Every country has inflation, except Thailand

[abidismaili]

Why does Thailand have such low (0% effectively) inflation? And as good as all other countries have always a few percentage points year on year inflation?

The baht bus in Pattaya is for years now 10 baht. These drivers have still the same purchasing power apparently. Or they really have become poorer compared to 2014 when I first arrived and it was also 10 baht

In these 8 years public transport prices in the Netherlands have significantly increased. 

[Patanawet]

Abi.  have you not tried  buying eggs, vegetables, water,--anything you daily need to live here recently?
All UP.
The government does put caps on certain items that look as if there is going to be a shortage, recently eggs and pork for example but I read yesterday that next month electricity  prices will increase.
Yes, it is strange that taxis, motor bike taxis have remained at a constant price (actually, here in Bangkok at least, they are government regulated).

[abidismaili]

If this is true (I can’t really judge since I don’t live here and short time price for boy is same as in 2014. Almost everything I need appears more or less the same: except drink prices gogo bars) then it can only mean the baht bus drivers are now poorer than in 2014

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, abidismaili said:

.. short time price for boy is same as in 2014

for those who try to economize

[abidismaili]

3 hours ago, vinapu said:

for those who try to economize

I don’t try to economise. I never heard that it is too low. In Pattaya I pay 1500 for short time and 1000 for massage tip if there was happy ending. That has for me not changed since 2014. What are the normal prices then now ?

[vinapu]

4 hours ago, abidismaili said:

I don’t try to economise. I never heard that it is too low. In Pattaya I pay 1500 for short time and 1000 for massage tip if there was happy ending. That has for me not changed since 2014. What are the normal prices then now ?

sorry but I did not mean you are stingy, my choice of words was poor perhaps.

What I meant is that while in 2014 1000 was almost universally  acceptable , now one wishing to pay just this may do some leg work to get such economy find. Of course pandemic derailed market situation and out of desperation guys may go for even less - in Dec I had few cases when 2000 LT was asked for and not only in Pattaya 

If you paid 1500 for short time in Pattaya back in 2014 you were very generous than. Even now 1000-1500 is in scale from acceptable to generous ST tip, the same 1000 for 1hr massage with happy ending 

[fedssocr]

and BKK taxis have had the same 35 baht base rate forever too. I've never understood how any of them make a living either

[Guest]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

Even now 1000-1500 is in scale from acceptable to generous ST tip, the same 1000 for 1hr massage with happy ending 

Somewhere in the middle of that range is absolutely fine in Pattaya and will be received with a smile.  The lad will also be chasing you for another off.

I've not tipped as low as 1000 for several years, but in principle I might still pay that to an exceptionally poor performer.  

Elsewhere, someone recently stated the going rate for short time in Pattaya is 1500.   However, in other posts the same person said he hasn't offed someone for years as he lives with a boyfriend.   The guy who hasn't offed anyone for years won't have experienced those phone app discussions where, for example,  the other guy is the first to mention money and he opens the discussion by asking for 1200.  

Anyone new to Pattaya might prefer to take advice off someone like Vinapu, with recent experience of the market, rather than someone else passing on rumours.

Tips seem to be higher in Bangkok.

As for inflation, well it's very evident in drink prices.

[vinapu]

6 hours ago, fedssocr said:

and BKK taxis have had the same 35 baht base rate forever too. I've never understood how any of them make a living either

somehow they do. I'm surprised how often taxi I stop is not interested in going to a place I'm heading to  and I'm not  going to any God forsaken places in wee hours.

My suspicion is drivers don't know city that well and don't want to go to a place they don't know even if it's generally known place like Golden Mount or Suriwong ( two examples I recall taxi stopped wouldn't go, luckily there's always another one in 30 seconds or so )

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, z909 said:

 

As for inflation, well it's very evident in drink prices.

and off fees

[abidismaili]

Yes off fees and drink prices have gone up. Drinks more. But I don’t really count this as part of normal inflation. It is because there are less customers for the bars. It is not an inflation for the average Thai. Does a bottle of cola in a supermarket now cost a lot more also than in 2014?

Maybe these baht bus drivers and taxi drivers receive part of their income from the government? So government keeps these low fixed prices, but if there really is significant inflation in Thailand over this period, then these drivers must get some government compensation. Else I don’t understand at all how they can make a living. 

[Guest]

8 hours ago, vinapu said:

and off fees

Yes, both drink prices and off fees have gone up.

When I first went to Thailand, the drinks and off fees were at a reasonable level.    The gogo boys would all be in underwear and it wasn't difficult to find a bar with a very good selection.  I walked into Classic Boys for the first time and thought I was in paradise.    Also, the competition from internet dating wasn't the same.  Whilst Gay Romeo was in existence, I didn't even take any laptop or other device to connect to the internet, so had to go to an internet cafe for that.  Admittedly I had a netbook for the next trip.

So the bars had reasonable prices, good entertainment and the alternative of internet dating wasn't as established.   OK, cruising was good fun, but rather hit & miss. So there were lots of offs from bars.

Now fast forward to 2022.  Just as the competition of online dating has increased, the gay gogo bars have responded by deleting the entertainment & dressing their boys in jeans.   So there's no reason to stay in the bar buy a drink.    

In fact, if the boys are in jeans, I refuse to be a customer on principle.    (Some might argue that the bars are not allowed to provide entertainment, but if we take the example of Fresh Boys, I had a very quick look through the door several times on this trip.    The mostly had boys in jeans and later on they had a "show", with some guy wearing some kind of "sari".   Surely the sari nonsense is supposed to be entertainment ?     Even if it's not the type of entertainment I prefer)

My complaint is not so much the drink prices, but also deleting the entertainment, so the reason to pay high prices is no longer valid.

 

Of course, all this decreases my personal inflation rate, as I've not bought a drink in a Bangkok gogo bar for over a year and it's over 2 years since I offed someone.   I can watch boys in jeans on the street, so there's no need to visit a gogo bar to see the same thing.     I can find boys to meet on the apps.

 

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, z909 said:

 

 

Of course, all this decreases my personal inflation rate, 

 

you ere bringing up very good point, we all have our own inflation rate depending on our own consumption style , not only in Thailand and not only in respect of  guys there but in our daily lives as well. Person driving is affected by rise in petrol prices right away while one using public transport is comfortable until next fire rise. By that time petrol prices could go down and personal inflation process is kind of reversed.

[abidismaili]

There is indeed inflation. Going Bangkok today.  Taking bus from Pattaya to Ekkamai is now 119 baht. During my last trip 2.5 years ago it was 108 baht. A 10% inflation in 2.5 years. I have to re-title the topic to “huge inflation in Thailand”. 
 

All the more surprising the baht bus is still 10 baht. In the 1987 I read it was 5 baht. In 2014 it was 10 and I suspect it was it then for quite some time already. 

[reader]

From The Straits Times

Thailand's higher production costs may soon be passed on to consumers

The war in Ukraine has increased production and manufacturing costs that could soon trickle down to consumers already feeling the brunt of higher energy and consumer goods prices since late last year.

Thailand's headline inflation rate rose 5.28 per cent in February from a year earlier, which was stronger than expected and the highest level since September 2008.

Thailand's trade with Russia and Ukraine makes up just US$3 billion (S$4.08 billion), with total exports and imports amounting to a mere 0.5 per cent and 0.9 per cent of total trade respectively.

But prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24, prices of jasmine rice, palm oil, rubber and live pigs had been on the up, as Thailand attempted to recover from pandemic-induced disruptions and a weak economy.

[Patanawet]

8 hours ago, abidismaili said:

There is indeed inflation. Going Bangkok today.  Taking bus from Pattaya to Ekkamai is now 119 baht. During my last trip 2.5 years ago it was 108 baht. A 10% inflation in 2.5 years. I have to re-title the topic to “huge inflation in Thailand”. 
 

All the more surprising the baht bus is still 10 baht. In the 1987 I read it was 5 baht. In 2014 it was 10 and I suspect it was it then for quite some time already. 

Don't be silly.

[Guest]

Inflation needs to be averaged.  To measure inflation on one bus route is nonsense.

10% in 2 years on one bus fare is approximately 5% per year.    The bus from Jomtien to Suvarnabhumi is the same price as 2 years ago, so 0%.

Baht bus fare inflation = 0%

Hotel price inflation is about -50% in some cases (temporarily).

The inflation probably arrives later, when tourist demand picks up and lots of businesses serving tourists have closed.

 

[pong2]

In my experience in TH prices for normal things do not rise a little bit every year-as they mostly do in other places, but every 4-5 years with a bigger leap.

So a busfare does not go like 10->11->12 etc, but in 1 leap from 10 to 15. That makes it easier for giving chnage etc.

My first trip to TH: the standard streetside meals where then all 20 bt, last time I was (now 2 yrs ago) mostly 40-45. BKK citybus was then 2 bt and now 8 (for the clapped out non-AC)

[reader]

It's becoming an increasingly good time to visit Thailand if you're drawn by bargains in accommodations and favorable exchange rates.

According to Bloomberg, the baht is under pressure from a rare, back-to-back current accounts deficit.

From Bloomberg

The pandemic has robbed Thailand of tens of billions of dollars it used to generate annually from the millions of foreign tourists. A gradual rebound in tourism with the lifting of most border controls is now at risk from flight disruptions and payment difficulties for Russians, once again leaving the nation’s currency vulnerable to a sell-off.

Thailand’s status as a net oil importer is fueling a trade deficit and inflation, muddling the outlook for an economic recovery, said Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist at Bank of Ayudhya. The lender, a unit of Mitsubishi Financial Group Inc., has cut Thai growth forecast this year to 2.8% as it sees a hit from low tourist arrivals and supply disruptions from the war, he said.   

“It will be a double-whammy for Thailand as it faces rising inflation and a slowdown in the economy,” Somprawin said. “Tourism will be affected as it’s not only Russians who will not travel, as the sour sentiment and falling income will discourage others too. Thai economic outlook is worrisome.”

Thailand’s tourism will not return to the pre-pandemic levels -- 40 million visitors and more than $60 billion in revenue -- without the Chinese, who made up almost 30% of the travelers. While the country has lifted most of the curbs on visitors, Covid tests on arrival and the paperwork to secure a pre-arrival visa are seen discouraging holidaymakers even as more tourism-reliant countries open up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-22/thailand-faces-current-account-blowout-on-oil-tourism-risks

[Guest]

1 hour ago, reader said:

According to Bloomberg, the baht is under pressure from a rare, back-to-back current accounts deficit.

I don't understand currency markets.

Thailand might have a temporary current account deficit, partly due to idiotic rules shutting down it's travel industry, presumably to keep out a virus that's already in Thailand.

Meanwhile, the other country represented on the chart has had enormous permanent current account deficits for decades & has been printing off money like crazy.    This seems to not matter much.   So far.

 

Or perhaps it's the Bloomberg analysis that I understand even less than the currency markets ?  

There are 2 currencies in every currency pair.  The direction of the graph changes about the time Putin invaded Ukraine.   Remarkably, despite all the money creation, the USD is still the world's reserve currency and has strengthened since the invasion.  

I think people still buy dollars when scared.  The dollar has also strengthened against the Euro since the war started. 

[reader]

And when the war ends, they'll be looking around for a better place to park their cash.

And when Thailand eliminates the Thai pass and test-and-go, tourists will again flock to its shores, the hotel bargains will gradually go south and the baht will reverse it's slide that began last June.

Although these numbers have very likely increased in over last few years, investors continue to buy their bonds. They're evidently confident in the ability of these nations to meet their financial obligations.

Brazil at first glance may seem to be the outlier of the group. However the ever increasing numbers of board members choosing to return there are apparently propping up confidence in the economy. 😉