Thailand’s Obama Moment

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From Foreign Policy

Even to those closely following Thai politics, Pita Limjaroenrat has never come off as an obvious threat to that country’s military-backed government. In fact, he doesn’t really sound like a politician from Southeast Asia at all.

When the Thai parliamentarian first spoke to Foreign Policy at the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore last summer, it was just weeks after Thai opposition parties—including Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward Party—had surprised analysts by winning big in Bangkok local elections. Off the back of those victories, Limjaroenrat had just wrapped up a meeting with one of the top officials in the U.S. State Department.

Reflecting on recent gains by Move Forward—a party that is pro-marijuana, pro-same-sex marriage, and pro-reform, which are three rarities in Thai politics—Limjaroenrat, who has served in Thailand’s parliament since 2019, sounded a lot like former U.S. President Barack Obama.

“In short, hope returns,” he said, echoing Obama’s catchphrase. “Hope returns to Thai politics. The politics of possibility is back once again. People are starting to believe in democracy once again.”

Talking like the United States’ 44th president is no accident. Limjaroenrat admits he has borrowed from Obama’s playbook, employing a grassroots-fueled strategy across elections that he learned while shadowing campaign volunteers as a student at Harvard nearly two decades ago. In May’s national elections, this tactic helped Limjaroenrat’s progressive party win the most parliament seats of the 18 parties in the running. Limjaroenrat immediately declared himself Thailand’s new prime minister—a stunning result that sent shockwaves through the region and also raised questions. Most important, whether the Thai military would really allow a reformer to take power? 
 

Viewed in a certain light, Limjaroenrat is a typically pragmatic, suit-wearing politician. When students staged mass sit-ins in 2020 demanding major reform, for instance, he courted them without fully backing them. Nor did he share their wish to ditch the monarchy. (While Thailand’s politics for the past several decades have been characterized by a series of military governments, the generals still have to kiss the ring: The monarchy has proven the kingmaker in restoring civilian rule on multiple occasions.)

 

“He clearly wants to be seen as a unifying figure, a moderate,” Aaron Connelly, who leads research on Southeast Asian political change and foreign policy at the Institute of International Strategic Studies (IISS), said of Limjaroenrat, whose toughest hurdle is yet to come.

Limjaroenrat has formed an ad hoc coalition to govern Thailand, but it is still short of a majority in parliament. He can only ascend to the office of prime minister if he garners enough support in the House of Representatives—and the military-appointed Senate—in a vote scheduled for August. Then there’s also the into whether he was allowed to run for office while holding shares in media companies. Even if in the end he can’t break through, though, Limjaroenrat has mobilized a younger generation that is hungry for change.

Continues at

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/01/thailands-obama-moment/