Pita ‘ready to be Thailand’s 30th prime minister’

[reader]

From The Nation

 

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat has announced he is ready to be the country’s next prime minister as his party scored a shock victory in the May 14 general election.

“Dear fellow citizens, today I, Pita Limjaroenrat, am 'clear' and ‘ready' to be the 30th Prime Minister of Thailand,” the Harvard-educated Pita, 42, announced on Twitter at 2am on Monday.

“We share the same dreams and hopes, and we believe that the Thailand we love can be better. Change is possible if we start doing it from today... Our dreams and hopes are ‘simple and straightforward’.

“And whether you agree or disagree with me, I will be your prime minister. Whether you voted for me or not, I will serve you.”

The unofficial vote count as of 10am on Monday (99% completed) showed that Move Forward had won 112 out of 400 constituency MP seats and 14.1 million votes for party-list MPs, narrowly beating Pheu Thai which also had 112 constituency seats but only 10.8 million party-list votes.

Bhumjaithai Party was in third place with 68 constituency MPs and Palang Pracharath was fourth with 39 constituency MPs.

Third place in party-list contest was PM Prayut’s United Thai Nation Party with 4.67 million votes, followed by the Bhumjaithai Party with 1.12 million votes.

Pita said Move Forward will hold an official press conference at noon today, adding that he would head to Democracy Monument in Bangkok to thank voters for their support at 5.30pm.

 

[Vessey]

I wish him every success, but does he really believe that the Generals will simply roll-over and allow him to take charge?

[forrestreid]

Depends on how he does things. He may be willing to come to an implicit agreement with the military that he will be allowed to take office as long as he does not interfere with the things the Generals hold dear, from the Army budget on down.

It could be, from their point of view,  that he would be seen as more palatable than a member of the Shinawatra clan, who one would have expected to end up as the leader of the  largest party, and perhaps prime minister, until the results came in.
 

[fedssocr]

I think that may be true. But several senators have apparently already said that they will not support him for PM. Could be posturing. But his stated plans to reform the constitution and 112 are going to run into some fierce opposition from some factions.

[gayinpattaya]

7 hours ago, fedssocr said:

I think that may be true. But several senators have apparently already said that they will not support him for PM. Could be posturing. But his stated plans to reform the constitution and 112 are going to run into some fierce opposition from some factions.

Speaking to some of my Thai friends, they are hell bent on change. It's going to be an interesting time here in Thailand. I hope they get what they want. 

[TotallyOz]

1 hour ago, gayinpattaya said:

Speaking to some of my Thai friends, they are hell bent on change. It's going to be an interesting time here in Thailand. I hope they get what they want. 

Speaking to older Thais that have been part of the pro military party for years and voted for Pita, they said they were upset that the general stayed in power past the 2 years after the coup and got into politics. They just wanted change and to see the country take a different direction. When asked about specific issues, the main one was the required military service they were interested in seeing being changed.

[PeterRS]

The new Prime Minister-elect's threat to amend the Constitution, reduce the army's influence in politics and particularly to revise the lese majeste laws are anathema to the existing ruling elites. They are bound to mount a variety of major attempts to ensure the status quo is upheld. But if the Upper House that consists of totally army-appointed Senators and the ultra conservative Courts try to deny him power, I am totally certain the country's youth will be back on the streets in far greater numbers than three years ago. And this time far more of their parents' generation and business leaders will join them.

For the first time in 4 decades of visiting and living in Thailand, I can feel a generational change in the air! Unlike the Shinawatra clan with its strong ties to the police and its extensive corruption, Khun Pita is not himself a product of the elite system, despite his family's wealth. He is extremely well educated, has extensive business experience, is a single parent and clearly exhibits a ton of charisma. Hopefully he does indeed become the country's next PM.

[vinapu]

50 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

The new Prime Minister-elect's threat to amend the Constitution, reduce the army's influence in politics and particularly to revise the lese majeste laws are anathema to the existing ruling elites. They are bound to mount a variety of major attempts to ensure the status quo is upheld.

they will but wheels of change are in motion already, even if conservatives  succeed it will be temporary and short lived. Laws don't need to be revised, it's enough if for starters they stop applying them . Time for revision comes next.

[PeterRS]

53 minutes ago, vinapu said:

Laws don't need to be revised, it's enough if for starters they stop applying them . Time for revision comes next.

Not sure I agree with this. As the eminent French statesman Jean Baptiste Colbert stated in the 17th century, “If you enact a law and do not enforce it, you are condoning what you condemn.” 

[vinapu]

7 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Not sure I agree with this. As the eminent French statesman Jean Baptiste Colbert stated in the 17th century, “If you enact a law and do not enforce it, you are condoning what you condemn.” 

so you are saying countries which still have  colonial era anti -sodomy laws in books should start enforcing them vigorously as famous mercantilist advised above?

Not that I disagree with you both but in real politics sometimes change needs to be introduced a little step at the time , just to avoid waves ruining everything 

[reader]

From Thai PBS World

Two more parties join Move Forward-led coalition

Two more parties have agreed to join the coalition, led by the Move Forward party, bringing the number of partners to ten, with a combined 316 votes in the House of Representatives.

Phicharn Chaowapatanawong, deputy leader of the Move Forward party, said today (Friday) that the Chart Pattana Kla party has agreed to join the coalition. The party won one constituency MP seat and one party-list seat.

Earlier today, the Mai (New) party, which has one party-list MP, also agreed to join the coalition.

Phicharn said that they will send the draft memorandum of understanding (MoU), to be signed by all coalition partners, to the two newcomers for review and to propose amendments, if they have any.

A formal press conference and the signing of the MOU among the ten coalition partners is scheduled for Monday, May 22nd, which is the ninth anniversary of the coup that toppled the government of then Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

The other eight parties are Move Forward, Pheu Thai, Prachachart, Thai Sang Thai, Thai Liberal, Fair, Palang Sangkhom Mai and Pheu Thai Ruam Palang.

[Patanawet]

On 5/16/2023 at 3:53 AM, Vessey said:

I wish him every success, but does he really believe that the Generals will simply roll-over and allow him to take charge?

The Generals/senators will do what they are instructed do do from above!

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, Patanawet said:

The Generals/senators will do what they are instructed do do from above!

and this is what I think as well and somehow  suspect outcome will be aligned with elections result. From above view is often better to assess where winds are blowing from.

[fedssocr]

They have to know that if they don't follow the popular will there is just going to be more people out in the streets again which will just be bad for everyone. The masses are not going to sit quietly and just go along. The genie is out of the bottle. I'm sure there is a lot of consternation about what to do in certain circles, but they don't really have many options.

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, fedssocr said:

They have to know that if they don't follow the popular will there is just going to be more people out in the streets again which will just be bad for everyone. The masses are not going to sit quietly and just go along. The genie is out of the bottle. I'm sure there is a lot of consternation about what to do in certain circles, but they don't really have many options.

I think they need to find a way of backing up without leaving a feel that they were forced to by election winners so both sides need to avoid cornering other.

[fedssocr]

I see some reporting today that the MOU signed by all of the parties in the coalition agrees not to reform 112 or change the status of the current monarchy. That's probably not going to go over well with everyone who voted for MFP but apparently this was a red line for PT.

[reader]

From CNBC

Bans, betrayals and stalemates: How Thailand’s old guard could respond to election results

Thailand’s preliminary election results was a triumph for the progressive Move Forward party but its reforms are set to threaten conservative forces that may move to prevent the pro-democracy party from governing.

Move Forward’s leader and chosen prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat has announced a six-party coalition that includes Pheu Thai, a populist, pro-democracy party that came second in the election.

This gives the coalition 310 seats in parliament’s 500-seat lower house. Whoever the coalition appoints as prime minister must win 376 parliamentary votes — a combined number from the 250-seat, military-appointed Senate and the lower house. The vote for PM is expected in August after the Election Commission certifies election results.

 

Analysts say Move Forward faces a daunting task to shore up the remaining 66 vote due to its controversial proposed policies — a new constitution, ending military dominance in politics, abolishing mandatory military conscription, abolishing business monopolies and revising the lese-majeste law that punishes insults to the king with jail time.
 

The Move Forward party recently said potential coalition partners don’t need to support its stance on lese-majeste as it plans to table it in parliament independently — its refusal to compromise could also isolate prospective allies and most of the junta-led Senate.

Ahead of the prime ministerial vote, political watchers anticipate a variety of outcomes, including the possibility of forced intervention by the country’s powerful military-monarchy alliance.

“Move Forward’s agenda is an affront and a frontal challenge to the established centers of power,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies.

“It is likely a matter of when and how — not whether — they will strike back.”
 

 

Given Move Forward’s dogmatic stance, experts expect some kind of power play that would tailor outcomes to establishment preferences.

Arch-royalists could go as far as to ban Move Forward, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned in a report. 

It’s a plausible scenario since royalist-conservative elites have sway over official bodies like the Constitutional Court, National Anti-Corruption Commission and Electoral Commission. Opposition party Future Forward, for instance, was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020 for violating election laws in the 2019 election — a charge that Human Rights Watch called“politically motivated.”

“The courts could find ways to nullify enough Move Forward and Pheu Thai victories to alter the balance of power,” echoed analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in a separate report.

There’s also a chance Pita himself could be targeted.

He was recently charged with a constitutional violation for being a small shareholder of a now-defunct media company while serving as an member of parliament, which he denies. This could be potential grounds for his disqualification and enable the less-radical Pheu Thai to lead the coalition, according to Pongsudhirak.

There is a precedent for Pita’s case to be cleared, noted Napisa Waitoolkiat, a political scientist at Naresuan University.
 

In 2001, the Constitutional Court acquitted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra of concealing assets even after he was indicted for corruption charges, she said. “If the elites choose to respect the votes of Thai people, they can certainly do the same this time as they did towards Thaksin in 2001.”

There are other ways for the Senate to block Move Forward. Senators could abstain from voting and refuse to confirm Pita, leading to a stalemate, according to CSIS. T

he Senate could also countermand lower house MPs’ choice of prime minister, unless the hard-to-reach super majority of 376 votes is secured, Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, said in a report. She pointed to statements from senators who hinted they won’t automatically endorse the winning party’s nominee.

“Conservative forces have all the necessary tools at their disposal to prevent Move Forward from taking government,” Patton concluded.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/23/how-thailands-military-old-guard-could-respond-to-election-results.html