Afghanistan - Yet Another US Mistake Is Now Happening!

[PeterRS]

So after 20 years the US is almost out of Afghanistan. The peace talks with the Taliban which have been going on for three years next month were clearly a sham. Now the Taliban has speedily controlled far more territory than anyone involved seemed to have anticipated and we can surely expect the entire country to be taken over once again by that ultra Islamic bunch. Women will be forced out of schools, will have to wear strict Islamic dress, music will be banned, adulterers stoned, gays thrown from buildings - and goodness knows what else.

That country has been fought over almost more than any other since the British disaster around 1840. In more recent times, the Soviet invasion at the end of 1979 achieved little apart from enabling the CIA to furnish a huge amount of weaponry to the local guerrillas, weapons that would eventually come back to haunt them. The CIA had actually been involved in Afghanistan even before the Russians arrived. As for their the Russian adventure, British journalist Patrick Brogan probably summed it up best when he wrote, "They got sucked into Afghanistan much as the United States got sucked into Vietnam, without clearly thinking through the consequences, and wildly underestimated the hostility they would arouse." The end result was a country all but ruined by war of whose population a third (over 5 million) had became permanent refugees.

The guerrillas which saw the back of the Soviet forces in 1989 were led by the Afghan Mujahideen backed by the US, the UK and other powers using it as a proxy in the Cold War. Having thereafter backed the moderate Northern Alliance under Ahmad Shah Massoud, the western powers were left rudderless when two Al Qaeda operatives posing as cameramen filming an interview blew themselves up along with Massoud two days before the 9/11 attacks. Soon thereafter the US troops and their allies attacked with the aim of quickly flushing out Osama bin Laden. As in Vietnam, they found themselves stuck in the Afghan mud!

President Biden may well be happy that his troops will all have departed by next month. But as has become a pattern, the USA's departure after invasion leaves a stink in the air. Just as happened at the end of the Vietnam war and just as happened at the end of the Iraq invasion, the US is leaving behind tens of thousands (if not many more) Afghanis and their families without whose help they would have had little chance of any success. And in all three cases it is not as though they did not have time to plan for these intelligent and now desperately afraid people's exit. Trump announced the withdrawal of troops 10 months ago. Biden, having hinted it for months, finally announced it four months ago. Yet the excuse now given for leaving behind so many who aided the US is that there has not been enough time to process the paperwork! I find that not merely utterly disgraceful. In my book it comes close to a war crime!

Who in future is going to believe what have become essentially US lies? "Don't worry! We will look after you," surely rings more than hollow when a translator working for the USA for years is looking down the barrel of a Taliban gun seconds before becoming a corpse in the dust.

[Lonnie]

The way we are leaving...like almost sneaking out in the middle of the night. Only horror and tragedy ahead.

[Guest]

I’m American and I wouldn’t trust our government to “do the right thing” since WW2.  Eisenhower gave a well-known speech to “beware the military/industrial complex”…..basically, going into wars to feed defense contractors and to scare the public into astronomical military budgets and corresponding adventures.  Our current military budget is equal to the next 10 highest national military budgets combined.  How many times can we destroy the planet ?  How many millions can we displace and kill ?  Of course Americans are guilty of war crimes, but they will never get prosecuted at the highest levels. So, the end of the Afghanistan adventure is entirely predictable…..just as it was 20 years ago and and several trillion dollars down the drain.  Meanwhile at home, virtually nothing is done about systemic racism, cycles of poverty, a failing healthcare system and political chaos/terrorism.  This is not the same idealistic country I remember growing up…perhaps these are just memories of my own privilege and it was never really true ?   

 

[Lonnie]

8 minutes ago, Slvkguy said:

 Meanwhile at home, virtually nothing is done about systemic racism, cycles of poverty, a failing healthcare system and political chaos/terrorism.  This is not the same idealistic country I remember growing up…perhaps these are just memories of my own privilege and it was never really true ?   

Wow Slvkguy ,you seem to have bought the whole "woke" spiel right down to questioning your own privilege. If this kind of cynicism takes hold there will be no future at all.

I certainly don't deny the problems you mention but to deny any progress is certainly wrong. Are you saying everything good about this country was and is an illusion?

Why would half the world want to come to such a hellhole?

[reader]

7 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Who in future is going to believe what have become essentially US lies?

There's no escaping the fact that the Taliban's rapid advances are a disheartening backdrop to the exit for American military forces. But you've conveniently omitted an important fact: the US isn't the only nation whose forces have been exiting Afghanistan.

The US may have had the lion's share of assets, but this was a NATO effort. Other countries that have pulled out include the UK, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, Netherlands, Romania, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Norway, Armenia and Mongolia.

You can heap as much blame on the US as you wish but at least tell the whole story and not just the side that fits your purpose. The US  may indeed be guilty of telling lies, but it certainly isn't alone in the deception.

Perhaps you no longer see the necessity for maintaining The North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The all-or-one and one-for-all concept of mutual military support may be an outdated concept. But we'll have to wait for the future to find out.

[Lucky]

The US has been helping Afghanistan for 20 years at the cost of billions of dollars and lives lost. In those 20 years, the Afghans have done nothing to get their act together. Why waste more money and lives then? Biden is doing the right thing. The onus is on the Afghans who couldn't come together to save their country.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Lonnie said:

Wow Slvkguy ,you seem to have bought the whole "woke" spiel right down to questioning your own privilege. If this kind of cynicism takes hold there will be no future at all.

I certainly don't deny the problems you mention but to deny any progress is certainly wrong. Are you saying everything good about this country was and is an illusion?

Why would half the world want to come to such a hellhole?

I’m a white male married to a black man.  I see up close & personal everyday the systemic racism in the US…literally, in all of our institutions.  George Floyd and so many other POC killed in cold blood for minor crimes, or no crimes at all….while an Insurrection at the US Capitol by white nationalists are coddled and given misdemeanors with time served.  Is this progress ?  Is this justice ? No, it’s two systems of justice based on race. And that’s just the most recent and obvious example…..I could go on.

American Exceptionalism is a myth - we are behind in almost every measure of civilized societies.  Why would so many want to come here ? Because they’ve watched too much television that paints a rosy picture of an otherwise failing nation state. Or, more likely - yes, it’s better than say Guatemala or El Salvador. So maybe the US is a less worse hellhole.

Btw - ”woke” isn’t exactly an insult and I didn’t “buy” anything.  I have lived in NYC, LA, SF, South Florida and in some rural areas too - the US was failing before Covid and the pandemic has only further shown our inability to handle a crisis.  And, in comparison to other rich developed countries, to say the US is failing is a vast understatement.  

I have the good sense to understand my privilege and to be compassionate to others not so fortunate - sorry if that offends you.

[PeterRS]

3 hours ago, reader said:

The US may have had the lion's share of assets, but this was a NATO effort. Other countries that have pulled out include the UK, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, Netherlands, Romania, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Norway, Armenia and Mongolia.

You can heap as much blame on the US as you wish but at least tell the whole story and not just the side that fits your purpose. The US  may indeed be guilty of telling lies, but it certainly isn't alone in the deception.

Perhaps you no longer see the necessity for maintaining The North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The all-or-one and one-for-all concept of mutual military support may be an outdated concept. But we'll have to wait for the future to find out.

Say what you wish, there is absolutely no denying the fact that the invasion of Afghanistan was entirely at the instigation of the United States, firstly on September 26 2001 through covert infiltration of CIA operatives and thereafter with military force. As a US ally, the UK also infiltrated MI6 operatives only days later. The war was not a NATO instigated war. NATO as an organisation was not involved until later. But UK forces played a major role very quickly and several hundred of its military were killed and many more wounded. The UK and other countries still have forces there which will not be withdrawn until the US withdrawal.

Some of the nations you list were part of the original Operation Enduring Freedom campaign. Others joined later as part of the NATO  lInternational Security Assistance Force. But let's not forget that many of these nations in your list contributed just a few dozen soldiers and/or support staff up to in some cases a few hundred. Very few had more than 1,000 or more troops in the country at any one time. 

And let's also not forget that the NATO countries did not resolve to leave Afghanistan. So to put any blame on them is pointless. The fact is they are withdrawing only because the United States announced unilaterally that it planned to leave. According to General McMaster on CNN this morning, the first date of the US departure from Afghanistan was not conveyed to NATO by the Trump administration which regarded NATO as an inconvenient, irrelevant sideshow rather than as allies. McMaster added that Biden also did not inform NATO officially in advance of his announcement in April and further failed to consult neighbouring countries in advance as it had hitherto promised to do! McMaster added his view that the departure from Afghanistan now is a disaster.

But the points you raise do not directly reply to the points I made. The fact is that the USA, often through the CIA, has been involved in operations in overseas countries from the time it, along with the British, arranged the ouster of the duly elected Prime Minister of Iran in 1953. In siding with the corrupt, repressive Shah, it thereby cooked its own goose when the Iranian public rebelled, the Shah was booted out and a violently anti-US regime installed in 1979, a regime that remains in power today and that has spread all manner of havoc in that part of the world. The main point of my OP was the lack of consideration given to the extreme urgency of getting those who had helped the USA out of the country before they are murdered by the Taliban. As stated, precisely the same happened after US invasions of Vietnam and Iraq. It is not as though the mandarins in Washington were not aware of the promises they made to those poor people. It is more the incompetence of those in the administration responsible for getting those people to freedom. That is the disgrace.

[Lonnie]

17 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

McMaster added that Biden also did not inform NATO officially in advance of his announcement in April and further failed to consult neighbouring countries in advance as it had hitherto promised to do! McMaster added his view that the departure from Afghanistan now is a disaster.

It's shameful...We give our allies and the Afghans a kick in the gut in our the rush to get out. We had no plan when we entered and have no plan as we depart.

[reader]

3 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

The main point of my OP was the lack of consideration given to the extreme urgency of getting those who had helped the USA out of the country before they are murdered by the Taliban. As stated, precisely the same happened after US invasions of Vietnam and Iraq. It is not as though the mandarins in Washington were not aware of the promises they made to those poor people. It is more the incompetence of those in the administration responsible for getting those people to freedom. That is the disgrace.

Again, you fail to acknowledge that all of those other NATO partners also utilized interpreters. And it's not as if the US hasn't already extricated thousands of them and their families, as did some of their NATO allies.

Should more have been removed earlier? By all means. But the picture you paint misleads readers into believing that none were withdrawn.

Perhaps you function under the notion that if the allies remained for another year or maybe another decade things would turn out better. But that's sheer nonsense and you know it. Afghanistan is governed by an ancient culture. The Russians believed that they could turn it to their advantage but eventually learned that it was an exercise in futility. It was a mistake for the US to believe it could succeed and that error will forever be measured in blood and treasure.

Lies may have indeed been told but you make a practice of telling half-lies.

[Lonnie]

3000 Back In

It's good  Biden  knows what he's doing. 😏

[fedssocr]

those 3000 are just to help get US staff out along with the translators and their families.

We've been there for 20 years. The last 10 years the situation has been falling apart. 

Vox had a good round up of the situation the other day with an intelligence expert.

https://www.vox.com/22618215/afghanistan-news-taliban-advance

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, fedssocr said:

those 3000 are just to help get US staff out along with the translators and their families.

Are you sure it includes the translators etc.? All the reports state it is to evacuate the Embassy staff and Afghan personnel who work in the Embassy. Nowhere do the reports state that the troops will evacuate the tens of thousands of Afghanis who have helped the troops in the field.

[tassojunior]

 20 years after our invasion and $1 Trillion later the puppet government collapses in a matter of days. Who woulda thought! Ever hear of Vietnam? 

Most of the terrorism problems of the US in the past 30 years have been a result of us starting the Taliban to get the Russians out. 

 

[PeterRS]

8 hours ago, reader said:

Again, you fail to acknowledge that all of those other NATO partners also utilized interpreters. And it's not as if the US hasn't already extricated thousands of them and their families, as did some of their NATO allies.

My OP was about what the US does when it leaves a country it has earlier invaded. The issue of other NATO and participant countries is a separate matter. 

You imply the USA has already evacuated "thousands of them." Funny, that's not what is being reported. As of August 7 the US had evacuated less than 1% of the more than 80,000 Afghans who assisted it. That does not even reach one thousand - and still leaves more than 79,000! 

"The plight of thousands of other Afghans who worked for U.S. troops or diplomats is even more uncertain and it's not clear if the administration will opt to fly them out. At the current tempo of 700 evacuees a week, it would take more than two years to fly out the roughly 20,000 Afghans who are in the SIV pipeline along with their families.

"Meanwhile, the Taliban is on the march, advancing on major cities and setting off panic among Afghan civilians."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/u-s-evacuation-afghans-likely-drag-after-american-troops-leave-n1276245

[Pete1111]

I'm not as well read on Afghanistan as some of you but the thread omits the CIA went in to lay the groundwork for getting Bin Laden.  But the US missed getting him there.  

What we know for sure is years later the CIA figured out where Bin Laden might be,  and  President Obama ultimately agreed to attack.

Two Black Hawk choppers flew from Afghanistan into Pakistan and got Bin Laden.

To me, it seemed the original mission was then achieved. 

But the mission morphed into other causes, perhaps based on unfounded information. 

Troops on the ground in Afghanistan originally suggested seeing no clear reason to be there.

After 20 years, I expect most of us agree.

Man's inhumanity to man will continue around the world.  Innocent people will suffer.  But our role in Afghanistan is over, or should be soon.

 

 

 

 

 

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, Pete1111 said:

Man's inhumanity to man will continue around the world.  Innocent people will suffer.  But our role in Afghanistan is over, or should be soon.

I totally agree with the first part. But not the second. What has the US achieved in Afghanistan? As you rightly point out, the original mission was accomplished many years ago - and in Pakistan at that, not in Afghanistan. But the US stayed partly because it had no real plan for what it was doing and what its exit strategy would be. So the US attempted, as it did in Iraq and as it attempted to do in Vietnam, to convert a society it did not understand (how many Iraqi, Vietnamese and Afghan experts worked in the State department? Almost none). Afghanistan is made up of a very large number of tribes unified for the most part only by common adherence to one religion. The US tried to fashion it into a country-wide democracy. It attempted to break down tribal values regarding education for women and their role in society and there being no need to adopt strict Islamic dress.

100% I agree these are laudable goals. But having gone much of the way, at least in terms of opening up Afghan society and the position of women, it decides to withdraw all its troops leaving the country about to be taken over yet again by strong Taliban Islamic militants who will overturn every gain made in the last two decades. That surely is the real tragedy of the US adventure in Afghanistan.

[reader]

Among America's mistake was pursuing the absurd notion that it could bring about a permanent change in Afghan culture, particularly as it pertains to the rule of law and the role of women that has existed for millennia. It was not lack of good intentions, it was lack of having a clearly defined exit policy (in crude terms, a "you come, I go" understanding. Instead it became party a save face, partly a political football in a game that never ends well.

If you distill all the above comments, there's one common theme that repeats itself. The biggest error was boots-on-the-ground 20 years ago that emerged after the attacks of 9/11 on American soil. We all have to ask--regardless of where we come from--how we think our government should have responded to such an event? Few countries, I believe, would have allowed it to go unchallenged. Emotions and national pride considerations were just too high. A group of neo-cons had the ear of the president and the rest is history.

In retrospect, it proved unfair to the long-suffering women of Afghanistan to lead them to believe that their role in society was to abruptly change forever. Just about everyone knew--but remained reluctant to admit--that the tenure of that change would cease when allied forced withdrew and local customs would be restored. That's how it has always been in recorded history.

There was also no good reason to believe that Afghans could govern themselves based on a western system of nation-wide elections. But western leaders found it politically unacceptable to let go of the idea. Warlords had run most of the land and Islam was the method of settling criminal and civil disputes. The official national government existed at the collective will of those warlords.

Last night I watched a an interview with the author of a new book, "The American War in Afghanistan," who was for many years in a unique position to observe the situation from the ground.  Carter Malkasian earned a doctorate in military history from the University of Oxford.   After completing his studies, he became a teacher at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. He then worked at the Center for Naval Analyses before spending time in Iraq conducting research in 2004 and 2006. In 2007, he worked with a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kunar Province in Afghanistan. He returned to Afghanistan in 2009 and spent two years in Garmsir District in Helmand Province as a State Department representative to the district. In Garsmir, he was known for his ability to speak Pashto and his rejection of typical personal security precautions. From May 2013 to August 2014, he worked as a political adviser to General Joseph Dunford, the commander of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

What impressed me about the interview was his precise yet dispassionate analysis of those years. It wasn't that the issues that confront us today were unknown, it seems that leaders--military and political (foreign and local) couldn't give up the ideal solutions they cultivated over time. The risk of doing to was too great because it could involve loss of face. They listened carefully to what he said but then defaulted to the original goals in a style so acceptable to diplomats.

So here's that interview. Take from it what you will. Hopefully it will help all of us put this in a context that allows us to move beyond blame and instead to a greater understanding and appreciation of the world we all inhabit today.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-did-the-us-lose-in-afghanistan-a-new-book-explores-decades-of-mistakes

[caeron]

After 20 years, it is over.  Stop spending lives and gold.

Once the Taliban step out of the shadows to attempt to govern what they hold, they get to become targets themselves.

[PeterRS]

I just listened to the interview. Carter Malkasian has much of interest and of fact to say. I only wish the interview could have been much longer for I feel he could enlighten us on many, many more issues that will be vital if the world is not to get into such a complicated conflict again.

Over the course of today, I have been watching various news programmes, most including the views of politicians, military men and commentators. According to several Ministers and former Ministers, the UK government seemed genuinely taken by surprise by Biden's announcement. It then talked to other NATO members to see if a small military team could remain in the country. Without the USA, there was just insufficient interest.

The other point made clearly by several is that effectively there has been no war in Afghanistan for the last 5 or so years. US forces, including those of NATO members, were there primarily to help train up the Afghan military, to provide command and control, some air support and to keep the Taliban as firmly as possibly in their own areas. US troop levels were less than 10% of their peak and deaths of US servicemen totalled less than 100 during this more than 5 year period. Most UK troops had left its main base in Helmand Province in 2014. A smaller number remained with the Americans and will be pulled out soon. Only 2 British troops were killed during this period.

The one lesson I wish the US had drawn from the adventure in Vietnam is the manner of its departure. In Vietnam, many US troops had to stay on specifically to train up the army of the corrupt government of South Vietnam. Despite Nixon's PR speeches about how successful this was, the fact is that it was spectacularly unsuccessful. Several major operations involving both US and South Vietnamese forces prior to the US departure had seen commanders disappearing and many troops without the guts to fight. The same seems to be generally true now, with a few notable exceptions, in Afghanistan.

The decision to pull out all remaining personnel from Saigon in a fleet of 18 helicopters making round trips from the top of the US Embassy to nearby naval vessels, left behind a heaving crowd of desperate Vietnamese helpers and their families unable to get out. I had the pleasure of knowing Hugh van Es, the Dutch photographer who took one of the most iconic photos of that war - the last helicopter as it was about to leave Saigon. The helicopters were supposed to have a maximum load of 8 people but most were taking off with 12 or 14.

 

Photo: Hugh van Es

[Lonnie]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

The one lesson I wish the US had drawn from the adventure in Vietnam

Biden voted to cut funds to South Vietnam...history repeating itself...probably the same outcome.

[reader]

Just a point of clarification, the photograph above of locals being evacuated from Saigon on April 29, 1975, is not the US embassy.

It is, as PeterRS accurately noted, one of the most iconic taken on that day as Vietcong and North Vietnam regulars entered the city. UPI photographer Hugh van Es took the shot of the roof of 22 Gia Long Street, an apartment complex in Saigon that housed the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

Please note that Peter does not misidentify the building. He references the rescue operations taking place at the embassy not far away. Many news outlets, however, are misidentifying it as the US embassy.

Here's a file photo of the US embassy where simultaneous evacuations were being conducted.

Here's a more recent photo of 22 Gia Long Street.

To read more information about this location, go to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/22_Gia_Long_Street

 

[vinapu]

Neither Britain not later USSR and USA achieved their goals in Afghanistan, now it's China's turn to get entangled there ( Taliban supporting Uyghur case? )and meet the same fate. 

Sadly it should be left to Afghan people to solve their country's ills as they see it.

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, reader said:

Just a point of clarification, the photograph above of locals being evacuated from Saigon on April 29, 1975, is not the US embassy.

Thank you for clarifying the location. I remember the plan was to have two evacuation locations and just assumed this was the Embassy.

[JKane]

1 hour ago, vinapu said:

Neither Britain not later USSR and USA achieved their goals in Afghanistan, now it's China's turn to get entangled there ( Taliban supporting Uyghur case? )and meet the same fate. 

Sadly it should be left to Afghan people to solve their country's ills as they see it.

 

This is generally my opinion.  The people of Afghanistan let their country be taken over and ruled by the Taliban, their neighbors and women terrorized and worse. They've suffered mightily for 20 years after that government's foolish support of 9/11 (though Saudi's involvement remains unaddressed...).  I'm sure many there don't remember before the American war and think that we're the sole cause of all their suffering, though.  

They can choose to fight for a better government or let the Taliban take over again.  That's been their choice for 20 years and many have bravely died fighting.  The western world actually tried hard to help the people establish something better for themselves, that enough didn't take it AND HOLD ONTO IT, well, we've given just about all we're willing to give, especially in American lives. 

But every time the Taliban concentrates power somewhere there'll be iron raining from the sky.  Every time somebody wants to oppose them there'll be arms and dollars for the cause.  Sadly, the Taliban don't seem to mind trying to rule through fear while hiding in a cave, never building anything good or lasting, just brutally keeping control over whatever local population they can terrorize.  So be it.  Every time they stick their head out of that cave it'll be blown off.  

It sucks we didn't manage to turn them into the new Germany or Japan, it would have been a great model for the middle east, and I mostly blame Bush2's idiocy, the whole world was with us until he had to go after Iraqi oil instead.  

What we did in Iraq was heinous and criminal, and will forever taint us.  But Afghanistan did it to themselves and that needs to remembered.