Demographic doomsday

[reader]

The labor dilemmas that have have affected some western nations have now beset Thailand.

From Bangkok Post

Having endured the pandemic for the last two years, Thailand's workforce gradually changed over that period as many unemployed people started to run their own business or work as freelancers.

More than a few companies are now lamenting they cannot find staff in time for a recovery.

Migrant workers who were laid off moved back to their countries during the peak of the pandemic last year and have not returned to Thailand, partly because of enhanced border-crossing restrictions.

Thailand is poised to enter a fifth wave of the pandemic, driven by the Omicron variant, sparking uncertainty over the labour force during the coming months.

The labour shortage is a long-term concern and social scientists have been warning about it for years, fuelled by a decline in birth rates, an ageing population and now the pandemic.

According to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), the working age population in Thailand will continue to edge downward, from 43.2 million in 2020 to 36.5 million in 2040.

A labour shortage has loomed over the tourism industry the past few years, but during the pandemic it was ignored because many places closed given the lack of foreign tourists, said Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, president of the Thai Hotels Association.

Hotel operators are now struggling to fill vacant posts as they reopen to tourists, said Mrs Marisa.

She said hospitality companies operate successfully with a mix of younger and experienced employees, as hotel services require skilled workers who can meet company standards.

However, tourism workers are reluctant to return to jobs that do not provide a secure future, said Mrs Marisa.

"As the tourism situation remains fluid, 50% of those who were furloughed or laid off during the pandemic decided not to return," she said.

"Even though we can attract a number of young applicants, this group often does not have sufficient qualifications, particularly English communication skills that generally remain pretty weak."

Mrs Marisa said in addition to a shrinking young population because of a declining birth rate, the government should pay serious attention to the quality of education for students and young adults.

Positions that require English skills, such as sales representatives and front receptionists, are the most sought-after jobs, she said. Many hotels have to offer a high salary to recruit employees with potential during the intense labour shortage.

Most hotels also find it difficult to recruit back-office workers that require specific skill sets, such as engineers responsible for system maintenance and IT and digital tech officers, said Mrs Marisa.

Thailand depends on migrant workers from Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia, but their numbers declined during Covid-19 outbreaks, leading to a shortage of 486,000 legal labourers.

Many of them returned to their countries during the pandemic and could not easily come back to work because of strict travel restrictions, he said.

"Up to 70% of migrant workers are Myanmar nationals, which Thailand greatly depends on," said Mr Tanit.

"Laotians tend not to work here because their government is promoting more investments, especially from Chinese investors. A similar tendency is happening with Cambodian workers."

Labour scarcity, notably in labour-intensive industries, led to a call for the Thai government to sign memoranda of understanding (MoU) with neighbouring countries to import more workers.

Continues at

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2248547/demographic-doomsday

 

[vinapu]

There must be something to it, two out three best boys I met last trip were Cambodians

[reader]

From Thai Enquirer

Thailand should stop publicizing Covid numbers by April

Thailand must learn to live with the Covid-19 virus and stop publicizing daily pandemic numbers by the end of April to boost public confidence and allow the country to get back to normal, a senior public health expert told Thai Enquirer on Monday.

Thailand recorded 6,929 cases on Monday but just 13 fatalities. On Sunday, the number of deaths, 9, was the lowest recorded in over a year. However, one of those fatalities was from the new Omicron variant of the disease.

“I think there is an understanding among health officials that the new Omicron variant is less deadly and could mean the end of the pandemic for us,” said Kanyarat Wanna-anant, a public health expert with Chiang Mai Rajaphat University.

“You have to factor this in with our vaccine numbers which are increasing everyday including the use of boosters to know that the end of the pandemic is in sight.”

According to Kanyarat, the economic effects of the pandemic have been much more devastating than the virus itself and the country must do all it can to boost consumer and public confidence.

“The only number that matters is the death toll and it has gone done by a massive amount since last September and will continue to stay low. If it hovers around the single digits then Thailand will see more road deaths per day than Covid-19 deaths,” she said.

“That means we have to reevaluate our priorities, continue to be vigilant, keep acquiring the latest technology to fight the virus but also not induce undue panic in the population.”

Kanyarat says if the government were to set a target to stop publicizing numbers by April, then it would signal to the country that there is an end date to the public health crisis and that it was not a “forever war.”

“Barring another variant that is more deadly, we will see the world emerge out of this shadow by the middle of this year.”

https://www.thaienquirer.com/36572/thailand-should-stop-publicizing-covid-numbers-by-april/

[vinapu]

finally voice of reason

[Guest]

13 COVID deaths

1500 other deaths

If any rational person wanted to cut the death rate, he would look at the 99%, not the 1%.

[macaroni21]

This labour shortage problem is a long time in the making. Falling birth rates need a 20 - 30 years to produce its effects on the labour force. 1991 was the year in which Thailand's Total Fertility Rate fell below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, and the TFR has fallen steadily since. It's exactly 30 years since that cross-over year, and now the effects will begin to show.

With the gradual reduction of new entrants into the labour market, coupled with the steady economic progress the country has made, it cannot be surprising that job opportunities (or business oportunities for those prepared to venture out on their own) are aplenty, as the news story above says. With that, we can expect wages to rise. 

Sex work is the one area that is extremely sensitive to labour shortage and rising wages. Sex work tends to be performed by young men (and women) who have no other viable alternative for a livelihood; it is what in economics might be called a leading indicator for a tightening labour market and rising wages. To put it bluntly, there has to be a degree of desperation for a vibrant sex market to develop. That desperation began disappearing among young Thais at least 15 years ago, which was when I began to notice the appearance of Cambodians, Burmese and Vietnamese into the industry.

Those of us making regular visits to Thailand will also have noticed the price inflation over the years. But a more interesting comparison can be made between the 2019 massage parlour prices in Phnom Penh, Manila and Bangkok. In Phnom Penh, they were asking for US$10 - U$20 as tip for one hour's service. In Manila, about US$20. In the same year, a typical massage parlour worker in Bangkok would have been asking US$30 - US$50. Go to Japan, and it's at least $150 (likely more -- others with more up-to-date information, please correct me if I'm wrong). The price spread says a lot about unemployment or underemployment in each country.

If Thailand prices rise to approach Japanese or European levels, will Bangkok still be a destination? I doubt it, though it may be a while yet before Thai prices go that high.

What I will find interesting to observe in the years ahead is whether Bangkok remains a destination but staffed mostly by lads from neighbouring countries, or whether other cities in the region with native supply of labour become the new destinations. Of course, political and moral climates will play huge roles too. The double whammy will be if Bangkok prices rise thus dampenng its appeal, but the scene in neighbouring countries does not take off because of regulation.

 

 

[reader]

3 hours ago, macaroni21 said:

Sex work is the one area that is extremely sensitive to labour shortage and rising wages. Sex work tends to be performed by young men (and women) who have no other viable alternative for a livelihood; it is what in economics might be called a leading indicator for a tightening labour market and rising wages. To put it bluntly, there has to be a degree of desperation for a vibrant sex market to develop. That desperation began disappearing among young Thais at least 15 years ago, which was when I began to notice the appearance of Cambodians, Burmese and Vietnamese into the industry.

I agree with much of what you said above but I have to take issue with assumption that "desperation" is necessarily the primary factor that drives them to taking up  sex work. For most who I've encountered, the schedule and the amount of tax-free cash they can earn are the overriding factors.

And not everyone is suited for the work. Those with the right skills, appearance and personality earn wages significantly higher than construction or seafood processing, the two areas that attract most of the ASEAN workers who find their way to Thailand--and are so sorely missed now.

And then there's some who enjoy the ancillary benefits of free meals and travel, and the opportunity to meet visitors from around the globe they'd never have the chance to meet otherwise.

 

[Londoner]

The possibility of meeting a relatively-wealthy falang in a LTR is a huge draw. Only a minority are successful I'd guess, but the possibility is enough to draw young men away from the rice-fields. 

P once took me through the Dreamboys cast-list of 2010,  (the Pattaya one) , his last year ; I was staggered at the number of guys he knew there who had found themselves a falang. How long these relationships lasted is another matter, of course but I have met three of them with their falang partners by chance while out with him in Pattaya in the last five years or so.  Another one I met had just inherited a comfortable home .

[PeterRS]

18 hours ago, macaroni21 said:

This labour shortage problem is a long time in the making. Falling birth rates need a 20 - 30 years to produce its effects on the labour force. 1991 was the year in which Thailand's Total Fertility Rate fell below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, and the TFR has fallen steadily since. It's exactly 30 years since that cross-over year, and now the effects will begin to show.

It's sometimes easy to forget that 50 years ago couples in Thailand were each bearing between 5 and 6 children. The governments of the day agreed this was unsustainable and so started a major nationwide campaign to promote birth control. Leading the effort was Mechai Viravaidya who decided much greater use of condoms was required. He then travelled the country promoting condom use - basically through taking the stigma out of them. He would organise condom balloon contests, filling them with water and dropping them from heights and seemingly silly things like that. But it worked so well that condoms are still today referred to as Mechais! His restaurants Cabbages and Condoms are still operating.

And it worked even better than expected in reducing the birth rate. Being at best a second world country, 5 to 6 children were economically unsustainable for families. Hence many were mired in basic poverty. As birth rates fell, incomes rose and the incentives for having fewer children were significant. At the present rate, Thailand is going to become eventually more like Singapore and Japan where birth rates are so low an increasingly smaller labour force will have to look after an increasingly larger percentage of those in the older age group. At present the birth rate per couple in Japan is 1.36. The spectre of importing foreign workers, once considered anathema, is now openly discussed. In Singapore the birth rate has fallen to 1.21 despite many government efforts to boost it. The nation-state now is home to 1.2 million registered foreign workers.

This all helps to explain why the very large numbers of Thai boys working in the bars in the 1980s and 90s began to drop off by the mid-2000s very significantly.

13 hours ago, Londoner said:

The possibility of meeting a relatively-wealthy falang in a LTR is a huge draw. Only a minority are successful I'd guess, but the possibility is enough to draw young men away from the rice-fields.

With all respect to @LondonerI do think this is now far less of an alternative to find work in gay venues than it was 30 - 40 years ago. Then the alternative to gay activities was indeed the rice field. I believe that is much less so today. Of course there will always be young Thais who like being with a farang, especially if he has money to provide a better life for him and his family. Same with the girls. But as - and if - the country keeps developing economically, I also believe these numbers will continue to fall. Will gay venue owners be prepared to continue operating with boys from neighbouring poorer countries, virtually all here either illegally or on one month non-work visas? I guess only time will tell.

[macaroni21]

23 hours ago, reader said:

I have to take issue with assumption that "desperation" is necessarily the primary factor that drives them to taking up  sex work. For most who I've encountered, the schedule and the amount of tax-free cash they can earn are the overriding factors.

We may be using the word “desperation” a little differently. I wasn’t referring only to abject penury, though there is that unfortunately, but to what might be described as relative desperation. By this I mean wanting a certain standard of living or lifestyle but with no other way to attain it except through sex work. The lads may indeed have options such as back-breaking work in the ricefields or as servers in humble provincial food shops, or pushing a cart around selling bananas. Such work may even provide an income that keeps body and soul together, and many young people will accept the wages that go with them. However, those that aspire to a better lifestyle and not adverse to selling their bodies may rule these humble options out, choosing the path of stripping on stage night after night, the risk of social shame and having to suppress their gag reflexes when customers, old enough to be their fathers, pick them.

My point was that as wages for planting rice, waiting on tables and selling bananas rise in tandem with a tightened labour supply and generalised prosperity, the reward for stripping, social shame and suppressing gag reflexes must necessarily go up to be worthwhile.

The "demographic doomsday" notwithstanding, Thailand’s sex scene may continue well into the future, but with quite different price points. This then raises the question whether that pricier sex scene will remain a draw for visitors; whether Thailand will remain a destination. After all, Japan has sellers of sex and massages at first-world price levels, and they have their buyers, mostly other Japanese. But it’s very hard to make a destination out of the Japanese scene. So, I was musing: what would be the price level for Thai (and migrant sex worker) sellers that would begin to turn off visitors? I don't know the answer; I was just thinking aloud.

 

20 hours ago, Londoner said:

The possibility of meeting a relatively-wealthy falang in a LTR is a huge draw. Only a minority are successful I'd guess, but the possibility is enough to draw young men away from the rice-fields. 

I agree we shouldn't overstate the success rate. I think we're likely to agree too that far more visitors to Thailand come as butterflies than as potential husbands, of both gay and straight kinds. This observation is even more pronounced when we look at the Asian segment of visitors which now forms the bigger portion.

Secondly, your point is just putting my original point in a different way. The hope of landing a farang husband is simply a variation of the sex-work choice. It’s when they want a certain lifestyle but cannot attain it through regular work that they choose the sex work route. This can then lead to a fork in the road. Either, with luck, end up with a sugar daddy so that one does not have to strip on stage every night and suppress the gag reflex too often, while turning social shame into social capital, or - in the absence of luck - persevere at sex work for years on end, which must have been the case for the 40-ish gogo”boys” I have seen in several Patpong bars.

I also wonder whether the farang husband species is disappearing. We’ve heard plenty of reports of the demise of Pattaya due to reduced farang traffic (Pattaya has never managed to attract enough gay Asian visitors to replace the vanishing farang). Bangkok survives because of the Asian traffic, but somehow I’ve yet to hear of an Asian sugardaddy for the boys. Such a species may well exist… I don’t know. 

 

[reader]

1 hour ago, macaroni21 said:

The lads may indeed have options such as back-breaking work in the ricefields or as servers in humble provincial food shops, or pushing a cart around selling bananas. Such work may even provide an income that keeps body and soul together, and many young people will accept the wages that go with them. However, those that aspire to a better lifestyle and not adverse to selling their bodies may rule these humble options out, choosing the path of stripping on stage night after night, the risk of social shame and having to suppress their gag reflexes when customers, old enough to be their fathers, pick them.

You seem to believe that the available options are toiling in the rice fields or selling bananas. But Thailand has been rapidly transforming into an industrialized country with many entry-level manufacturing jobs available. Working in the rice field is normally something that the whole family contributes to in the planting and harvesting seasons, but some of that labor is now mechanized. It's not the Thailand of 40-50 years ago. The options aren't as humble as you project.

You twice refer to suppressing the gag reflex. You and I have obviously had very different experiences in Thailand because I've not encountered that behavior. Many are up front in setting their personal limits but so do we. If I treated an affair as a purely transactional arrangement, I would expect a mechanical and impersonal response. I've found that trying to learn a little about the guy as an individual frequently makes a difference in how he views both me and himself.

It's been my experience that most of the guys I meet have much better self-images than you present here.

[TotallyOz]

Fascinating conversation.

In my experience, some love sex work and some hate it. I am just so happy that the ones that love it seem to be attracted to me more than the other group.  Or, maybe it is that smile?

I have had many LTR in Thailand: 16 years, 15 years, 7 years, 6 years, and more 1 years than my age. My experience has been good in LOS. But, it has been just as good in USA and Brazil (but not the length of time as the Brazilians always fuck it up by having an emergency like the bank was robbed and all their money was taken).

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, macaroni21 said:

Japan has sellers of sex and massages at first-world price levels, and they have their buyers, mostly other Japanese. But it’s very hard to make a destination out of the Japanese scene.

Considering everything, the cost of sex and massages in Japan is not all that much higher than Thailand pre-covid. You can choose a guy from one of the several boy bars to come to your hotel room. Each website is likely to have at least 100 boys with photographs, statistics, details of what the boy will or will not do and how much an hour or more will cost you. These bars also have some of the aggressively cute boys who star in the plethora of gay porn movies. Best of all the photos will look exactly like the boys. For around US$113 inclusive of everything he will come to your hotel room (and be there exactly to the minute), spend a hour with you and 'perform' exactly as per the website and you have informed the mamasan in advance. I have yet to come across anyone who has been anything other than very satisfied.

True, you can get away with a short time in Bangkok for around 1,500 baht although it has been creeping more towards 2,000. In Bangkok, though, you mostly have to get to and from the bar, pay for drinks for yourself and your chosen one, and then pay the off fee. In most cases you will get what you have asked for - but certainly not always.

Tokyo also has several of the best saunas in the region where you can stay for many hours. And although most of the bars are for Japanese only, there are still plenty catering to a mixed crown. And it is here you are more likely to find Japanese wanted to meet foreigners. The apps, too, are becoming more foreigner friendly. No doubt the problem more guys do not consider Tokyo a gay destination is the 'fear/concern' of not knowing the language and the local customs. Then there is the climate. It is even more hot and excessively humid than Bangkok in the summer and cold, frequently with snow, in the winter. Against that the spring and autumn periods are stunning with glorious scenery just outside the city. For those not wishing to consider Tokyo as a vacation destination, as a stopover for 2 or 3 days it could be great. Just make sure you have a good bilingual map!

[Guest]

I'm still on holiday in Thailand, yet over 80% of my hookups have been with lads from Cambodia and Laos.   I don't filter by nationality, but admittedly a preference for skinny lads tips the balance towards certain countries.  So I do encounter migrant labour on a regular basis.

Regarding any demographic problems creating labour shortages, well Thailand could adapt with a mix of productivity improvements and immigration from Cambodia and Laos.  The public sector could start by firing some of their excess staff to free them up to do something productive.  The number of people doing pointless work in, for example, immigration departments and on the railways is astonishing.  Increasing productivity is necessary if you also want to improve living standards.  

[macaroni21]

19 minutes ago, z909 said:

Regarding any demographic problems creating labour shortages, well Thailand could adapt with a mix of productivity improvements and immigration from Cambodia and Laos.  

I can see that happening more and more too -- for jobs that are "above board". I don't know how the government will be issuing work visas for sex work and related trades.

To your question posed rhetorically above, "Will gay venue owners be prepared to continue operating with boys from neighbouring poorer countries"?, one should factor in legal risk. Now, one might make the point that many establishments already operate with majority (if not 100%) foreign staff, so why not in the future. That is one possibility; indeed the most likely possibility so long as the astonishing number of people doing pointless work in the immigration department continue the glorious tradition of being ineffective (or perhaps being on the take). In my view, such would be the best outcome, keeping Bangkok on my list of holiday spots.

However, this will not mean that prices will remain where they are now. As the cost of living in Bangkok goes up, as Thai themselves (those still doing sex work) charge higher prices, so will the migrants. It's instructive to note for example that the Cambodian working in Thailand does not charge the same price as the Cambodian in Phnom Penh. The one is Thailand is charging similarly to the Thai guy.

[vinapu]

4 hours ago, macaroni21 said:

. It's instructive to note for example that the Cambodian working in Thailand does not charge the same price as the Cambodian in Phnom Penh. The one is Thailand is charging similarly to the Thai guy.

Perhaps this is why he came to work in Thailand in the first place.

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Considering everything, the cost of sex and massages in Japan is not all that much higher than Thailand pre-covid. .........For around US$113 inclusive of everything he will come to your hotel room 

....................

True, you can get away with a short time in Bangkok for around 1,500 baht although it has been creeping more towards 2,000. In Bangkok, though, you mostly have to get to and from the bar, pay for drinks for yourself and your chosen one, and then pay the off fee.

..................

 Then there is the climate. It is even more hot and excessively humid than Bangkok in the summer

...........

stopover for 2 or 3 days it could be great. 

even at 2000 , it's still only 60 USD, in 3 weeks vacation difference becomes kind of substantial . It's good news that 1 hr. service time means exactly  60 minutes in Japan which is not necessary a case in BKK but it also means that any extension will involve paying up which is Ok but also another round of time watching which may act like fun strangler. Just a thought , not trying to dispute  your findings.

Then comes generally much higher cost of vacationing in Japan which not always means higher standard i.e, accommodation where rooms are often size of postcard I was told.

I'm surprised to hear about summer heat there but it must be truth as I heard the same from somebody who worked few years in both  cities and the same about Taipei from Taiwanese who worked in Bangkok. Vagaries of climate I guess , after all world's coldest capital is not northernmost Reykjavik , not even Stockholm or Helsinki but Ulan Bataar ( Mongolia).

Few days stopover as sampler is always good idea  but for cheapest ticket holders it may mean much higher airfare costs  so it must be weighted on too.

[reader]

7 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

Fascinating conversation.

In my experience, some love sex work and some hate it. I am just so happy that the ones that love it seem to be attracted to me more than the other group.  Or, maybe it is that smile?

Coming to Bangkok since 2002 and don't think I ever booked a massage or offed a guy who wasn't smiling.

You can't gag and smile at same time. ☺️

[reader]

 

6 hours ago, macaroni21 said:

. It's instructive to note for example that the Cambodian working in Thailand does not charge the same price as the Cambodian in Phnom Penh. The one is Thailand is charging similarly to the Thai guy.

2 hours ago, vinapu said:

Perhaps this is why he came to work in Thailand in the first place.

I think this clearly demonstrates that a guy who's savvy enough to understands this will never find himself desperate for work.

[PeterRS]

13 hours ago, vinapu said:

even at 2000 , it's still only 60 USD, in 3 weeks vacation difference becomes kind of substantial . It's good news that 1 hr. service time means exactly  60 minutes in Japan which is not necessary a case in BKK but it also means that any extension will involve paying up which is Ok but also another round of time watching which may act like fun strangler. Just a thought , not trying to dispute  your findings.

Not at all. Your summations are correct. If you are into gay for pay, then sticking with boys from the boy bars and boy websites in Japan does mean you pay extra for extra time. And your vacation will be more expensive than in Bangkok. But I assume since you are not paying for drinks and off fees, you are focussing on money boys from the apps. This always surprises me. I cannot speak for Pattaya but in Bangkok there are lots of boys in the apps looking for hookups who do not expect cash - and will sometimes refuse even transport money. The last time I was in Tokyo there were certainly fewer boys interested in foreigners. On the other hand there were far fewer money boys.

13 hours ago, vinapu said:

Then comes generally much higher cost of vacationing in Japan which not always means higher standard i.e, accommodation where rooms are often size of postcard I was told.

I'm surprised to hear about summer heat there but it must be truth as I heard the same from somebody who worked few years in both  cities and the same about Taipei from Taiwanese who worked in Bangkok. Vagaries of climate I guess , after all world's coldest capital is not northernmost Reykjavik , not even Stockholm or Helsinki but Ulan Bataar ( Mongolia).

Few days stopover as sampler is always good idea  but for cheapest ticket holders it may mean much higher airfare costs  so it must be weighted on too.

Hotel room pricing in Japan is to a large extent dependent on room size and partly location. But you do not have to pay a fortune and the rooms will be spotlessly clean. There are plenty of guest houses and small hotels offering rooms around $40 or thereabouts. Yes, many will be small. But not all. For example, here is the room with bathroom at The Red Planet close to the famous Senso-ji Temple in Asakusa. This will cost you all of 350 baht on agoda for a night in February.

Sadly the summer heat really is worse than April in Bangkok - largely because the humidity is high. When I worked there I needed a dehumidifier in the summer and a humidifier in the winter!

[spoon]

Can u share how u can get 350 baht for red planet asakusa? I did a couple of dates in february 2022 and i can only get around 1000 baht, which is still cheap but not sure if this rate is available when japan actually open up.

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, spoon said:

Can u share how u can get 350 baht for red planet asakusa? I did a couple of dates in february 2022 and i can only get around 1000 baht, which is still cheap but not sure if this rate is available when japan actually open up.

Apologies to all. My error. I stupidly assumed the price was in ¥ and covered down to baht. As @spoonhas rightly confirmed, the actual price is virtually 1,000 baht.

[vinapu]

even at 1000

2 hours ago, spoon said:

which is still cheap but not sure if this rate is available when japan actually open up.

most likely you have a point, 

on another hand good to know that Japan is not that expensive and cheap rooms can be had there

on third hand still in February I rather be in Bangkok than Tokyo , no matter prices

[Guest]

In my experience, hotel rooms in Tokyo are far more expensive than equivalent rooms in Bangkok.

Comparisons at present are not necessarily valid, due to discounts and a lack of travellers due to covid.   In normal times, an acceptable hotel room can be had in Silom for about 1200 baht.  In covid times, 500 baht.

In Shinjuku, near the gay area, from what I remember even with a 4000 baht budget, the selection would be limited.   The fact that they might be discounting more aggressively, when we cannot travel there, doesn't have much relevance.

I do remember some cheaper hotel deals in cities like Hiroshima.   Even on the 60th anniversary of their urban replanning event, I secured a room at short notice for a very good price.

[PeterRS]

10 hours ago, z909 said:

In my experience, hotel rooms in Tokyo are far more expensive than equivalent rooms in Bangkok.

Comparisons at present are not necessarily valid, due to discounts and a lack of travellers due to covid.   In normal times, an acceptable hotel room can be had in Silom for about 1200 baht.  In covid times, 500 baht.

In Shinjuku, near the gay area, from what I remember even with a 4000 baht budget, the selection would be limited.   The fact that they might be discounting more aggressively, when we cannot travel there, doesn't have much relevance.

I do remember some cheaper hotel deals in cities like Hiroshima.   Even on the 60th anniversary of their urban replanning event, I secured a room at short notice for a very good price.

@z909's estimate is reasonably accurate. Re room sizes, in the days not so long ago when I travelled on business I was able to stay quite close to Shinjuku Station in a decent sized room in a 4 star hotel for around 5,700 bt. Since those days, I have found two hotels in the Kabuki-cho district (nearer the bar area) where I get B&B for 4,200 bt. The rooms are a bit smaller but nothing like the much smaller rooms you'll get if your budget is nearer 2,000 bt. 

And it's true that being restricted to only Japanese tourists, all Tokyo hotels presently have big discounts. But as he points out, there are deals to be had if you are prepared to check around for them.

Another area where Tokyo is much cheaper than people assume are food and transport. There are so may small restaurants/cafes where you can get a nourishing main course for little more than 200 bt. The public transport system is amazing and amazingly cheap. You can get virtually anywhere in that huge city and be just 200 meters or so from your destination. The one problem is that almost all of it shuts down before midnight. So location becomes important because taxis are horribly expensive.

I suggest a stopover is the best way of sampling some of what Tokyo offers. When I first moved to Asia, I wanted to visit many countries, but for whatever reason not Japan. On a Tokyo business stopover from the USA I found I was hooked. Not only have I worked there but I have visited at least 40 other times. Each time is a joy and anew exploration.