Pattaya can longer rely on elderly retiree expats

[reader]

From Pattaya Mail

By Barry Kenyon

While substantial Thai tourism will certainly resume once the pandemic subsides, the traditional expat market is already in steep decline. These are the guys who retired here on fixed pensions to enjoy the golden years before the prospect of the crematorium became a near-term possibility. Journalist Sarah Scuzzarello describes this group as “Elderly retirees enacting privilege over local people because of their superior wealth.”

The immigration bureau does not publish meaningful statistics and retirees can hide under several visa categories, not necessarily those labeled as such. But their numbers have shrunk from perhaps 400,000 ten years ago to a small fraction in 2022. Mostly Europeans, Brits and Scandinavians in particular, the retirees that remain are now mostly in their 70s or older. Thai lawyers these days deal with more enquiries about post-mortem probate than about how to get married here.

The reasons for the slump are many. An American media-sponsored survey in 2019 found that the main issues were the rising cost of living, fears that hospital treatment would bankrupt them and the fact that “Thailand isn’t what it used to be” for various reasons. These were mostly about traffic congestion, Chinese tour buses in Pattaya or overweight gogo dancers. Of course, the pandemic has encouraged the downward trend as few people consider resettlement abroad during an international health crisis. Desperate publicity about Brits stuck in Thai hospitals, dependent on crowd-funding to save their lives, has finally killed off the nonsense that the embassy will ride to the rescue.

Pattaya illustrates these themes very well. It is beyond debate that the retiree market has slumped and that bald heads and expanding waistlines dominate in the residual expat population. Of course some wealthy retirees are still around, but the nightlife centers such as Soi Buakhao are teeming with short-term tourists, “Covid” visa-extension perpetual survivors and budget-conscious retirees looking for food and drink bargains. Many of those remaining in Thailand claim to have nowhere else to go.

Meanwhile, the Thai tourist minister Phiphat Rathchakitprakarn has made it very clear that the welcome expats of the future will be high-net-worth individuals such as multi-millionaire pensioners, well-heeled investors and foreign professionals and executives who can transfer their work skills to boost the Thai economy. In return they will have a 10-year visa and the perk of avoiding three-monthly trips to immigration to report their whereabouts. Other bonuses are still under wraps.

Many doubt the scheme will work. But that’s not the point here. The squeeze is already on against retirees who think that 800,000 baht in the bank is a tremendous sum. That would disappear after a few days in the intensive care unit. The compulsory insurance net is slowly closing – howbeit with multiple loopholes for now – whilst the assumption that third parties and visa agents will be able for all time to arrange extensions of stay for those unable to fund themselves is speculative at best. Whatever Thailand’s future in international immigration, the traditional retiree is past his prime. Pattaya is no exception.

https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/news/pattaya-can-longer-rely-on-elderly-retiree-expats-388987

[Lonnie]

5 hours ago, reader said:

retiree market has slumped and that bald heads and expanding waistlines

I found Mr. Kenyon's attitude in this article very snotty and condescending and was very surprised upon investigation he is 79.

[Guest]

What isn't included:

1 Life expectancy is increasing and pensions pay out later, so it seems highly likely that the average age of expats and other retirees will increase.   Of course, those who save and invest can retire much earlier, but I think we're still a minority. 

If pensions pay out from 67 and people live to about 80, should we be surprised if the average age of retirees is above 70?

 

2 The numbers retiring to Thailand will be influenced by a large number of factors, including exchange rates, Thai immigration rules, available activities and alternative countries.

 

 

[reader]

12 hours ago, Lonnie said:

I found Mr. Kenyon's attitude in this article very snotty and condescending and was very surprised upon investigation he is 79.

It was a cheap shot. The author could have made his point without making the retirees the butt of a poor attempt at humor.

[thaiophilus]

Since the author is a retiree with a bald head and expanding waistline I'm not sure where the condescension is here.

 

[PeterRS]

13 hours ago, thaiophilus said:

Since the author is a retiree with a bald head and expanding waistline I'm not sure where the condescension is here.

I quite agree. Barry Kenyon has lived in Thailand for many years, has been involved with the British Embassy for 25 years and for much of that time was Britain's Honorary Consul in Pattaya. To suggest he does not know what the trends are in Pattaya is a bit ridiculous, in my view.

Whether he is correct in his assumptions only time will tell. What he realises is that Thailand is changing - and has been changing quite rapidly over the last decade and more. Inflation is now biting harder than before. The Immigration Department's ridiculous visa requirements re the 800,000/400,000 baht minimum untouchable in accounts remains nuts and has already seen retirees depart! Not everyone has pensions that would cover the 65,000 per month route. But then how long with that rate remain? It has been stable for many years. What's the betting that it will increase before long?

In Pattaya, there was a spell of a few years when Russians flooded to the city. Where are they now? Did many buy apartments for retirement? Are many retired there? Then there were the Chinese hordes. They are now stuck in China and no one has any idea when their travel restrictions will be eased. Willl Pattaya still be on their travel list? Or will the trend for travel to other destinations continue? I often wonder why there are not far more Japanese gay guys visiting Pattaya. Same with the south-east Asian gay market? Of course, some do visit. But I suspect few if any will consider Pattaya as a retirement option. And retirement is surely the key issue that Kenyon is discussing.

As for the western expats, surely time is running out? In the immediate future, air fares may remain attractive to stimulate demand. But in the longer term, they have to go up as airlines attempt to recover the massive losses of the last two years. Same with many hotels.

[reader]

It's not Barry Kenyon's knowledge of the trends in the Pattaya expat population, it's the manner in which he roundly characterized fellow expats.

It's a condescending attitude that some well-to-do expats exhibit from time to time when they refer to their less wealthy contemporaries. In his case it was the use of bald heads and expanding waistlines that served to belittle those long-time retirees. I think if he had to do it over again, he'd reconsider that description.

[Lucky]

I couldn't imagine retiring to Pattaya. I can barely tolerate a weekend there. (pre-Covid of course)

[PeterRS]

14 hours ago, reader said:

In his case it was the use of bald heads and expanding waistlines that served to belittle those long-time retirees.

You mean he is wrong in that description? In general I expect that is pretty accurate!

[Ruthrieston]

And here I am, retired to live in Pattaya just over ten years ago now. I was bald at 40, now 63 and although I have worked hard over the past year or so and lost 20 kilos, I still have a belly. So good to be a club member! 

I have a great deal of respect for Barry Kenyon, and always enjoy reading his articles. Let me assure you that he is in no way trying to belittle expats like me, probably just a little humour, with a hint of sarcasm. 

[thaiophilus]

Not so much sarcasm as self-deprecation?

I expect there's a web page somewhere that will try to explain the British sense of humour...