Joe Manchin 2024 Independent Presidential candidate?

[KYTOP]

I have seen suggestions that Manchin run for President as an Independent. I think the Media is pushing the conversation because it will make for a an even livelier election for them if he runs a campaign.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3982358-manchin-third-party-white-house-bid/

I personally hopes he runs because it will make for a very entertaining election season.

Would Manchin running as a 3rd party hurt Biden? Would the moderate Democrats that have tired of the extreme leftward turn of their party vote for him? 

Would it hurt Trump giving anti-Trump republicans a place to land? 

The real decision voters in this country are now Independent voters. Where would they land? Would Manchin appeal to the suburban soccer mom voters?

Does a 3rd party candidate really stand a chance in a USA Presidential election? They usually just serve as a spoiler that can change an election. Bush would have won a second term if Ross Perot had not have run, giving the Election to Clinton.

Obviously more questions than answers but interesting to consider what happens if Manchin does run.

[caeron]

"Extreme leftward turn"?

You and I have a very different understanding of the word extreme. Biden is about as oatmeal as it gets. There have always been a few outliers who always get more media because reporters think that's more entertaining.  I wish the media would stop trying to entertain us and try instead to inform us.

 

 

[Mavica]

8 hours ago, KYTOP said:

I personally hopes he runs because it will make for a very entertaining election season.

That's a sick reason.  Really sick, and ignorant of the possible negative consequences.  I'm going to assume you do not live in the United States.

[KYTOP]

1 hour ago, Mavica said:

That's a sick reason.  Really sick, and ignorant of the possible negative consequences.  I'm going to assume you do not live in the United States.

Yes I live in the US and no that is not a sick reason. If Manchin runs you will see issues arise and debated that might not be part of the debate between Biden and Trump. A lively exchange of views and debate are one of the basic foundations of our democracy. Yes I do think a real debate on issues is entertaining and of great interest.

[TotallyOz]

I like the idea of a third or forth or fifth party. It makes sense to me. I think someone should start the Pro-Ho party.

If Ross Perot had not withdrawn years back and then reentered, I think we would have a 3rd party today. It just didn't happen.

The USA is so ingrained in two parties but neither fully fit my beliefs.

[KYTOP]

2 hours ago, caeron said:

"Extreme leftward turn"?

You and I have a very different understanding of the word extreme. Biden is about as oatmeal as it gets. There have always been a few outliers who always get more media because reporters think that's more entertaining.  I wish the media would stop trying to entertain us and try instead to inform us.

 

 

Yes I think the word extreme depends on many things like what area of the country you live or even if you live in the US.  Biden is not oatmeal, Bill Clinton was more oatmeal as you say. Biden's policies are way left of were Clinton was at.

I live in a state that had 2 Democrats for every Republican. A year and a half ago the Republicans passed the Democrats in voter registration with Independents also making gains, all at the expense of the Democrats. Why is that do you think? I hear the Democrat party left me, I didn't leave them very often. They do not like the, in their opinion, the extreme leftward turn of the Democrats since they voted for Bill Clinton. In Machin's West Virginia the same thing is happening. W Va. was rock solid Democrat and the UMW (United Mine Workers) dominated the party. Sen Byrd of W. VA was one of the most powerful Democratic Senators ever. Now it has rapidly changed since Manchin served as the W Va. Governor. Of course the city of Los Angeles has twice the population of W. Virginia. So the Democrats of Left Coast and Northeast easily rule the Democratic party now. What California thinks as normal is extreme for former Democratic states.

And many Republicans are tired of Trump. Maybe Manchin gives those Republicans and Flyover Country Democrats a candidate more toward their thinking?

I think a no body but Biden thinking is sick because I do believe the man has  a mental decline due to age. 

[fedssocr]

Manchin is an attention whore (moreso than most politicians) so I suppose it's possible he could run. He'll get 2% like most independent candidates. It's hard to imagine a guy who drives a Maserati, lives on a yacht, and owns a coal company will have much appeal

[Mavica]

1 hour ago, KYTOP said:

Yes I live in the US and no that is not a sick reason.

Ok, I'll put it nicely:  It's naive ... and lacks an understanding of the existing political process and the impacts of individual actions.  it's not a game.  The stakes are high.  Manchin is selfish ... represents very special interests ... and has a distinguished career to this point.  His selfishness doesn't equate to what's in the best interest of the nation.  If there's a third party candidate - Manchin- he'd draw votes from Biden and if Trump is the GOP nominee he'd win the general election.  Once again ... it's not a game, it's real life.

[floridarob]

2 hours ago, KYTOP said:

I live in a state that had 2 Democrats for every Republican.

Isn't your state red, if you still live in KY?

2 hours ago, KYTOP said:

Biden thinking is sick because I do believe the man has  a mental decline due to age. 

He's OK....don't be a hater, lol

We give presidents more credit than they deserve , just like CEO's.

The administration comes up with the ideas and they ask his opinion, maybe. Maybe Obama was more involved....do you think Bush Jr or Chaney ran the show 🤨

As far as extremists ....the media gives more attention to them,  on both sides.  The MAJORITY of the country is closer to center on most things, we have more in common than people think.

I get into "discussions" on social media sometimes and after the insults and name calling, we see how much we agree on other non-divisive issues (pushed by media).

[caeron]

14 hours ago, KYTOP said:

Why is that do you think? 

I think it has been because the Republicans have become masters at feeding white anger. White fascism sells. It's a pity they are so angry they forget to check on who gave away the store to corporations and the rich instead of helping them.

[stevenkesslar]

On 5/3/2023 at 8:23 AM, KYTOP said:

Would the moderate Democrats that have tired of the extreme leftward turn of their party vote for him? 

Here's an entertaining question, that partly depends on your ideology.  Which is more extreme?  A:  Dramatically reducing child poverty in West Virginia by 50,000 kids; or B.  Intentionally saying, "Let's spike child poverty up by 41 %.  We need more poor White kids in West Virginia!"

Of course, Joe Manchin didn't literally say that.  And I personally don't view him as a cruel sadist.  But the reality is the child tax credits, which in the Clinton era were more or less bipartisan, did dramatically reduce poverty in West Virginia and nationally for a year or so.  And Manchin did intentionally kill them, it seems.  He had to know the impact of his actions was going to be driving lots of his constituents' kids back into poverty.  Is that extreme?  Or is lifting them out of poverty extreme?

The reductions in poverty were dramatic and across the board for White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian families.  But what I read suggests the group it helped the most was working class Hispanic families with lots of kids.  Is that an extreme idea?  Should the Democratic message be:  We want the children of working class Hispanics to be poor?  Child poverty is good for Brown kids, and good for America!

Obviously you can tell what my ideology is.  But, that said, speaking as liberal Democrat, I have a love/hate relationship with Joe Manchin.  Speaking of extreme, he is an extremely brazen political whore.  Even by the standards of any other US Senator with deep ties and endless pipelines of money from special interests, like Big Coal and Big Pharma.  But it's clear that when he takes on liberal Democrats, his popularity in West Virginia soars.  And when he gets in bed with Biden on things like green energy subsidies, his popularity in West Virginia plummets.  So if Democrats want to win in West Virginia, they do need to listen to Joe Manchin.  Arguably, getting in bed with his own party on the Inflation Reduction Act will cost Manchin his Senate seat.  Which might explain why he wants to run for President.

I thought this was an exceptionally good Politico article that put Manchin in a broader context, and addresses the question of what is extreme:

The Revolution Joe Manchin (Probably) Can’t Stop

That article nailed it.  Manchin is an important voice.  But a losing voice. 

Objectively speaking, West Virginia is now at an extreme.  As in an extremely pro-Trump state where Democrats would need to be pseudo-Republicans, or Trump suck ups,  to win.  That won't happen.  That Politico article was written in the middle of the Build Back Better shit show.  Manchin could and did slow down "the revolution."  But he didn't and won't stop it.  Instead, he'll just lose in 2024, most likely - whether he runs for Senate or President. 

And I think Politico is correct that "the revolution" isn't Bernie, or socialism.  It's Biden, and his reverence for The New Deal and LBJ and MLK and all that.  Which child tax credits to cut child poverty in half are actually a very good example of.   That said, the polls showed that Americans were split down the middle on child tax credits.  The main issue, which is what Manchin clearly was concerned about, is whether we could afford them.  That debate is far from over.  And the overwhelming consensus among Democrats is we'll fight for these past victories like Medicare and these next victories like child tax credits.  That's Biden.  If we need to raise taxes on billionaires to help poor Hispanic kids, we'll do it.  And at least on that part of his message, I think he's got a winner.

Democrats, my team, have a big problem.  Because if we ever want to bring back those child tax credits, to cut child poverty in half, we are going to have to be able to elect people like Claire McCaskill in Missouri, or Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, or Richard Donnelly in Indiana.  I'm of course referring to three actual Democratic Senators from "red" states who lost as recently as 2018.  If those three Senators had won in 2018, and instead Manchin had lost in 2018, Build Back Better would be law, for better or worse.  Democrats would have had a 52-48 Senate majority.  So BBB would be law with probably a vote or two to spare. 

And while I can't point to polling, I don't think cutting child poverty in half is the kind of extreme thing where people in Missouri and Indiana would so, "Oh, no!  We can't have that.  We want our White rural children to be poor."  What the polling actually showed is that McCaskill and Heitkamp were ahead in Summer 2018.  And their positions on affordable health care were a big driver putting them in the lead.  McCaskill said the minute Anthony Kennedy resigned and it opened up a SCOTUS seat, she knew she was in big trouble.  It changed the debate in "red" states like Missouri.  And especially working class White men, who might have agreed with McCaskill on health care, turned against her in a big wave.  So Democrats do need to worry about the working class White men Manchin often says he speaks for.

Did I mention these three seats are up for grabs again in 2024?  I'm happy to lose Manchin.  On a list of states Democrats should try to win, West Virginia is arguably now dead last.  Speaking as a pragmatic Democrat, I'd rather figure out how we can elect people like McCaskill in Missouri, Heitkamp in North Dakota, and Donnelly in Indiana.  That will require some moderation.  But NOT Joe Manchin.  The best sitting example today is Jon Tester in Montana.  Sherrod Brown in Ohio is another.  They keep winning, but NOT by acting like Joe Manchin.  Those five Senators are perfect examples of Democrats who managed to win elections repeatedly by avoiding being seen as extreme AOC-type Sandernistas with crazy liberal ideas.  To Politico's main point, they could win elections based on an agenda that could be called New Deal Lite.  

I'll end by giving a nod to Allan Lichtman's Keys To the Presidency again.  And by noting that a Joe Manchin third party campaign would most likely help elect Donald Trump.  One of Lichtman's 13 keys is whether a third party is able to get 5 % or more of the vote. He says history suggests that's a sign the incumbent party is in trouble. 

2016 is a perfect example of the danger for Biden.  Lichtman has called every Presidential race since 1984 right, in advance.  When he called it for Trump in September 2016 he said it would be close.  And it could change, he said.  Because one of the reasons Trump would win is the third party candidacy of Gary Johnson would be a nail in Hillary's coffin.  If those third party votes move to Hillary, that could be her margin of victory, he said in that hyperlinked article.  As it turned out, the third party candidates combined got just over 5 % of the vote, which is Lichtman's threshold.  So no can say this for a fact.  But I think most people who dug into the data think Johnson and Stein helped Hillary lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 

A Joe Manchin candidacy, if it could draw away 5 % or more of the electorate, might well do the same.  Third party candidate John Anderson (6.6 % of the vote) helped Reagan win in 1980. And as was noted above, Ross Perot (18.9 % of the vote) helped Bill Clinton win in 1992. 1968 (George Wallace got 13.5 %) was another example where a strong third party showing signaled the defeat of the (LBJ/Humphrey) party in power.  The one recent exception was 1996, when Perot got 8.4 %, and the incumbent (Clinton) won, anyway.  But The Keys system says it's a combination of factors.  I think Lichtman would say in 1996 it was the economy, stupid, that was the biggest thing Clinton had going for him.

That April 1996 article spelling out which 4 keys Clinton had working against him is worth a look if you want to consider how Joe Manchin could be the nail in Joe Biden's coffin.  Lichtman and his Russian academic partner (who was an expert at predicting volcanos) argued that when a President has 6 or more of those Keys working against them, it's just a historical fact that they will lose.  So the 5th key that ended up working against incumbent Bill Clinton in Fall 1996 was Perot.  That's 5 keys, which is not enough.

Biden right now has three of the same keys against him that Clinton did:  1 (midterm losses), 11 (no foreign policy victory), and 12 (no charisma).  Unlike Clinton, Biden has 7 (mostly popular major policy changes) working in his favor.  (Biden's argument is, "Let me finish the job.")  So then the question is which three additional keys could turn against Biden and bring back Trump?  My argument would be the two economy keys.  Like we are in a recession in Fall 2024.  And the sixth and fatal key could be a Joe Manchin (or Joe Liberman) candidacy.  If it gets enough traction to siphon away Independent and moderate Republican votes from Biden. 

This is especially true, I think, if Trump is the nominee.  We know for a fact the strongest thing Trump has going for him is an almost fanatically loyal base.  If Joe Manchin changes the math so that Trump only needs 46 % of the vote to win, we know Trump can do that.

[stevenkesslar]

On 5/3/2023 at 6:15 PM, KYTOP said:

I live in a state that had 2 Democrats for every Republican. A year and a half ago the Republicans passed the Democrats in voter registration with Independents also making gains, all at the expense of the Democrats. Why is that do you think?

Fair enough.  This article notes that the biggest political factor in KY, like in the US, is the growth of Independents that don't align with either party.

I know I took up my bandwidth already above.  But if the question is: what do Democrats need to do to win in red states, that's a great question.  And Kentucky offers a particularly good answer.

Kentucky’s Beshear Ranks as America’s Most Popular Democratic Governor Ahead of Re-Election Bid

Six in 10 Kentucky voters approve of Beshear’s job performance, while 34% disapprove

I singled out health care as an issue that was a plus, but not enough, for Democratic Senators who lost in Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota in 2018.  I'd single it out as something that helped Beshear win in 2019.  And health care will be one of the factors that helped if he does win re-election in 2023, like his Dad managed to do.  KYNect was wildly popular, and successful, until Republican Gov. Matt Bevin took an axe to it.  I recall reading stories about voters saying they were on KYNect, and it's great.  But they hate Obamacare.  (It's the same thing.)  

I agree with you that Democrats have an obvious problem in red states.  And it is due to both the perception and reality of extreme positions.  My main point, as a Democrat who would like to win more often in red states, is I don't think the solution is we need more Joe Manchins to run in states like West Virginia.  Or for President.  I think we need more Andy Beshears to run, and win, in states like Kentucky.

 

[KYTOP]

I appreciate your comments. My intent was to try to fuel a conversation about what the possibility of a third party candidate would have on the 2024 election. You have done that, thanks. 

As for my state , Kentucky, I have watched dumbfounded as the dynamics of the Democrats have shifted here. The 2 Urban areas, Louisville and Lexington are still Democrat areas and somewhat liberal. I live in one of those cities and I have a Democrat Representative in the US Congress. He lives about a mile and a half from my home. Until about 5 years or so ago the Democrats still controlled the state legislature. This was due to the Urban area Democrats and the UMW (United Mine Workers) Democrats of the Eastern Ky Mountain areas. But after the Trump Election the Eastern Ky UMW Democrats became Trump Republicans almost overnight, amazing. The Democrats then lost the State Legislature with the Eastern Ky shift. Now the KY urban areas and state Capital are Democrat and the rest of the state has turned from the Democrat party. 

Yes we have a very popular Democrat Governor. This actually has little to due to KYNect, most people don't even know what it is. WE had 2 very large natural disasters within months of each other. First a Big Tornado that flattened a whole town in Western Ky. A very conservation area. Then a huge flash flood in the Eastern Ky Mountains that wiped out hundreds of homes, the former UMW Democrat area. Many lives were lost in both disasters. Governor Breshear was on the ground in these areas fast and daily getting resources in and hugging every old lady in sight and telling them everything would taken care of. He had a great response to these disasters and his popularity skyrocketed. My Mother is an Eisenhower Republican. Eisenhower was the first person she voted for and she has been a Republican every since. Even she has praise for the Democrat Governor. I asked if she will vote for him this November and she was non committal but she did not say no.

But to show what a politician Breshear is, we had a recent mass shooting here and our Democrat Congressman and our Democrat Mayor both immediately called for a banning of assault weapons and other gun control laws. Our Democrat Governor on assault weapons..... Silence. He was attending all News Conferences on the Mass shooting, but was conveniently absent at that news conference were gun control was brought up.  He did raise the issue of a Red Flag law for those with mental health issues. Why the silence? He would immediately lose many of the Western Ky  rural and Eastern Ky UMW voters if he advocates for Gun Control. His reelection campaign would suddenly go dead in the water. This is a smart move to remain silent if he wants to be reelected. 

I do expect the Kentucky Democrat Governor will easily win reelection unless something unexpected, like gun control, become issues. I also expect that he will run for the US Senate to replace McConnell, especially if McConnell decides not to run for another term.

[Mavica]

4 hours ago, KYTOP said:

I appreciate your comments. My intent was to try to fuel a conversation about what the possibility of a third party candidate would have on the 2024 election. You have done that ..

I think your slip is showing.  A GOP admirer, Democratic critic ... maybe even a MAGA supporter.  Otherwise, you're very confused.  🤢

[Pete1111]

On 5/3/2023 at 7:12 PM, Mavica said:

Ok, I'll put it nicely:  It's naive ... and lacks an understanding of the existing political process and the impacts of individual actions.  it's not a game.  The stakes are high.  Manchin is selfish ... represents very special interests ... and has a distinguished career to this point.  His selfishness doesn't equate to what's in the best interest of the nation.  If there's a third party candidate - Manchin- he'd draw votes from Biden and if Trump is the GOP nominee he'd win the general election.  Once again ... it's not a game, it's real life.

...and if Trump wins, all the insurrectionists and other guilty parties get out of jail, including some still not indicted yet. 

Our Democracy needs Biden to win. 

Back to the comment about our country has taken a left turn....that is just news media bullsh!t.  The Dems chose Biden because he is not far left.  The country is at risk from far right loonies and fascists.  There is no "left turn."

[stevenkesslar]

11 hours ago, KYTOP said:

But after the Trump Election the Eastern Ky UMW Democrats became Trump Republicans almost overnight, amazing.

I think that's the issue, in part.  The polls show clearly that phrases like "defund the police" and "socialism" scare and annoy people.  That said, the murder rate in my state is way higher in Kevin McCarthy's Bakersfield than in blue LA or Pelosifrisco.  Like I said, some of the "extreme: stuff is real stuff - like "defund the police."  Some of it inflammatory bullshit.  In 2022 there were lots of pictures of Kevin McCarthy standing next to cops.  But Senator Gary Peters, who ran the Senate Democratic campaigns, had a great line.  He said, other than photo ops, Republicans didn't really offer much.  They didn't do so well, he thought, because they mostly focused on telling people about problems they already knew they had.

What happened to McCaskill in Missouri is a cautionary tale.  At least in my liberal mind, it aligns with this idea that UMW Democrats in Kentucky became Trumpers overnight.  How exactly do you stop that?  The crude way I think of McCaskill's fate is that she lost because Trump rallied the Testicle Vote against Christine Blasey Ford.  I was contributing to McCaskill and Heitkamp, because i want moderate Democratic Senators.  The polling was pretty clear that White men turned against both of them, and Donnelly, when things got polarized around SCOTUS.  Which I guess is a form of culture war.  I think Ruy Teixeira, who I cite a lot, is right that Democrats need to tone down some of the culture war stuff and focus on economic populism.  Trump is, at heart, an economic populist.  But one with authoritarian tendencies, to put it politely.

I really don't buy the idea that third party campaigns help drive debates on anything that really matters.  I think Lichtman is right about that. (By the way, I was mistaken above.  His Russian buddy was a world renowned predictor of earthquakes, not volcanoes.)  I think the idea that a surging third party movement reflects a potential political earthquake is coming makes sense.  Just like, for example, huge losses in midterms reflect seismic political rumblings.  But it's hard to identify any policy outcome from third party candidates of the past.  George Wallace was basically defending Southern Democratic racism.  But he ended up flip flopping and apologizing.  What did John Anderson get done?  My own view is that Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson and Jill Stein basically helped elect W. and Trump. 

The one person who was both amusing and maybe effective was Ross Perot.  You could argue he helped put a focus on deficits, and the need to control them.  But I'd argue what did that even better was the 1994 midterms.  Arguably, Clinton had no choice but to negotiate with the Gingrich conservative insurgents.  Although I think Clinton was inclined to want to reduce deficits, anyway.  But if Manchin or Lieberman or any of these No Labels people run, I don't see how that moves the dial. 

What I am hoping Biden does is move the dial and cut a deal regarding deficits.  The fact that he is dragging your Senator, McConnell, into it may be one good sign.  As McConnell himself said, those two know how to negotiate.  So does McCarthy, for that matter.  If they pull a Clinton and put us on a path to deficit reduction, that would help.  But I have more faith in Biden, Schumer, McConnell and McCarthy to do that than I ever would in Joe Manchin.

[stevenkesslar]

On 5/5/2023 at 4:53 PM, KYTOP said:

Yes we have a very popular Democrat Governor. This actually has little to due to KYNect, most people don't even know what it is. WE had 2 very large natural disasters within months of each other.  Governor Beshear was on the ground in these areas fast and daily getting resources in and hugging every old lady in sight and telling them everything would taken care of.

I know this is a thread about third parties.  And part of your point is the Democrats need to moderate to win.  Especially in states like Kentucky.  So I thought the results of the primaries in Kentucky and elsewhere were encouraging, as Politico reports it:

Quote

“Crime runs rampant in our largest cities. Fentanyl is ravaging our communities,” [Republican Gubernatorial primary winner] Cameron said in his victory speech. “The left is trying to hijack women’s sports and our schools are on the verge of becoming breeding grounds for liberal and progressive ideas.”

Quote

Beshear, meanwhile, will try to avoid the national Democratic Party at all costs while trying to carry forward a brand that has made him popular: Being an apolitical bureaucrat who is best equipped to lead the state for four more years. “Let me ask you, is seeing people talk down our state and our economy, insult our people and stoke divisions going to help that next company choose Kentucky? Beshear said in his speech Tuesday night. “Of course not. But we know Kentuckians are tough, kind, hardworking people.”

The Republican Party is an interesting mess.  David Cameron, a McConnell protege, is exactly the kind of face I hope the Republican Party keeps building:  normal, multi-racial conservative capitalism.  I'm glad he put Crazy Rich Croft to bed.  Just like the "normal" Republican Secretary of State put another Trumpy sounding election denier to bed.

That said, Cameron apparently thinks he has to run on a culture war agenda about trannies and churches.  And somehow Trump endorsed the right person in this race. While DeSantis somehow managed to reinforce the idea that he is the very conservative guy, kind of mean, kind of a bully, who backs losers.  When it seems like he would want to be the competent Guv, like Beshear, who handles disasters well and wins.

Mostly, I like where my Democratic Party is.  Beshear knows his limits in Kentucky.  I think Biden knows his limits in a political environment where Kentucky doesn't matter to his re-election chances in 2024.  But Pennsylvania does. 

Speaking of which, Democrats kept the Pennsylvania House and elected a pragmatist as the likely first female Mayor in Philly.  I was surprised the "Black progressive" won in Chicago.  But he was running against a White kind of conservative.  I think Philly is a good example of the tug of war Democrats are having between "progressive" and "pragmatic" voices.  I'm biased.  But it seems clear there is room for both.  And we need both to win.  In the case of Philly, the "Black pragmatist" who wants more cops on the street won.

If the goal is to win and govern, I'd rather be Beshear than Cameron.  And I'd rather be Biden than Trump or DeSantis.

To make this book length, I of course have to add one more point.  So I'll repeat that I'm not sure about third parties.

I watched an interview of Allan Lichtman a few weeks ago on some radio show.  He pointed out, no surprise, that nominating Biden is the best chance Democrats have to win in 2024.  Because he is the incumbent.  And he will prevent a bloody intra-party fight, like the Republicans will likely have.  Lichtman did not mention it.  But a strong third party candidate would be a third potential nail in Biden's coffin. 

So Lichtman's model, which he used to predict every POTUS race since 1984 correctly in advance, says that you need 6 nails out of 13 for Biden's coffin to be nailed shut in 2024.  Him being the incumbent, with no party war, and no strong third party candidate, would eliminate three of those nails.  Lichtman said it's too early to predict 2024.  But the four things he is watching are the long term economy, whether there is a recession, and whether there is a military success and/or a military failure.  In other words, important stuff.  Not polls or bullshit.  Not "age."  He did predict, I'd bet correctly, that "age" will turn out to be a lot of useless noise.  Just like it was for Reagan in 1984.

 

 

 

[KYTOP]

A fairly good assessment of Kentucky Governor race. It is definitely Beshear's to lose. Even though McConnell is believed to be behind a PAC that supported Cameron, to the tune of a couple Mil, he kept a low profile in the race, mainly due to Trump. Also McConnell, as referenced by Ky political commentator Al Cross, did not want Cameron to run for Governor but for the Senate as his possible successor. It is expected that McConnell will retire at the end of his term. His polio as a youth is now causing him mobility and other issues as an aged adult.

Factors in the race are Trump and Blue Dog Democrats that now are registered Republicans in KY. Trump is still immensely popular in ALL areas outside Louisville, Frankfort and Lexington. A visit by him to Eastern Ky mountains regions or Western Ky may help Cameron.

Also, Kentucky for decades was a Democrat state and many of those Democrats, now registered as Republicans, still want to vote for a Democrat if they are not too liberal. Beshear knows this and so far is successfully walking that tight rope by staying away from such things as an assault weapons ban and playing up a big increase in the State Police salaries, showing support for law enforcement. Also Beshear has a HUGE war chest that there is no way Cameron can catchup to.

There aren't many Political Races nationally in November and so Ky will be in the spotlight a bit this year. The Democratic Governors organization has already paid for a 6 figure ad buy that is already running on TV stations in the state.

[stevenkesslar]

On 5/20/2023 at 8:54 PM, KYTOP said:

A fairly good assessment of Kentucky Governor race. It is definitely Beshear's to lose.

And, so far, it looks like he ain't gonna lose it.  😊

As an update on these comments from months ago, this new polling from Kentucky is encouraging.  In a red state where Biden is down 34/55 against Trump, Beshear is leading Republican Cameron 49/41.    Good for him for pandering to the middle.

To make an at least somewhat logical leap to a conclusion, this adds support to my theory of Ron DeSantis.  He was polling at like 60 % approval after the competent job he appeared to do  (even to Democrats, the polls said) cleaning up after a hurricane.  And before his culture war legislative session.  Now he is polling at 50 %, with his abortion and gun laws in particular being wildly unpopular.  While it's a bit wishful thinking, maybe Ron has taken himself out as a potential POTUS in 2028 and opened the door for a Democratic Guv to replace him and his unpopular right-wing policies.

Meanwhile, Beshear seems to be proving that what people want, and will vote for, is competent government.  Which, in his case, is left of center.  But not woke.  I like it that he can so far seemingly get away with calling Kentucky's Republican handling of abortion "draconian."