The sky is falling

[Guest]

From all these dumb restrictions, anyone would think covid is the only cause of premature death.

In practice, it's far from the worst cause of premature death and covid does not significantly alter our probability of death in the next 12 months.

[reader]

From Thai Enquirer

Thailand adjusts entry permissions, restarts sandbox entries, halts Test and Go

Thailand said it will adjust its entry permissions on Friday in line with global pandemic guidelines.

The Test and Go procedure with one-day quarantine is still temporarily scrapped.

“We will continue to halt the Test and Go procedure for now,” said Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, the spokesman of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration.

The deadline for those with approved Thailand Passes for the procedure, was extended from January 10 to 15.

“No entry via this procedure will be allowed after January 15,” he said.

The CCSA estimated that there are around 10,400 people who were approved for the procedure and still waiting to enter between January 7 and 15.

The ban on entries from eight African countries will be lifted on January 11.

The registration to enter Thailand via the tourist sandboxes, with seven days quarantine period, in Phuket, Krabi, Phang Nga and Surat Thani (Ko Samui, Ko Pha-ngan and Ko Tao) will be reopened on January 11 after it was halted on December 22.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/36302/thailand-adjusts-entry-permissions-restarts-sandbox-entries-halts-text-and-go/

[vinapu]

10 hours ago, reader said:

The CCSA will be asked to ban alcohol consumption -- which is considered a risk factor in the spread of the virus

that reminds me first lockdown where I live  in March of 2020 where almost everything was closed but stores selling alcohol were shockingly exempted. Explanation was that alcoholics with withdrawal symptom  could possibly clog hospitals and much needed   beds in them. Even if not true at least it sounded plausibly, LOL

[reader]

The CCSA kept the status of the eight provinces approved for tourism promotion unchanged, meaning they are allowed to serve alcoholic beverages at eateries until 9pm.

The provinces are:

• Bangkok
• Chon Buri
• Kanchanaburi
• Krabi
• Nonthaburi
• Pathum Thani
• Phangnga
• Phuket

 

[reader]

Richard Barrow has posted a series of tweets that regarding the actual status of the entry program for those who have "approved" Thai pass. This is the latest one I could locate (dated 7 Jan). They appear to contradict media reports from yesterday.

"IMPORTANT: I have just been informed by @MFAThai that Thailand Pass holders using Test & Go can now change to an earlier arrival date. You just need to write to them with the details. Email tfcovid19@mfa.go.th or if you’re going to Phuket phuket.thailandpass@gmail.com. Good luck!"

 

Here's another one from 7 Jan.

 

"The CCSA has just confirmed that although new registrations for Test & Go remain suspended, travellers who have already been approved can enter #Thailand according to the conditions and on the date they requested, until this order changes. There is NO cut off date."

 

 

[vinapu]

it looks that left hand  doesn't know what right hand is doing, just like poorly conducted 4 hand massage.

But in covid context it's situation  not unique to Thailand by any means, almost every country has it's own sins. 

[Boy69]

6 hours ago, vinapu said:

it looks that left hand  doesn't know what right hand is doing, just like poorly conducted 4 hand massage.

But in covid context it's situation  not unique to Thailand by any means, almost every country has it's own sins. 

Unfortunately governments all over the world taking histeric decisions instead of using common sense more people are dying from Malaria , Dangie fever, cancer and car accidents then Covid 19 .we are leaving in madness time .

[vinapu]

1 minute ago, Boy69 said:

Unfortunately governments all over the world taking hysteric decisions instead of using common sense 

I agree with hysteric part but don't blame them entirely , like us , governments simply don't know trying different approaches although they should pay more attention to what others tried and see if it worked or now. 

As for common sense I doubt it exists over covid issue, it's too early to develop one by general population.

I noticed people's  outlook changes   depending whether they had exposure to  people who got sick and also length of pandemic.

Liberal minded people of of the sudden are in favor of restrictions because mom or friend got sick and they see it's no kidding, but also  initially restrictive people  are in favor of easing up as  they see that restrictive approach does more harm to peoples lives than good, virus spreads anyways and economies and people's living are greatly affected    / that's my case for example /

[reader]

From Richard Barrow Twitter site

The infection rate of all travellers entering Thailand by air:

• ·       November: 0.13%
• ·       December: 0.45%
• ·       January: 2.79%
• Test & Go: 2.98%
• Sandbox: 1.60%
• Quarantine: 2.24%

[vinapu]

less then 3% at worst , it's probably the same percentage of infected with flu in any streetcar or bus in winter season in Northern Hemisphere

scary but hardly disaster 

[Gaybutton]

6 hours ago, vinapu said:

scary but hardly disaster 

Not a disaster - at least not yet.  But the powers-that-be seem, for whatever their reasons, to be turning it into an artificial disaster.

[vaughn]

My worry is that when cases start to peak, they will see that 3% or greater case numbers (at that time) as an unnecessary strain on their health system. This might shut down travel entirely until it is under control or accepted as BAU.

I hope I'm wrong, but there is an anxious population and a government with a tendency to react in unpredictable ways to case numbers.

 

[Boy69]

5 hours ago, vaughn said:

My worry is that when cases start to peak, they will see that 3% or greater case numbers (at that time) as an unnecessary strain on their health system. This might shut down travel entirely until it is under control or accepted as BAU.

I hope I'm wrong, but there is an anxious population and a government with a tendency to react in unpredictable ways to case numbers.

 

I think it's time to stop counting the numbers of infections and look only of at number who are severely ill . Greece for example start this practice and this the right direction in my opinion.

All the measors governments doing are pointless they are trying to stop something that can not be stop for example the pointless restrictions on Int'l traveling to prevent the spread of the Omicron variant ended up now that this is the dominant infectious variant all over the world .redicilous.

[Gaybutton]

6 hours ago, vaughn said:

a government with a tendency to react in unpredictable ways to case numbers.

That's the problem.  When planning a trip to Thailand I suggest taking very seriously the possibility that they could close the borders, both coming and going, without warning.  They've done it before and a lot of travelers found themselves stuck in Thailand, some for weeks, some for months, unexpectedly - with no way to return home.

I definitely would plan for that possibility.  I would not suggest brushing it off with an "it won't happen to me".  When people say it won't happen to me, that's when it happens - to them.

Speaking only for myself, considering past history and precedent, the way things are right now, and where things seem to be headed, the last thing I would be doing would be planning international travel without a damned good reason.  I would wait until things stabilize and stay that way and I would wait until the places I want to go, including the bars, are actually open.  I would not rely on when the powers-that-be say they can open. 

And the next consideration - I will repeat what I've said before.  There is a big difference between the bars can open and the bars will open.  I have no idea how many bars, especially go-go bars, plan to open as quickly as possible, assuming they survived to be able to open at all.  Even when they do open or reopen, how many boys will there be working in the bars?

If you are planning a trip to Thailand, make sure you're not wearing rose colored glasses while doing your planning.   Remember - think with your brain, not your crotch.                                                                                                                               

[Guest]

Boris Johnson has removed almost all travel restrictions for returning to England now.   I believe I just need to get a lateral flow test 2 days after returning, although with any luck, even that will be gone by the time I return.

They correctly figure out that inbound travel restrictions are pointless once a variant is circulating in the country.

I suspect England will be past peak infections very shortly and for once, BJ's policies will be correct for the circumstances.   I'm hoping Thailand might also move towards more liberal policies after observing a few other countries.

[Boy69]

2 hours ago, Gaybutton said:

That's the problem.  When planning a trip to Thailand I suggest taking very seriously the possibility that they could close the borders, both coming and going, without warning.  They've done it before and a lot of travelers found themselves stuck in Thailand, some for weeks, some for months, unexpectedly - with no way to return home.

I definitely would plan for that possibility.  I would not suggest brushing it off with an "it won't happen to me".  When people say it won't happen to me, that's when it happens - to them.

Speaking only for myself, considering past history and precedent, the way things are right now, and where things seem to be headed, the last thing I would be doing would be planning international travel without a damned good reason.  I would wait until things stabilize and stay that way and I would wait until the places I want to go, including the bars, are actually open.  I would not rely on when the powers-that-be say they can open. 

And the next consideration - I will repeat what I've said before.  There is a big difference between the bars can open and the bars will open.  I have no idea how many bars, especially go-go bars, plan to open as quickly as possible, assuming they survived to be able to open at all.  Even when they do open or reopen, how many boys will there be working in the bars?

If you are planning a trip to Thailand, make sure you're not wearing rose colored glasses while doing your planning.   Remember - think with your brain, not your crotch.                                                                                                                               

You are correct this is why I suspended all my plans to travel abroad till further notice .I was caught in Thailand at the beginning of the apademic my origin flight had been cancelled at the last minute and I had to buy alternative ticket home, after 3 weeks the int'l flights were totally suspended for months . I got away from Thailand at the last minute . Now I don't have any plans to repeat this doubious adventure and I will consider traveling only after all this madness is over.

[reader]

From Thai Enquirer

Only one covid-related number Thais should concentrate on, senior doctor says

By Cod Satrusayang

Thailand must stop focusing on new Covid-19 infection numbers in light of increasing vaccination rates and the spread of the milder Omicron variant, a senior doctor told Thai Enquirer on Monday.

The country discovered 7,926 new cases in the past 24 hours, in line with the recent surge in cases stemming from travel during the new year period and the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant.

It is nearly a three hundred per cent increase in the number of average cases from December when the country was finding some 2,000 cases per day.

But according to one senior doctor at Siriraj Hospital, those numbers are misleading and the public should not place much importance on total number of new infections.

“Our vaccination rate and our booster rate is still climbing while Omicron has proven to be less severe than earlier variants, that means we should focus on the death rate and clusters,” said the doctor who asked for anonymity citing his involvement in government policy.

“The death toll in the last 24 hours is only 13 fatalities. That is still tragic for the individual families but in terms of public policy, a very successful implementation of restrictions and vaccinations.”

The doctor added that a low death rate means public health policy should be focused on economic recovery and getting the country back to normal rather than panicking over increased numbers.

“The other focus must be on clusters, instead of focusing on total numbers, restrictions should be tailor-made to specific clusters and restrictions in localities,” he said.

“Think back to December and the specific restrictions we introduced to Samut Sakhon. That is the model we should go back to now instead of trying to restrict the country as a whole and dooming it economically.”

https://www.thaienquirer.com/36342/only-one-covid-related-number-thais-should-concentrate-on-senior-doctor-says/

[vinapu]

49 minutes ago, reader said:

 

“Our vaccination rate and our booster rate is still climbing while Omicron has proven to be less severe than earlier variants, that means we should focus on the death rate and clusters,” said the doctor who asked for anonymity citing his involvement in government policy.

 

The doctor added that a low death rate means public health policy should be focused on economic recovery and getting the country back to normal rather than panicking over increased numbers.

“The other focus must be on clusters, instead of focusing on total numbers, restrictions should be tailor-made to specific clusters and restrictions in localities,” he said.

 

not only he is right IMNSHO but encouraging part is that he seems to be involved in Governmet policy so may have some influence over decisions.

[vinapu]

9 hours ago, Gaybutton said:

When planning a trip to Thailand I suggest taking very seriously the possibility that they could close the borders, both coming and going, without warning. 

..................

I would not suggest brushing it off with an "it won't happen to me".  When people say it won't happen to me, that's when it happens - to them.

.............................

If you are planning a trip to Thailand, make sure you're not wearing rose colored glasses while doing your planning.   Remember - think with your brain, not your crotch.                                                                                                                               

I must say I agree with you in general but on another hand I'm happy I did not believe in closing borders, I was sure that it won't happen to me and I took my best rose tinted glasses, jumped on occasion and spent almost whole December  in Thailand. No , I was not thinking with my crotch, I took calculated risk that if they reverse relaxation it won't be that fast and glad I did not miscalculated.

So my advice to readers will be , if window of opportunity opens , jump into it just like I did but do not expect too much and  nice surprise may materialize.

It's supported by my own experience to which you are  witness as we met there on more than one occasion.

 

  

 

[vaughn]

15 hours ago, Gaybutton said:

That's the problem.  When planning a trip to Thailand I suggest taking very seriously the possibility that they could close the borders, both coming and going, without warning.  They've done it before and a lot of travelers found themselves stuck in Thailand, some for weeks, some for months, unexpectedly - with no way to return home.

I definitely would plan for that possibility.  I would not suggest brushing it off with an "it won't happen to me".  When people say it won't happen to me, that's when it happens - to them.

Speaking only for myself, considering past history and precedent, the way things are right now, and where things seem to be headed, the last thing I would be doing would be planning international travel without a damned good reason.  I would wait until things stabilize and stay that way and I would wait until the places I want to go, including the bars, are actually open.  I would not rely on when the powers-that-be say they can open. 

And the next consideration - I will repeat what I've said before.  There is a big difference between the bars can open and the bars will open.  I have no idea how many bars, especially go-go bars, plan to open as quickly as possible, assuming they survived to be able to open at all.  Even when they do open or reopen, how many boys will there be working in the bars?

If you are planning a trip to Thailand, make sure you're not wearing rose colored glasses while doing your planning.   Remember - think with your brain, not your crotch.                                                                                                                               

I certainly don't have a 'won't happen to me' attitude, I know the risks, and I know what I can and can't control.

I'm at a point now where I have vacation days I am required to use, my last opportunity is going to be April, so I'm either doing the trip or sitting at home wasting them. I'll have to make that call by the start of March.

I'm not worried if bars are closed or there aren't many boys, there's plenty for me to do in Thailand to keep me happy.

 

[Gaybutton]

1 hour ago, vaughn said:

I'm at a point now where I have vacation days I am required to use

Yes, that must be a problem for many - use them by a certain date or lose them.  Of course no law says Thailand has to be the holiday destination.  If it were me, I would have a Plan B in case things look really bad for going to Thailand or if Thailand closes the borders even before the vacation days.

Also, if it were me, especially since the current situation in Thailand continues to deteriorate rather than improve, I would avoid as much as possible having to pay anything in advance - just in case.

 

"If one plan fails, it's good to have another"

-  Sam Jaffe (Simonides), 'Ben Hur'

[vaughn]

26 minutes ago, Gaybutton said:

Yes, that must be a problem for many - use them by a certain date or lose them.  Of course no law says Thailand has to be the holiday destination.  If it were me, I would have a Plan B in case things look really bad for going to Thailand or if Thailand closes the borders even before the vacation days.

 

"If one plan fails, it's good to have another"

-  Sam Jaffe (Simonides), 'Ben Hur'

It is a problem for the company I work for, I've delayed as long as I can, but finance is on our backs because large amounts of unused annual leave is a liability.

My plan b is staying home, it's hard enough coming up with plans to cover all of the possible outcomes of getting to Thailand let alone trying to work out other countries. I have circumstances I can't get into on here, but my work limits where I can travel/transit.

I'll wait and see what happens, we're in a better position than we were this time last year.

[Guest]

Flights: Refundable or can be rescheduled (reject any airline with unreasonable terms)

Quarantine/Sandbox hotel: Many are refundable on Agoda

Other hotels: Refundable or no deposit

Insurance: Probably non-refundable

COVID tests: Non-refundable, but "last minute"

 

In my view, the non-refundable portion of this presented an acceptable risk.  However, with Thailand now in a phase of tightening restrictions, the odds have changed slightly.

[Boy69]

1 hour ago, z909 said:

Flights: Refundable or can be rescheduled (reject any airline with unreasonable terms)

Quarantine/Sandbox hotel: Many are refundable on Agoda

Other hotels: Refundable or no deposit

Insurance: Probably non-refundable

COVID tests: Non-refundable, but "last minute"

 

In my view, the non-refundable portion of this presented an acceptable risk.  However, with Thailand now in a phase of tightening restrictions, the odds have changed slightly.

I lost track here when Thailand cancelled the test & go option as I understand only left the sandbox Phuket option with quarantine ?

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Boy69 said:

I lost track here when Thailand cancelled the test & go option as I understand only left the sandbox Phuket option with quarantine ?

 

They are adding other sandboxes, but in Ko Samui and even smaller islands.

So it's a sandbox, or for the vaccinated, 7 day quarantine.  A sandbox would be the obvious choice.