Why China won’t open up after lockdown anytime soon

[reader]

From Channel News Asia

 

There’s a reason why China exists inside its own bubble but how long can it hold out as the rest of the world slowly open their borders, asks an observer.

HONG KONG: What is normal in a post-pandemic world? How can the idea of a return to a normal state of affairs be articulated and realised by a state?

The answers to these questions depends what country you are talking about. At present China equates a return to normal with zero COVID-19 cases, where China is safe from imported cases of the virus and where its population is protected from local transmissions.

To achieve this, China has locked itself away from most of the world and put its population through an extensive campaign of vaccinations.

According to China’s National Health Commission, by the first week of September, Chinese authorities had administered over 2 billion doses of the three Chinese vaccines currently available.

Although it is unclear how many people have received both doses, it is an impressive effort. But this does not mean that China has successfully returned to normal.

The efficacy of local vaccines is the biggest hurdle the government faces in moving towards a post-pandemic normal.

China has undertaken a massive inoculation campaign and any vaccine is a good vaccine if it prevents the onset of severe symptoms or death but not all vaccines are equal.

Chinese vaccine manufacturers Sinopharm and Sinovac have not released comprehensive phase three data for their vaccines for peer review. There was a May study on Sinopharm’s two vaccines, but it was notable for not including certain vulnerable populations nor those beyond the West Asian countries.

Sinovac is yet to release its phase three vaccine data, but World Health Organization (WHO) estimates — released when it was given emergency approval — stated that it prevents symptomatic disease in only 51 per cent of the inoculated population.

Both the efficacy of the vaccines and the transparency of the data supporting them is well below that offered by other vaccine producers.

This is a problem because most of the world has chosen a different pathway to post-pandemic normal.

Whether through conscious policy decisions to prioritise economic security over health security, political choices, access to more efficacious vaccines or simply because countries could not access sufficient vaccines for their populations, most of the world is living with the virus and its consequences.

As a result, COVID-19 is going to be globally endemic rather than eradicated. The difference between these pathways presents major hurdles for China, medically, economically and politically.

If China is to shift towards a post-pandemic normal, it will have to accept a greater likelihood of community transmissions than is presently the case. There is no indication that such a scenario is presently acceptable to the Chinese government.

Given this reality, the Chinese government is unlikely to seek a new post-pandemic normal of opening up anytime soon. It first needs to deal with or significantly mitigate the medical, economic, and most importantly, the political threats posed by opening its borders and returning to the world.

For now, China exists inside its own bubble. It is a safe but unsustainable option for any country seeking to return to normal.

Nicholas Thomas is Associate Professor at the Department of Asian and International Studies at the City University of Hong Kong. This commentary first appeared on The East Asia Forum.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/china-covid-19-vaccine-travel-borders-economy-2209486

[Guest]

Interesting.    I was also thinking China might maintain controls for longer, at least until they have developed/copied and distributed a vaccine with much higher efficacy.  Buying Pfizer or Moderna would be too much loss of face ?

As a result, we might get a window of opportunity in 2021/22 with some very nice tourist destinations opening and none of the usual overcrowding.    One I would really like is traveling through Laos on the new railway, before the hordes arrive from the north.

[TMax]

Just going to post the link here as it's a pretty long article but well worth the read. It looks like Sinopharm and Walvax Biotechnology are starting up on the mRNA vaccines now. 

Nations switch away from Chinese vaccines

[njalondon]

On the plus side at least it'll be harder for the next plague to leave China. For now...

[PeterRS]

China is also terrified about Covid and the Winter Olympics due to open on February 4. One reason why it has banned international visitors. Only Chinese can witness the events. Hopefully those with the really cute guys - e.g. figure skating - will be televised live. Will Yuzuru Hanyu be able to make it three golds in a row? Or will his competition like Nathan Chan from the USA and Shoma Uno from Japan pip him to the post this time? Hanyu is one of the most recognised and loved Japanese athletes and has earned a fortune in endorsements since his first win in Sochi in 2014.

This is Hanyu's short programme at the 2018 Olympics. Apart from his technical excellence, I just love the way he interprets the music and the emotion he invests in it. And of course that smile and the tight little ass!!!

There has been much internet chatter about his being gay, although nothing definitive has ever been written. He trains in Toronto with the gay Brian Orser and sometimes has his costumes made by a gay designer. I don't know where the teddy bears came from and how that tradition started. But he is often seen clasping one of them after his programme.