Colombia - Monkeypox

[Riobard]

Tarnation, I have a trip planned this month with a sexual play focus within the Bogotá component, where majority Monkeypox incidence for the nation is located, but have been holding off on accommodations for the entire trip, in case this … and also minimal vaccine supply there. I estimate the daily Bogotá MSM incidence at 1/1,000, contagion point-prevalence at about 1/100 MSM.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Riobard said:

I have a trip planned this month with a sexual play focus within the Bogotá component

I think these trips are still doable - when aware of local caseloads/trends & making plans to mitigate.  For me, it’s getting to a point where I’m comfortable with an acceptable level of risk without killing the overall mood.  Public venues are probably out, hotels would do with proper individual discreet screening.  An imperfect solution - but, who knows what’s coming next and we can’t stop living. 

 

[Lonnie]

35 minutes ago, Riobard said:

where majority Monkeypox incidence for the nation

Hi Riobard,

 I thought you were one of the lucky ones and got  the"simian" vaccine early in this outbreak. Are you unsure of its effectiveness?

If I remember right and you did get the vaccine...were there any side effects?

 

[Riobard]

12 minutes ago, Slvkguy said:

I think these trips are still doable - when aware of local caseloads/trends & making plans to mitigate.  For me, it’s getting to a point where I’m comfortable with an acceptable level of risk without killing the overall mood.  Public venues are probably out, hotels would do with proper individual discreet screening.  An imperfect solution - but, who knows what’s coming next and we can’t stop living. 

 

Well said. My deeply researched and experience-based (past in Bogotá) playbook was to have been strictly tourism outside of Bogotá. Exclusively venue-curated play, ie, St Moritz baths and Gigolo club upstairs when in Bogotá 3 nights. My decision rests on postponing due to those two congregate setting risks and leaving only airfare on the table versus a possible abstinent couple of weeks. I don’t hire from ads. 

[Riobard]

8 minutes ago, Lonnie said:

Hi Riobard,

 I thought you were one of the lucky ones and got  the"simian" vaccine early in this outbreak. Are you unsure of its effectiveness?

If I remember right and you did get the vaccine...were there any side effects?

 

No adverse reaction to one standard MVA-BN dose, on top of the possible benefit of having had Smallpox vaccination some 6 decades back. 

Reservations relate to commonly accepted uncertainty about MVA-BN protectiveness.

Also, without vaccine supply in Colombia an exponential incidence surge could temporarily shut down where I intended to be naughty by the time I arrive, possibly as case incidence is peaking. 

[Latbear4blk]

I had the smallpox vaccine several times during my school life and military service back in Argentina. This coming Sunday, I have my appointment to get my first monkeypox vaccine shot. It was super easy to get it here in DC. I am horny and, as in DC the infection rate is high, I am abstinent. I can't wait.

I can't wait either for my next trip, in November. Once fully vaccinated, I will start purchasing tickets and making reservations. I am still struggling between Rio and Medellin, but Rio is winning. 

[Mavica]

Risks are not just to us individually, but to many others.  I will act responsibly, and the risk to me is too great to frequent the GP saunas in Rio - or elsewhere - so I've decided to postpone/cancel a possible Fall trip to Rio.  For me, the level of risk is not "doable".  We sleep with the many others our partners have slept with.  All too many people forget about or were not alive in the 80s when HIV hit and devastated our community.  Yes, immunize ourselves if we can / want.  But let's be real, and responsible for our health and the health of others.  Ok, sermon is over!  😁

[likeohmygod]

Monkeypox scaremongering even here…oh god.

I estimate the daily Bogotá MSM incidence at 1/1,000, contagion point-prevalence at about 1/100 MSM.

Just stay away from sex parties and don’t stick the cock of people showing blisters and lesions on their skin, inside your ass. 
 

In Europe despite a ring vaccination rate near to zero compared to the US and zero prevention measures apart from the self awareness crap, there has been no mass extinction nor armies of disfigured fellow fags due to the MPX lesions. 

Also that’s why in Brazil “no one cares”. 
No one cares because especially after covid risks must be weighted correctly and I honestly think that apart from the few severe cases and the 14 deaths over 300k estimated cases globally (60k official), it’s perfectly understandable if people give to this virus the attention it deserves.

Also FYI…Colombia testing rate is something like 7 times higher than Brazil 

[xpaulo]

10 minutes ago, likeohmygod said:

Monkeypox scaremongering even here…oh god.

I don't think it's scaremongering. If you're having sex with guys who make their living having sex with European tourists among others,  chances are they're going to get monkeypox. On the plus side, it's also possible they've had it and recovered and are now immune.

[likeohmygod]

Of course. I can also get hit by an asteroid, but the risks must get assessed correctly without providing distorted numbers  

In Spain, the European hotspot, it really struggled to spread inside the MSM community despite the daily parties happening in the major cities, the orgies, the saunas, the tons of escorts.

I cannot tell you the number of parties I have took part in the last two months, where I have seen a quantity of sex which doesn’t even compare to the precovid period. 

I mean guys…there’s a crapload of STDs around, especially in Colombia and Brazil, which have a higher incidence and an higher death rate than MPX. 

Honestly I accepted the risk of getting gono, siphy, hepA while sucking a cock or eating an ass because unless your sucking cocks in condoms, that’s what you’re risking when having sex with a professional.

No big difference with MPX for which there’s also a vaccine, which everyone should try to get  

If you guys are waiting for this to settle, you’ll never travel anymore. 

No intention to offend anyone of course. I am just tired of this crap which gets constantly fueled by media.

[Latbear4blk]

3 hours ago, xpaulo said:

I don't think it's scaremongering. If you're having sex with guys who make their living having sex with European tourists among others,  chances are they're going to get monkeypox. On the plus side, it's also possible they've had it and recovered and are now immune.

Comparing monkeypox to HIV is indeed scare mongering.

[Riobard]

4 hours ago, likeohmygod said:

Monkeypox scaremongering even here…oh god.

I estimate the daily Bogotá MSM incidence at 1/1,000, contagion point-prevalence at about 1/100 MSM.

Just stay away from sex parties and don’t stick the cock of people showing blisters and lesions on their skin, inside your ass. 
 

In Europe despite a ring vaccination rate near to zero compared to the US and zero prevention measures apart from the self awareness crap, there has been no mass extinction nor armies of disfigured fellow fags due to the MPX lesions. 

Also that’s why in Brazil “no one cares”. 
No one cares because especially after covid risks must be weighted correctly and I honestly think that apart from the few severe cases and the 14 deaths over 300k estimated cases globally (60k official), it’s perfectly understandable if people give to this virus the attention it deserves.

Also FYI…Colombia testing rate is something like 7 times higher than Brazil 

No need to hyperventilate. Take your Facebook U credentials to Twitter rants. LOL

My figures are correct based on MSM population share denominators and duration of case transmissibility. You seem to be manufacturing testing and reported:true incidence data to make a point regarding your subjective take on the gravity of the situation and to project hysteria on another’s simple rendering of objective facts that would undermine a vacation if simple bad luck were to occur, a trip that is postponable, at a fairly definable degree of probability in the context of commercial sex trade in particular, that sex tourism mode additionally located in the sleazy person-congested indoor settings we have grown to love.

There is nothing you can teach me about Infectious Diseases that I don’t already grasp.

I have actually written nothing on this forum about Monkeypox morbidity and mortality. I have myself pointed out the substantial drop from peak case incidence in Spain. Yes it is correct that, for example, in Spain MVA-BN uptake at merely about 5% the target susceptible MSM subpopulation has been followed by a steep case incidence decline evidently heading to its first nadir. To what extent shifts in occurrence are attributable to vaccination, pathogen self-limiting factors,  etc, are unclear. 

There is nothing overreactive about aiming to strategize one’s timing of trips to hopefully coincide with lowered disease risk according to infection prevalence trends that are usefully available according to public health surveillance over time. That is simply an additional slice of Swiss cheese added to the stack that includes other tried and true behavioural risk mitigation measures at our disposal, aiming to prevent a seeping through of a mishap that ruins a trip. 

I caught dengue in Brazil. It destroyed a pricey vacation. The transmission chances are very low. I return repeatedly. If 1 in 100 mosquitoes bites in Rio de Janeiro were to be accompanied by a fair probability of gifting dengue in spite of common sense attempts to reduce exposure, if it could actually be reasonably quantified, it would give pause. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, likeohmygod said:

No big difference with MPX for which there’s also a vaccine, which everyone should try to get  

Monkeypox and most other STIs are not comparable - Monkeypox is worse. Quarantine can be up to 4-weeks and for some, the lesions are permanent scarring/disfigurement.  And it’s not treatable with a simple shot or one-week course of pills.  That said, the mortality rate is negligible and people survive it, albeit many report excruciating pain due to the lesions.  It’s not HIV and it’s not Hep C.

The official numbers in most countries are underreported bc many just go through it or testing was/is unavailable.  The official numbers can be used for guidance and trends though.  Spain was quietly vaccinating a targeted population of high risk people over the summer - it was not public information due to extreme scarcity of vaccine. Exactly the same way it was being done in the US in June when I got the first shot. They had to have proof that I was exposed at a specific known place with a specific known individual by name. Otherwise, no vaccine.  That changed as the vaccine supply became more available.

I personally would not go into a public sex-venue in South America where Monkeypox is just getting started and there is very little vaccine.  I would still make the trip and adjust my gameplan to minimize chances of exposure.  I’d probably use online ads with some screening before the hire and additional discreet screening when meeting in person - greatly reducing the probability of exposure vs a public venue with multiple partners. 

The vaccines are not 100% protection (at best 85% effective) and breakthrough cases are on record. Nobody really knows where this is going and that’s the point. Each person gets to make choices that ok for them.  I’d prefer to err on the cautious side for now and make minor changes that make me comfortable.  I visited Termas BCN in mid July (4-weeks after first shot vaccine) when Monkeypox was spreading in Spain. Staying in one private room for a couple of hours with two people that I knew only vs unlimited debauchery like pre-Covid was an ok accommodation at the time.  If I hadn’t been vaccinated, I would have skipped it.

i used  the same thinking with Covid - have traveled extensively the past 2 years and never had it. Small changes based on current information can make a big difference. It’s not alarmist or panic, but rather using data to make better educated decisions to an acceptable level of risk. And that’s a personal choice.  None of the mitigation strategies I used killed the mood of the trip and I still had a great time.

And if by chance, you get infected w Monkeypox while in a foreign country and show up at the airport with visible lesions, you’re most likely not getting on the plane home. What happens next is anyones guess.  It would be like being trapped with Covid, but exponentially worse. Likely no treatment, complete isolation, extreme pain and possibly no insurance coverage for your forced extended stay.  Good times 

 

[likeohmygod]

4 hours ago, Riobard said:

No need to hyperventilate. Take your Facebook U credentials to Twitter rants. LOL

My figures are correct based on MSM population share denominators and duration of case transmissibility.

There is nothing you can teach me about Infectious Diseases that I don’t already grasp.

There is nothing overreactive about aiming to strategize one’s timing of trips to hopefully coincide with lowered disease risk according to infection prevalence trends that are usefully available according to public health surveillance over time.

No need to be a twat...you can try to explain a concept without having to be a jerk for once in your life. 😂

Well in the end we're all Bill Gates and Faucis behind a nickname right? And of course you expect us to say, "oh you're so right! That's true!", because there cannot be any other person which knows statistics, and/or medicine besides you. But hey...Good for you . Even if your figures make absolutely no sense, especially because are backed by nothing... unless you're providing certain and verificable data, yes that's just scaremongering and numbers which come out of your fantasy.

There will always be a reason to delay a flight then. Yesterday it was Covid, today is MPX, tomorrow will be X. Risks should be weighted properly.

4 hours ago, Slvkguy said:

Monkeypox and most other STIs are not comparable - Monkeypox is worse. Quarantine can be up to 4-weeks and for some, the lesions are permanent scarring/disfigurement.

It's not HIV, it's not HepC, it's not HepA, not HepB, it's not syphilis...there's quite a long list of STDs which have or can have long lasting effects, compared to MPX if not diagnosed early and that spread much more easily. And again this is mostly the result of the media and of Google Images influence over the people. I know at least 30/35 guys who got MPX while together with me, were partying in Spain and Germany. The worst case was admitted to the hospital for pain control due to lesions inside his butt (which healed). The worst outcome has been 2 acne like scars.

Do you guys really think that in Colombia the situation is worse than Brazil?

Spain has been quietly rolling out vaccination...exactly quietly, because it's been a joke... 4000 people vaccinated during a 2 months period...as in the rest of europe of course. Lucky those who got vaccinated, including me. Rollout numbers are totally different than those in the US (as usual of course).

Still it's nearly gone in Spain and in Germany. People positive to MPX after the 2nd dose? yeah...rare but it can happen. Of course. And of course it's a mild to completely asimptomatic disease.

4 hours ago, Slvkguy said:

And if by chance, you get infected w Monkeypox while in a foreign country and show up at the airport with visible lesions, you’re most likely not getting on the plane home. What happens next is anyones guess.  It would be like being trapped with Covid, but exponentially worse. Likely no treatment, complete isolation, extreme pain and possibly no insurance coverage for your forced extended stay.  Good times 

I am sorry but again to me this is scaremongering, not only because IATA has issued no guidance to follow when it comes to denying boarding to people showing a rash on their face, but no western country has any kind of guidance (from their health authorities) at arrival nor at departure. It would make no sense at all even because the symptoms (which are not those of the scary images on internet) can easily be confused for other diseases and viceversa, exposing the airline to legal consequences.

And in the end..there are travel insurances. So if you get MPX, and therefore you cannot travel, you will have to prolong your stay just as if you got stabbed, shot, broke an arm, a hand, got covid, got dengue, got flu, got west nile virus. If your insurance doesn't cover this....change it for god sake.

I am not saying that you guys should be bitching out, i am just saying that the things must be sized correctly, and that there's no need to invent daily incidence rates for Colombia, or Brasil, or speculating over underreporting, which has been much worse in Spain in july than in Colombia or Brazil right now.

With that said. Goodbye and good life to everyone.

I will always remember those good times where this forum was actually a good platform where to receive and provide very good guidance and experiences over latin guys, not just a stage for drama queens (not referring to you Slvkguy).

Far times.

[floridarob]

wtf was that rant all about....were you at an all night rave in Spain as you wrote it 🙄

[Riobard]

Just to be clear, my Bogotá Monkeypox case prevalence estimate of approximately 1 in 100 intimacy candidates is based on official reports of current rolling case incidence, adjusted for Bogotá proportionality of national figures as well as consensus regarding proportionality of susceptible MSM within overall general populations, and a conservative estimate of on-average 10 days of individual case contagion.

It does not account for possible undercount because the ratio of true incidence to diagnosed incidence is not known. Therefore, my estimate is actually conservative overall. If case undercount is a genuine phenomenon, then the point prevalence increases upward from 1/100 to the extent that the current officially reported case incidence is inaccurate. For example, 3 undiagnosed cases, for every diagnosed case that underpins surveillance figures, alters the overall Bogotá MSM setting point prevalence estimate to 1 in 25-ish.

Ironically, the opinion that undercount is a feature that supports the relatively innocuous consequences of this virus, as believed by some, just inflates estimates of point prevalence. If those estimates represent ‘fear porn’ to some attempting to interpret risk, then the assertion that there is a tip:iceberg ratio is where the finger-pointing regarding alarmism more appropriately lands.

What is important is knowing probability of cases and associated transmission potential in specific contexts. Thereafter every individual must assess their particular infection risk tolerance. The clinical consequences are fairly well known. I would not presume to either minimize or exaggerate those consequences. It is mystifying that a reader would obnoxiously object to epidemiological data reporting because the magnitude of prevalence appears to him to contradict his subjective view of the magnitude of morbidity impact.

The trend of decline in incidence may eventually emerge in Colombia that seemingly arrived late to the party. If the disease peters out, say, because 75% of MSM infections are dispersed by 25% of those MSM and the latter achieves higher rates of recovery and/or vaccination immunity that in turn reduce ongoing transmission all that will have been a reassuring good thing that happened because a bad thing preceded it. The anticipation of absence of incidence recidivism in specific locations actually supports the idea of capitulating to a transient adjustment in travel plans. That is hardly at the level of being perpetually startled by one’s shadow. 

[pauleiro]

20 hours ago, likeohmygod said:

With that said. Goodbye and good life to everyone.

I will always remember those good times where this forum was actually a good platform where to receive and provide very good guidance and experiences over latin guys, not just a stage for drama queens (not referring to you Slvkguy).

Far times.

We will miss you likeohmygod and all your witty and informative comments !