PM says restrictions could be lifted next month amid signs of infection slowdown

[reader]

From The Nation

PM Prayut Chan-o-cha on Wednesday announced Covid-19 restrictions could be eased next month amid signs the infection rate is slowing. However, tighter Covid-19 safety measures were needed to combat the outbreak of Delta variant, he said via Facebook.

Prayut acknowledged the daily caseload had risen above 20,000 since lockdown measures were imposed last month but said the number of patients recovering is now higher than the infection rate.

He said his main concern was the fatality rate, especially among the vulnerable group of elderly people and those with underlying health conditions. 
Thailand’s daily Covid death toll soared to a record 312 on Wednesday.

Prayut said the infection rate will likely reach its peak this month before dropping in September. This would allow authorities to adjust the control measures and relax some restrictions on businesses and activities, he added.

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) recently extended lockdown measures in Bangkok and 28 other provinces until the end of August. 
The CCSA has meanwhile decided to elevate safety measures under the Universal Prevention method to be practised by every individual.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004867

[ggobkk]

Wishful Prime Ministering

[Guest]

8 hours ago, reader said:

PM Prayut Chan-o-cha on Wednesday announced Covid-19 restrictions could be eased next month amid signs the infection rate is slowing. However, tighter Covid-19 safety measures were needed to combat the outbreak of Delta variant

Has he contradicted himself there ?   

Or does he mean tighten measures now & then relax in September ?

He can, of course, do whatever he pleases with restrictions.   However, with the delta variant and only a small proportion of the population vaccinated, there will be consequences if he relaxes restrictions in September.  

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, z909 said:

there will be consequences if he relaxes restrictions in September.  

make it October, I still have unused ticket from last year

[Boy69]

8 hours ago, z909 said:

Has he contradicted himself there ?   

Or does he mean tighten measures now & then relax in September ?

The PM is hopeless and doesn't have any clue how to handle the Covid 19 crisis .

[Londoner]

He's probably good at jungle warfare....which is what his training and career prepared him for.  

[spoon]

2 hours ago, Londoner said:

He's probably good at jungle warfare some 40 years ago.... which is what his training and career prepared him for.  

 

[vinapu]

7 hours ago, Boy69 said:

The PM is hopeless and doesn't have any clue how to handle the Covid 19 crisis .

last year at this time we were all full of praise how Thailand is doing well handling covid.

Now it turns is was easy handling something which wasn't there at first place.

But to be honest, which government is handling covid really well ? Everywhere it looks like 'try and see" and luck or lack of it mixture

[Guest]

1 hour ago, vinapu said:

last year at this time we were all full of praise how Thailand is doing well handling covid.

Last year, Thailand locked down enough to pretty much get rid of covid, which was good.

Then they screwed up by allowing people to sneak in over land borders, which was inconsistent with the policy applied to inbound tourists.   That was a big failure.   With almost 400,000 people in the army and naff all for them to do, they could easily have sent them to police the border.    Are armies not supposed to be there to protect the country ?

They then failed to procure sufficient vaccines.   Also, some of the procurement was sub-optimal.

They have also not adjusted thinking to the delta variant.

So 2020 was a "pass" and 2021 is a "fail".

 

 

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, z909 said:

 

So 2020 was a "pass" and 2021 is a "fail".

 

 

fate shared by few other countries in the region and elsewhere

[Ruthrieston]

The UK headed by BoJo the Bumbling Buffoon has made a far bigger mess of handing the pandemic with a death rate far higher than Thailand, and infections still 50% higher and deaths still 100 a day. Thankfully the excellent National Health Service has enabled a vaccine programme far greater than Thailand, but even double vaccinated people can still get really ill. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Ruthrieston said:

Thankfully the excellent National Health Service has enabled a vaccine programme far greater than Thailand, but even double vaccinated people can still get really ill. 

You're forgetting that the government procured the vaccines to enable our excellent vaccine programme.     The government is also way better than the alternative, which if I remember correctly was led by Jeremy Corbyn at the last election.   The electorate made the obvious choice.

As for the NHS, the standard of care very much depends on where you are.   Where I am, the local GP surgery is a disgrace.  They make customers queue out in the street and the doctor never shows up on time in the morning, which is just disgraceful when there are customers waiting.  They will then typically attempt to guess a diagnosis, rather than apply some science and get relevant tests done.    Which is why GPs frequently fail to diagnose serious conditions.    In places, the NHS is a disgrace.    Customers need some choice in the UK.

[reader]

From Thai Enquirer

Bangkok considers re-opening dine-in with following restrictions

The government are considering a proposal to allow dining-in in Bangkok with some restrictions. Here is a quick recap:

https://www.thaienquirer.com/31760/infographics-bangkok-considers-re-opening-dine-in-with-following-restrictions/

======================================

Number of waiting-list for hospital beds significantly drop over the past three weeks

The amount of Covid patients who are waiting for hospital beds has significantly dropped over the past three weeks, the Ministry of Public Health said on Thursday.  

“The numbers of patients with mild, moderate and severe symptoms who are waiting have clearly reduced after the launched of the home isolation and the community isolation programs,” said Dr Somsak Akksilp, Director-General of the Department of Medical Services (DMS).

There were 39 registered Covid patients waiting for a hospital bed on August 25 compared to nearly 7,000 on May 31.

From the 39 patients who were waiting for a hospital bed, 16 have mild symptoms (green group), 21 patients with moderate symptoms (yellow group) and two severe cases (red group).  

“There are not that many patients within the yellow and red groups who have to wait for more than 24 hours to find a hospital bed,” Somsak said.

Registered Covid patients in the green group will enter either the home isolation program or the community isolation program.

For home isolation, they will receive medical equipment, medicine, food and a way to communicate with a medical worker while they isolated themselves at home.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/31829/number-of-waiting-list-for-hospital-beds-significantly-drop-over-the-past-three-weeks/

[macaroni21]

I was pleasantly surprised to read in a recent report that India's daily number of new Covid cases has recently been in the range of 20,000 -- that is until the latest news that Kerala State alone found 30,000 new cases yesterday. Only about four months ago, in April 2021, India was seeing roughly 400,000 cases a day.

Nobody believes that figure then was an accurate count. But whatever the flaws behind the April figure, the same flaws are probably behind the latest figures. What's perhaps significant is not whether the figures are accurate, but the ratio between the two equally flawed figures. The number of daily new infections have come down to about 5 - 10 percent of the peak figure from four months ago. The governent of India didn't do a good job then, and though vaccinations are ramping up, aren't doing too well either. The country just cannot withstand lockdowns.

The Indian example gives cause for optimism. Once past the peak, we may be able to hope for daily new infections to fall to a tenth of the peak figure within about four months (that's December, folks!). So, instead of reporting 20,000 cases a day, Thailand may, by then, be reporting 1,000 - 2,000 cases a day. Still a little worrying, but not a terrible figure considering the country's total population of 60 million. Also, Thailand's vaccination rate is looking hopeful too.

That said, I am also conscious of the possibility that India's daily infection is falling unusually fast because its peak was so, so bad. About 68% of India's population was exposed to Covid (i.e. they have antibodies) and thus huge swathes of the population now have natural immunity.

Since Thailand's worst number might not have been as bad as India's (relative to population), natural immunity may not be as widespread in Thailand, which can only mean that the fall-off in infections over the next few months may be more gradual. Maybe it won't be 1,000 - 2,000 in December, but perhaps more like 5,000?

Would that be good enough to re-open?

France with a similar population as Thailand currently has about 20,000 new cases a day. UK, also similar population has about 30,000 a day. And both countries are slowly opening up. (But they have better healthcare capacity, so they can risk it).

The news story about Kerala State (https://www.dnaindia.com/india/video-india-reports-44658-fresh-covid-19-cases-with-30007-from-kerala-alone-2908164) must be seen in context. As explained in a BBC story from earlier this month (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-58054124), the problem may stem from testing. Kerala smply tests more people than other Indian states. 

This too appears to be a weak spot for Thailand. I wouldn't take its daily count as accurate either.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, macaroni21 said:

Maybe it won't be 1,000 - 2,000 in December, but perhaps more like 5,000?

Would that be good enough to re-open?

France with a similar population as Thailand currently has about 20,000 new cases a day. UK, also similar population has about 30,000 a day. And both countries are slowly opening up. (But they have better healthcare capacity, so they can risk it).

The UK has removed almost all restrictions, with the exception of the idiotic travel rules.   The vaccines enable this.   Many people still get covid, but only a small percentage get severe cases.

Thailand's daily vaccination rate is now in the same ballpark as the UK back in March.   The quality of vaccines may be lower at present, but I think Thailand is on the same path.   Those who got Sinovac will probably get a booster of something better.  

Also, it is reported that over 27 million people in Thailand have received at least one dose already.  Progress is being made and at this rate, a lot can change for the better by December.  

[spoon]

Another thing that i have yet to see is thailand's positivity rate, which will give some indication that the testing done was sufficient or not, which indirectly tells us whether the reported daily new cases are representative or under reported. Malaysia's positivity rate as been in 14-15% percent for few weeks now, so we are not doing enough testing for sure. So not suprised that our daily cases hasnt been going down for months now.

Our vaccination rate has been great and hospitals in the states with most cases previously are seeing some light in the end of the tunnel with a trend of lower ICU admission, but other states are now seeing higher cases and hospitalization, mainly those who are still lagging behind in their vaccination.

Based on this, i think thailand will see some sort of increasing cases in the next few weeks, as a result of restriction relaxation announced. We observe similar trend here. Only reason our daily number stabilize to around 22k is because some states are seeing a down trend, while some seeing an up trend due to the various level of restriction. Our gov wont do a proper full lockdown as we cant afford it. So i dont think thailand will see cases going down as fast as we hope.

Our only hope for optimism is for thai gov to come to a realization that they cant afford a lockdown/restrictions and start opening up, making sure the healthcare system will be able to cope, and of course, push harder on the vaccination program.

Just read the news that UK just added Thailand to the red alert zone under their travel rules.

[Patanawet]

From Bangkok Post today  -- u-turn or 360 degree turn?

Starting Oct 1, only those who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 or have a negative antigen test result will be allowed to dine-in at restaurants and seek out services deemed a high risk for virus transmission in "dark red" provinces, where maximum Covid-19 restrictions apply.

More: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2176823/jab-proof-for-dine-in-on-oct-1

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

Govt may lift emergency decree

The government is considering lifting the emergency decree when the current extension expires at the end of this month, which would also mean the closure of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, a top security official said on Monday.

National Security Council secretary-general Gen Natthapol Nakpanich said the government and CCSA were making the necessary preparations.

If the decree was not extended, the Communicable Disease Control Act would be used to manage the Covid-19 pandemic, under the auspices of the Public Health Ministry, he said. 

The end of the decree would also mean the end of the CCSA, which was set up under the decree to handle the coronavirus situation, he said.

The ministry was responsible for fighting disease outbreaks before the decree came into force.

Gen Natthapol, who is the CCSA operations chief, admitted some groups felt uneasy about the use of the decree. He said use of the disease control act under the ministry would be enough to control the spread of the virus.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2177327/govt-may-lift-emergency-decree

[Guest]

According to this Bangkok Post article, they still seem to be thinking that vaccinating 50 million people brings herd immunity (~70% of the population).     I've no idea how they reach that conclusion.      Even if the vaccines prevented all transmission, 70% would seem marginal and the vaccines are known to not prevent all transmission, just reduce it.

 

"Authorities have claimed Thailand is halfway to reaching Covid-19 herd immunity, six months after the first group of people were inoculated.

According to Public Health Ministry figures on Sunday, 25.2 million people have received the first jab, 10 million have got the second shot and 604,023 have had the booster dose.

Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, on Monday welcomed the 25-million milestone, saying 25 million more would be vaccinated to achieve the goal. "We have already reached halfway," he said."

 

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2177287/taweesilp-thailand-halfway-to-herd-immunity

[vinapu]

2 hours ago, z909 said:

According to this Bangkok Post article, they still seem to be thinking that vaccinating 50 million people brings herd immunity (~70% of the population).     I've no idea how they reach that conclusion.      Even if the vaccines prevented all transmission, 70% would seem marginal and the vaccines are known to not prevent all transmission, just reduce it.

 

perhaps that's the goal - learn to live with contained covid as attempts at "zero covid" policies  seem to be just pipe dream.

My sister lives in a country with slightly above half of population vaccinated and that along with other standard measures was enough to bring infection rate down exponentially ( about 100 times in 5 months ). Warnings about fourth wave from mid-Aug so far did not materialize that much either.

Perhaps THAT virus requires less than standard 70% for herd immunity? just saying as I'm not neither very interested in medical stuff nor qualified to say much ( although being built by qualified staff did not prevent Titanic from sinking ) .

[Londoner]

Perhaps the vaccination programme is intensified. Perhaps gay travellers return in decent numbers to Thailand in January. The bars are open, the apps are once more flourishing, the guys have returned. But how many visitors will return to their previous life-styles of frequent sex with different partners? and if so, will they require evidence of vaccination? or even the wearing of masks? I saw one such encounter on a porn site recently.

 

[Vessey]

9 hours ago, Londoner said:

Perhaps the vaccination programme is intensified. Perhaps gay travellers return in decent numbers to Thailand in January. The bars are open, the apps are once more flourishing, the guys have returned. But how many visitors will return to their previous life-styles of frequent sex with different partners? and if so, will they require evidence of vaccination? or even the wearing of masks? I saw one such encounter on a porn site recently.

 

Mask porn? haha

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Londoner said:

Perhaps the vaccination programme is intensified. Perhaps gay travellers return in decent numbers to Thailand in January. The bars are open, the apps are once more flourishing, the guys have returned. But how many visitors will return to their previous life-styles of frequent sex with different partners? and if so, will they require evidence of vaccination? or even the wearing of masks? I saw one such encounter on a porn site recently.

I'm not sure if the trade on the apps ever stopped.     OK, slightly fewer boys and fewer farang, but it was still an option.

People have multiple partners despite HIV.   So I don't think a relatively low risk disease like Covid will stop them, unless there's a serious worsening in the variants.   Also, wearing masks with a partner in bed seems rather pointless.

I predict most people will carry on as before.

[Gaybutton]

10 hours ago, z909 said:

unless there's a serious worsening in the variants.

That very well might happen if that new MU variant makes it into Thailand.  So far it hasn't, but I think it is inevitable that sooner or later it will.  If that happens, and since what I'm reading says the current vaccines are rather ineffective against it, don't be surprised if all the most difficult of the previous restrictions are right back in place again - possibly including border closings.

I hope everyone planning a holiday in Thailand makes damned sure about what is going on in Thailand before packing bags and booking flights and hotels.  This is no time to allow wishful thinking and/or your crotch to make your travel plans.  You better be very certain about the reality of what to expect.

[Guest]

The mu variant doesn't necessarily mean more friction.  

Although, if some countries have this variant and others don't, we could be on a slippery slope to more restrictions.

It's been around since January, so I don't imagine it's too bad.