How war is reshaping the world’s travel industry

[reader]

From The Thaiger / CNN

Russians were the most visible travellers heading to Thailand post February 1, 2022, when the Thailand Pass Test & Go option was rebooted. Even with its 2 days of pre-booked SHA+ quarantine and PCR tests, along with US$50,000 Covid insurance (which has since been reduced to $20,000), the Russian travellers were delighted to jump on a plane and take the long trip to the much warmer Land of Smiles.

That situation has now radically changed and the world is reverberating to the full impact of Russia’s aggression and the invasion of Ukraine.

Now there’s a mere trickle of daily flights between Russia and either Suvarnabhumi or Phuket in Thailand. Whilst much of the rest of the world have said ’nyet’ to the arrival of any planes from Russia, Thailand is still allowing them to arrive. But even if the planes are still coming (albeit in vastly reduced numbers), the pressure of world sanctions, bans and the plunge of the Russian Ruble has already made the decision for any potential Russian travellers.

Now, the latest data from ForwardKeys, shows that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, now into its 9th day, has prompted an instant spike in flight cancellations to and from Russia, worldwide. On the day after the first tanks rolled into Ukraine, every booking that was made for travel to Russia was outweighed by six cancellations of existing bookings.

Russians escaping their bleak winter and heading to sunnier destinations were suddenly cancelling their trips. The cancellation rates between February 24 – 26 were Cyprus (300%), Egypt (234%), Turkey (153%), the UK (153%), Armenia (200%), and Maldives (165%).

Bookings for March, April and May were already reaching 32% of the pre-Covid levels of travel for outbound Russians. They were heading to Mexico, Seychelles, Eygpt and Maldives. And Thailand.

The outlook for Q3 this year was looking even stronger.

All that Russian travel enthusiasm has now collapsed and, given the harsh economic weapons thrown at Vladimir Putin, his banks, his ‘friends’ and his citizens, any recovery will be a long, long way down the track. Even if there was a swift and unexpected reversal of the Ukraine situation, Russia has already been dealt a fatal economic blow – in just one week the country been turned into a pariah state and much of the rest of the world seems happy to punish the entire country for Putin’s violence.

For countries like the Seychelles, Maldives and Cyprus, Russian arrivals represented a high percentage of their international arrivals. In Thailand that was about 8% of the total tourist mix. And, whilst the Chinese are still in China for at least the rest of this year, the loss of the Russian travel market probably represented an even higher percentage of tourists that won’t be coming to Thailand in 2022.

The world travel industry will be further hit by rising airfares (due to the sharp surge in oil prices), cancellations of routes (across Eastern Europe), a higher resistance to international travel (for perceived safety reasons) and a lingering instability in world politics.

While the Thailand Pass is still seen by many potential travellers as a significant barrier to their choice of Thailand as their next travel destination, and the Russian and Chinese traveller-tap turned off, Thailand’s immediate travel future looks bleak. And this follows nearly 2 years of border closures, false restarts, over-hyped TAT arrival projections and the former Thai tourism workforce heading home to find other work.

The loss of the Russian travellers underscores a critical need for the Thai government to quickly modify the Thailand Pass, or scrap it completely. With so many other factors now making international travel difficult, Thailand will have to rethink their short to medium term tourism strategies to retain its share of the international travel market.

Of course there is no comparison of the humanitarian tragedy underway inside the borders of Ukraine at this time, but Russia’s aggression will likely have much more long-term, and far-reaching, effects than the clear and present danger it poses on the Ukranian nation right now.

[JKane]

7 hours ago, reader said:

From The Thaiger / CNN

For countries like the Seychelles, Maldives and Cyprus, Russian arrivals represented a high percentage of their international arrivals. 

 

Hmm... this brings up an interesting question... are there places that are unusual destinations for the US and West that are now particularly affordable?  Are they worthwhile, safe, and are any especially gay friendly?  I don't see Maldives or the Seychelles mentioned in the Africa forum...?

[reader]

Maldives or the Seychelles I think are more family and couples oriented and not exactly affordable.

Christianpfc has a blog site where he has reported on his recent long-time stay in Cambodia. As I recall, he found it affordable, relatively safe but not on a par with Thailand. I believe he used the apps a lot.

[tassojunior]

2 hours ago, reader said:

Maldives or the Seychelles I think are more family and couples oriented and not exactly affordable.

Christianpfc has a blog site where he has reported on his recent long-time stay in Cambodia. As I recall, he found it affordable, relatively safe but not on a par with Thailand. I believe he used the apps a lot.

Won't Russians just head to Vietnam instead which is cheaper? I have a friend ("Velvety") from Prague who worked in Vietnam because he spoke Russian which is a huge portion of tourists in Vietnam. Otherwise they tend to go to Turkey and Tunisia a lot. The southern Black Sea coast of Turkey has been solid Russian tourists in summer for a long time. I'm wondering if the Helsinki-St. Petersburg ferry that doesn't require a visa will be open this summer. 

 

[reader]

Yes, they very well may when Vietnam reopens to international tourism on March 15. Cambodia reopened last October.

I don't know if Vietnam is necessarily cheaper than Cambodia. With the rouble depreciating by the moment, I can understand why that will be a major consideration for Russian tourists.

[macaroni21]

From the New York Times yesterday,

Quote

Separately, Russia’s aviation authority, Rosaviatsiya, recommended on Saturday that Russian airlines with planes registered in foreign jurisdictions suspend all flights abroad from Sunday because of fears that they could be seized by foreign governments.

Following this, Aeroflot said it would suspend all international flights starting from 8 March 2022. Other Russian airlines are expected to follow suit. The problem seems to be that many (most?) planes are leased and when the Russian companies are unable to pay leasing fees, the leasing companies may seize them as soon as they land in a foriegn country. 

Quote

According to IBA, an aviation consulting firm, there are nearly 600 foreign-owned planes currently leased to airlines in Russia. Those planes are worth an estimated $12 billion, about a third of which belongs to Irish lessors, according to Ishka, another aviation consulting firm. AerCap, which is based in Dublin, is the most exposed, with an estimated 142 leased aircraft in Russia, according to IBA. The company is the world’s largest leasing company for commercial planes and its customers include Aeroflot and Rossiya.

In any case, with Boeing and Airbus not supplying spare parts, it is doubtful if the planes could have been kept flying safely for long. This shouldn't stop Russian tourists from taking other airlines such as Emirates or Air China, though, but then there are still the questions of the exchange rate and payments systems. MasterCard and Visa has suspended use of Russian-bank-issued cards outside of Russia. But this little snippet from BBC is interesting:

Quote

Several Russian banks also suggested that they would start issuing cards that use the Chinese UnionPay system, coupled with Russia's Mir payment network, to avoid any impact for consumers.

 

[JKane]

+1 to everything macaroni21 said above, which I basically just re-wrote then glanced up:

It's actually much worse than suspended flights/airspace restrictions for Russia.  They have practically no civilian aerospace industry left.  Almost all of Aeroflot's aircraft are Boeing or Airbus.  Half of them were leased.  The leases have stipulations for return of the equipment for sanctions specifically (as well as non-payment) and they suddenly have zero replacement parts availability.  Also no access to repair bases on foreign soil (one of Aeroflot's largest was in Germany).

[Guest]

On 3/6/2022 at 1:09 AM, reader said:

I don't know if Vietnam is necessarily cheaper than Cambodia. With the rouble depreciating by the moment, I can understand why that will be a major consideration for Russian tourists.

The Hotels in Thailand are better value than in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia or Vietnam.     

OK, some of the other expenses may be higher in Thailand, but it takes quite a bit of expenditure to recover the higher cost of the hotels.

[Moses]

On 3/6/2022 at 12:44 PM, macaroni21 said:

Several Russian banks also suggested that they would start issuing cards that use the Chinese UnionPay system, coupled with Russia's Mir payment network, to avoid any impact for consumers.

UnionPay has about 16% of Russian card market, almost every ATM serves it. MIR cards have about 75% of adult Russians - it is default "salary card" here (free, minimum of commissions, 2-3 times higher cashback in comparation with VISA or MC), 62% of b2c and c2c economies are cashless because of it. 

Besides Russian banks, about 20 Chinese banks are working here.

[Moses]

51 minutes ago, z909 said:

The Hotels in Thailand are better value than in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia or Vietnam.     

OK, some of the other expenses may be higher in Thailand, but it takes quite a bit of expenditure to recover the higher cost of the hotels.

Can't agree about hotels in VN. In VN you can easy find 4**** hotel in front of the beach with rooftop pool and bar for $50-60 including breakfasts for 2 persons, sea view room with balcony. This goal is unreachable in TH.

[macaroni21]

From reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/thousands-russians-stuck-thailand-sanctions-kick-2022-03-08/

Thousands of Russians stuck in Thailand as sanctions kick in

BANGKOK, March 8 (Reuters) - Thousands of tourists from Russia are currently stranded in Thailand, officials said on Tuesday, as unprecedented Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine put a squeeze on Russians struggling to find flights and finances.

Flight cancellations, a rouble currency in free-fall and payment problems from Russian banks being cut off from the global SWIFT system has left more than 7,000 Russians in limbo in locations like Phuket, Koh Samui, Pattaya and Krabi, Thailand's tourism authority chief said.

"We have to be good hosts and take care of everybody," Yuthasak Supasorn told Reuters.

"There are still Russian tourists on their way here," he added.

Russia's embassy in Bangkok did not immediately respond to request for comment on its citizens.

In 2019, Thailand received 1.4 million Russian visitors. In January, it counted about 23,000 Russians, representing about a fifth of the total arrivals.

About half of those stranded were on the island of Phuket.

"We've asked hotels to reduce prices and extend their stays," Phuket's tourism association president Bhummikitti Ruktaengam said.

Some visitors, when able, had used China's UnionPay after cards issued by Russian banks using U.S. payment firms Visa (V.N) and Mastercard stopped working, he said.
Visa and Mastercard announced on Saturday they were suspending operations in Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has called its actions there a "special operation".

Though Thailand was among 141 countries that backed a United Nations resolution calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops, it has not imposed any sanctions on Moscow.

Bhummikitti said hundreds of people from Ukraine were also stranded, mainly due to airport closures there.

He said efforts were being made to get stranded Russians onto flights to Moscow on Middle Eastern airlines and to arrange repatriation flights.
A proposal was being considered to allow the use of cryptocurrency for payments at hotels, flights and other businesses in Phuket, he said.
 

[tassojunior]

I suspect as much as Russians like to vacation, MasterCard and Visa may have shot themselves in the foot in this war and Russians (and probably others) will be dumping them for the Chinese card or even better some politically-neutral card. 

I'm wondering how all those world's best gay Russians on Chaterbate, F4F and OnlyFans are getting paid.

Also about that visa-free ferry from Helsinki to St Pete this summer. 

And most of the routes I'm taking US to central Europe this summer seem a lot cheaper and faster on Turkish with a stop in Instanbul. Weird that Turkish seems like a "safer" bet than other airlines right now.

[scott456]

8 minutes ago, tassojunior said:

I suspect as much as Russians like to vacation, MasterCard and Visa may have shot themselves in the foot in this war and Russians (and probably others) will be dumping them for the Chinese card or even better some politically-neutral card. 

I'm wondering how all those world's best gay Russians on Chaterbate, F4F and OnlyFans are getting paid.

Also about that visa-free ferry from Helsinki to St Pete this summer. 

What Chinese card?

[tassojunior]

6 minutes ago, scott456 said:

What Chinese card?

UnionPay

[vinapu]

9 hours ago, tassojunior said:

 

I'm wondering how all those world's best gay Russians on Chaterbate, F4F and OnlyFans are getting paid.

Also about that visa-free ferry from Helsinki to St Pete this summer. 

 

pressing issues indeed  while Ukraine is bombed 

[JKane]

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

pressing issues indeed  while Ukraine is bombed 

 

Anybody suddenly not being able to pay rent or for basic necessities is a concern, especially our fellow gays already in a bad situation under a very anti-gay regime.  

Hopefully the citizens of Russia decide they've had enough and the oligarchs back them to oust Putin.  But making average Russian citizens suffer and cutting them off from funds and non-state controlled news may be counter-productive.  

[reader]

6 hours ago, JKane said:

Hopefully the citizens of Russia decide they've had enough and the oligarchs back them to oust Putin.  But making average Russian citizens suffer and cutting them off from funds and non-state controlled news may be counter-productive.  

Sanctions can impose harsh conditions that punish a population but they don't, as we can see, deter aggression. And the super wealthy elite don' feel the pinch.

Even should the Russian people force the hand of Putin's oligarchs and generals and arrange his exit, there's no guarantee Putin's successor will be much better. But even that will not bring about an end to the destruction of Ukraine.

The truth is that only overwhelming force deters aggression. That's how the Axis powers were defeated the last time war on this scale took place in Euurope. I know it's not a popular notion but it's the only one that works. Sure, there's always the alternative of Ukraine capitulating in surrender. But that would leave Putin with the very prize he set out to claim in the first place. Then he could regroup and go about selecting his next targets of opportunity.

No one believes he's going to stop with Ukraine.  And NATO will still be facing the bully bear in its backyard. Maybe it will resort again to hand wringing and sanctions?

[JKane]

8 hours ago, reader said:

Sanctions can impose harsh conditions that punish a population but they don't, as we can see, deter aggression. And the super wealthy elite don' feel the pinch.

 

I think the Russian oligarchs are very much feeling the pinch, assets seized all over the world including their yachts and airplanes, inability to travel freely, domestic holdings down 50% or more in value so far...  International business ventures falling apart.  

There are no oligarchs in North Vietnam or Cuba, and as Putin threatens to take Russia in that direction they'd do well to remember it.  

How valuable is fighting (and eventually loosing) an endless war of occupation in whatever former eastern-block countries *not* part of Nato remain compared against all that's being lost?  

Their civil aviation about to drop to below third-world as they're *stealing* the aircraft and will not have any ability to ever properly maintain them again, nor ever purchase new aircraft again.  

[reader]

18 minutes ago, JKane said:

There are no oligarchs in North Vietnam ....

Actually there are six billionaires in the Republic of Vietnam, according to Forbes magazine. It's not the sleepy backwater it may have been regarded as a generation ago.

https://vietnamnet.vn/en/feature/the-latest-list-of-the-richest-people-in-vietnam-809407.html

[vinapu]

20 hours ago, JKane said:

 

 

But making average Russian citizens suffer and cutting them of non-state controlled news 

current regime is doing good job doing that already, war or no war

[JKane]

6 hours ago, reader said:

Actually there are six billionaires in the Republic of Vietnam, according to Forbes magazine. It's not the sleepy backwater it may have been regarded as a generation ago.

https://vietnamnet.vn/en/feature/the-latest-list-of-the-richest-people-in-vietnam-809407.html

 

Good point, sorry, meant North Korea.  

[Londoner]

We in the West  may be animated by the events in Ukraine; it's not the case in other countries, many of whom view the unpunished war-crimes committed by our governments in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine as no less reprehensible.  Some countries, particularly poorer ones who do not share our (and Ukraine's) ethnicity  are pointing out that while war-crimes committed on  white people are considered worthy of condemnation and punitive action, those perpetrated upon peoples with darker skins or different religions aren't.

[JKane]

Yeah, don't want to turn this into a meme thread but this one is so fucking perfect:

 

 

 

I mean I can never forgive her for "Who could've ever imagined?!".  (You--it was YOUR JOB to imagine as fucking NSA and you'd been to a briefing where an airplane flying into a high-rise was the fucking clipart on the cover you worthless POS.)  But this just proves how idiotic she is.  Does anybody at Fox remember things that happened more than 72 hours ago?  Do they even have object permanence?  

And the way Putin is now replaying our greatest hits, like Ukraine working on weapons of mass destruction and all...  

"This is different because it's being done to white people..." does seem to be prominent as well.  

[Londoner]

Crimes are assuredly being committed in Ukraine and there are more to come. However, I doubt anything similar to the total destruction of Fallujah will happen. Prisoner of war camps will be established but I doubt that they will be as bad as Abu Ghraib. Ukrainians are white Christians after all.

I notice that two  misleading photographs have been circulating on SM. One is of the destruction of a tower block that turns out to be the one hit by Israel in in Gaza . Another is of a little girl shouting at invading soldiers. Later it transpired it was of Ahmed Tahini, a Palestinian girl confronting Israeli soldiers outside her home.

According to western governments, some  but not all invasions are war-crimes.

 

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, Londoner said:

 

According to western governments, some  but not all invasions are war-crimes.

 

each side of very war has own propaganda directed mainly at own people, heroes for some are murderers for others and somebody's martyrs  are other people  terrorists.

Now our sympathy and support should be with object of aggression ,  people of Ukraine.

At some point in the future , say Sept 2042 when China invades Russia to claim Vladivostok and Siberia , our prayers and support will be with Russia but not now.