things only if they are in power so it may be just tactics, nasty but just tactics.

[PeterRS]

The personality factor in Thai politics preceded that of Trump and Johnson and their cronies. Thaksin was seen as a saviour when first elected PM in 2001. Before then, few Thais seemed to pay much attention to politics as the same old members of the corrupt elite formed governments. I suppose the only ones not to be a part of that swamp were General Prem, although I do not know if he was as revered during his 8 years as PM as he was later in life as Chairman of the Privy Council. The other was Anand Panyarachun whom the King, having surprisingly intervened in politics folllowing massive protests against the government and a bloody army massacre, asked to form his second government in May 1992. This was met with popular approval around the country. Anand was seen as one of the few to be sincere and incorruptable.

No doubt the privations suffered by so many in the country following the Asian Economic Crisis helped steer popular feeling towards a relatively new party leader who promised much. And to be fair, Thaksin did deliver policies that helped tens of millions around the country. Yet, despite the PR spin masters, he was essentially massively corrupt and deeply involved in cronyism. Even so, I can recall talking with taxi drivers in the mid-2010s who still seemed to revere Thaksin and said everything would be better once he returned to run the country.

But these were members of the older generations. It is the young who seem now to be driving politics. Certainly Pita Limjaroenrat has a ton of charisma and seems not to be tainted with corruption and scandal, although his former wife did take him to court alleging he was controlling and abusive during their marriage. That case was dismissed as false by the family court. The LGBT movement will be staunchly pro his party as he has promised to introduce same-sex marriage. Will his popularity continue even though he has been denied political power? We ought to get some indication after the Rayong Constituency by-election on September 10.

[reader]

From Thai PBS World

Pheu Thai party leader quits

Cholnan Srikaew quit as leader of the Pheu Thai party today (Wednesday), with immediate effect, to keep his pre-election promise to resign if Pheu Thai were to partner with Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation or both in the formation of the government.

Chousak Sirinil, one of the deputy leaders, is now acting party leader, until a general meeting is held in the next 60 days to choose a new leader and executive committee.

Speaking at a press conference today, Cholnan said that, since the party has achieved its goal of forming a coalition government of 11 parties, it was the right time for him to quit, as he had pledged to do during a debate on April 28th.

He said that he has no regrets, nor does he harbour any grudges for having to quit, claiming that he had done his job to the best of his ability since he was appointed the party leader on October 18th, 2011.

Cholnan said that his resignation had nothing to do with his cabinet post or his status as a party-list MP. He was tipped to become public health minister, to succeed Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai party.

[vinapu]

24 minutes ago, reader said:

 

Cholnan Srikaew quit as leader of the Pheu Thai party today (Wednesday), with immediate effect, to keep his pre-election promise

that's commendable as it doesn't happens too often in politics, keep pre- election promise , that's something

[Keithambrose]

9 hours ago, vinapu said:

that's commendable as it doesn't happens too often in politics, keep pre- election promise , that's something

Unheard of, indeed. 

[Keithambrose]

I think our last resignation, on a point of principle was Lord Carrington, foreign secretary, taking responsibility for the Falklands debacle. 1981 or so. Of course Churchill resigned after the Dardanelles disaster, 1915, and went to fight in the trenches. Can't see any Thai generals following suit!

[fedssocr]

It does seem notable that the PM is doing these appearances to try and win people over. No VIP treatment boarding the plane in Phuket. Visiting the market to talk to the merchants and find out what their issues are. Riding the MRT with commuters. They know that they look terrible right now.

I guess it seems inevitable that they will find some way to try and get rid of MFP. The people running the show are short-term thinkers. MFP need to be recruiting and identifying the next crop of leaders.

The push for a citizen-led charter rewrite is worth watching. Clearly that's the last thing the generals and powers that be want to happen.

[PeterRS]

Since democracy was introduced in 1932 the country has had 20 different charters - most changed after the latest military coup. As good a reason as any for getting the military out of politics IMHO.