Travel in the Time of Omicron – A Saga

[Lucky]

1 hour ago, reader said:

Thank you, Curtis, for a tender--and at times poignant--account of your trip. You took us many places, including the storied Bamboo Bar at the Mandarin Oriental. I first learned about it in John Burdett's first Bangkok novel, "Bangkok Eight," in 2003.

 

 

Bangkok 8 is well worth reading for fans of Thailand.

[vinapu]

12 hours ago, CurtisD said:

Thank you, I am glad you have enjoyed it.  

I can't wait to see what Bangkok Guy organizes in the second half of the year.

only 5 more months and we will be in 2nd half

[CurtisD]

8 hours ago, Boy69 said:

Lovely report so poetic enjoyed it so much.

If you take my word be very cautious if you decide to move him to your country I heard too many sad stories of couples broke up because the Wester culture is a bit of a shock to Thai's whom could not addopt and returned to their country it's better to take things slowly and if you decide to move him to your home it's better to give him a period of experience before you two make any serious commitment to each other.

May I ask how Iong you know Bangkok Guy  ? How old is he ?

We have known each other four years and he is in his twenties.

 I am very cautious about this. First step is to help him achieve financial independence. 

[vinapu]

26 minutes ago, CurtisD said:

We have known each other four years and he is in his twenties.

 I am very cautious about this. First step is to help him achieve financial independence. 

I like it, at least it may leave lasting improvement to his life, even if things will not work out, good deed may

[westldnguy]

I’ve very much enjoyed reading about your trip over the last couple of weeks and am looking forward to hearing how things develop when you have an opportunity to return to Thailand 

in the meantime I’m off to read some of the older threads I’ve just found that describe some of your earlier encounters with Bangkok Guy

[a-447]

Giving the guys money is only a short-term fix.

Setting them up in business is a much better option. It's the old "give them a fishing rod, not fish" scenario.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, a-447 said:

Setting them up in business is a much better option. It's the old "give them a fishing rod, not fish" scenario.

For those with the aptitude, it's a better option.  Not all have that.

[Londoner]

I've tried three different projects with P; none have been successful commercially. The third was devastating; a shop in his village which sold bags and similar accessories. It was undercut by a market after a lot of money had been spent on it. Bluntly, it was too "posh" for an economically -depressed area. A costly failure.

I've never been a business man and so I'm of little help.

The current project is a small-holding a  few kms away. it is successful in that not much of  a profit is  expected. To me, the investment is worthwhile because it gives P purpose and interest. Good for the soul; and the farming work  is good for the body.

As long as he watches out for the snakes- the alpha predator in his district!

[spoon]

I wouldve been useless advisor for businesses too. My own strategy is very conservative investing majority of my savings in low risk funds. My strength has always been in the amount of savings i set aside for those funds. Of course i can afford to save as i made quite a good income from my jobs and i live in a country with a very low cost of living and my lifestyle are what most consider as frugal. Im not sure how this will be feasible for the boys though.

[reader]

Based on my observations of guys I've come know, the best predictor of stability and success outside of their pursuits in Bangkok is frugality. If they could live within their means--and avoid getting ensnared by lure of the illegal casino off Surawong road--they tended to survive the hardest economic impact of covid on their lives.

[CurtisD]

11 hours ago, Londoner said:

I've tried three different projects with P; none have been successful commercially.

It is incredibly difficult to create a successful small business. Watching Bangkok Guy's efforts over the last two years have really brought this home to me. He is smart and he wants to build a business, and I am keen to help him.  Whether or not this is enough to succeed, who knows. We will not know until we try. 

11 hours ago, Londoner said:

The current project is a small-holding a  few kms away.

This is my fall-back for Bangkok Guy. I think it is also his fall-back.

He did not use the money I gave him to purchase his great aunt's small plot to purchase the land, nor did he give it all to the family unit. He gave some to his mother, but he still has most of it in the bank "for business". Business is where his ambition is. 

[CurtisD]

3 hours ago, reader said:

Based on my observations of guys I've come know, the best predictor of stability and success outside of their pursuits in Bangkok is frugality.

It is foundational to wealth accreation.

The key point of the only book my parents ever gave me on financial management was that the surest way to accumulate wealth is to not dissapate it.

Actually it was my mother who gave me the book as she could see I took after my father, very able to make money and also very able to let it slip through my fingers. It has provided a necessary break on my behavior, albeit not as much of one as she desired. Bangkok Guy is much more in her mould. 

[spoon]

Ive always been frugal since young. Basically in my family, im probably the only one lol. Im sure its something that can be thought but most of it are habits. Based on your report, seems like bangkok guy is fitting those frugal molds hehe, and will do well if he has a good steady income.

I wonder if thailand banks gives a good return on interest? If not, is there a place where thai naitional can put their money in that is low risk but gives returns of around 4-5% and allow him to take his fund anytime? Then maybe its wise for him to put a portion of the business saving there. Anything higher than a normal saving accounts really.

 

[Guest]

Having a healthy saving ratio is one of the fundamental requirements for getting wealthy.  (Arguably every money boy should have a high saving ratio, as the successful ones will earn far in excess of the minimum wage, but only for a decade or so.  As far as I can tell, those who treat their customers well get repeat business and are doing quite nicely, even now. Which means they are earning a multiple of the minimum wage.

Conversely, those who get offed once and do nothing to deserve a repeat, tend to disappear from the scene after a few weeks)

Getting back to saving, there seems to be no satisfactory definition of risk.  The financial industry tends to use volatility as a measure of risk, but if holding long term, asset price volatility is almost irrelevant as a measure of risk.  Short term fluctuations don't matter, but permanent impairment does, eg a business failing or suffering a major and permanent loss.

In many countries, there are no "risk free" investments offering a 4-5% return and it's been like that since 2008.   You might earn 1% if you're lucky, whilst inflation has been 2-3% and that's recently increased.  So "risk free" investments have had negative returns. So certain failure.

In recent years, any country with a proper interest rate, significantly exceeding the rate of inflation has tended to have some doubts over the exchange rate, or something else wrong with it.  Over the last century, there have been numerous countries where bank deposits have lost a significant percentage or even almost all of their purchasing power due to iinflation. Bank deposits are not always safe.

I would argue that for anyone with a time horizon of 20 or more years, serious consideration has to be given to some conservative stock market investments.   Not speculation in Tesla, Rivian etc.   But investment in proper companies with sensible valuations.  Also, since we've had a long bull market, valuations remain crazy in some parts of the world and many countries are entering an interest rate tightening cycle. So ddon't immediately go from 0 % in the stock market to 100%.  

Perhaps 10% this year, 10% next year and so on.   Or try to increase the stock market investments when markets offer better value.  ie Increase the rate of purchases when PE ratios are sensible and the outlook is gloomy.

Historically, stock market investments have tended to outperform bonds or cash deposits over the long term.     Anyone with a few decades ahead of them should consider if they want to be on the wrong side of that trend.

Also, check if your country has tax free wrappers, such as the ISAs or SIPPs in the UK. 

[pong2]

On 1/31/2022 at 2:17 AM, spoon said:

Ive always been frugal since young. Basically in my family, im probably the only one lol. Im sure its something that can be thought but most of it are habits. Based on your report, seems like bangkok guy is fitting those frugal molds hehe, and will do well if he has a good steady income.

Bagus!

I wonder if thailand banks gives a good return on interest? If not, is there a place where thai naitional can put their money in that is low risk but gives returns of around 4-5% and allow him to take his fund anytime? Then maybe its wise for him to put a portion of the business saving there. Anything higher than a normal saving accounts really.

No. The tipical country boy (the one that is so often portrayed here) will not trust Thai banks-he was since childhood be told that by parents. Instead the family believes that buying gold will be the very best method to shepherd savings. After all it is sold in measures that are called BAHT. And investments and all that where z909 talks about is far beyond their imagination. Though perhaps-as I have not been there too long, this crypto bitcoin hype has now also seized them?

OTOH as I do not really see that much of Silom boys anyway-a very wide variation in handling this could be found from the boys Ie spoken a bit more to. Though most of them lately were not Thai, but Khmer/Burmese. They were simply there to make money amap and when the threshold was reached they left. Also quite a few Thai students-student job for the weekend.

 

[scott456]

On 1/31/2022 at 1:03 PM, z909 said:

Having a healthy saving ratio is one of the fundamental requirements for getting wealthy.  (Arguably every money boy should have a high saving ratio, as the successful ones will earn far in excess of the minimum wage, but only for a decade or so.  As far as I can tell, those who treat their customers well get repeat business and are doing quite nicely, even now. Which means they are earning a multiple of the minimum wage.

Conversely, those who get offed once and do nothing to deserve a repeat, tend to disappear from the scene after a few weeks)

Getting back to saving, there seems to be no satisfactory definition of risk.  The financial industry tends to use volatility as a measure of risk, but if holding long term, asset price volatility is almost irrelevant as a measure of risk.  Short term fluctuations don't matter, but permanent impairment does, eg a business failing or suffering a major and permanent loss.

In many countries, there are no "risk free" investments offering a 4-5% return and it's been like that since 2008.   You might earn 1% if you're lucky, whilst inflation has been 2-3% and that's recently increased.  So "risk free" investments have had negative returns. So certain failure.

In recent years, any country with a proper interest rate, significantly exceeding the rate of inflation has tended to have some doubts over the exchange rate, or something else wrong with it.  Over the last century, there have been numerous countries where bank deposits have lost a significant percentage or even almost all of their purchasing power due to iinflation. Bank deposits are not always safe.

I would argue that for anyone with a time horizon of 20 or more years, serious consideration has to be given to some conservative stock market investments.   Not speculation in Tesla, Rivian etc.   But investment in proper companies with sensible valuations.  Also, since we've had a long bull market, valuations remain crazy in some parts of the world and many countries are entering an interest rate tightening cycle. So ddon't immediately go from 0 % in the stock market to 100%.  

Perhaps 10% this year, 10% next year and so on.   Or try to increase the stock market investments when markets offer better value.  ie Increase the rate of purchases when PE ratios are sensible and the outlook is gloomy.

Historically, stock market investments have tended to outperform bonds or cash deposits over the long term.     Anyone with a few decades ahead of them should consider if they want to be on the wrong side of that trend.

Also, check if your country has tax free wrappers, such as the ISAs or SIPPs in the UK. 

Good for you.  But I am afraid most of the posters on this board don't have 20 years or more to take in the risk.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, scott456 said:

Good for you.  But I am afraid most of the posters on this board don't have 20 years or more to take in the risk.

A large number of participants on this board will be under 63, which is roughly where residual male life expectancy drops to 20 years.  Whether it's a majority or a minority of members is unknown. 

What I do know is more than one of the active participants in this thread is under 60.  

We are also entitled to discuss investment scenarios that affect either a majority or a minority of members and will continue to do so.