Biden/Harris 2024????

[Lucky]

Right now I cannot support a Biden/Harris ticket in 2024. Sure, Trump is not a good candidate either. So I wonder how our country has ended up with two old men running for President. Biden is too old and will be even older if elected. Harris did not make a good administrator in her San Francisco and Sacramento posts. She babbles and is already a failed contestant for President.

Electing Biden is ultimately electing her President The Democrats have to know this, so why have we no real alternative? It's shameful.

[Suckrates]

15 hours ago, Lucky said:

Right now I cannot support a Biden/Harris ticket in 2024. Sure, Trump is not a good candidate either. So I wonder how our country has ended up with two old men running for President. Biden is too old and will be even older if elected. Harris did not make a good administrator in her San Francisco and Sacramento posts. She babbles and is already a failed contestant for President.

Electing Biden is ultimately electing her President The Democrats have to know this, so why have we no real alternative? It's shameful.

Although in the back of my brain, I tend to agree with you on this, but for me, I dont look at it as electing "people" anymore,  as all choices presented are pretty weak.

I look at these new elections as electing Democracy over Autocracy, and that choice for me is clear,  regardless of how the cards play out. 

Consciously voting for Trump, OR not voting at all is basically giving your vote to Trump, and that will NEVER happen for me.   I still believe Kamala would make a better President than Trump,  Watching his E Jean Carroll deposition gave me a NEW level of disgust for him.    

[Lucky]

LA Times columnist Johan Goldberg sums up his column:

In short, we are on track to have a presidential contest between a whiny, disgraced, septuagenarian, characterologically unfit former president and an octogenarian incumbent who a majority of Americans believe is not mentally sharp enough for the job. Each has an incentive to run against the other because their best shot at winning is having the other as an opponent.

As someone who thinks it would be truly dangerous to put Trump back in power, I think it’s truly irresponsible to run Biden against him. There’s still time to avert a no-win scenario, but that would require party leaders to lead.

If these two old men end up being the nominees, the party hacks will insist it’s a “binary choice,” as if that excuses their role in putting us in such a calamitous predicament in the first place. It’s not supposed to be like this.

Full column: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-05-09/political-parties-democrats-republicans-president-nominations-voting-biden-trump

[Suckrates]

Lets look at candidate motivation.  I truly believe Biden wants to serve to HELP our country and its citizens in need.  On the other hand, Trumps motivation is political cover against criminal prosecution.      Is there really a conscious choice here between these 2 candidates ?     One wants to serve, the other wants to stay out of jail....

If you take age out of the equation for most SANE folk, the choice would be a no-brainer. 

Would I like to see a new age of candidates ?    YES,  but it is what it is and we should make the choice that makes most sense for our ideology and the well being of our country and Democracy. 

[stevenkesslar]

8 hours ago, Lucky said:

As someone who thinks it would be truly dangerous to put Trump back in power, I think it’s truly irresponsible to run Biden against him. There’s still time to avert a no-win scenario, but that would require party leaders to lead.

And the alternative is?

That is both a question, and the answer to your question, @Lucky.

It is a serious question.  Since I am over my bandwidth quota, I waited a day to see if someone else would comment.  But I'm genuinely curious whether other posters have ideas about how we could have, or still could, get to some ticket other than Biden/Harris 2024.  I have my own answer to THAT question.  It involves going back to the choices made in 2020.  But at this point, in May 2023, I don't see any realistic alternative.  Other than for Biden to have said he's not running.  But he is.

But let's play out what the alternative is.  Before Biden announced, there was a year of polls showing that, if everybody ran, it would be a repeat of 2020.  Biden would win a plurality of the vote.  In every poll that shows him running against Veep Kamala or Secretary Pete or Bernie or Warren or even Michelle Obama, Biden wins.

What happens if Biden drops out?  Most polls say Harris wins.  Which is what many (White) Democratic voters don't want.

Then again, other polls says if Biden didn't run the next most popular choice is Bernie.  Which is what many (moderate) Democratic voters don't want. 

I'll always think Super Tuesday 2020 was one of the strangest days in US politics.  You just don't win primaries in states where you have no money, no staff, no organization, and the Senator from that state (Klo or Warren) is on the ballot.  Yet Biden won Massachusetts and Minnesota.  Jim Carville, who thought nominating Bernie would elect Trump, had yet another pithy way of saying it.  He said the Democratic Party needed an intervention.  And on Super Tuesday 2020, Democratic voters provided the intervention.  But the key point is that it was voters, in a Democratic primary.  There was a spontaneous tidal wave that buried Bernie and nominated Biden.

I bold-faced your point about party leaders.  It at least implies the idea of a smoke-filled room.  Or a contested convention where Barack and Michelle or Bill and Hillary or somebody decides what makes sense.  But, again, Carville was right about one thing.  If the Democratic Party needs another intervention, that's what primaries are for.  In a race against Robert Kennedy, Jr., Biden wins the primary 3 to 1.  The people have spoken.

I'll add this, which is speculation.  If there is any party leader that was the architect of 2020, it was Jim Clyburn.  He brought Biden back from the dead.  He pushed Biden to pick Harris as his Veep.  Clyburn never has, and never would, said this.  But my reading of the tea leaves is that he felt that after 2016 running a woman or a Black would be a bridge too far for many voters.  I think he saw Biden/Harris as the best bet to take out Trump.  It worked.  So if Clyburn is the party leader you want, Clyburn is very clear that he wants to finish the job with Joe and Kamala.

So, again, what's the alternative, really?  I think the fact that there is no alternative answers your question.

It's not necessarily relevant, but Republicans are doing the same thing.  Trump was just convicted of crimes.  And at least so far, Ronny D seems to be as pure as Snow White.  (Don't tell Ron.  He doesn't like Disney.)  And yet Republicans are going with the old loser.

The one thing you can say about Biden is that he NEVER ran for POTUS, or Veep, as the party's nominee, and then lost.  I think that's part of the equation, too.  It's still not clear to me why Biden was the only guy who could beat Trump in 2020.  But that's a big part of why he was nominated.  And now people are talking like he's the only guy Trump can beat.  It's a perfectly fine fear to have.  But what's the alternative?

I was for Warren in 2020.  I voted for Bernie, in California, knowing by that point that Warren was toast and Biden would win the nomintaion.  My vote was a memo to Joe saying, "Go left, old man.  Go left."  He did.  I think he's a master political whore who has done a good job of moderating the differences in the party.  Did I mention he sucked Joe Manchin's cock at least well enough to get old Joe (M, not B) to vote for Really Important Stuff that Biden and Democrats could run on in 2022?  Which helped them avoid a bloodbath?

I won't post the polls.  But a big chunk of older Democrats view Biden favorably.  There are almost NO young Democrats - it is literally a single percentage - that strongly approve of Joe Biden.  They think he's too old.  Many if not most of them would rather have Bernie or Kamala. 

So that's a problem.  Will they even vote?  But they did vote in 2022.  And the shit Biden did get done, like climate change, or tried to do, like voting rights and student debt relief, helped.  

I worry about younger Democrats a lot more than older Democrats.  They have to turn out in 2024 and vote for Biden if we don't want to Make America Great Again, Yet Again.  Will they? 

But the polls clearly say that for most of them the alternative is Kamala or Bernie.  Is that what you want?

 

[Lucky]

The Democrats have left us with few choices. They should have been encouraging candidates to come forward for the last 2 years.

[stevenkesslar]

3 hours ago, Lucky said:

The Democrats VOTERS have left us with few choices. They (VOTERS) should have been encouraging candidates to come forward for the last 2 years.

Okay.  But it seems like you just repeated my answer to your question, but phrased it differently.

Again:  And the alternative is?

You didn't actually say there is none.  But you kind of said there is none.

I inserted the word VOTERS in there because that's the issue.

The weird thing is VOTERS are saying two things at the same time.  First, we don't want Biden and Trump.  Second, we do want Biden and Trump. 😯

The explanation is that there are two different groups of voters.  If there were a primary of Independents only, someone other than Biden or Trump might win.  I'm not even sure of that.  But in a Republican primary, Trump will win.  In a Democratic primary, Biden will win.

The Republicans did actually encourage candidates to come forward for the last 2 years.  Why?  Because Trump lost in 2020.  So DeSantis came forward.  Haley came forward.  Pence came forward, and others.  And yet, somehow, in one recent poll Trump is up 60 % in a Republican primary.  How did that happen?  I think it is Republican VOTERS.  Blame it on them.

You're of course right that no Democrats (other than marginal ones like Kennedy) have announced they are running.  But that it because Biden is the incumbent.  Just as important, if any of these other big stars did announce, they would lose.  So Gavin Newsom could announce and run against Biden.  And, if the polls are right, he'd lose badly.  Gretchen Whitmer, also discussed a lot given how well she did in Michigan, could announce.  And she would lose.  So is the idea that Governors or Senators or Sanders, who polls say would lose, should become candidates, so they will lose?  

Unless I am missing something, it sounds like you want a robust primary, like 2020.  Great.  But then Biden will win it, like in 2020.  That is what the polls say will happen. 

The only problem with that is that you quoted someone above saying Trump is is "characterologically unfit," to be President.  Which IMHO  is putting it mildly.  So in practice what it sounds like you're saying is maybe we should have a Democratic primary like 1980.  Which the incumbent will win.  But which will weaken him.  Which will help elect Trump.

I'm not dismissing the issue of Biden's age.  It is clearly the elephant in the room.  And everybody is actually talking about it, including you.  But voters in both primaries are still saying loud and clear that, regardless of who else runs, we're going to nominate Biden and Trump.  So it's not clear to me what you think "party leaders" in either case should do.  They seem to mostly be accepting the will of the VOTERS, whether they like it or not.  About half a dozen GOP Senators were on TV yesterday after the Trump abuse verdict saying he's unelectable in 2024.  But some of them pretty much said that this is what voters in my party want.  What should they do?

The best theoretical solution I can think of to the problem, as you state it, is a national jungle primary.  Like in California.  If there were enough Independents, who in theory outnumber Democrats and Republicans, maybe some third person could emerge.  Like a Ross Perot.  The 1992 election was, in effect, a jungle primary.  But even then Perot came in third.  In practice, even if we could just decide to have a jungle primary - which we can't - most Independents would likely lean toward either Trump or Biden.  Which is exactly what will happen, anyway.

There's a word for it, by the way.  Democracy.  😉

 

 

[Lucky]

Biden himself should have accepted early on that he was going to be a one term president. So I fault him first. I understand the reality of the situation, I'm just saying I can't support it.

The poor American people. Or are they getting what they deserve? I think I know the answer.

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, Lucky said:

Biden himself should have accepted early on that he was going to be a one term president. So I fault him first. I understand the reality of the situation, I'm just saying I can't support it.

The poor American people. Or are they getting what they deserve? I think I know the answer.

I don't disagree with anything you are saying.   We're just having a nice debate about what the alternative is.

One way to read what you just wrote is that Biden will be a one term President, either way.  If he chose not to run, he would for sure be a one term President.  If he chose to run, which he has, then maybe you are saying he will most likely lose.  But you did say above that maybe what that really means is that Harris ends up being POTUS.  

You are not disputing one of my main points.  Which is that if Biden had not run, because he had accepted early on he was a one term President, the likely winner of a 2024 Democratic primary would be .................... Kamala Harris.  Or Bernie Sanders.  My guess is that, like lots of Gay men, you might wish Secretary Pete would be the nominee.  I'd be happy to see him be our first Gay POTUS.  Chasten would make a great First Gay Gentleman.  But show me the poll that says Pete would win.  In every poll I have seen he is #3 or #4 or #5 after Kamala and Sanders.  He ran in 2020.  And Biden beat him.

This recent Harvard/Harris poll is a great one for Democrats like me to read and feel sick and worried about.  Because on the one hand it shows people feel we are on the wrong track, and Biden is too old.  Ugh!  On the other hand, it shows that in a Democratic primary in 2024 Biden gets 37 % of the vote.  Harris gets 10 %.  Secretary Pete gets 7 %, less than Hillary Clinton at 8 %.  Meaning ...................... wait for it ......................... Biden wins.  Even though lots of people feel that the nation Biden is currently POTUS of is on the wrong track, and Biden is too old.

Let's talk about Biden himself.  Yes, it's easy to blame this on him.  Because he's always wanted to be President.  And now that he is he doesn't want to quit. 

But here's some facts, so you be the judge.  In 2016 Obama himself basically thought Hillary should be the one, and Biden should step aside.  That seems like the thing no one wanted to say out loud.  True or not, Hillary was the one.  She lost.  Trump won.  In 2020 I read somewhere that Barack said something like, "Joe, you don't have to do this."  But Joe did it.  And he won, with Barack's help. Biden could be the wise leader who in 2024 says it's best I not run.  But, if you go by polls, that leads to a bitter 2024 primary that nominates someone who is viewed even less favorably than Biden.  So if the point is we don't want Trump back, which I don't, nominating Harris or Sanders does not help. 

So is Biden really being selfish or unwise?  He's a master political whore.  You can argue he sees the handwriting on the wall clearer than most people.  He beat Trump once, and he thinks he can beat him again.  The polls are crystal clear that nominating Harris, who most likely will be nominated if Biden does not run, will not help beat Trump.  Part of my point is this is what VOTERS are doing.  You implicitly acknowledge that when you said maybe the "poor American people" are getting what we deserve.

I'll paint a rosier scenario than you.  What if Biden wins?  I have never been a particular fan of Joe Biden.  I did not vote for him in the 2020 Democratic primary, as I said above.  But he's actually done better than I thought he might.  He has kept his party united.  He has gotten important legislation passed.  And he's been way better on NATO and Ukraine than Trump would have been.  People in Ukraine, and people anywhere who care about democracy prevailing over Putinism, should be happy Biden is POTUS rather than Trump.  So if Biden wins in 2024, is that a disaster?  I don't think so.

Back in 2020, when I would have preferred President Warren,  I thought if I end up with Joe Biden the model for a successful Biden Presidency was Konrad Adenauer.  "Der Alte" lived to be 91.  He served as Chancellor until he was 87, and head of his party until he 90.  He was confirmed as Chancellor in the Bundestag by only one vote in 1949.  But he managed to keep winning until he resigned in 1963, when one of the coalition partners said they'd only support him for his final term if he promised to resign.  By the end of his time in power he was taking naps in the afternoon.  

No one thinks of Adenauer as a senile loser.  I doubt history will view Biden as a senile loser.  Der Alte transitioned Germany from a Nazi nightmare to a solidly democratic and prospering nation.  Biden will not have that legacy.  But if Biden/Harris win in 2024 they will have transitioned the US from Trumpism to whatever lies in store for us in 2028.  I can live with that. 

My hope is that two losses in a row for Trumpy Republicans will have the same impact losing had for Democrats in the 1980's.  Maybe they'll nominate Tim Scott in 2028. He wants to unify America, he says.  Unlike Trump, he says he wants us to have each other's backs again.  He a cheerleader for mainstream multi-racial American capitalism.  I'd love to see a race between Republican Tim Scott and Democrat Kamala Harris in 2028, whether she is POTUS or Veep at that point.   That would make me feel proud to be an American.  

Part of your premise is that Kamala "babbles" and did not "make a good Administrator."  That's your opinion.  There are lots of Republicans who think Secretary Pete is a joke, who is the worst Secretary of Transportation ever. They're entitled to their opinion, too.  As far as objective measures go, Kamala won every race she ran for, usually by wide margins.  Including two statewide offices, where she won 57 % and then 61 % of the vote.  Pete ran for statewide office in 2010 and lost.  You can say Kamala bowed out of the POTUS race in 2020.  But Pete bowed out of the race for DNC Chair in 2017 before the first ballot.  Call them losers.  But they both did live to fight another day.  Biden may have been laying the groundwork for a Kamala/Pete ticket when he chose both.  If Harris and Buttigieg run together in 2028, I'd vote for them in a heartbeat.  But if they run against Tim Scott, and he wins, I'd be happy for him to be our first Black Republican President.  He's someone I deeply admire for his values.

So Trump winning in 2024 would be a disaster to me.  But Biden winning would not be.  I actually think it could lead to lots of good scenarios.  And, like Adenauer did, I'd argue Old Joe did what he promised and protected democratic values.

I know this is a monologue.  But to me, it is going to be the economy, stupid.  And whether Biden or Harris or Bernie or Pete or Gavin or Gretchen top the 2024 ticket, it will be the same economy.  That is what will seal Biden's fate.

The bad news is that right now, according to that poll above, about half of Americans say their personal financial situation is getting worse.  The good news is that is down from 64 % last Summer, when inflation peaked.  The other good news, for Democrats, is that despite these facts Democrats did amazingly well in the midterms, based on what Biden did and talked about.  Meanwhile, Trump election deniers did horribly. 

And yet Republicans want to restore a Liar In Chief who abuses and loses.  So the main thing I think that could get Trump elected in 2024 is "the Biden recession."  But there is nothing anyone can do at this point to stop that, if it is going to happen.  Including Joe Biden.

 

[floridarob]

13 hours ago, Lucky said:

The Democrats have left us with few choices. They should have been encouraging candidates to come forward for the last 2 years.

You could've thrown your hat in the ring at anytime....

[Lucky]

Since I live in California, my vote (or not) counts for little. The state will vote blue.

[floridarob]

I meant as a candidate .....

[Pete1111]

If the TFG returns to the White House our Democracy will continue to suffer.  

Maybe we are fooling ourselves there is even a chance to fix things.  Our state legislative bodies are elected by gerrymandered minorities.  The Supreme Court has lost its prestige.   The House is full of uninformed nitwits.

The mainstream media is treating Biden like he's the problem while they give candidate Trump a voice as if he is not an insurrectionist.

To answer S.K., IMO there is no alternative to Biden.   He has done a credible job.  He didn't fuck up in Afghanistan.  Trump fucked that up, giving the Taliban such a sweet (art of the) deal, yet the media never focused on that.

You guys love to bitch about Harris yet let's hear you list all of Pence's accomplishments.  His was a great ass kisser.  That's the one talent I recall.  IMO the black lady has done her job like all Veeps do.

Lastly will the landscape improve when Fanni Willis and Jack Smith put the hammer down with their indictments.

 

 

[Suckrates]

[Suckrates]

10 minutes ago, Pete1111 said:

If the TFG returns to the White House our Democracy will continue to suffer.  

Maybe we are fooling ourselves there is even a chance to fix things.  Our state legislative bodies are elected by gerrymandered minorities.  The Supreme Court has lost its prestige.   The House is full of uninformed nitwits.

The mainstream media is treating Biden like he's the problem while they give candidate Trump a voice as if he is not an insurrectionist.

To answer S.K., IMO there is no alternative to Biden.   He has done a credible job.  He didn't fuck up in Afghanistan.  Trump fucked that up, giving the Taliban such a sweet (art of the) deal, yet the media never focused on that.

You guys love to bitch about Harris yet let's hear you list all of Pence's accomplishments.  His was a great ass kisser.  That's the one talent I recall.  IMO the black lady has done her job like all Veeps do.

Lastly will the landscape improve when Fanni Willis and Jack Smith put the hammer down with their indictments.

 

 

 

 

If we are so fortunate to see Trump indictments,  we also need to get CONVICTIONS !!!!!!      Brandishing Trump with only an "indictment" label, does nothing to slow him down, as we have already seen.   We need convictions and JAIL !

When that happens, i'll celebrate. 

[Pete1111]

3 hours ago, Suckrates said:

 

 

If we are so fortunate to see Trump indictments,  we also need to get CONVICTIONS !!!!!!      Brandishing Trump with only an "indictment" label, does nothing to slow him down, as we have already seen.   We need convictions and JAIL !

When that happens, i'll celebrate. 

Oh....they'll be indictments!

Those are coming.

Jail time?   Time will tell.   

Rikers?

Guantanamo?

No more golf?

No more YMCA jiggy?

I think so.

[Suckrates]

11 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Oh....they'll be indictments!

Those are coming.

Jail time?   Time will tell.   

Rikers?

Guantanamo?

No more golf?

No more YMCA jiggy?

I think so.

[caeron]

 

I want an alternative to Biden, but I will absolutely vote for him if he's the democratic candidate. US elections have always been in my lifetime the lesser of two evils. Why would I expect it to suddenly change now?

[stevenkesslar]

On 5/14/2023 at 5:01 PM, caeron said:

 

US elections have always been in my lifetime the lesser of two evils. Why would I expect it to suddenly change now?

And here I always thought HE was "The One."

So this is arguably a bit off topic.  But Biden's approval ratings have something to do with whether Biden will win in 2024.

They have tanked in Rasmussen in the last week.  Granted, Rasmussen tends to be biased toward Republicans.  But, biased or not, they have a daily rating you can compare apples to apples.

Biden Approval Index History

Back in Summer 2022 when inflation peaked Biden often had a -30 approval index on Rasmussen.  Meaning the difference between those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove.  The most recent rating that bad was July 22, 2022 when 49 % strongly disapproved and only 18 % approved, for a -31 approval index.

As recently as April 11, 2023 Biden was down to - 9, meaning 31 % strongly approved and 40 % strongly disapproved.  Presumably the easing of inflation has a lot to do with that.  That's the first time since Summer 2021 Biden's negative approval index was as low as a single digit.  So he seemed to be recovering.

As of today, it's -27, with 48 % strong disapproval and only 21 % strong approval.  That down from -12 just a week ago!

It has to be the debt ceiling/default scare.  

The polls I've seen say Americans are overwhelmingly in favor of reducing the deficit.   Which would seem to favor McCarthy.  But they are also overwhelmingly against linking deficit reduction to default.  Which would seem to favor Biden.  So who knows? 

When McCarthy just said "they want a default more than they want a deal" he's implicitly saying that he's willing to hold the US hostage to getting a deal.  There's no snap poll that measures how people react to statements like that.  But there are polls saying THAT is exactly what most Americans don't want.

It is hard for me to imagine Biden, McCarthy, and McConnell allowing a default to occur.  If only because it would make all of them, and many others, look like shit.  If there is some debt reduction deal my guess is that, along with the continuing reduction in inflation pressures, it will gradually add momentum to Biden's case for a second term.

 

[stevenkesslar]

On 5/8/2023 at 3:31 PM, Lucky said:

Right now I cannot support a Biden/Harris ticket in 2024. Sure, Trump is not a good candidate either.

Holy Lucky lottery ticket, Batman!

I think the race is over.  And neither Biden nor Trump will win.

Randy Rainbow is throwing his weight, and his show tunes, behind Guv Meatball.  I think that gets Ron the Gay vote, the Fashion vote, and the Broadway vote.  That's a majority, right?  😉

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

I'm posting this here since it relates to how Biden/Harris does in 2024.

These are articles about two studies that bode well for Democrats in 2024.  They both suggest that Democrats were able to stop a red wave in 2022 through effective mobilization of their voters where it really mattered.  If they did it in 2022, they can do it again in 2024, presumably.

Why the 2022 midterms broke for Democrats and what that means for 2024

Quote

The report finds that there were two elections in 2022: one in the highly contested states and another in states without competitive statewide contests. There was no national trend that produced swings across the board as in past elections. Where 2022 broke ranks with past midterm patterns, it favored Democrats.

Quote

About 111 million people cast ballots in 2022, compared with 118 million in 2018. But as the Catalist report notes, “Turnout matched or even exceeded 2018 turnout in the most highly contested elections in the country.” 

Quote

In the most contested elections for Senate and governor, Democratic candidates got a slightly larger share of the two-party vote in 2022 than in 2020 and won 13 of 18 races that were listed as tossups or leaning toward one party or the other by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

As a former community organizer, it's not hard for me to believe the idea that organizing and mobilization made a difference where it really mattered.

This is consistent with what Senate campaign head Gary Peters said both before and after the midterms.  His focus was on face to face voter contact, he said.  It may have helped that Democrats were weak at that in 2020, compared to Republicans, because of different perceptions about COVID and human contact.  That problem was apparently solved in 2022.  It would also fit with this theory that Republicans, who did lots of organizing and voter registration under the leadership of Ron D, got the red wave in Florida that skipped the Rust Belt.

It will always be a mystery to me why our first and only Community Organizer In Chief, Barack Obama, let the DNC and party machinery collapse on his watch.  Lots of people think that helped drive the destruction of state and local Democratic benches in Obama's time.  Or was it just the overall reaction against Democrats in 2010 and 2014, that nothing could have stoppedd?

Mystery At The Midterm: What Happened To The Red Wave?

That academic, who makes me look concise by comparison, provides lots of evidence that Democratic money, mobilization and organizing made a huge difference in the key swing states.  His main argument is that there was a red wave.  But Democrats built a breakwater that stopped it in most of the places that mattered.

Quote

Both real and publicly perceived conditions before and up to Election Day provided all the ingredients for a very good Republican year. That red wave had formed, was within sight and headed to shore, but never made it. What happened? Extending the wave metaphor, Democrats constructed what amounted to a breakwater, effectively fending off the wave. It was particularly successful in about eight states with crucial tight races for statewide offices. Democrats built their breakwater from easy mail-in voting provisions, effective mobilization programs, and massive campaign spending to fuel the push. It succeeded because Republicans failed to counter it.

Campbell, the author, dismisses much of the conventional wisdom about 2022.  Like the idea that there was national reaction against Trump.  Or that a youth blue wave countered the older MAGA red wave.

That matters a lot for 2024.  I personally have a hard time believing Trump was NOT the toxic horse that derailed the GOP cart.  Basically by shitting all over the wheels with his democracy killing lies and democracy raping bullshit. 

What was particularly interesting about 2022 is that all the relatively "normie" conservatives that did not drench themselves in Trump's bile did well.  DeWine, DeSantis, Sununu, Kemp.  Meanwhile, pretty Kari Lake showed up to the Guv's Ball all fashion forward, drenched in Trump's vomit. Voters rejected her, and most of the other pus-covered election deniers.  Geez.  Why could that be?  Same trend seemingly just played out in Kentucky, where a few more election denying turds were flushed down the toilet in Republican primaries.

But then, I'm biased.  😯  We'll learn more in 2024.

 

 

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

[Pete1111]

A lot of people are saying it......Biden doesn't have the mental faculties that Trump has.  

 

 

[JKane]