Isn't it better if real Republicans nominate Trump, since DeSantis is a pussy and a traitor, anyway?

[Suckrates]

 

To ease HIS Trump sorrow, DeSantis and his white go-go boots will be featured in a New DisneyWorld Florida attraction titled "Florida, Its a Small GAY World".....

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

So this is one of two very geeky data-oriented posts today.

The new conventional wisdom appears to be that real Republicans are rallying around Trump, which will make it easier for him to win the GOP primary.  But this will make it worse for Republicans in the 2024 general election.  We won't know for a long time how many more Kari Lakes and Herschel Walkers Trump may bring to the party in 2024 GOP primaries.  But there's no reason to think he won't try.  Or that it will somehow work out better than it did in Senate or Guv races in 2022.  (Of course, there will always be Justice in West Virginia.  So that's one bright spot.)

This conventional wisdom is not just The Fake News.  Prominent Republicans saying this include GOP Establishment icons like pollster Whit Ayers.  As well as Fallen Judas Conservatives like Morning Joe and Michael Steele.  Current Republicans will say this anonymously.  And presumably the Top Guv himself thinks this way.  But other than a few Also Rans (Asa Hutchinson) or Never Rans (Chris Sununu) no Republican who wants to win an election wants to say it publicly.  And piss The Magical MAGA Kingdom off by debunking fairy tales.

But the conventional wisdom seems to be true.  I went to 538 and summarize below every state level poll taken so far in 2023 regarding how state races would go next year.  It's clear that Republicans are a bit more likely to win key swing states with DeSantis.  And a bit more likely to lose key swing states with Trump.  Below is every state poll listed on 538 year to date that has both a Trump/Biden and DeSantis/Biden horse race to compare, starting with the most recent.  Could somebody please let me know when Trump's MAGA Republicans get tired of wanting to lose?

Iowa, April 3 -4:

Trump 46/Biden 40, DeSantis 48/Biden 38 - Trump beats Biden by 6, DeSantis beats Biden by 10

North Carolina, March 26-27:

Trump 43/Biden 45, DeSantis 44/Biden 41 - Biden beats Trump by 2, DeSantis beats Biden by 3

Florida, March 15-19:

Trump 44/Biden 44, DeSantis 46/Biden 43 - Biden and Trump tied (in Florida???), DeSantis beats Biden by (only) 3 (in Florida???)

Florida, Fed 25-Mar 7:

Trump 50/Biden 43, DeSantis 51, Biden 42 - Trump beats Biden by 7, DeSantis beats Biden by 9 (more accurate than the March poll?)

New Hampshire, March 3-5

Trump 38/Biden 42, DeSantis 37/Biden 42 - Biden beats Trump by 4, Biden beats DeSantis by 5 - the only state in which Trump does better than DeSantis, but Biden wins either way

Virginia, Feb 12-21:

Trump 45/Biden 47, DeSantis 48/Trump 43 - Biden beats Trump in Youngkinia by 2, DeSantis beats Biden in Youngkinia by 5 (will Ron wear a fleece with his white boots?  Don't tell my beloved sis @Suckratesor it will really violate her fashion sense.)

California, Feb 14-20:

Trump 29/Biden 59, DeSantis 34/Biden 57 - Biden kicks both of their asses, but Trump gets his ass kicked even more (Fucking liberals!)

Arizona, Jan 31 - Feb 9:

Trump 37/Biden 39, DeSantis 36, Biden 35 - Biden beats Trump by 2, DeSantis beats Biden by 1

Nevada, Jan 30 - Feb 6:

Trump 42/Biden 40, DeSantis 42/Biden 36 -  Trump beats Biden by 2, DeSantis beats Biden by 6 (Obamacrat David Plouffe says Nevada is the state Democrats won in 2020 that he worries most about in 2024.  This is why.)

North Carolina, Jan 9-12:

Trump 45/Biden 48, DeSantis 49/Biden 44 - Biden beats Trump by 4, DeSantis beats Biden by 5

Arizona, Jan 5-8:

Trump 38/Biden 35, DeSantis 43, Biden 37 - Trump beats Biden by 3, DeSantis beats Biden by 6

And there you have it.  In blue states like California, Biden will win anyway.  In red states like Iowa, any Republican will win.  But even in a supposedly red state like Florida, Biden could possibly compete with Trump. And in every swing state - Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and even supposedly blue Virginia - DeSantis would be more likely to take out Biden than Trump.  The pattern is clear and consistent.

Obviously polls in early 2023 tell us little about November 2024.  But that's the Republican problem, I think.  It's possible that three indictments will be better than one for Trump.  But unlikely.  When does this get better for him?   

Obviously there's 10 - 20 % of voters in each of those states that are undecided.  My hunch is most of them wish Trump and Biden would both go away.  How does nominating the guy they wish would go away help with that?  Democrats, of course, have the same problem.  But there is one massive difference.  In every horse race poll, Biden does better than Harris in beating any Republican in 2024.  In most horse race polls, Trump does worse than DeSantis at beating Biden.  At least Democrats are sticking with a winner.

My economic crystal ball sucks.  But the other conventional wisdom I feel like I read everyday (here's today's version) is that we will have a shallow recession, or at least a shall corporate earnings recession, in 2023.  Followed by a "strong" recovery in 2024.  Does a "strong" recovery in 2024 help or hurt Biden, if it happens?  (At this point in 1983 the polls showed Mondale would kick Reagan's ass.)

One of the best arguments both sides have is that the other side has been overtaken by extremists, so as to be unrecognizable.  If Republicans nominate Trump, who won the 2020 election and organized the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating, it confirms their extremism.   If Democrats nominate Biden, they have nominated arguably the most recognizable Senator/Veep/POTUS in US history. 

Biden has proven he is capable of getting approval ratings over 50 %, although he is underwater now.  DeSantis, while less well known, has consistently enjoyed net favorable approval ratings.  Although that may be changing, since Trump has been doing the Democrats' job of attacking DeSantis.  Meanwhile, there was not one day of his Presidency when 50 % of Americans approved of the job Trump was doing.  How does this suggest four more years will be better?

Again, polls in early 2023 tell us little about November 2023.  But all the trends in polls do suggest that the best reason to nominate Trump is that Republicans are just not tired of winning yet.

Yup.  Those were the good old days.  

 

 

 

 

[caeron]

On 3/26/2023 at 1:47 PM, TotallyOz said:

Nikki Haley is a strong candidate if Trump does not get the ticket. She, IMHO, would be the closest to beating Biden if Trump is not the nominee. I still think Trump will be the nominee if he wants it.

 

I'm not so sure. I think recent elections and primaries have shown that the American electorate is pretty sexist.

[stevenkesslar]

My theory of the case of the 2024 election seems to be playing out according to plan.

DeSantis is in a rut. His trek to D.C. didn’t help.

At a big moment for him, the Florida governor was overshadowed by rival Donald Trump’s string of endorsements.

Before I trash the lack of pragmatism and ideological fervor among MAGA Republicans, let me trash myself first. 

I did vote for Bernie in the 2020 primary.  I did so fully aware that more pragmatic Democrats, like Jim Carville, thought nominating Bernie would be suicidal.  That said, like many Californians I waited to return my mail ballot to see how Super Tuesday turned out.  There was a tidal wave for Biden.  So my vote for Bernie assumed Biden would be the nominee.  It was basically to say, "Lean left, Joe.  Lean left."  Which he has.  The evidence suggests most young voters see it the same way.  They defended Team Biden (and abortion, and other progressive policies) in 2022 where they actually had the numbers to do so.

So I can't blame Republicans, and the MAGA sect, for wanting to lean right.  It's no time for Mickey Mouse policies in America.  And Ron knows it!

There are two things I see as fatal for Ron.

The first is Trump.  But I think he could get around that.   The fact is, as Carville argued in 2020, political gravity actually does exist.  The 2024 version of that is that running an indicted liar who most Americans see as a crook and a liar is just a bad idea.  At least if the point is winning.  Enough Republicans think that way that, if Ron ran on that, I think he could beat Trump.  He needs to be the competent conservative Governor who takes on Black Democrats, and even hurricanes, and wins.

The second thing that I think really kills DeSantis is the MAGA movement itself.  Thanks to MAGA he has to say and do lots of stuff that I think gradually turns the majority of Americans, including Floridians, off.  Like a six week abortion ban.  Like guns.  Like Gays.  Like constantly needing to own the libs.  How is that different than Trump?  As the author above argues, how does it make sense to say Trump was a great President, but we need to move on?  It might make sense if you said Trump was a great President, but he simply can't win in 2024.  But if DeSantis is making himself unelectable in 2024 while he's saying that, how is he better?  

The polls still show very consistently that in every swing state, DeSantis is a somewhat better choice than Trump if the goal is to take out Biden.  An April 11-13 poll shows DeSantis three points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania, while Biden is four points ahead of Trump.  This has been the pattern so far all year, in EVERY swing state.  But I don't think the people in the middle prefer DeSantis because he's the Guv who wants a six week abortion ban, and cuts to Social Security.

It's telling that right now the person framing the Republican debate is .............................. Joe Biden???  Honestly.  Right now Trump and DeSantis are having a food fight (literally involving pudding) over who won't cut Social Security more.  Why is the senile old POTUS who ranted at the State of the Union framing the debate?  Who's senile now?

Quote

“He [DeSantis] looks like a governor. He peaked months ago,” said one Republican ex-politician from New York who is backing Trump but likes DeSantis and was granted anonymity to speak freely about the dynamics of the race. “I don’t think the party moves forward until we get through [Trump’s] comeback chances. The road to DeSantis 2028 goes through Trump 2024.”

That's a really interesting theory.  Who knows what will happen in 2024?  So speculating about 2028 is even more ridiculous.  That said, I agree with the first part of this theory, but not the second.  I think Republicans and MAGA do not to get through Trump's "comeback" first.  Ron could stop Trump.  But he probably won't.

I don't agree that this most likely outcome sets up Ron for 2028.  First, everybody who ran against Trump in 2016 and lost - Little Marco, Lyin Ted, and of course Jeb! - was somehow less of a man afterward.  If Ron loses to Don, I don't think it helps Ron politically - in Florida, or anywhere.  Second, I think if Trump is nominated and loses it does mean Republicans move on.  But not to Ron.  Who will look kind of like the Trump mini-Me that failed.  I know it sounds crazy now, but Trump losing in 2024 would likely lead to the nomination of a pragmatic unifier like Tim Scott, or some pragmatic Republican Governor, in 2028.   

I think DeSantis is popular in Florida because he is (often) pragmatic.  And he does beat hurricanes.  But the MAGA base just won't let him run and win on that, it seems.

[Mavica]

Quote

I think DeSantis is popular in Florida because he is (often) pragmatic.  And he does beat hurricanes.  But the MAGA base just won't let him run and win on that, it seems.

I'm a Floridian, and I don't think so.

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Mavica said:

I'm a Floridian, and I don't think so.

You don't think he is (often) pragmatic?  You don't think he beats hurricanes?  Or you don't think the MAGA base will let him run and win as a conservative pragmatist?

Inquiring minds want to know.  Since David Pecker is in a bit of hot water, I figure somebody needs to do the National Enquirer's job.  😉

[Mavica]

3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

You don't think he is (often) pragmatic?  You don't think he beats hurricanes?  Or you don't think the MAGA base will let him run and win as a conservative pragmatist?

Inquiring minds want to know.  Since David Pecker is in a bit of hot water, I figure somebody needs to do the National Enquirer's job.  😉

Just over 50% of Florida voters participated in the state's 2022 Gubernatorial election - as I read the reports.  Gov. DeSantis received 59% of the approx. 50%+ participants.  Hardly an indication of popularity. 

Democrats nominated an unelectable candidate to challenge Gov. DeSantis in 2022, and, before the race began, Democrats effectively conceded to his eventual victory.  Elections are typically decided by the quality of candidates offered for consideration.  Yes, there are exceptions. 

Democrats have mistakenly given up on Florida.  Let's remember in Gov. DeSantis' first race for Governor he narrowly beat a gay, drug using Black candidate (his drug using / escort patronizing opposition wasn't fully revealed at the time).  Gov. DeSantis isn't pragmatic, he's an extremist / authoritarian and vindictive liar.  Nothing pragmatic about Gov. DeSantis' behavior.  Political pragmatism is generally thought to mean someone who is driven largely by regard for good consequences.  Gov. DeSantis' actions are the opposite; they've ndangered the state's senior's and others by distorting COVID statistics and risks.  Concentrating on evoking GOP "wokeness" on the myriad of social issues such as: LBGTQ+, abortion, black history studies, book banning, removal of popularly elected law enforcement officials, Mickey Mouse has been Gov. DeSantis' hallmark.  Gov. DeSantis isn't as popular as uninformed pundits suggest.  Re: "Hurricanes"?  That's the most ignorant remark I've read in a long time.

There are times when we don't know what we're talking about, and we should sit down and shut up.  I'll continue to stand. 😀

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, Mavica said:

There are times when we don't know what we're talking about, and we should sit down and shut up.  I'll continue to stand. 😀

Thanks for the clarification.  Now I know exactly what you mean.

As the liberal still standing, I'm not going to disagree with your criticisms of DeSantis.  Given that you live in Florida, I'm guessing you vote there.  And I'm guessing you probably did not vote for DeSantis.  That said, almost 60 % of people who voted did.  He actually got about 600,000 more votes in 2022 (4.6 million) than he did in 2018.   When, as you noted, he was expected to lose, and barely won.  I'm guessing that DID NOT happen because most Floridians like extremes - in the leaders, or hurricanes.

One of the real joys in life is watching Anna Navarro, who despises Charlie Crist, go into her rant about how happy she is that she got to vote against Crist as a Republican, and vote against Crist as an Independent, and vote against Crist as a Democrat.  So she would probably agree with you that Crist was unelectable.  That said, he actually was elected Governor in 2006.  Granted, a long time ago.  But he won two House races as well.  So that makes him seem more electable than poor Andrew Gillum.

I think one huge difference between 2022 and 2018 is in 2018 the Democrats had an anti-Trump wave pushing them along, at least in blue states.  In 2022 there was a red wave, in red states.  I agree with you that Democrats should not write off Florida in 2024.  That said, I got the fundraising appeals from Val Demings.  And I was not going to send a dime.  I sent my money, I think wisely, to Warnock and Fetterman and Barnes - two of whom won close races.  Demings was not even in the ballpark, sadly.  Even with ACT Blue, donor pockets are not bottomless.  So there's a separate and complicated debate about how much money Democrats should waste on causes that are probably lost.  (Amy McGrath in Kentucky and Jaime Harrison in South Carolina in 2020 come to mind.  Both sucked up tens of millions I think, and didn't come even remotely close to winning.)

As far as Ron's pragmatism goes, I'm basing my statements on the fact that that he won re-election by about 60 % of the vote.  And that seems to be because he is widely viewed as a competent, if conservative, Governor.  I'm not basing that on ignorance.  I'm basing it on polls.  Here's one from 2019.  Which, granted, was early days.  But I'm including it since it is the only one I could find that has an ideological breakdown.  His overall approval was 64 %.  Among conservatives 82 %, moderates 62 %, liberals 37 %.  Speaking as a liberal, those are not bad numbers for a conservative Governor.  I'd actually be curious whether that has changed as DeSantis has been using his national platform to paint himself the way you described.  Although I doubt most Florida conservatives, or even moderates - based on 2022 election results - view him as an extremist.

My comments on Ron beating hurricanes were also based on polling, not ignorance.  I don't live in Florida, so I can't ask my neighbors like you can.  I cited it early in this thread.  But this Fall 2022 poll was the most specific I could find about how Floridians feel about Ron's actual policies and performance as Governor.    What jumped out at me is he had a massive 72 % approval rating on his handling of Hurricane Ian.  A separate poll around the same time noted DeSantis had built a large lead over Crist, again citing "strong approval ratings, particularly for his response to Hurricane Ian."  The second poll also added this quote about it:

Quote

“The governor’s hurricane response received strong approval among Floridians, who most likely favor him in the upcoming gubernatorial race,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of FAU BEPI.

A Newsweek poll also noted that DeSantis got good (54 %) approval ratings from ALL Americans on Hurricane Ian.  Although Americans overall didn't rate his response any better or worse than that of the (Biden) federal government.

So my strong impression based on both polling and election results is that both moderate and conservative and even many liberal Floridians thought DeSantis was competent and pragmatic when it came to actual Governor stuff.  Like dealing with a horrific hurricane.  But check with your neighbors and let me know whether that is the most ignorant remark they've ever heard, too.  😉

The converse that is striking is that DeSantis doesn't seem to get high or even good approval ratings for any of the "extremist" or "authoritarian" behavior you went after.  Which I agree with you about.  That same USF poll that says he gets 72 % approval from Floridians for the hurricane says he gets 48 % approval for immigration and 43 % approval for climate change.  The polls I've seen suggest a solid majority of Floridians, maybe up to 60 %, do not approve of the six week abortion ban. 

So if you want a truly ignorant remark, I will give you this:  "Governor DeSantis is pushing a right wing culture war agenda hard, like six week abortion bans and going after Blacks on CRT and going after Gays on everything.  He is doing this because it is wildly popular among Floridians."  THAT would be a truly ignorant statement, based on lots of polls.  Culture War Ron is NOT wildly popular among Floridians.  Or among Americans.  As several pundits just noted, right after he signed a six week abortion ban he went to a conservative venue and said nothing about a six week abortion ban.  Is it ignorant to assume he knows the bill he signed is unpopular, both statewide and nationally?

So I think you have actually confirmed my main point above.

6 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

I think DeSantis is popular in Florida because he is (often) pragmatic.  And he does beat hurricanes.  But the MAGA base just won't let him run and win on that, it seems.

Again, the polls very strongly suggest most Floridians see DeSantis as a pragmatist who did a good job dealing with a horrible hurricane.  Even though the same voters don't particularly approve of his views on climate change.  Which many people would argue helped make the hurricane so horrific.

Why is DeSantis going out of his way to do very unpopular (and, I personally agree, extreme) things, like six week abortion bans, in the run up to a likely Presidential race announcement?  Is it too ignorant to think he feels like he has to play to the extremist, right wing MAGA base?  And that if he just runs as a competent and compassionately conservative Governor (like W. did in 2000) it ain't gonna work with the base?

Romneyite and Never Trumper Republican Stuart Stevens made a comment a few years ago that has stuck with me.  He usually is measured in interviews.  And doesn't come off as the crass political hack he probably is.  But he said something about "compassionate conservatism" in a way that really rubbed me wrong.  He said getting a Republican in a position to beat Gore in 2000 was "the whole point" of compassionate conservatism.  He didn't say, "Look, asshole.  We just fucking wanted to win.  Get it?  We're not compassionate.  And we could give a flying fuck about what being compassionate to some poor Black slob on welfare would even look like.  We just wanted to fucking win, okay?"  Again, this is not what Stevens said.  But in a candid interview, it's the way it came off to me.  That was the Rove/Stevens/compassionate conservative playbook.

The reason it's stuck is that DeSantis represents almost the opposite approach.  Even more than Trump, it seems like he want's to come off as MAGA's culture warrior and bully - to liberal me, at least.  Ignorant or not, I assume he has exceptional skills at sucking the cock of Trump.  And, now, Trump supporters.  Even Trump has said Ron sucked his cock really nicely, back in the day.  When Ron was kind of a petty and needy whore, grubbing for endorsements.  (Not to be blunt.  But that makes DeSantis a lot like Gillum, as far as whoring goes.  Speaking as a former whore myself.)  So I have to assume that is why DeSantis wants to be a bully.  It is how he thinks you win the Republican nomination in 2024. 

If you see it as authoritarianism and extremism, which you do, it only reinforces my view.

[stevenkesslar]

So this is getting weirder and weirder on the Republican side.  And probably better and better for Joe Biden and Democrats.

Did anybody notice when exactly Donald Trump become the reasonable and moderate Republican in the race?

The GOP’s Moderate Frontrunner

If you want a Republican who won’t touch entitlements or start foreign wars, Donald Trump is your man.

Quote

It’s Trump’s unique contribution to take an issue mix that could have broad appeal and make it toxic by association with himself.

That quote sums up the weirdness I'm feeling.

This article makes almost exactly the same points, arguing that Trump sounds like a Democrat on entitlements.  It adds a detailed polling history of how Trump helped change the GOP.  Since his rise in 2015, Trump has been very clear and consistent about how you don't fuck with Social Security or Medicare in his blue collar workers' party.  It's a bit harder for me to buy that Trump is the voice of moderation on abortion.  Seeing as how he rallied the Testicle Coalition around Kavanaugh, treated Dr. Ford like a dirty lying whore, and appointed the three judges that killed Roe v. Wade.  But Trump will say, persuasively enough, that just because he's not for Roe v. Wade doesn't mean he's for the opposite extreme.

Which is another broad point about Trump.  As a political gadfly, he has always been exceptional.  He has helped to reshape the Republican coalition into something at least more like a working class party.  At least with his mouth, and his bile.  His policies?  Not so much.  Tax cuts to billionaires did not help the working class. Or get factories built.  (Score so far.  Net loss of 100,000 factory jobs from Jan. 2017 to Jan. 2021 under Trump. Net gain of 800,000 factory jobs since the month Biden became POTUS.)  Trump was never more unpopular, especially among have not Republicans, than when he was trying to repeal Obamacare.  Which Trump himself, allegedly, said was "cruel."

So Trump is good with his mouth.  Had he been an LBJ or Reagan or Clinton, and been able to turn rhetoric into policies and laws that built a winning political coalition - for a while, at least - he might have actually won in 2020. Biden, by the way, has done better than average in turning his senile ideas into laws and policies.  I'm guessing by November 2024 there will be at least 1 million factory jobs created on Joe's watch.  I'm guessing he will bludgeon Trump with that fact, since Trump was a factory job loser.  

If it were just about his policies, though, I can buy that enough people would say, "Yeah, but the economy was just better under Trump."  And ignore the hog feed to billionaires.  And almost repealing Obamacare.  And injecting Clorox in your body to fight COVID.  The thing that really resonates about that quote above is that the biggest problem with Trumpism has always been Trump himself.  I'd argue that was true even in 2016, when he got 3 million fewer votes than Hillary.  It was certainly true in 2020, when he lost by 7 million votes.  Which led to his fake win, Hang Mike Pence, and a string of losses among Senate and Guv candidates who pushed his lies and authoritarian bullshit.  And it is true right now.  Almost every single poll of every single swing state so far in 2023 shows that DeSantis would do at least 3 to 5 points better than Trump against Biden.  In a bunch of swing states that means Ron is currently ahead by a few points, whereas Don is behind Joe by a few points.

Quote

Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue, Barry Goldwater famously said in his signature riff in his 1964 acceptance speech. That may be true enough, but Donald Trump, of all people, is out to demonstrate that it could be a virtue in pursuit of the Republican presidential nomination.

If the problem is Republicans need Trumpism without Trump, this shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure out.  Steve Bannon could do the job.  (And probably is, for Trump, privately.)  DeSantis needs to be the moderate and competent Governor who knows how to win.  MAGA lite, but win big!

So why is that not happening? 

It was never clear that DeSantis had great political judgment.  He barely won in 2018.  And I completely agree with @Mavica, personally, that DeSantis looks like an extremist.  And, I'd add, a bully.  Now Trump is happy to make Ron look like an extremist on Social Security and Medicare, too.  And it's working, it seems, based on the latest polls.  As that article above points out, Ted Cruz did win the very conservative vote in 2016.  So maybe Ron is going for that.  But as the article also says, that's why Cruz lost in 2016.  Because Trump won moderate and somewhat conservative Republicans.  Why is Ron letting him do it again?

I'd guess Ron might have calculated that he'd win the moderates, simply because he was not the toxic guy in the race.  And he'd win the most conservative Republicans by being Cruz Lite, rather than Toxic Mini Me.  And that may still work.  No one is voting for a long time.  Prosecutors and Democrats may still do Ron's dirty work for him.

But what's looking more and more likely is that Trump will do Biden's dirty work for him.  He'll take out the guy that polls say is more likely to actually beat Biden in Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, or Arizona, or Georgia.  Leaving Biden to run against the toxic reboot himself. 

My spat with @Mavica isn't about whether Ron seems like an extremist to us.  Of course he does.  It's about the polls, really.  I'm assuming that DeSantis is doing better than Trump against Biden in these swing states because most people have no clue he just signed a six week abortion ban.  I'm guessing mostly they've heard he's the competent guy in white boots who did a good job recovering from a hurricane and won big in Florida.  If Trump wants him to be the extreme lunatic pushing Granny over the cliff and killing pregnant Moms, instead, please.  Help Biden win.

I will say one other thing, sincerely, in DeSantis' defense.  He is not an authoritarian, at least so far.  Like every other red Governor in a blue or (arguably) purple state who did really well last year (Kemp, Sununu, DeWine, DeSantis, Phil Scott), Desantis has not embraced the myth that Trump won in 2020.  He may have a gerrymandered rubber stamp legislature.  But they were all elected.  And DeSantis did win by almost 60 % of the vote, unlike Trump in either 2016 or 2020.  So he can argue this is democracy, not dictatorship.  

The verdict (not to mention several indictments)  is still out.  If DeSantis is nominated, it will be because Republican moderates ultimately decide Trump is just too toxic.  So far, that ain't happening.  Sorry, Governor DeSinking.  😯

 

[JKane]

Republicans have truly gone from shooting themselves in the foot to cementing both feet into concrete and jumping off the pier...  But I am also hopeful that more than unforced losses their actions are finally activating new generations of voters to replace them.  The shit that's going down in most red state houses since overturning Roe, especially the latest travesty in Tennessee (the Republican leader who lead the charge is NOW OUT!) might just get enough of a wave to make a real difference despite the solid jerrymandering.  

 

But in the meantime, let's make more fun of Meatball Ron McPuddingFingers... the Republicans Great White Hope...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

I'm posting a few pieces that are an interesting point/counterpoint about the looming Trump/DeSantis catfight.  And what follows that.  As a partisan Democrat, I take them to be mostly good news for Biden.

First, a piece from Jeff Greenfield about why Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee.  Second, a piece from Steve Kornacki about why that more likely than not means Trump loses, yet again, in 2024.

The Real Reason Trump Might Win the Nomination

He’s still the president of Republican America.

Quote

Let me put another reason for his current invulnerability, one so bindingly obvious it’s almost embarrassing to offer: Much of the Republican rank-and-file regards Donald Trump not as a candidate for president, but as the president. And parties do not depose their presidents.

I buy what Greenfield is saying.  It's backed by polls.  For the majority of Republicans, they'll back Trump for the reason Democrats will back Biden.  He's the President.  And he's a winner.  If you're a typical Republican, Trump actually won twice.  Biden never won.  He's just a liar.  You can pretty much stop there, perhaps.

Greenfield adds all the caveats.   Will a second or third indictment be the charm?  Probably not.  What if more leading Republicans point out more often that nominating Trump means losing?  I just read an article about the rut DeSantis is in, in which one of his backers pointed out that in some poll of Nevada, Trump would lose to Biden by a few points.  Whereas DeSantis would beat Biden.  As I documented above, almost every poll of every swing state this year shows DeSantis would probably do a better job taking out Biden than Trump, usually by like 3 to 5 points.  This seems to have absolutely no impact on Republicans whatsoever. 

Maybe it's that simple.  Trump is President.  Why switch, any more than we would have in 2020? 

Let's add a new one.  Will the Dominion lawsuit and Tucker's firing convince more Republicans that Tucker cheated on them?  Probably not.  No offense, Tucker.  But they married Trump.  Not you.  You were just like the flower girl at the wedding, if we're being honest.  It sure was pretty to watch you blossom on Fox, though.

At least as of now, it looks like being indicted is actually helping Trump consolidate his hold over the GOP.  Which makes sense.  If you are running a grievance campaign, being indicted by a Black New York City liberal in a baseless political witch hunt is a very nice political cross to bear.  How many times does Don, Jr. have to point out that at some point his Daddy deserves a break?  You know those evangelicals.  They're all about more empathy, and less abortion.  This is a good marriage for them.

And yet ..................

I love the ambiguity of that piece.  Kornacki is right.  A Biden/Trump rematch will be wildly unpopular.  A lot of people will say it is de-energizing.  Especially on the Democratic side.  At least Trump fires up his base.  Which is the main reason Republicans like Rich Mitch and Tucker Carlson tolerate a guy they hate passionately.   A lot of Independents will react in horror, since the polls already make it clear they want neither. 

Democrats should be scared shitless.  If you stop watching Steve's number crunching about halfway through, we have a POTUS who is pretty deep underwater.  Here's one poll Steve didn't mention:  we also have an economy that most voters say is on the wrong track.

That said, when pressed by Morning Joe - who relentlessly points out every chance he gets that Trump led Republicans to defeat in 2018, and 2020, and 2022, after losing the popular vote and barely winning in 2016 - Kornacki goes through the reasons why Biden is probably under rated in the polls.  

Trump is clearly NOT like the others in those favorability polls.  48 % of Americans feel badly about Joe Biden.  46 % feel badly about Democrats.  43 % feel badly about Republicans.  So far, there's only large minorities that feel badly about the sitting POTUS, or either US political party.  Meanwhile, 53 % feel badly about Trump.  He's the odd man out.  A majority of Americans actually don't like the guy.  And simply do not want him to be President.  How do you overcome that?

The same is true if you look at the favorables.  At 38 %, Biden is actually viewed more favorably than Democrats (36 %), Republicans (33 %), or Trump (34 %).  He'll be the Democratic nominee because people will do what he keeps asking them to do:  judge me against the alternatives, not The Almighty.  (Or Kamala.  But Biden wins that race, too.)  The fact that maybe 38 % of Americans actually feel good about Biden matches with his low baseline in these horse race polls.  Once you get higher into the 40's, and then get past 50, to one degree or another people are probably voting for Biden as the lesser of evils.  But, unlike Trump, he doesn't have a majority who actually kind of see him as evil.

We've tested the reliability of these numbers in both the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections.  And the outcomes are pretty much what a Kornacki or Morning Joe number geek  would expect.

The thing that was interesting about the 2016 horse race polls, as RCP showed them every day, is that out of roughly 500 polling days between June 2015 and Election Day 2016, Trump was ahead of Clinton in the polls for maybe one week's worth of days.  I kept wondering:  how likely is it he'll be ahead of Hillary on the one day that really matters, Nov. 8, 2016?  Call me dumb.  Because having lived through Bush/Gore, I should have remembered that you don't have to be ahead in the polls, or even in the actual votes, to win.  Trump himself allegedly said that if you'd held the same election a dozen or so times on the same day in 2016, he would have lost most of them.  It was kind of a statistical fluke.  There was divine intervention, of course.  Thanks to The Second Coming Of Comey.

To be very specific, Trump won with 46.1 % of the vote in 2016.  Which is pretty close to what you'd expect is the best he could do.  Since about 53 % of Americans really don't like him.  And don't want him to be POTUS.  That number seems to be incredibly sticky.  We have almost a decade of RCP polling on Trump's favorability.  There's actually NEVER been a day that fewer than 50 % of Americans viewed President Trump unfavorably. Not one day.  There were a few days in late 2016, after he won but before he was inaugurated, when feelings for Trump were the least bad they've ever been.  Call it hope.  There were a few days in early 2022 when his horrific unfavorable ratings after Jan. 6th slid back down to about 50 %.  Call it boredom.  But whenever Trump is in the news - Mar A Lago, indictment, running for POTUS again - his unfavorables always spike.  It is like political gravity.  In 2020, he got 46.8 % of the vote.  53 % of people who vote just don't want him to be President.  And the fact that older voters who are dying like him the most, and new young voters like him the least, won't help him much in 2024.

Biden's numbers in 2020 also make sense.  He won with 51.3 % of the vote.  So he can clearly get a majority of voters on his side on the day that it really matters.  (Arguably, he did it twice as Veep, too.)  And that matches with Kornacki's number, that about 48 % of Americans feel badly about Biden.  That leaves 52 % for Biden to get.  And, in 2020, he got most of them.  Biden's unfavorable ratings are of course upside down now, with 54 % of Americans not approving of the job he is doing.  But 54 % of Americans did approve of what he was doing for some of his Presidency.  And much of his Vice Presidency.  There's no evidence that a majority of Americans are hard set against Biden - every day, every year.  Like they are against Trump -every day, every year.

My guess is that indictment hurts Trump's favorables.  It is scary that there is an obvious groundswell for Trump right now.  And since most people have come to see polls as bullshit, knowing that DeSantis would actually do better than Trump in Nevada isn't much consolation.  But if and when indictments come down for how Trump tried to steal an election in Georgia, or stop a peaceful transfer of power by tossing rioters at cops at The Capitol, there's no reason to think the 53 % of Americans who feel very badly about Trump, and have for a decade, will change their mind.

What is scarier to me is this idea:  To get to something like 51 %, Biden has a long way to crawl back.  He needs to get almost everyone who doesn't feel badly about him to actually vote for him.  He's been there and done that before.  But can he do it again?  One way of looking at it is that when Biden is running against Barack Obama, or even Michael Dukakis, maybe he doesn't look so good.  When he is running against Donald Trump, he really is an attractive enough lesser of evils. At least in 2020 and 2022.  Third time's the charm?

If there is a third party candidate, it's also not clear that either Trump or Biden need anything like 50 % of the vote to actually win.  My guess is a third party helps Trump, by potentially lowering the winning percentage to something like 47 %.  But if Trump himself is the third party candidate, that's a whole different thing.

My mind was settled on this pretty much the day Biden won in 2020.  Allan Lichtman is my guy.  So he argues that by virtue of Biden being the incumbent, and avoiding a party food fight, Democrats already have an advantage in 2024. 

So then it pretty much comes down to the economy, stupid.  Why would a small chunk of the 53 % of Americans who kind of detest him vote for Trump, anyway?  A really bad recession and stock market crash would probably do it.  Or maybe a humiliating loss in Ukraine?  I definitely agree with Lichtman that Americans will vote in 2024, like they do in every Presidential election, on things that really matter.  If the economy and stock market are in recovery by November 2024, as I think most economic talking heads project, it will be much easier for Biden to persuade the 53 % of Americans who don't like Trump to vote for him instead.  Probably even moreso if Trump is the most impeached and indicted man in America, ever!

Jim Clyburn, co-chair of Biden 2024, was on Morning Joe this morning.  He has a much simpler explanation than mine.  He says politicians win when voters feel them, as opposed to seeing them or hearing them.  Biden is under rated because polls can't measure that Biden comes across as a normal, boring guy who is like you and me.

Maybe, maybe not.  I'll go with Kornacki.  What we do know is that a slight majority of Americans DO NOT detest Biden, the way they seem to detest Trump.  That is sufficient to explain to me why Trump will kick Ron's ass.  And then Joe and Kamala will kick Trump's ass, again.

 

 

 

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

[JKane]