Are You Prepared For The Coming Global Recession?

[alvnv]

New Left was in the 1960s and 1970s: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Left

 

[PeterRS]

2 hours ago, alvnv said:

New Left was in the 1960s and 1970s: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Left

 

The discussion is about communism affecting capitalism and western European governments in the decade of the 1970s. The New Left was not a communist movement and in many western countries merely made up of fringe groups with little direct influence. It certainly had nothing to do with western European governments. Or did I miss something?

[alvnv]

44 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

The discussion is about communism affecting capitalism and western European governments in the decade of the 1970s. The New Left was not a communist movement and in many western countries merely made up of fringe groups with little direct influence. It certainly had nothing to do with western European governments. Or did I miss something?

The New Left was different things for different members who could not agree with each other and, it did happen to include communists: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Communist_movement

The discussion, as I recall, was how two camps of superpowers, right (capitalist) and left (communist) kept each other in check (so to say) and tried to influence political and social processes in each other’s countries.

Sorry for oversimplifying definitions of capitalism/right and communist/left - it’s quite inaccurate, I know 😌

[vinapu]

6 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Sorry @vinapu but I don't seem to be following you. Communisim was anthema to most post-war Western European governments. It had reached the peak of its influence around 1945-46. Then the Iron Curtain fell. As far as I am aware, only in Italy was there a sizeable Communist Party but it never gained power nor did it ever share power. Did communists actually particpate in any post war Western Eurpean governments - i.e. those outside the Soviet bloc?

France and Italy at least as far as i know plus one of lesser countries, can't recall which. Plus Czechoslovakia, we should remember that until 1948 it was bona fide democracy. On another hand after communism finally collapsed in beginning of 90ties , their share of vote in Czechoslovakia and later in Czech Republic was quite high for a while.

Anathema started more or lass after Churchil's Fulton speech. By the way his electoral defeat to Labour right after leading world and UK to win in 2nd World War is somewhat telling.

Don't take me as one who is trying to spill communist propaganda here by my comments in this thread just owing to some  reasons I may have more nuanced view of communism vs capitalism issue. 

 Communist propaganda claiming all people are even was as fake as capitalist one claiming all have equal opportunity - tell this to people of English or American rust belts.

And if this doesn't change sooner or later we will have new Lenin. Good news we are both of age that if will be after we are gone, LOL

[PeterRS]

8 hours ago, vinapu said:

France and Italy at least as far as i know plus one of lesser countries, can't recall which. Plus Czechoslovakia, we should remember that until 1948 it was bona fide democracy. On another hand after communism finally collapsed in beginning of 90ties , their share of vote in Czechoslovakia and later in Czech Republic was quite high for a while.

Anathema started more or lass after Churchil's Fulton speech. By the way his electoral defeat to Labour right after leading world and UK to win in 2nd World War is somewhat telling.

Don't take me as one who is trying to spill communist propaganda here by my comments in this thread just owing to some  reasons I may have more nuanced view of communism vs capitalism issue. 

I still don't follow! Communist parties certainly had a presence in the immediate post-war politics of France and Italy. But they never reached any major presence and, unlike as reported earlier by another poster, never played any role in any post war Western European governments. i agree that Churchill's defeat after WWII was in part due to the desire of the electorate for a governmemt that would implement the social change proposals in the 1943 Beveridge Report. But all that took place decades before the 1970s.

I stand by my first comments in response to @vinapu's suggestion that communism was keeping capitalism in check during the 1970s. Sorry but I just do not believe that assertion at all. Those in Europe who did have communist sympathies post war quickly fell by the wayside with the Soviet actions during the early part of the Cold War in the 1950s. And the few that were left quickly rethought their positions after the Berlin Wall and the Warsaw Pact forces snuffing out the desire for freedom during the Prague Spring - both in the 1960s.

[vinapu]

22 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I. Sorry but I just do not believe that assertion at all. 

Blessed as those who did not see and still believed

[PeterRS]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

Blessed as those who did not see and still believed

That comment merely runs away from my various comments that are directly opposed to your inaccurate comments. Sorry, but nothing you have written actually backs up your assertions re the 1970s!

[vinapu]

47 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

That comment merely runs away ........

correct, out of mercy for other,  uninterested readers

[PeterRS]

5 hours ago, vinapu said:

correct, out of mercy for other,  uninterested readers

With respect, as you well know there is nothing that makes uninterested readers look at any paricular post or thread. It's great that there has been quite a flood of new posts on other topics recently.

I happen to believe historical accuracy is important - but others clearly seem not to agree.

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, PeterRS said:

 

I happen to believe historical accuracy is important 

I don't even believe there's such thing as historical accuracy, winners are picking their pieces , losers are wailing over theirs and most, who don't care , don't care indeed.

Take fresh case, was Gorbachev great Soviet leader or bad ? How one assess him  using historical accuracy method ? Or Alexander the Great - 2500 years later historian are debating whether he was antiquity's greatest  leader or unrivalled butcher, beaten by Chengiz Khan only 1500 years later. 

[PeterRS]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

I don't even believe there's such thing as historical accuracy, winners are picking their pieces , losers are wailing over theirs and most, who don't care , don't care indeed.

Take fresh case, was Gorbachev great Soviet leader or bad ? How one assess him  using historical accuracy method ? Or Alexander the Great - 2500 years later historian are debating whether he was antiquity's greatest  leader or unrivalled butcher, beaten by Chengiz Khan only 1500 years later. 

Sorry @vinapu - you have strayed way off topic - and there is indeed such a thing as historical accuracy. We have been discussing the recession in the 1970s. The facts - accuracy - of what happened during those years are perfectly well documented in great detail.

Perhaps you can enlighten us what have Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to do with that decade?

[vinapu]

44 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

 and there is indeed such a thing as historical accuracy. We have been discussing the recession in the 1970s.

all depends where one a seats. There's no  universal recession, prosperity , war  or peace. Often even within one country.

On recession of 70 we never agree for simple reason -, perhaps  you or your country , at least here and there,  suffered one. I was in place which prospered very well indeed 

Paid heavy price for it later , but recession of 70 ties sounds for me like 'black snow ' or ' sizzling ice cream".

Most of world's wealth is indeed in so called West but humanity's  reason and experience is more evenly distributed. 

[vinapu]

55 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

Perhaps you can enlighten us what have Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan to do with that decade?

all three are long dead

[PeterRS]

12 hours ago, vinapu said:

all depends where one a seats. There's no  universal recession, prosperity , war  or peace. Often even within one country.

Fair point. But my main point is that you related the recession suffered by many countries in the 1970s, not just the UK - after all, the quadrulping of the price of oil at the start of that decade affected all oil importing country - with communism. It had nothing to do with communism. Yet for whatever reason, you fail to accept that! Let me restate - the draconian oil price caused a worldwide recession. Not sure wher eyou live but it certainly affected your country unless you come form a country which was an oil exporter.

12 hours ago, vinapu said:

all three are long dead

Again you totally deflect. You brought up those historical figures in relation to this discussion. You quoted them to prove that there is no such thing as historical accuracy.  So you believe that what happened 50 or so years ago cannot be recorded accurately? Come on! That is absolute nonsense and you know it!

[vinapu]

21 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Come on! That is absolute nonsense and you know it!

no, that's absolute novelty for me 

 

[PeterRS]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

no, that's absolute novelty for me 

WIth all respect to you @vinapu as one of the most prolific and important posters on this board, you are lousy when it comes to arguing your case in a discussion. This one has just descended in nonsense!

[vinapu]

11 hours ago, PeterRS said:

WIth all respect to you @vinapu as one of the most prolific and important posters on this board, you are lousy when it comes to arguing your case in a discussion. This one has just descended in nonsense!

I run out of 'likes" for today  but will click it when new quota opens up.

as for descend to nonsense , what can I say ? no harm done if goal is reached perhaps ? /

 

[Moses]

14 hours ago, wtfool said:

if that keeps the Russians

It will not: Aeroflot starts flights from October 30. Winter schedule is just published.

[Moses]

3 minutes ago, wtfool said:

so you think it will be back to normal

Not in this year: regular flights will be restored, but charter program is still smaller than in pre-COVID era (in 2019 there was about 70 flights per week only to Phuket)

6 minutes ago, wtfool said:

if it is I'll sell my condo to one of them

I don't think it will work: Thai property market isn't that interesting for Russians as property markets in Montenegro, Bulgaria or Turkey - Thailand is too far from Russia. For example in 2022 Russians are #1 buyers of property in Turkey because only 3-4 hours to fly, Ruble got almost 3 times stronger against Turkey lira, also Russia has about 700 flights per week to Turkey. So property sales to Russians grew more than 10 times at past 5 years in Turkey.

[Moses]

36 minutes ago, wtfool said:

maybe you forget Moses they (Russia) have a very big population, there are already many Russian owners at my condo building,  Pratumnak/Jomtien is very very popular with Russians, I made my remark "tongue in cheek" as I love my condo but if I were to decide to sell very good chance it would be to a Russian as they buy before at my building at .40 and now they get .60+, the rise in the Ruble would for sure mean more Russian buyers in Thailand if they were travelling pre war/covid.

I don't forget. You are speaking about past, I'm speaking about current situation. After liberalization of law in Turkey and falls almost 80% or Turkey Lira, Turkey property market became much more attractive for Russians than Thai property market: cheap to live, cheap to buy, 3 times less time to fly and it is possible just spend weekends in your home in Istanbul on in Antalya because flights are also cheap, easy to get residence permit (you need just a proof of $500 income monthly) for 1 year and then to prolong it yearly, for it you should just rent any apartments or house on long term (at least  - one year agreement). Residence permit is granted to owners of any property. Russian payment system MIR is working in Turkey. After 8 years of living with residence permit you may apply for citizenship. All these make Turkey more attractive than Thailand. The only drawback is - sea is cold from November till April.

Summarizing all above: you may expect growing arrival of Russians to Thailand for to spend vacation on the beach from November till April, but I'm in serious doubts what that arrival will revive stagnations on Thai property market. 

[Moses]

12 minutes ago, wtfool said:

I'll stand by my comment that if things were back to normal regarding war/covid and the Russians came back to Thailand in big numbers then for sure they'd be buying property in Thailand

Now is my turn to tell "you forgot". You forgot what I'm Russian and while you are writing here about your dreams and thoughts, I'm writing about facts and trends: Turkey won, Thailand isn't popular country for investment in property for Russians anymore: too many restrictions and problems, and you will never have citizenship in Thailand. In Turkey you will get it 100% in 8 years or in 3 years if property will be $400K+.

No age restrictions for residence permit, proof of just $500 monthly income, working bank cards, cheap living.

[Moses]

10 minutes ago, wtfool said:

oh my, from the bangkok post, Russian buyers in Phuket are number 1 in world, in first half of 2022 they bought more than the whole of 2021, seems they're not only buying in Turkey after all Moses

74 units? seriously? Now compare with 1800 sales per month in Turkey. That shows exactly what I told: Turkey won, Thailand lost competition for Russian property investors wallets.

[Moses]

I like facts.

Russian will arrive soon because Aeroflot will start winter schedule from 30 October.

Russians will not buy property in Thailand because Thailand isn't popular for property investments in Russian anymore.

What's wrong?

P.S. Russians are owners of 40% of properties in Montenegro: also not far to fly, cheap living, language is Slavonic and is easy understandable.

[Moses]

1 minute ago, wtfool said:

Many Russian banks have been locked out of the SWIFT international payment system including the country’s biggest lenders Sberbank and VTB.

Don't read Western news about Russia :)))) I'll translate to reality for you: "many Russian banks" means 9 of 360+

[Moses]

27 minutes ago, wtfool said:

yet they bought more than 70% of all condos sold in Phuket this year

they bough only about 4-5% of property available to sale, because normal amount of sales for Phuket is about 1500, and that exactly means 2 things:

1. property market in Thailand is in agony

2. 25 sales per month in Thailand in comparation with 1800 sales in Turkey means only one thing - Russians aren't interested in investments to Thai property anymore