Thailand economy retracts 6.1% in Q4

[PattayaMale]

Aljazeera TV did a report on Thailand's economy today. It reported that the economy contracted 6.1%, GM is laying off 25% of its Thai work force, exports are down 26%, tourism arrival down 20%, and the Thai Board of Trade feels the worse is still to come.

 

On a positive note, the banking system is strong. It has great equity. Its interest rate will be cut again.

 

I was talking to a group of USA friends at Oud's bar and even though there was great discussion about the economy in US and in Thailand, we all agreed that none of us were suffering.

[KhorTose]

I hope for my sake that things stay the same in Thailand. I am really looking forward to my retirement in August. However, you are saying this is on a day when the red and yellow shirts clashed in the streets in Pattaya. Poor economy ="s unemployment and hungry people ="s discontent and crime. It may come to a time when appearing to be well off could be very dangerous, especially if all aspects of law and order go away. Time will tell, but I think it may be a tad early to be content at this point.

I do not mean to lay a downer on you, but what I am trying to say is have a good time, but watch you ass and have some plans to be safe or get to safety if the shit hits the fan.

[Guest Oogleman]

Khun Abhisit believes the economy will get better in the second half of this year,

 

I`m afraid i think we`ve just seen the tip of the iceberg. I hope im badly wrong.

[Bob]

...the Thai Board of Trade feels the worse is still to come.

 

About the only comment on this thread that I believe (other than many have not yet been significantly impacted by the downturns).

 

The apparent reality is that Asia started it's heading toward the economic toilet 6-9 months after the US and Asian bad times are just beginning. Sadly, there's beginning to be a snowball effect and every "buying" country that's heading south is dragging the "selling" countries with them. The slashing of jobs due to reduced exports is just beginning to be felt in the Asia economies. It's going to get awfully ugly for the next couple (or more) years. I personally see a convergence of factors all at once that have not been ever seen and my fear is what is about to happen will make 1997 in Asia look not all that bad.

 

As for the Thai banking system being strong, I respectfully disagree. Based on what I've read, it's in reality rather thinly capitalized (largely due to refusal to recognize the true worth of their loan portfolios) and some (like TMB) would have been taken over by the FDIC years ago had TMB been in the west.

 

Hate to be the pessimist but I see absolutely nothing on the horizon that indicates anything is going to get better anytime soon. Those of us who have been "safe so far" probably are going to get substantially affected by inflation later if/when the world economies ever recover.

[payless]

My work (in Thailand) involves manufacturing/production and exports. There has been a 40% drop in activity during the last 4 months. As Bob says supplying countries are floundering in the wake of consumer counties not consuming. It also comes back to the credit crunch as banks will not lend to either exporters or importers and export guarantees are hard to come by. So in some cases there is demand but there is no finance available to support the exports

Referencing the banks in Thailand; the strength is relative to banks in developed countries who have a seemingly bottomless pit of bad international loans and Thailand's banks generally have only domestic exposure.

I hope those who say they do not yet notice any difference will still be saying that in a few months time. I also hope they have some empathy for the inhabitants of a country some have adopted as their home.

 

Lastly the Thais are fairly stoical and adaptable and accept what is given to them. This includes being laid off or working 2 out of 4 weeks or whatever. They are good at surviving and without the state to fall back on they often have a strong family network to offer support.

[Guest]

Not to mention the red & yellow shirts trashing the tourism peak season.