Does crashing birthrate spell doom for Thailand?

[reader]

From Thai PBS World

he median age in Thailand currently stands at 40 years and two months, far older than the world average of 30 years and five months. This startling fact suggests that if Thailand fails to take action now, it could rapidly be overwhelmed by problems related to its aging society.

Thailand’s population is on course to shrink by at least 50% by 2100, according to the Social Development and Human Security Ministry.

“I believe Thai governments both past and present have been aware of this fact. But I don’t know if the [incoming] government will introduce clear-cut or radical policies to address this situation,” said Professor Teera Sindecharak, who lectures at Thammasat University’s Sociology and Anthropology Faculty.

Teera warns that the ongoing demographic trend could mean that infrastructure designed to serve huge numbers of people will soon be left half-empty. And businesses may find it difficult to attract enough customers or staff to continue operating.

“Every sector will be affected, from nurseries to schools to universities to big corporations,” he said. “Big investments in mega infrastructure projects may be wasted because they end up serving a much smaller number of users.”

The trend will also see extended families becoming replaced by smaller nuclear family units, he added. Generation gaps will become bigger because people nowadays tend to marry at an older age compared with previous generations. More people will also live alone, while maintaining ties with friends and distant relatives. More couples who get married may decide not to have children because they cherish their freedom and independence.

“Technology will likely play an even bigger role in people’s lives,” Teera continued. “Some people will likely turn to the virtual world for social interaction as there will be fewer people around them, fewer relatives or in-laws.”

Continues at

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/does-crashing-birthrate-and-aging-society-spell-doom-for-thailand/

[vinapu]

6 hours ago, reader said:

 

Thailand’s population is on course to shrink by at least 50% by 2100, according to the Social Development and Human Security Ministry.

.......

6 hours ago, reader said:

“ “Big investments in mega infrastructure projects may be wasted because they end up serving a much smaller number of users.”

 

in 2100 megaprojects started in 2050 , 27 years from now,  will be already aging.

even if such drop will happen it won't be (hopefully) overnight but very gradually,  leaving plenty of time for population and states to adapt. I'd not panic, not even because I don't expect to see those 2050 megaprojects

 

[fedssocr]

obviously this is an issue in dozens of countries, so it's not unique to Thailand. Maybe they'll need to figure out ways to integrate more immigrants

[gayinpattaya]

Turn your heads to Japan. They are past the point of no return.

[scott456]

9 hours ago, reader said:

From Thai PBS World

Thailand’s population is on course to shrink by at least 50% by 2100, according to the Social Development and Human Security Ministry.

I don't think any of us needs to worry about the lack of boys to hire in 2100.

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, scott456 said:

I don't think any of us needs to worry about the lack of boys to hire in 2100.

+1

[reader]

Fortunately the massage industry--the most democratic of employers--has jobs opportunities for all, regardless of education.

From The Nation

Thailand running out of jobs for university grads

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has warned that new university graduates may find it tough to get jobs as demand is on the decline.

This warning came in a recent report released by the agency, which said that new university graduates may be hired at lower salaries or jobs may be given to those with lower qualifications.

It said that though the employment situation has improved after the pandemic, the Thai labour market is suffering a mismatch in terms of qualifications.

The report cited figures from the Board of Investment (BOI), which showed that demand for university graduates had dropped in 2022 compared to 2018.

According to BOI, businesses hired 95,566 employees in 2018, while the number of people employed rose to 168,992 in 2022. However, despite the increase in people employed, the ratio of jobs given to university graduates dropped from 30.1% of overall employment to just 17.2% last year.

At the same time, the ratio of jobs for those finishing vocational schools dropped slightly from 23.7% in 2018 to 22.5% in 2022, while the ratio of employment for secondary school graduates rose from 41.1% in 2018 to 57.3% in 2022.

The report said companies that have received BOI privileges to operate in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) also hired more people with lower education levels.

Continues at

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40030548

[PeterRS]

19 hours ago, gayinpattaya said:

Turn your heads to Japan. They are past the point of no return.

Not only Japan whose population has been shrinking quite fast for well over a decade. Young Japanese are putting off marrying until much later than before and many couples are either delaying having kids or deciding not to have any. The country's allied problem is that it still does not want to open up its labour market to foreign workers. 

It is estimated that for population numbers to remain constant, a country's birthrate should be a minimum of 2.1 children per woman of child bearing age. Japan is now at 1.26. 

Singapore's population has also been shrinking quite dramatically for at least 2 decades. Last year the fertility rate dropped to an historic low of 1.04. The country's economy now depends on well over 1 million overseas workers. South Korea's population started shrinking much later in 2020. But its drop has been much more dramatic and last year stood at a world record low of 0.78. If nothing is done to change the attitude of young South Koreans, it is estimated the country could "lose" close to two-thirds of its population within just one generation.

As worrying for Beijing, its four-decade policy of one child per family certainly had the desired effect of reducing its alarming population rise. But it has now joined the list of countries  with worrying declines in birthrates. Equally, due to the preference of parents for boys rather than girls, it has a major population imbalance. It is estimated that some 30+ million young men will be unable to find wives. The one child poicy has now been replaced with a recommendation that couples aim to have three children! And like Japan, both China and South Korea are reluctant to open their countries up to a larger number of foreign workers. Unless they do so, the ability of the countries to look after their ageing populations will become increasingly problematic.

There are many reasons for population decline, including improved personal incomes. Singapore and Japan have tried to encourage more young men and women to marry with the opening of special centres for meeting members of the opposite sex. Tax and other financial benefits are also available. But so far these do not appear to have more than token success. The major hurdle all countries have to overcome is that recent surveys have shown that more than half of young Japanese and South Korean women in in their 20s do not wish to have children. A survey in China found the percentage to be closer fo 66.6%. Asia is shrinking!

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singapore-s-birth-rates-hit-record-low-in-2022-along-with-most-yearly-deaths-since-1960#:~:text=Official figures released by the,2021 to 35%2C605 in 2022.

https://www.foreignbrief.com/analysis/population-east-asia-decline/#:~:text=EAST ASIA IS SHRINKING&text=China is only the most,children per woman is required.

[reader]

24 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

The major hurdle all countries have to overcome is that recent surveys have shown that more than half of young Japanese and South Korean women in in their 20s do not wish to have children

Let's hope that changes. If our mothers felt that way, this forum wouldn't exist.

[spoon]

Most of us gays also do not want children hehe

[10tazione]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

30+ million young men will be unable to find wives

Gay sex must be blooming!

[PeterRS]

9 hours ago, 10tazione said:

Gay sex must be blooming!

If China just opened up more to the LGBT community they would make millions already in sham marriages and many more millions of single men and women much happier.