why usd to reais is so weak

[babybear2]

I took a look at USD to reais rate when preparing for next trip to brazil, and found usd to reais dropped so much over the past few months from 5.6 to 4.7

Is there a way for us to hedge reais while the rate is favorable?  

[floridarob]

normal should be about 3.3 to 1....then we'll see how cheap everyone thinks Brasil is.

Mexico is the same, has dropped below 20-1....it should be about 13 or 14

[speedoo1]

 Most likely due to the war in Ukraine and oil prices going up significantly. High oil/gas prices and strong demand (Russia has been banned by many countries/companies) boost the confidence in Brazilian economy and investors are buying BRL.

6 hours ago, babybear2 said:

Is there a way for us to hedge reais while the rate is favorable?  

.Prepay your hotel/Airbnb condos and exchange cash to BRL in your home country in advance.

[bucknaway]

Am I missing something? To me it looks like the real is getting stronger. It's costing more dollars to buy a 100 real note.

[bucky13]

On 4/2/2022 at 3:49 PM, bucknaway said:

Am I missing something? To me it looks like the real is getting stronger. It's costing more dollars to buy a 100 real note.

You're missing an accurate interpretation of @babybear2's post. 

Both of you acknowledge a recently weakened dollar.  

[Riobard]

Without accounting for respective inflation metrics it has to drop to about BRL3.50 before a rate hike of, say, from 150 reais in early 2015 to a current amount of 200 reais confers a true escort home team advantage in terms of the dollar’s value. Up until that hypothetical point the 33% pay increase continues to nevertheless translate to a salary cut in relative terms. If the baseline is arbitrarily set at the historical time frame of one’s initiation into trade there then there is no real valid comparison because there is a broad range above or below a difference of zero. 

[Lucky]

Dollar is down 17.5% against the real. So, if it does return to about 3.3 to 1, the inflation in Brazil will make it even worse. So let's keep that dollar up a little!

[babybear2]

5 hours ago, Lucky said:

Dollar is down 17.5% against the real. So, if it does return to about 3.3 to 1, the inflation in Brazil will make it even worse. So let's keep that dollar up a little!

Brazil is a expensive country except the sauna 

[Docbr01]

I’m fact the recent spike in Brazilian central bank interest rates (taxa Selic, as we call here in Brazil) from an all time low of 2% per year (unheard of in all Brazilian history) in the middle of the pandemic, a move to boost the economy, to the now actual rate of 11.7% / year, a move needed to slow down inflation, is the main reason that the Real gained value against the USD.

High interest rates mean more dollars in the country.

As Brazilian inflation rates are always very hard to control , we could expect higher interest rates and the dollar losing more value in front of the Brazilian real (or at least keeping it actual rates) for at least 2 years. 
On a side note, a window for investing in Brazilian real state is closing now … apartments were a real bargain here for a while (for anyone with USD that is).

[davet]

There is no normal rate. It is what it is. You can do a cost-of-living or purchasing power parity comparison but that's only in broad strokes, with lots of inconsistencies. Even the famous "Big Mac Index," in my view, is distortive because what's low-brow fast food in the US is considered an exotic luxury in other countries. 

FYI, when the real was born, it was 1:1 with the dollar, so that was what's intended to be "normal." When I first went to Brazil, a few years later, the rate crashed to almost 3:1 with, shockingly, no inflation. Brazil was insanely cheap then. Foolish me paid 50R for os garotos when I later surmised the going rate was closer to 20-30R. Looking back now, why didn't I just move to Brazil for a couple years?! 

[scott456]

I suspect many hotels and AirBNB apartments are priced in USD, then converted/adjusted back to Reais (Brazil) or Pesos(Mexico).  Hence, the value of your dollars does not change much.

In fact many hotels in Brazil are more expensive now than pre-covid.

[Riobard]

The Rio apartment I rent will be 2% more this summer (not defined school holiday period where demand may be higher) in my currency compared to February, not nearly matching the concomitant 15% relative hike in BRL currency value. So I presume the host receives more reais to help offset the burden of inflation. What limits the comparison, however, is that I believe the host adjust rates seasonally. 

Oddly, the price differential for 2 separate 5-day bookings in the same Rio hotel within the same month February, almost consecutive by time of month, was 21% so I think other seasonal or seemingly random price factors make it difficult to price compare according to currency value changes. That said, the upcoming summer rate is the same as the higher of the 2 February rates. 

[speedoo1]

19 hours ago, scott456 said:

I suspect many hotels and AirBNB apartments are priced in USD, then converted/adjusted back to Reais (Brazil) or Pesos(Mexico).  Hence, the value of your dollars does not change much.

At least for Airbnb the host will enter the price in local currency (rather than USD or EUR) so the guest will have to pay more (in foreign currency) when e.g. Reais get stronger. Hence Airbnb apartments in Brazil have become more expensive based on the unfavourable exchange rate alone. 

As for hotels, it might be correct, however, I doubt many hotels will accept to receive fewer Reais for a hotel room just because Reais is getting stronger, so it will enevitably lead to hotels rooms getting priced higher (in foreign currency).

[speedoo1]

18 hours ago, Riobard said:

The Rio apartment I rent will be 2% more this summer (not defined school holiday period where demand may be higher) in my currency compared to February, not nearly matching the concomitant 15% relative hike in BRL currency value. So I presume the host receives more reais to help offset the burden of inflation. What limits the comparison, however, is that I believe the host adjust rates seasonally. 

Most Airbnb listings in Brazil have higher rates for high season in February than in June-Aug. so I would expect your rate in Reais to be lower for the summer than what you paid in February, however, due to the unfavourable exchange rate you actually see it as a rate increase. To check you would need to select rates to be listed in Reais rather than your currency in the Airbnb app/webpage (but you may not have access to how your Airbnb listing was priced in Reais in February if you paid in your currency).

Admittedly, it can't be ruled out that Airbnb hosts are using the current stronger demand for travel and accommodation to adjust their rates upwards (in fact very likely).

[Riobard]

5 hours ago, speedoo1 said:

Most Airbnb listings in Brazil have higher rates for high season in February than in June-Aug. so I would expect your rate in Reais to be lower for the summer than what you paid in February, however, due to the unfavourable exchange rate you actually see it as a rate increase. To check you would need to select rates to be listed in Reais rather than your currency in the Airbnb app/webpage (but you may not have access to how your Airbnb listing was priced in Reais in February if you paid in your currency).

Admittedly, it can't be ruled out that Airbnb hosts are using the current stronger demand for travel and accommodation to adjust their rates upwards (in fact very likely).

A lot of moving parts. Some Airbnb listings’ duration-based discounts have a fee structure system in which merely one additional unused booked night can lower the average of actual use. Such variables themselves can obscure currency and inflation factors. But my go-to is qualitatively equivalent to my booking in Switzerland that is 3 times the cost of the Rio one. As it’s often said: money is money. But it brings to mind that we should considering lobbying for multiple-use get-one-free punch-hole cards when our holes are punched. Think of the untapped $ obsession potential. 

[babybear2]

On 4/20/2022 at 2:11 PM, davet said:

There is no normal rate. It is what it is. You can do a cost-of-living or purchasing power parity comparison but that's only in broad strokes, with lots of inconsistencies. Even the famous "Big Mac Index," in my view, is distortive because what's low-brow fast food in the US is considered an exotic luxury in other countries. 

FYI, when the real was born, it was 1:1 with the dollar, so that was what's intended to be "normal." When I first went to Brazil, a few years later, the rate crashed to almost 3:1 with, shockingly, no inflation. Brazil was insanely cheap then. Foolish me paid 50R for os garotos when I later surmised the going rate was closer to 20-30R. Looking back now, why didn't I just move to Brazil for a couple years?! 

Exactly, nowadays, the going rate is 150 + 50 tips, roughly equal to 40 USD

I would not call this super expensive, but it is definitely not cheap either 

[KeepItReal]

5 minutes ago, babybear2 said:

Exactly, nowadays, the going rate is 150 + 50 tips, roughly equal to 40 USD

I would not call this super expensive, but it is definitely not cheap either 

I don't know, that I'd pretty cheap - even when compared with other developing countries. During a recent trip to South Africa, Turkey and Thailand, 40 USD didn't get me very far. 🤷‍♂️ That being said, the quality was excellent. 

[Novarunner]

On 4/5/2022 at 9:48 PM, babybear2 said:

Brazil is a expensive country except the sauna 

Huh…?  When I am in Brazil, I eat almost all of my meals in restaurants and regularly spend money on “activities” with the fine young gentlemen that I continue to meet there.  In America, I do not eat out constantly and my “activities” budget is zero yet - and I am completely serious when I say this - I think vacationing in Brazil is less expensive than living in America.  In any case, if you really do think Brazil is expensive, I strongly suggest you avoid NYC, San Francisco, Washington, DC, London, Paris, etc.

[Novarunner]

New question: Due to some events you may have read about in the newspaper over the past two years, it’s been a while since I’ve been to Thailand.  Aside from the fact that Brazil is a shorter flight and the language is something I could actually possibly maybe have a for real big boy conversation in one day are “activities” with the locals more or less expensive in Brazil than in Thailand?

[Guest]

On recent trip - I stayed in a 5 star hotel with tons of extra amenities/services/free meals & cocktails,etc for $200 a night.  by comparison, same hotel would be double/triple at least in US and I’ve never seen so many complimentary extras.  All the restaurants were much less expensive than US (at least 50% less or more) with better quality and better service. And the boys - $300 reais for a full one hour at my hotel.  My comparison is $300US for a full one hour here - Brazil is 25% of that for a full hour. It s still a bargain, but that may change with a new President and economic recovery.  Which is a good thing for the Brazilian people.  Lula did the economic turnaround once before and a Brazil became very expensive.  Go now while you can.  Looks like they aren’t getting another wave of Covid - too many people fully vaxd to have same same impact as here.

[scott456]

Absolutely, and when you eat at restaurants in Brazil, there is no "mandatory" tips to the waiters (unless you go to some tourist traps) . So you are saving extra 20%, compared to eating out in the U.S.

[floridarob]

9 hours ago, scott456 said:

Absolutely, and when you eat at restaurants in Brazil, there is no "mandatory" tips to the waiters (unless you go to some tourist traps) . So you are saving extra 20%, compared to eating out in the U.S.

many restaurants automatically put 10% on the bill as service charge, very common.

 

 

16 hours ago, Novarunner said:

in one day are “activities” with the locals more or less expensive in Brazil than in Thailand?

Thailand is inexpensive for many things, great hotels, dining, massage......but many go-go's and such expect so much more $ and many deliver mediocre sex, not all but the % of great sex is very low when compared to Brasil. No disrespect to the older readers, but thai boys like to get paid for doing nothing and are used to the older farang that pays them to cuddle and suck them off AND pay absurd money for long time, which is just them sleeping with you, smh....Brasillains are hot and sex machines, no comparison.

We all need change sometime, that why I continue to go to Asia and even whores like Namazu are finally making a return trip to the LOS 😆

[Novarunner]

3 hours ago, floridarob said:

many restaurants automatically put 10% on the bill as service charge, very common.

 

 

Thailand is inexpensive for many things, great hotels, dining, massage......but many go-go's and such expect so much more $ and many deliver mediocre sex, not all but the % of great sex is very low when compared to Brasil. No disrespect to the older readers, but thai boys like to get paid for doing nothing and are used to the older farang that pays them to cuddle and suck them off AND pay absurd money for long time, which is just them sleeping with you, smh....Brasillains are hot and sex machines, no comparison.

We all need change sometime, that why I continue to go to Asia and even whores like Namazu are finally making a return trip to the LOS 😆

I do miss massage in Thailand.  In fact, that and as you said “we all need change” are the reason I have started to think about making a trip halfway around the world sometime later this year.  I couldn’t agree with you more though, the chance of mediocre sex in Thailand is much higher than in Brazil.  I learned to deal with it but I also never really liked the “it’s up to you” payment philosophy in Thailand.  I’m so glad that’s not a part of the culture in Brazil.  It also seems that the number of guys that just want to fuck a middle aged American for nothing in return is exponentially higher in Brazil than in Thailand.

[Mavica]

On 4/1/2022 at 11:43 AM, babybear2 said:

I took a look at USD to reais rate when preparing for next trip to brazil, and found usd to reais dropped so much over the past few months from 5.6 to 4.7

Is there a way for us to hedge reais while the rate is favorable?  

When I first traveled to Brazil in 2008 or 2009, I'm recalling that the exchange rate was less than 2.00 to the USD.  So, for some of us, valuation is relative to historical reference.  

There's been a lot of discussion regarding what "value", "benefit" we receive from patronizing garotos for price asked / price paid.  The question doesn't arise just in Brazil, but in the DR, Thailand and elsewhere.

I've traveled worldwide, extensively - including to Thailand, Mexico, Brazil, Western and Eastern Europe, etc., etc.  I've lived in Canada and Mexico ... as well as my home country: the USA.

I have limited times to travel, I'm a single guy ... and I want what I want, when I want.  I started "offing" guys in my 30's, in Chicago.  It wasn't because I didn't have great sex otherwise, but when I was in a bar known for hustlers to frequent and I saw a guy I wanted ... I bought.  If you knew "Rounds" in Midtown NYC in the '70s/80s, that was a venue I found fertile grounds.

For me ... Brazil offers the best value for my money spent ... in particular, for garotos working the saunas (even when considering oftentimes high airfares from the USA).  US Dollar-equivalent of $30, 40, 50 is still bargain-basement pricing for services rendered. IMO.  Finding equivalent quality - fitting my personal preferences - in the USA or elsewhere as I find in Rio de Janeiro - eludes me.  I've enjoyed visits to Thailand, but I haven't found equivalent physical attractions as I have in Rio.  The DR?  I've only been there a couple of times and struck-out finding someone (other than a couple of no-charge guys at Cabarete).  However, knowing that there are individuals in the SDQ such as Manny holds the prospect of a successful future trip.

A procurer serves a useful purpose for many travelers.  For some of us, travel times are abbreviated and time is of the essence, language can be a barrier, the destination is unfamiliar, etc., and whatever the "finder's fee" is can be well worth the cost.

Hotel costs in Rio can be reasonable in comparison to other places I travel, and I almost always eat in a por kilo restaurant - at which I find good value.  Yes, Thailand offers reasonable/ attractive accommodation / food costs, as does Mexico - it's also an expensive ride from the the East Coast USA.  Most Thai guys I've met in the past would, today, no longer hold my interest - physically speaking.  I enjoy many relationships when in Mexico -  a favorite destination for me - for guys not looking for cash (I lived in Mexico City for 6 years). I'll be in Mexico City again at the end of this week.  Ireland/England/France are higher priced for everything and it's been a long time since I've found satisfying sex opportunities there.  The DR has been an easy pay for accommodation / restaurant / transportation services.

Preferences, budgets, time available to travel ... vary by individual.  There's really no right or wrong - each of us does what we think is best ... for us, not for someone else.

[babybear2]

On 5/7/2022 at 5:22 PM, Novarunner said:

Huh…?  When I am in Brazil, I eat almost all of my meals in restaurants and regularly spend money on “activities” with the fine young gentlemen that I continue to meet there.  In America, I do not eat out constantly and my “activities” budget is zero yet - and I am completely serious when I say this - I think vacationing in Brazil is less expensive than living in America.  In any case, if you really do think Brazil is expensive, I strongly suggest you avoid NYC, San Francisco, Washington, DC, London, Paris, etc.

Well, I happen to live in one of the expensive cities you mentioned 

Maybe I am just too poor, sigh