Thaksin Shinawatra predicts election win for Pheu Thai party

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From Nikkei

TOKYO -- Thaksin Shinawatra, the Thai prime minister ousted by the military in 2006 who has lived in self-exile since 2008, said that he expects Thailand to have a coalition government after the May 14 general election even if the largest opposition Pheu Thai Party wins a majority in the lower house.

"I believe it will be a coalition government, definitely," Thaksin told Nikkei Asia in an exclusive interview in Tokyo, adding that he is confident Pheu Thai will win at least 250 seats in the 500-seat chamber.

Thaksin also told Nikkei that he would not want the new government to issue an amnesty allowing him to return home, however strongly Pheu Thai performs. He will return to Thailand of his own accord at some stage, even if it means serving a jail term.

"I think about going home all the time, but I don't want the government to issue an amnesty for me," he said.

Thaksin declined to say whether Pheu Thai is making any deals with other political parties to form a new government.

"I am just a founder of the party -- not a member -- so what I can do is observe the election from a distance," he said.

Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire telecom tycoon, gained prominence in Thai politics in 1998 when he founded the Thai Rak Thai Party, which won a landslide election victory in 2001. He set up a single-party government after a number of small parties were absorbed by Thai Rak Thai, which literally means 'Thais Love Thais.'

Thailand's House of Representatives was dissolved on March 20, paving the way for a general election on May 14, when more than 52 million eligible voters will have the opportunity to elect a new government. This follows nine years of military-dominated rule that produced Thailand's 20th constitution and imposed an unelected Senate able, among other things, to dictate the choice of prime minister.

Of the 500 seats in the lower house, 400 have been assigned to local constituencies, and 100 are allocated on a party list basis from the overall election result to provide an element of proportional representation.

Thaksin is fielding his youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, to lead the Pheu Thai election campaign, but it is unclear if she will be its prime minister candidate.

Thaksin was the first elected Thai prime minister to go full term, and in 2005 was reelected with 377 seats. His youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra was elected prime minister in 2011, and removed in 2014 by court order shortly before the current prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, staged his coup as army chief.

Pheu Thai was set up in 2007 as a reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai. It won the largest number of seats in the 2019 election, but without a majority was unable to form a coalition government.