Omicron CoV VOC Brazil, etc

[Riobard]

It’s a challenge to get a read on this. São Paulo, ordinarily doing solid pandemic surveillance for the state throughout the pandemic, abruptly stopped reporting cases 3 weeks ago. 
 

[Riobard]

[Riobard]

Oh, here we go. São Paulo city and state hospitalizations now increasing. Not surprisingly, urban metropolis proportionally higher. If trend of less severity holds up then hospital admissions are a reasonable ‘canary in coal mine’ surrogate marker for Omicron background incidence even if community diagnosis has largely slipped. I assume the bed count is differentiated from influenza cases. In any case, Omicron seems definitely growing in new CoV case incidence. This suggests it might be wise to periodically rapid antigen test approaching a date at which one leaves Brazil, so as to help avoid being caught off guard by a test-positive closer to boarding. 

If Omicron follows the typical vastly exponential increase pattern seen elsewhere, whether quantified or not in Brazil, one might expect renewed venue restrictions for the sake of preserving health care delivery capacity. 

[Riobard]

Now updated to 317 (city) and 615 (state) admissions in one day, respectively. I should note that the SP city tally is subsumed within the state tally; when teased out it simply reflects proportionality. I believe that the greater metropolitan population is close to one-half the state population. 

About 10,000 cases presenting with respiratory symptoms presumed COVID at São Paulo city hospitals over the first 3 days of the year. Omicron progressively predominant. 

Rapid antigen testing appointments getting hard to come by due to surging demand leading to supply deficits at pharmacies, etc. I am not sure about molecular test eg RT-PCR accessibility in locations previously referenced here on the board.

[Riobard]

Correction: São Paulo city about 11-12,000,000 so about 1/4 state pop 46,000,000

 

[Xclay]

Thanks for the interesting info. 😷

Good news that Omicron is rapidly supplanting the more dangerous variants! 🤞

[Riobard]

Flu is increasingly wreaking havoc. Here’s a lead for Sampa vaccination if you are there and have yet to be inoculated, in spite of its apparent current reduced efficacy, though it might not yet be open to adults under age 60 (as of 28 Dec); possibly now added.

And flu is likely more particulate/droplet than aerosol, so more caution and hygiene handling surfaces, masks, etc.

There may be public injection sites at the Rio beaches. One July in Leme near the Fisherman’s Walk there a nurse approached asking if I wanted vaccination on the spot. There may be a current off-season campaign. 

https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/saude/noticia/2022-01/sp-faz-vacinacao-contra-covid-19-e-influenza-em-todos-os-postos?amp

[Riobard]

And a lead at the Gloria Metro entrance as you head to Clube 117. They were one of the international sites for a CoV vaccination trial in which I participated:

[Riobard]

Now apparently startling upswing in new case growth to 100/100K on Saturday. Not sure if it’s a retroactive data dump following holiday reporting lapse. I think not. Likely an absolute .1% per capita single day tally and most probably an extensive undercount.  Upcoming week should help reveal trend. 

Progressively increasing hospitalizations. 

40% probability of at least one active CoV case in a random group of 10; 99% probability of at least one active case in a group of 44. 

[asdsrfr]

I hope as this pandemic evolves we progress pass stats, graphs ,lockdowns, and even masks to a place where we simply lead our lives. I think that's coming soon. Even England has dropped the negative test requirement to return home. I hope the USA does the same. I am a physician and have taken care of many Covid patients. If you are vaccinated and boosted the chances of serious illness in a basically healthy person are minimal now. I recently caught Covid and it was no big deal. In the future I hope we can all stay home when we are sick and get recommended posters and vaccines and get on with our lives..

[Riobard]

4 hours ago, asdsrfr said:

I hope as this pandemic evolves we progress pass stats, graphs ,lockdowns, and even masks to a place where we simply lead our lives. I think that's coming soon. Even England has dropped the negative test requirement to return home. I hope the USA does the same. I am a physician and have taken care of many Covid patients. If you are vaccinated and boosted the chances of serious illness in a basically healthy person are minimal now. I recently caught Covid and it was no big deal. In the future I hope we can all stay home when we are sick and get recommended posters and vaccines and get on with our lives..

Unless I’m mistaken it’s the actual epidemiological surveillance tracking that underpins the assumptions about seriousness you yourself are making, so that piece is surely progressive, ongoing by necessity, and far from superfluous. I don’t think N of 1 anecdotal tells the story. Glad you got through, though, as would be now thankfully expected. Naturally the hope for better days is shared, although the limbic brain activated on alert with recent bloodbath memories is surely functionally adaptive. 

[Riobard]

So now São Paulo city and state COVID hospitalizations have quickly jumped up to 25% the pandemic peak, when the situation seemed dire. This current trend does not appear to abate, and this is a context of very high levels of full vaccination, unlike said peak of Spring 2021. Less disease severity coupled with higher case incidence, albeit proportionally less CoV morbidity, does not portend less strain on the health care sector or improved net absolute population consequences unless the Omicron variant quickly burns itself out. 

[Guest]

here is latest Brazil Covid data from New York Times - while per capita infections are a fraction of US, the trends are similar to US early December.  Looks as if Omicron is taking off 

 

 

[Riobard]

15 hours ago, Slvkguy said:

here is latest Brazil Covid data from New York Times - while per capita infections are a fraction of US, the trends are similar to US early December.  Looks as if Omicron is taking off 

 

 

Thanks, it’s a bit misleading due to surveillance methodologies in Brazil. 95 Sunday likely a data dump of several prior days where reported incidence was in 0 range; essentially off-duty sitch. 16-17 Monday (as in this table) perhaps reflective of trend of day of rest affecting reporting. 35 Tues perhaps another retroactive catch-up from weekend.  Remainder of week could tell the story better. The  astronomical percentage increases in the table are also reflective of previous testing hiatus situation many regions. The true 14-day change should eventually be better representative of reality in a few weeks if testing and reporting stabilizes. But the temporal curve trajectories tell that part of the story as well. Hospital admissions a good indicator as population testing accuracy, as you know, has thrown up its hands.

[mixer17]

I cancelled my trip that was supposed to leave today due to omicron surging.  Any one know how Rio is doing with the surge?  I regret the cancellation but with New Years celebration having ended, I thought this time would not be the best to travel. 

[Primeone385]

2 hours ago, mixer17 said:

I cancelled my trip that was supposed to leave today due to omicron surging.  Any one know how Rio is doing with the surge?  I regret the cancellation but with New Years celebration having ended, I thought this time would not be the best to travel. 

@mixer17 I’m in the process of trying to figure if I should move mine back from March to April or May! Cause I don’t want to go if the. Brazil experience that @Novarunner , @NoGagSuckerSF , and @Latbear4blk talk about. 

[Novarunner]

Huh….?  Other than wearing a mask when entering a building, my recent trips to Brazil were not impacted by COVID.

[Riobard]

5 hours ago, mixer17 said:

I cancelled my trip that was supposed to leave today due to omicron surging.  Any one know how Rio is doing with the surge?  I regret the cancellation but with New Years celebration having ended, I thought this time would not be the best to travel. 

Very prudent, if you have the flex to defer and your balanced assessment of personal risk is that avoidance of CoV infection is paramount. What I can tell you from paying attention to some of the local news is that the science-based pandemic management table here is advising a renewed Rio ‘lockdown’ but that will likely not materialize owing to reluctance to again endure the secondary impacts we know to be characteristically problematic viz economy etc.

The air is microbially dirty; it’s the new poop. The more people congregating in any human context the bigger the bugger deuce, metaphorically speaking. 

By now everybody should grasp that observable pandemic mitigation infrastructure and implementation is not a reflection of case incidence and the accompanying risk of infection that necessitates medical intervention for a subgroup of infected. 

[Latbear4blk]

10 hours ago, Novarunner said:

Huh….?  Other than wearing a mask when entering a building, my recent trips to Brazil were not impacted by COVID.

I was in Rio in November 2020, with almost no international flights and the city empty of foreigners. My experience was definitely impacted by COVID, as I wanted. I wanted to experience ghostly airports and a Rio full of locals and with almost no aliens. I understand everything is back to normal now.

Back then, my saunas experience was not impacted other than wearing masks, as you said. My overall experience was impacted because of my precautions, but if I traveled today I would be willing to take risks I was not ready to take in 2020.

@Primeone385,If you are not over concerned about getting infected and having to deal with potential unexpected traveling challenges, go. You will have a great time.