Isn't it better if real Republicans nominate Trump, since DeSantis is a pussy and a traitor, anyway?

[stevenkesslar]

 

Trump’s first ’24 rally has a familiar feel: Anger and attacks on his tormentors

Quote

Indeed, rallygoers here in Waco expressed disappointment that DeSantis had not gone further in his defense of Trump ...

Louise Negry from Lometa, Tex., said DeSantis “might be a traitor.”

Actually, Ron DeSantis is not a traitor, IMHO.   He is a conservative Republican with a pretty good approval rating as Governor of Florida.  Which means even a lot of Democrats think he is doing a competent job.  

That said, it is obvious what you do when you get a seemingly competent and popular Republican Governor.  You go for the jugular.  You break his neck.  You bleed him out, hopefully slowly and painfully.  It's actually quite fun, if you are Donald Trump and his followers. 

Isn't this simply common sense?  Isn't this obviously what leadership is about?  Isn't this what America needs more of?  Not the pussies and traitors!

Quote

Trump framed the investigations into him and the “weaponization of our justice system” as “the central issue of our time.” And he claimed the “biggest threat” to the U.S. isn’t China or Russia but “high level politicians that work in the U.S. government like McConnell, Pelosi, Schumer and Biden.”

Pussies and traitors!  Pussies and traitors!  Pussies and traitors!  This is just common sense.  Isn't the problem obvious?  (And don't get me started on The Gays making pussies out of our Woke Military!  Ugh!)

Then again, here's a thought.  Why not sit back and enjoy the Republican Freak Show?  When has the majority of America said, "Hey, we want this Freak Show!  This is what we want!  We want more freaks!"

Yes, 3 million fewer Americans voted for Trump than Clinton in 2016.  And he won anyway because we have an electoral college that was designed to help Whites owns Blacks.  Alan Lichtman told us in September 2016, once again accurately, that was because people were going to give a thumbs down to the party in power. Not because of Donald Trump.  He actually said Hillary might win, even though history was against her, simply because Donald Trump is such a freak.

Quote

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election I’ve had to assess since 1984. We’ve never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, which suggests this election could go either way.

The majority of America did not want Freak Show in 2018.  The majority of America did not want Freak Show in 2020.  The majority of America did not want Freak Show on Jan. 6. 2021.  The majority of America did not want Freak Show in 2022.  They may have been okay with RINOs like Kevin McCarthy.  Or RINOs like Chris Sununu.  Or RINOs like Mike DeWine - who could not get 50 % of the vote in an Ohio Republican primary, even though he won 62 % of the vote in the Ohio general election.  It was very clear.  America wanted both conservatives and liberals in 2022.  But not Freak Show and liars.

Trump’s beer track advantage over Ron DeSantis

The divide quickly defining the GOP primary.

Quote

Trump has a 17-point lead among Republicans without a college degree (up from a 10-point lead in February). And while DeSantis still leads among voters with a four-year degree, 40 percent to 28 percent, Trump has significantly cut into what was a 29-point deficit with those voters in the past month.

Even were he not able to make inroads on DeSantis’ turf, Trump has an inherent advantage. A decades-long realignment has pushed college-educated voters toward Democrats — an already-existing trend that Trump accelerated — making the GOP’s “beer track” the larger cohort among Republican primary voters. 

 

Quote

What might be even better news for Trump is that the beer track vote is growing as a share of the GOP electorate. While college graduates made up a majority of Republican caucus-goers and primary voters in recent cycles, larger political realignments will likely mean that in most states, GOP voters without college degrees will outnumber those who have graduated from college next year.

In other words, the minority of mostly White Americans who identify as Republican and conservative and don't have college degrees are most passionate about Trump.  Meanwhile, the Independents and moderate Republicans who are more likely to vote Democratic - in 2018, or 2020, or 2022, or all three - are the ones who have the most distaste for The Freak Show.

So, speaking as a partisan Democrat, why not let Trump bleed DeSantis out, and give us more than a full year of Freak Show?  What's the downside?  That he'll do an even better job of alienating Independents and moderates than he did in 2018, or 2020, or 2022 with his lies and Freak Show?

To rebut my own argument, the obvious downside is that Trump could win again, like he did in 2016.  But I'll trump you with Lichtman on that argument.  His point would be that Biden will win or lose based on a thoughtful judgment of how he did for four years.  If there is a bad recession and a humiliating defeat for the US in Ukraine, Biden will be toast.  If there is a strong recovery and Putin negotiates a peace deal that leaves a stronger NATO and most of Ukraine intact, Biden will likely win.  What Trump gives us is another Freak Show, even more distasteful than the first one.  Which Americans already voted thumbs down on once, in 2020, by about 7 million votes.  No bet is safe.  But Trump is probably less likely to beat Biden than just about any other Republican.

Why not have a bloodthirsty Freak Show, which is what Donald Trump wants?  What could possibly go wrong?  🤫

[Suckrates]

DeSantis and his white rubber go-go boots can NEVER succeed on a National stage.   He doesnt have the appeal, eventhough he is trying to emulate Trump on steroids with his extremist stunts. .  Hes a wooden, racist, homophobic gnome, but really isnt MAGA enough for the Maga's in terms of anti-Democracy.   DeSantis has never called for violence against a country  claiming it  denies its citizens so must be taken back.    For him to succeed, he must ramp up the personal "grievance" of it all and really make his base feel like Shit. ...... 

[stevenkesslar]

5 hours ago, Suckrates said:

DeSantis has never called for violence against a country  claiming it  denies its citizens so must be taken back. 

Precisely.  Nor has DeSantis flat out said the 2020 election was stolen.  He was NOT one of the election deniers who went down in flames in 2022.  Arguably, this is what makes him electable nationally.  At least that's what many college-educated Republicans think.  But then, what do they know?  🤫

DeSantis currently has a +6 national favorable rating (42/36),  compared to net unfavorable for both Trump (-12, at 54/42 unfavorable)  and Biden {-10, at 43/53 disapproval).  Of course, part of that is because DeSantis is less well known.  But those who have heard about him tend to think about him favorably, so far. 

It's no surprise that if DeSantis does manage to win the 2024 nomination, Team Biden will do everything it can to raise his unfavorable ratings.  What's more surprising is that many of those smart college-educated Republicans believe if DeSantis wins the GOP nomination Joe Biden's best hatchet man will be ..................... Donald Trump!  If he can't have it, no one can.  Trump proved he was that mean-spirited in 2021, both with fomenting riots and poisoning a Georgia runoff.  He has already vowed retribution in 2024.  Stay tuned! 

But don't let the Deep State get ya!  Turns out that fucking Deep State is worse than the fungi and cannibals in The Last Of Us!  Haven't we had enough already?

There's not a lot of sources of data on why DeSantis is popular in Florida.  But what is available suggests that it's mostly because he is seen as a competent Governor by people in his state.  This October 2022 survey is probably the best source for understanding his current approval in Florida.   A whopping 72 % approve of how he handled Hurricane Ian.  I know you and I always go for the glam fashion icons,  Sis Suckrates.  But it turns out those cheap white boots did the trick.  57 % approve of how he has handled jobs and the economy in Florida.  (Biden's unemployment rate, at 3.6 %, is about the lowest nationally in 50 years.  In Florida unemployment is at 2.6 %.  What's not to like?)

If Trump does not manage to bleed DeSantis out, like he did Poor Jeb! and Little Marco, my partisan question as a Democrat is which Ron will we get?   Will he be the sunny Reagan optimist, pushing jobs and a strong economy?  Or the bully full of bile, hectoring at The Gays and The Blacks, and all the other fungi-like socialists clinging to life in Florida, despite Ron's culture war.  (Has anyone else noticed Ron and Pedro Pascal both look like meatballs?  Pedro sports a gun rather than white boots, of course.)

The verdict is out.  That same poll I cited above offers no evidence that Ron's culture war stuff is popular outside of Republican primary voters.  While he got 57 % approval on jobs and the economy among Florida voters, he got 50 % on "unifying Floridians," 48 % on immigration, and 43 % on climate change.  It's not clear that branding himself as Culture Warrior In Chief will help him win a general election, if he is nominated.   My main point in this post is that in order to beat Trump our Top Guv will have to embrace divisiveness and mountains of dirt.  It may not help him beat Biden, even if he beats Trump.

Good news is that The Last Of Us smashed the ratings.  And a sequel is coming.  So America is clearly in the mood for more dour and dire Freak Show.  And boy are those moderate college-educated White Republicans gonna get it.

 

 

[Suckrates]

18 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Precisely.  Nor has DeSantis flat out said the 2020 election was stolen.  He was NOT one of the election deniers who went down in flames in 2022.  Arguably, this is what makes him electable nationally.  At least that's what many college-educated Republicans think.  But then, what do they know?  🤫

DeSantis currently has a +6 national favorable rating (42/36),  compared to net unfavorable for both Trump (-12, at 54/42 unfavorable)  and Biden {-10, at 43/53 disapproval).  Of course, part of that is because DeSantis is less well known.  But those who have heard about him tend to think about him favorably, so far. 

It's no surprise that if DeSantis does manage to win the 2024 nomination, Team Biden will do everything it can to raise his unfavorable ratings.  What's more surprising is that many of those smart college-educated Republicans believe if DeSantis wins the GOP nomination Joe Biden's best hatchet man will be ..................... Donald Trump!  If he can't have it, no one can.  Trump proved he was that mean-spirited in 2021, both with fomenting riots and poisoning a Georgia runoff.  He has already vowed retribution in 2024.  Stay tuned! 

But don't let the Deep State get ya!  Turns out that fucking Deep State is worse than the fungi and cannibals in The Last Of Us!  Haven't we had enough already?

There's not a lot of sources of data on why DeSantis is popular in Florida.  But what is available suggests that it's mostly because he is seen as a competent Governor by people in his state.  This October 2022 survey is probably the best source for understanding his current approval in Florida.   A whopping 72 % approve of how he handled Hurricane Ian.  I know you and I always go for the glam fashion icons,  Sis Suckrates.  But it turns out those cheap white boots did the trick.  57 % approve of how he has handled jobs and the economy in Florida.  (Biden's unemployment rate, at 3.6 %, is about the lowest nationally in 50 years.  In Florida unemployment is at 2.6 %.  What's not to like?)

If Trump does not manage to bleed DeSantis out, like he did Poor Jeb! and Little Marco, my partisan question as a Democrat is which Ron will we get?   Will he be the sunny Reagan optimist, pushing jobs and a strong economy?  Or the bully full of bile, hectoring at The Gays and The Blacks, and all the other fungi-like socialists clinging to life in Florida, despite Ron's culture war.  (Has anyone else noticed Ron and Pedro Pascal both look like meatballs?  Pedro sports a gun rather than white boots, of course.)

The verdict is out.  That same poll I cited above offers no evidence that Ron's culture war stuff is popular outside of Republican primary voters.  While he got 57 % approval on jobs and the economy among Florida voters, he got 50 % on "unifying Floridians," 48 % on immigration, and 43 % on climate change.  It's not clear that branding himself as Culture Warrior In Chief will help him win a general election, if he is nominated.   My main point in this post is that in order to beat Trump our Top Guv will have to embrace divisiveness and mountains of dirt.  It may not help him beat Biden, even if he beats Trump.

Good news is that The Last Of Us smashed the ratings.  And a sequel is coming.  So America is clearly in the mood for more dour and dire Freak Show.  And boy are those moderate college-educated White Republicans gonna get it.

 

 

The fact that DeSantis isnt a flat out ANARCHIST doesnt make him potentially electable IMO......  He has shown himself NOT to be a man of ALL people, and those of us being overlooked or attacked by his legislation just DONT like it.   Not at all......   He has the potential to be more dangerous than Trump, and have a longer life span.   And White high go-go boots only look good with mini-skirts, not wit Dad-jeans.... The man has no style ! 

[TotallyOz]

Nikki Haley is a strong candidate if Trump does not get the ticket. She, IMHO, would be the closest to beating Biden if Trump is not the nominee. I still think Trump will be the nominee if he wants it.

[Suckrates]

36 minutes ago, TotallyOz said:

Nikki Haley is a strong candidate if Trump does not get the ticket. She, IMHO, would be the closest to beating Biden if Trump is not the nominee. I still think Trump will be the nominee if he wants it.

Knowing the GOP, they will probably put up Majorie Taylor Greene if it aint Trump ?    If they are so adamant about hanging onto that MAGA base, they'll give them the top of the shit pile......MTG.....    The GOP shows no desire of expanding their base.   They seem happy with the extremists, eventhough its proving to be a losing strategy for them.   But if its Marjorie, and she LOSES, at least you know you'll get one Helluva Insurrection that will put Trumps 2020 one to shame.   

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, TotallyOz said:

Nikki Haley is a strong candidate if Trump does not get the ticket. She, IMHO, would be the closest to beating Biden if Trump is not the nominee. I still think Trump will be the nominee if he wants it.

There is interesting polling data in this article taken from county-level GOP chairs.  It sounds in the ballpark of what I would expect.

Other than poor Chris Christie, the candidate that county chairs are most likely to say they DO NOT want is Donald Trump.  39 % say they don't want Trump.  That said, 43 % of local chairs say they would consider Trump.  43 % is enough to win Trump the nomination in winner take all Republican primaries, just like in 2016. 

Trump's game is to make his base feel like the humans in The Last Of Us.  Everybody not with us is like fungi out to get us.  America is not a shining city on a hill.  It is infected.  It needs cleansing and retribution for all the fuckers who fucked us up.  (Again, don't get me started on The Gays.)

DeSantis is the candidate that the most county chairs would consider (73 %).  In fact, he is the ONLY Republican that way more than half of Republican county chairs would consider.  So the question is whether he can turn that into a 50 % or so majority in a Republican primary.  And how much of the "you're infected, asshole" rhetoric and tone he has to deploy to do so.  But I agree with Sis @Suckrates.  Ron kind of makes me feel like The Gays are part of the infection that needs to be cleansed.  

Nikki Haley comes in third after DeSantis and Trump, at 36 %, as someone local GOP chairs would consider.  26 % say they would not consider her.  I think her problem is that the 43 % that are for Trump include a lot of people who are rabidly for Trump.  I'm not sure how many people are rabidly for Nikki Haley.

I've got a hard on for Tim Scott.  I think he is for sure the most interesting Republican (other than Don and Ron) to watch.  And it shows up in the polling.  He's number four on the list of candidates local chairs would consider, at 26 %.  So he has the same problem as Haley.  Like her, he polls in a low single digit.  Because almost nobody is rabidly for him.  What's more interesting to me is that, other than Top Guv Ron, Scott is the candidate that is likely most unifying.  Only 16 % of Republican chairs say they would NOT consider Scott in 2024, as opposed to 9 % for DeSantis and 39 % for Trump.

That said, I had a hard on for John Kasich in 2016, and look where that got him.  I recall a dinner in Summer 2016 with two Republican friends where we all agreed that things would be so much better if the GOP had nominated Kasich.  The two Republicans presumed that Kasich could beat Hillary.  Whereas it looked then like Trump would be a disaster in Fall 2016.  My presumption as a Democrat was that either Kasich or Clinton would have made decent Presidents, unlike Trump.  It's all been more and more Freak Show since then.  And so far the MAGA message, such as it is, kind of just keeps getting worse.

So with Trump, we have the narrative that McConnell and Biden are the uniparty hacks destroying America.  With Trump the only leader that can win retribution for real Americans.  Can't blame the MAGA folks for not getting tired of winning, right?  🤫

And here's the Tim Scott narrative:

Quote

“I see 330 million Americans getting back to celebrating our shared blessings again, tolerating our differences again, and having each other’s backs again,” Scott said in a speech to about 100 students and curious Republicans at Drake University in Des Moines. “We need new leaders who will lift us up, not tear us down.”

I think that does set Scott apart from any other Republican candidate, including Haley.  If there is a sunny Reaganite Main Street capitalist running, Tim Scott is it.  Right now, that gets you about 1 % of the vote in a Republican primary.  Ouch! 

There's at least two theories I have about Scott.  One is that he is running for Veep.  The Divine Miss Graham, who is back to whoring for Trump, is pushing the idea of Trump/Scott.  I hope Miss Graham is once again tone deaf.  It would be the end of Tim Scott as a viable national candidate.  I suspect he knows that.  His message pretty much screams, "I'm not Trump.  I'm not running to tell you that America is fucked up."

My other theory, which I hope is true, is that Scott is actually running for President in 2028.  Obama's guru David Plouffe argued back around 2018 that it would take four election cycles, not four years, to defeat Trumpism.  I took that to mean 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024.  Let's throw in 2026 just to be safe.  That would suggest that if Trump leads Republicans to defeat yet again, by 2028 Republicans might actually be ready for something different.

Another Obama guru, David Axelrod, argued something else that makes sense in this context.  He said he felt dumb for missing it in 2016.  He said, in retrospect, Americans often elect a President that is the opposite of what they've currently got.  He said he knew that, and used it, in 2008 to make Obama look like the opposite of W.  But he was too close to it to see that, in 2016, Trump was the opposite of Obama. 

The question is whether Republican primary voters in 2028 will want the opposite of Donald Trump.  I think Tim Scott is gambling that they will.  If so, I hope he is right.

 

[stevenkesslar]

41 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

Knowing the GOP, they will probably put up Majorie Taylor Greene if it aint Trump ? 

From your lips to God's ears, Sis.  😉

Trump pushes Marjorie Taylor Greene to run for U.S. Senate

Can somebody please wake me when the MAGA Republicans finally get tired of winning with all these MAGA candidates they run?

 

[KYTOP]

I have for years followed the polling averages on RealClearPolitics. It seemed Desantis was moving closer to Trump until this NY Grand Jury stuff made the news. Trump seems to be moving farther ahead since and it seems to have helped him.

[JKane]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Suckrates]

DeSantis is a Clown and Stunt Queen.   They may love his ass in Florida, but he is not favored nationally.   He has the warmth of a soggy breadstick, and the majority of Americans can see thru "performative arts"....and really dont like him.  And when he doesnt get the nomination, he then should be voted out of his Governors seat.   He can go be a host on Fox....   

[njf]

Nominating Trump may be a good thing for Democrats in the short term, it is a bad thing for the country, and a bad thing for the Democrats in the long term. With a rapidly changing world, we need a lot of serious policy debates.  The absence of a functional opposition to Democrats makes them lazy and unrestrained.

[Mavica]

10 hours ago, Suckrates said:

DeSantis is a Clown and Stunt Queen.   They may love his ass in Florida, but he is not favored nationally.   ... the majority of Americans can see thru "performative arts"....and really dont like him.  

The same was said about Donald J. Trump.  His opponents underestimated the support he would garner, as they do today.  The same may be said about Ron DeSantis (in the future).

[Suckrates]

56 minutes ago, Mavica said:

The same was said about Donald J. Trump.  His opponents underestimated the support he would garner, as they do today.  The same may be said about Ron DeSantis (in the future).

Keep in mind he LOST the popular vote, and only won because of the electoral college......Trumps die hard supporters are the smaller % of MAGA's that will NEVER switch to DeSantis, so he doesnt have that vote.  He wont get the Dems, so he has to count on the remainder of Repubs and independents.   A tall mountain to climb for him.  Plus he is a "sour puss".   At least Trump has some comic ability,  and says such stupid shit, and acts like that crazy old grandpa that people find his stupidity and silly dancing entertaining.  DeSanty lacks that.  They should nominate Santos,   at least he can "morp" into anything for anyone....🤣

DeSantys problem is that he is trying to be Trump 2.0, but people just want The Original.   Like one of his supporters said in Waco this past weekend,  "you cant keep a good man down"....   Thats how they SEE trump.    DeSanty, not so much......

[stevenkesslar]

On 3/27/2023 at 6:48 PM, KYTOP said:

I have for years followed the polling averages on RealClearPolitics. It seemed Desantis was moving closer to Trump until this NY Grand Jury stuff made the news. Trump seems to be moving farther ahead since and it seems to have helped him.

Well, we'll now get a good test of this theory.  I know there's also a thread on the indictment itself.  But I'm posting this here to focus more on the impact on the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination.

2024 Republican Presidential Nomination

I'm not sure I agree with the idea that Trump has moved further ahead.  As that chart shows, DeSantis got a big boost after the midterms, when he looked electable and Team MAGA didn't.  That hasn't changed.  DeSantis had a run of momentum which has now stalled.  But he still has about one third of the primary vote leaning to him.  Whereas Trump has less than half.  And it's April 2023.  It hasn't even started yet.  The media has been beating Trump's recent uptick in a few polls to death.  But some part of that may simply be that he is back in the news again, period.

I think Jonathon Lemire summed it up nicely in an article on the politics of the impeachment today:

Quote

White House aides continue to believe that Trump is their most likely November 2024 matchup, assuming Biden follows through on his expected re-election bid. They also believe he would be the easiest Republican to beat. But most of all, the aides believe that Trump has already permanently lost a huge swatch of the independent and swing voters needed to win a general election. Trump may not grow tired of the spotlight. But a good chunk of voters have grown tired of him being in it.

There's plenty of other data to back up Lemire's opinion.  I posted this recent Politico article that shows that grassroots county GOP chairs vastly prefer DeSantis.  73 % of local chairs will consider DeSantis, which is the only candidate way more than half are interested in.  Only 9 % won't consider DeSantis.  With Trump, 43 % of local chairs say they would consider him. But 39 % don't want him to be the 2024 nominee.  Trump doesn't need half the primary vote to win in 2024.  He didn't need it in 2016.  But it is not clear he can get anywhere close to half the GOP primary vote.  As always, he knows his one path to victory is to inflame, divide, and conquer.  

Politico reports conservative House members, including Freedom Caucus members, are torn down the middle as well.  Which makes sense, since the people who vote for them are torn down the middle, also.  Being this divided is not a good place to be - for the Freedom Caucus, for Trump, or for Republicans who actually care about winning.

If you want a left-of-center thoughtful political hack with a bipartisan temperament, there's no better than David Axelrod.  He put his finger on the problem for Democrats in 2022.  He worried that efforts to promote inflammatory Republican election deniers at the margin in GOP primaries could backfire on Democrats.  Since in a red wave they all could win.  We now know they all lost.  And while Democrats may have helped nominate a few MAGA diehards at the margin, it was clear in 2022 that there was a red MAGA election denying wave in Republican primaries all over the US, from sea to shining (and lying) Lake.

My guess is that this will whip a minority of conservatives - mostly White and rural, without college degrees - into a MAGA Or Bust frenzy.  Which is of course what Trump wants.  And if it's not a one on one with DeSantis, it may be enough for Trump to eke it out.

I'm always with Alan Lichtman and his Keys To The Presidency:  what will matter most in 2024 is whether we are in a recession, or a recovery.  If the economy sucks, whoever Republicans nominate could win.  But I think Lemire is right.  Trump continuously disqualifies himself because of his legal problems, among other things.  It is not what Republicans do when they are tired of winning.  It is what they do when they want to lose.  I think that is why Republican county chairs and Freedom Caucus types who comes from very conservative districts are worried.

Oh.  And then there is this:

57 percent say any criminal charges should disqualify Trump from reelection bid: poll

[unicorn]

The election isn't determined by the Democrats or Republicans. Independents are those who pick the POTUS. Most independents are rightfully afraid of what Trump would do in a 2nd term, and they aren't blind to his shocking behavior (actions and words). Biden is a weak candidate, but I think most independents are probably revolted by Trump and DeSantis. Best scenario for the Democrats: Trump runs as an independent. It would be like when Nader handed the Presidency to Bush due to his overinflated ego. 

[TotallyOz]

Trump not getting the nomination and then running as an independent would be fabulous!

We do need a third party that can pull in votes and numbers.

[Mavica]

In the USA, I doubt voters claiming to be independent are actually that.  Rather, they purport to be independent when they're in fact partisans.  Independents don't vote in primaries.

[unicorn]

4 hours ago, Mavica said:

In the USA, I doubt voters claiming to be independent are actually that.  Rather, they purport to be independent when they're in fact partisans.  Independents don't vote in primaries.

As so often happens, you have no idea what you're talking about. Voters don't have to "claim" anything. A person's party preference or lack of affiliation is simply a matter of public record. Since independents don't choose parties' candidates in primaries, why would anyone claim to be independent if he wasn't?

[forky123]

37 minutes ago, unicorn said:

Since independents don't choose parties' candidates in primaries, why would anyone claim to be independent if he wasn't?

Many people say they are independent when they aren't because they are too embarrassed to admit which party or person they vote for. 

[stevenkesslar]

On 3/27/2023 at 6:48 PM, KYTOP said:

I have for years followed the polling averages on RealClearPolitics. It seemed Desantis was moving closer to Trump until this NY Grand Jury stuff made the news. Trump seems to be moving farther ahead since and it seems to have helped him.

Well it's now clear you called that one right.

Post-indictment poll: Trump surges to largest-ever lead over DeSantis

But the latest Yahoo News/YouGov survey also shows that most Americans don't think Trump should be allowed to serve as president again if convicted.

As most articles are noting, this is a two part equation.  And, unfortunately for Trump and Republicans, survey says it's more about subtraction than addition.   As the me-me-melodrama fires up the base and adds to Trump support among the hard core MAGA types, it subtracts support from Independents and leaners who Trump will need to win.  Just like he did in 2016, when he still lost by three million votes.

The numbers among Independents actually don't sound so bad on this one.  Slightly more Independents approve of the indictment than disapprove. But neither is anywhere near a majority.  What I factor in is that this particular indictment is about an old hush money payment that we've all known about for years, anyway.  Independents are not so lenient when it comes to the election lies and Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating (brought to you by Tucker!!!!!)  What I buy that lots of pragmatic Republican politicos are saying is that every single time Tucker!!!!! has to explain publicly on Fox (but not privately in texts) how patriotic and glorious all these scams and lies and riots are, Trump is losing. 

A trifecta of indictments would be a big loser, I suspect.  Although, oddly, it may get Trump the Republican nomination.  The thing that is hard to calculate is what Independents think about a party that would like somebody like Trump more because of this crap.

10 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

Trump not getting the nomination and then running as an independent would be fabulous!

Interesting factoid in that poll above.  49 % of people say "the only thing Donald Trump cares about is himself."  Who knew?  Which is actually down from 53 % in December.  Either way, that 49 to 53 % of the US is unlikely to vote for Trump, I'd guess.  So to win he needs less than a majority.  (He got 46 % in 2016, compared to 48 % for Clinton.)

So, yeah, it seems likely that if he ran as an Independent, Trump would take votes away from DeSantis, not Biden.  Teddy Roosevelt comes to mind.

That said, I am an Alan Lichtman devotee, since he has been right in guessing who will win the Presidency every time since 1984.  And one of his 13 keys is that when a third party candidate gets more than 5 %, it likely hurts the incumbent. 

As a general rule, it makes sense.  The system was developed by Lichtman and a Russian expert at predicting actual earthquakes.  It uses objective measures (GDP, war or peace) based on the assumption that the party in power gets a thumbs up or down based on actual performance - not dumb shit.  So the presence of a popular third party candidate usually suggests deep rumblings in the body politic, Lichtman says.  John Anderson getting 7 % in 1980 - along with Kennedy's challenge to Carter and the inflationary economy, stupid - all turned out to be reliable warnings of an earthquake coming.  Then again, Perot beat the 5 % threshold in 1996, but Clinton still won.  But no Democrat challenged Clinton, and he had the economy and peace on his side.

So it's not completely clear that Trump losing the nomination and running on the "ME, ME, MAGA" ticket couldn't hurt Biden.  For sure it would be a reliable sign of deep rumblings in the body politic.  But then, we know that already.  It makes no sense that many Republicans are craving to nominate a guy half of America thinks is only into himself.  And who plays victim when he fucks, cheats, lies, steals, grabs pussy - and, oh yeah, gets indicted.  🤫

[Mavica]

8 hours ago, forky123 said:

Many people say they are independent when they aren't because they are too embarrassed to admit which party or person they vote for. 

Partially true.  For various reasons, some voters don't want their party preference known other than to themselves - so they don't vote in a primary election.  One has to declare a party preference when voting in a primary ... in all of the states I've resided in.  In a primary, you receive only the ballot for the party you've declared - Republican or Democratic. That's how the "public" knows the affiliation your political preference.  In cities / towns with strong political organizations, there are poll watchers who record for their records - the records of the party which has sent them to watch - what preference you call-out to the local election judges.  In a general election everyone gets the same ballot and ones party preference is irrelevant to the official voting process.

[Pete1111]

 

Enough of the pvssies and weak little b!tches.  Bring back the real GOP men. 

 

 

 

Just make sure they haven't fiddled with boys.

[Suckrates]

10 minutes ago, Pete1111 said:

 

Enough of the pvssies and weak little b!tches.  Bring back the real GOP men. 

 

 

 

Just make sure they haven't fiddled with boys.

Eric Trump  "Geez, at some point, doesnt the guy DESERVE a break? "...      NO !    A break ?     WHY Eric ?   In this country, you break the law, you GO TO JAIL, you entitled WHITE moron !.   

[Pete1111]

51 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

Eric Trump  "Geez, at some point, doesnt the guy DESERVE a break? "...      NO !    A break ?     WHY Eric ?   In this country, you break the law, you GO TO JAIL, you entitled WHITE moron !.   

Could it be Trump's mother's fault?   I wonder if she riled him, that he'll need to try hard, to compensate for that little toadstool winkie of his.

But with MAGA Repubs, it's almost too easy for him.