Xi Jinping facing unprecedented challenge from Li Keqiang

[reader]

From The Nation

President Xi Jinping’s order to ruthlessly lockdown Shanghai, China’s financial hub, has resulted in heavy damage to the country’s economy – but also unprecedented criticism of Xi’s zero-Covid policy by his No 2, Li Keqiang.

The criticism by Premier Li, who heads the State Council and is the second most powerful person in China, signals a major rift within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Speaking two weeks ago at a meeting of over 100,000 local officials, Premier Li said Xi’s zero-Covid policy was leading the country towards disaster by banning over 25 million people in Shanghai from leaving their homes for almost three months.

Analysts speculate that Li’s criticism stems from a deep disagreement within the CCP.

In an earlier teleconference meeting of the State Council, Li declared China’s economy is facing a bigger challenge than when Covid-19 started spreading in early 2020. He said the rate of capital outflow was unprecedented, while foreign investors who once believed in the government’s disease control measures are now fed up with lockdown policies that were crippling manufacturing. This had resulted in many multinational corporations halting operations or moving out of China entirely, he added.

The criticism of China’s president is shocking and unprecedented in the history of the CCP, though it has made few headlines in the foreign press.

Analysts calculate that the true aim of Xi’s zero-Covid policy is not to curb infections but to cement his power after the constitution was amended to allow him to remain as president for life instead of just two terms. They believe Xi is using this policy to show that he is putting the people first by slashing the infection rate. After all, a communist party governs by forcing people to follow the rules rather than giving them options.

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/perspective/40016547

[PeterRS]

Whatever Xi's motives, there seems little doubt that he is facing considerable difficulties behind the scenes at the very top of the country's leadership over his actions and his policies. There is definitely drama going on although no one outside the leadership is aware of exactly what it involves.

There was a fascinating interview on a recent episode of the BBC World television programme Unspun World hosted by veteran foreign correspondent John Simpson. It claimed that Xi now has to worry about a three pronged attack.

The most dangerous is the public backlash against his zero-covid policy. It is not just Premier Li's comments. It's a massive volume of social media posts, mostly couched in indirect language, from all around the country. The Politburo can only govern with the Chinese people on its side. For the first time in a very long time, there is an extremely large groundswell of anti-government feeling.

Second is the economy. Premier Li has been talking about dangers to the country's economy for months. Recently he organised a huge and unprecedented teleconference with 100,000 leaders around the country. It is believed this went right down to village level. Unusually he was incredibly frank by telling people that the government had very few reserves left to bail out industries. Most of these reserves had to  be kept for emergencies. Once the little that remained was gone, industries were on their own. He could never have made such comments without approval from the very top of the Politburo.

Third is Xi's crackdown over the last few years on the private sector added to his cosying up to Putin on the eve of the Ukraine invasion. Many at the top level of government are not at all happy about all this. The Deputy Foreign Minister in charge of Russian Affairs was quietly removed from his post at the end of May. We don't know if that was an indication of the thinking higher up, but the level of rhetoric against the west re Ukraine in the state media has gradually been diminished.

[Lonnie]

5 hours ago, reader said:

The criticism of China’s president is shocking and unprecedented in the history of the CCP, though it has made few headlines in the foreign press.

Thanks...you made my day!  You go along thinking the outcome is a foregone conclusion but maybe not?

[fedssocr]

I've been seeing a lot of news about how vulnerable their economy really is. I don't know if things will just collapse all at once or in stages...or if they will manage keep it together. But the people had no option but to invest in real estate which is on the brink as an industry. The massive corruption throughout the system has led to lots of problems. I don't know if everyone is just whistling past the graveyard because the consequences are too painful to think about. But once reality hits it's going to be trouble for the world.

[vinapu]

great thread and great news.

World as a whole and any country doesn't need new pharaohs clinging to power for life. Limit of 2 terms served China well. Problems with Russia started when Putin manipulated constitution to allow himself to be in charge forever. Whoever invented term limits  is greater inventor of all times well ahead of guy or girl who invented wheel, toilet paper or even sliced bread.

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, fedssocr said:

I've been seeing a lot of news about how vulnerable their economy really is

communism never works, regardless of the capitalist tweaks to make it a technical “mixed economy”.  a planned economy without true market forces at work is bound to fail.  never mind it’s all built on copying others & no true innovation - it’s the Chinese way and has been for centuries.  Ever bought a Chinese made car or flown on a Chinese built airliner ?  Likely not and there’s a reason.  It sounds like the Chinese have been living on borrowed time and the bill is coming due.  Their corruption is staggering so I wouldn’t be surprised what’s eventually uncovered at massive scale.  Kleptocracies never work either aka Russia et al.  

for the myriad of problems in the US & a potential collapse of democracy - the US leads the world in innovation in every sector.  universities that lead the world, freedom to innovate and entrepreneurs from the US will continue to dominate world commerce as long as our political system is somewhat intact.  it will be a great tragedy & ultimate irony if the backwoods red staters eventually undo all things that made the US the world leader.  They don’t even have a clue what they’re doing.  Where would they be without California & New York as just two examples ?  No tech, no entertainment, no media and no global financial capital.  If they think that can happen from Tennessee, Arkansas or Mississippi they are sadly mistaken - all of which are subsidized by federal taxes redistributed from blue states.  And that’s not exactly a function of the free markets either.  It’s not sustainable - the vast majority of Americans by population who dominate in every industry (except energy) controlled by a small minority that seem focused on radical right wing social issues and control.  Something’s got to give.

[PeterRS]

4 minutes ago, vinapu said:

Whoever invented term limits  is greater inventor of all times well ahead of guy or girl who invented wheel, toilet paper or even sliced bread.

There are surely arguments both for and against term limits, especially short term limits. One of the problems the USA will have to face, in my very narrow view, is that the entire election cycle is far too short termist. Why 2 years for Congressmen and women against 6 years for senators? And why just 4 years for a President, yet lifetime tenure for the Supreme Court? And why a Supreme Court that is so overtly political?

In the short term when there are only two political parties and power switches between the two, it's much more difficult to have longer term policies since all politicians want to be re-elected, all have to raise vast amounts of cash and parties want their own policies enacted. One reason (of several) why China was able to make such massive progress between around 1980 and 2010 when well over 400 million were dragged out of poverty was the lack of short-termism. Without elections the leadership could take Deng Xiao-ping's goals and had the time to put them into effect. Isn't that rather similar to Roosevelt being able to lead America through the Great Depression and then take a very isolationist Congress into two major wars and put the USA on the path to world leadership?

Being neither American or Chinese, I make these merely as observations. The same is more or less true with other democratic countries. Against that, of course, you have the problem of dictatorships and quasi dictatorships. Hugely admired Singapore is in fact a quasi dictatorship. Few will argue that Lee Kwan Yew was not a dictator, but he had a vision. Without him and that vision, I suggest it is unlikely that Singapore would be where it is today. As I think I have written before here, Japan is also at best a quasi dictatorship. It is certainly not a functioning democracy in the western sense. Then again, neither of those countries is anything like China or Russia.

Getting back to the topic, I cannot see China imploding. There will be changes, but few will know what they are. The Party leadership may be split between hardliners, moderates and progressives, but it will ensure that it remains in power by giving its population more of what it wants. I think those who are fervently against communism forget that within China itself there is still an immense pride in the country and its achievements since the end of the Cultural Revolution. The vast majority of Chinese are very proud to be Chinese and live in China. Yes, I know. Tell that to the peoples in Tibet and Xinjiang and I agree what has been happening there is a disgrace. Same with Hong Kong where Beijing has broken agreements enshrined in international law. But the vast majority of the Chinese know from their own experience and from what their parents and grandparents tell them of what China was like during the Cultural Revolution, in Mao's other disastrous campaigns and in the period of the warlords after the collapse of the Emperor system. They want stability. So I cannot see swings towards democracy or movements to change the way the country is run for many decades.

[PeterRS]

22 minutes ago, Slvkguy said:

a planned economy without true market forces at work is bound to fail.

Just an interesting aside based on a new book that has been published in the USA. The Man Who Broke Capitalism by David Gelles makes the case that Jack Welch, a hugely admired businessman who was CEO of General Electric for 20 years from 1981, changed the face of American   capitalism and ushered in an era of distrust which has resulted in the brutality of corporate America. He makes the case that in every company there would be 20% who were the cream, 70% who were good average workers and 10% who were not worth their pay packet. So managers were told that 10% of their workforce had to be fired every year. He also turned GE into much more of a financial company than a manufacturing one.

Many disciples of Welsh moved on to head other companies and instituted the same policies. Rather than any further summary, here is the very interesting interview Gelles gave on CNN yesterday.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

The Man Who Broke Capitalism by David Gelles makes the case that Jack Welch, a hugely admired businessman who was CEO of General Electric for 20 years from 1981, changed the face of American   capitalism and ushered in an era of distrust which has resulted in the brutality of corporate America.

this is fascinating & an excellent summary of where US capitalism went wrong.  Very smart that they didn’t bring politics into the discussion, but most would understand that the time period discussed (1981 & next few years) coincide with Reagan as POTUS and the radical shift in American tax policy, infrastructure investment & corporate governance.  In other words, greed hijacked the golden age of American capitalism.

thanks for posting - I would have never seen this otherwise 

[reader]

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