Will Parts of Bangkok Really Be Under Water by 2050?

[PeterRS]

We have talked about and been warned about global warming for decades - and have done precious little. But this year's disastrous fires in the US, Europe and elsewhere, the massive rains affecting Europe, Japan and elsewhere and the record heat levels in North America's north-west, in Sicily and elsewhere must surely have driven home the fact that the world is fast running out of time. California is on the front line and is danger of running out of water. This video on the BBC website illustrates the effect of drought on Lake Oroville, California's second latest reservoir. The photographer has been following the falling water levels since 2014. The result is frightening. It is now at its lowest level since 1977. The Lake's hydro electric plant serving 800.000 homes has had to be taken offline for the first time ever.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-58232044

On Monday the US declared its first-ever water shortage in the country's largest reservoir Lake Mead and ordered water cuts for the Colorado River which feeds it. Water cuts will affect Nevada and its gambling mecca Las Vegas, Arizona and parts of Mexico which also receives water from the Lake. The lake serves the Hoover Dam. I took a helicopter trip to the Grand Canyon 14 years ago. First we flew over the Hoover Dam. Comparing a photo I took with one from Reuters taken two months ago you can make out the drop in water level. It does not seem much from the air but when you consider this is just an outlet for the massive Lake Mead, it is a lot. You can see the change in the water line on the left bank as you look closely at the photos.

2007 August

2021 June

Pho

Photo: Reuters

I wonder when the Bangkok area will see a repeat of the record disastrous floods last seen in 2011. These badly flooded Ayutthaya, closed Don Mueang airport for weeks and flooded much of the city. The economic cost was estimated at around $47 billion!  I have a friend whose house was unliveable for three moths as the ground floor was covered in almost 2 meters of black, stagnant water. October is usually the worst month when water from the north drains down the Chao Phraya river and meets the year's high tide coming up from the sea. They usually meet at Bangkok. I can recall when the Shangri La Hotel by the river had sandbags not only on its river wall but also around the swimming pool. That was in the 1990s!

With the city  still sinking at a rate of between 2 and 3 cms per year,  most estimates suggest that parts of Bangkok will be permanently under water by 2050. One estimate even goes so far as to suggest 30% of the city will be under water by 2030 if nothing is urgently done to halt land subsidence. After 2011 there was talk that many government departments should be moved further up river. As far as I know, nothing has been done about this.

Bangkok and Jakarta are two of the fastest sinking cities in the world. The Dutch research institute Deltares estimates that Jakarta is the fastest anywhere, sinking at 7.5 cms per year. In 2007 70% of the city was submerged by floods. At least the present government has announced the creation of a new capital 1,200 kms away from Jakarta on the island of Borneo. About 1 million people will be relocated and the cost is estimated at around $33 billion. Naturally it will end up being vastly more than this!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Jakarta-and-Bangkok-keep-sinking-as-infrastructure-projects-stall

[vinapu]

Now we can see foresight of some bar owners relocating from ground level of  soi Twilight to 2nd floors on Patpong 2. It'll be quite romantic to go to HotMale by gondola

[reader]

Hot Male Boat. Let them take you for a ride.

[fedssocr]

I think it will be sooner than that. As I said in a different forum recently, I can't believe there's been no plan made to move to higher ground or at least inland. It's going to take a long time to build a new capital. You'd expect with all of the corruption in Thailand that the opportunities for graft would be too good to pass up with all of the construction contracts. Instead they just keep pouring more money into BKK train systems and more and more big buildings.

Indonesia has been making their plan. And as nuts as the generals in Myanmar are, building Naypyidaw in the middle of nowhere seems kind of prudent with the rising water likely to wipe out Yangon and the delta.

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, fedssocr said:

 And as nuts as the generals in Myanmar are, building Naypyidaw in the middle of nowhere seems kind of prudent with the rising water likely to wipe out Yangon and the delta.

in order to move capital there's no need to built whole new city. Existing one can be utilized for the purpose. If Washington DC get under water , centrally located Frankfort , Kentucky is waiting, Capitol building already ready and any house can be painted white to serve as White House.

Burmese generals could utilize Mandalay and Thailand can be run out of Chiang Mai if needs arises

[vinapu]

5 hours ago, reader said:

Hot Male Boat. Let them take you for a ride.

I see suitable candidates, specially one in black west sitting under F BDR sign

[spoon]

6 minutes ago, vinapu said:

I see suitable candidates, specially one in black west sitting under F BDR sign

Yup, cant argue with that biceps lol

[vinapu]

3 minutes ago, spoon said:

Yup, cant argue with that biceps lol

I was first !

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, vinapu said:

Thailand can be run out of Chiang Mai if needs arises

Am I right in thinking that Malaysia was the first to move much of the government from Kuala Lumpur to the then-new city of Petaling Jaya?

The problem with transferring government offices is that these employ more than 700,000 people. Where in a smallish city like Chiang Mai do you find accommodation for them? I suppose you could also build new housing for them at the same time as the government buildings but how many would want to be relocated so far from family and friends? I am sure there must be a city a lot closer to Bangkok on higher ground and away from the Chao Phraya river. 

[PeterRS]

7 hours ago, reader said:

Hot Male Boat. Let them take you for a ride.

I think you might have hit on an ingenious way of dealing with flooding and making the bars less expensive. Surely the owners could make bigger boats into bars? So as you float along, the boys will be closer to the customers. Short time rooms could be more fun, especially if the boat crashes into a wave or two from time to time!

Come to think of it, there could be a fleet of large boats each offering different services. A bit like in the Hong Kong of olden days when you could have dinner on small boats floating around the Yacht Club. Other boats would come up to yours, each with different foods and drinks. It was a lovely rather cute way to dine. The only problem was that at the end of the meal as you left the boat, all the left overs and trash would be mindlessly thrown into the harbour! Not a good idea to have condoms and tissues floating around Bangkok's floods!

[spoon]

14 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

Am I right in thinking that Malaysia was the first to move much of the government from Kuala Lumpur to the then-new city of Putrajaya?. 

Yes, although the move is not due to sinking city, but rather the City center is getting crowded with uncontrolled traffic. Putrajaya does have its own mall, housings, schools etc just like any other city and its only 20km away, and is situated in between KL and the airport. Majority of the population are government workers, but there are housings that can be purchased by general population albeit at a higher price. I personally think the move to putrajaya was well thought out. 

Indonesia announced the plan to move their administration to Balikpapan on the Borneo Island. Its a city that is mostly driven by oil and gas, similar to Malaysia's Miri in Sarawak. Itll be interesting to see how it will pan out. 

I had the opportunity to visit Napiydaw once, but didnt manage to tour the area as it was a work visit. Basically fly from yangon in the morning, meeting at one of the hotel, and back to yangon in the evening. But that city is like a ghost town, with oversized everything. Not a good sight when the rest of the country are suffering. Cant say im suprised though. 

Would be interesting to see if thailand would be planning similar transistion though. 

[reader]

14 hours ago, spoon said:

Yup, cant argue with that biceps lol

Agree.

You could throw at dart at that crew and you wouldn't be disappointed.