Almost two years. Frustrated

[abidismaili]

In 3 months time it has been two years since I was last in Thailand. In fact since I was last anywhere near it.

I never could have imagined then that my next visit would not be for at least two years. And no end in sight. 

[Ruthrieston]

After feeling so safe and glad to be in Thailand during the first year and a half of the pandemic I am now increasingly terrified as the number of infections and deaths have soared since the beginning of April and worsen daily. I am isolating in my condo. The only ray of hope for me is that I at least have an appointment at a hospital in Bangkok to receive the AstraZeneca vaccine in just over a week's time. We can but hope that things will improve over the next six to nine months in Thailand, but at the rate they are struggling to vaccinate people here I am seriously concerned. 

[kokopelli]

After two years in Pattaya I returned home a week ago and received Pfizer the following day.

[fedssocr]

It's been about 2.5 years since I was last in SE Asia. I really miss it. Almost 2 years since I was in Taiwan and Korea as well. I'm glad I managed to travel as much as I have over the last 15 years or so since it looks like it might be a while.

[vaughn]

It feels like a lifetime ago.

I keep making new tentative plans in my schedule in the hope that we return to some semblance of normal, and can return to Thailand (or anywhere in SEA).. each time that dates comes and goes and i push it back another 3-6 months, forever in a blind optimistic hope that the return to normal can be as rapid as the disaster unfolded.

Maybe 2022.

[TMax]

It's been 2 years since my last trip and I am only dreaming about my next, whenever that may be. I fully intend to make up for lost time if and when we can return and I can say that it will be a wild ride for sure😄 

[Vessey]

Oh Lord but I feel the same frustration, although, in comparison to some of you, I was lucky in that I was there for New Year 2019/20, so its only been an 18 month gap for me, but I had become so accustomed to being able to visit once or, more usually, twice a year at times convenient to me, that the uncertainty over my next trip gnaws at me day by day, week by week, and month by month as this pandemic rumbles on and Thailand's vaccination programe still looks woefully inadequate.

In theory, now I am both retired and double vaccinated, I could go back tomorrow and face the 14 day quarantine/sandbox, so what is holding me back?

The answer is my concern as to what I would find if I did go back now, with the mass restrictions, bar closures and so many boys gone back home.

In truth I am perhaps still rather naively hoping that there will be a time when everything will just go back to normal, and the Pattaya I arrive back at will look and feel the same as the Pattaya I left in January 2020.  However, in all probability that will never be, not quite the same anyway, and I just have to come to accept that, and be prepared to 'take it as I find it' as I did on my very first visit back in 2009. 

[a-447]

5 hours ago, vaughn said:

It feels like a lifetime ago.

I keep making new tentative plans in my schedule in the hope that we return to some semblance of normal, and can return to Thailand (or anywhere in SEA).. each time that dates comes and goes and i push it back another 3-6 months, forever in a blind optimistic hope that the return to normal can be as rapid as the disaster unfolded.

Maybe 2022.

I also spent an inordinate amount of time planning trips to various places - Slovakia, Holland, Japan and, of course, Thailand but had to cancel each one as the virus quickly took hold all over the world. It was extremely frustrating.

I have since given up all hope of travelling overseas until 2023 and so don't worry about it any more. And I can tell you, I feel a lot better for having let go!

Reality sucks!

 

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, Vessey said:

In theory, now I am both retired and double vaccinated, I could go back tomorrow and face the 14 day quarantine/sandbox, so what is holding me back?

The answer is my concern as to what I would find if I did go back now, with the mass restrictions, bar closures and so many boys gone back home.

Sensible comments.

I would think the optimum decision would be for anyone to wait at least until the current wave of covid has passed through Thailand and restrictions are on a downward trend.   What do those resident in Thailand think ?

The last thing I would worry about is availability of boys.   There will still be enough.

[PeterRS]

I definitely agree that wait and see is not only the best strategy,  it is the only one. With nearly 18,000 new cases yesterday - and those are only the ones we know about; the chances are there are a lot more - the government is nowhere near in control of the virus. Add the lack of vaccines and the very deep unrest being expressed on Thai social media, I would stay clear of Thailand for quite a long time.

Worse, the CDC in the USA today claims that the delta variant is more dangerous that they have been aware to date. One chart on a CDC presentation yesterday shows that it is "as contagious as chickenpox . . . and spreads more easily than the common cold, the 1918 flu and small pox." Worryingly, it then states that in one recent outbreak in Massachusetts

"vaccinated and unvaccinated people had nearly the same amount of virus recovered from test samples, indicating that vaccinated people are just as contagious as unvaccinated people when it comes to the delta variant."

A summary slide states that the CDC should "acknowledge that the war has changed."

This is just one variant. How many more variants are likely to appear over the next 6 - 9 months? 

The CDC presentation first appeared in The Washington Post.

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/29/1022580439/a-cdc-internal-report-says-the-delta-variant-is-more-transmissible-than-a-cold

[Guest]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

I would stay clear of Thailand for quite a long time.

What is your idea of a long time ?   

Anything could happen here. The more the current outbreak of covid gathers pace, the more likely we are to see the Thai government eventually realize that half baked measures are no use with the Delta variant.  So they might eventually impose a hard lockdown, which should cause case numbers to fall and a cycle or re-opening to occur.

Meanwhile, eventually they might get their act together and start manufacturing and procuring vaccines in sufficient volume to make a difference.  

The situation could look very different in 6 months time.     

 

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

vaccinated and unvaccinated people had nearly the same amount of virus recovered from test samples, indicating that vaccinated people are just as contagious as unvaccinated people when it comes to the delta variant."

A summary slide states that the CDC should "acknowledge that the war has changed."

This is just one variant. How many more variants are likely to appear over the next 6 - 9 months?

The UK experts believe the vaccines still reduce transmissibility.     From memory, I think Prof Whitty mentioned 75%.   Of course, he may be wrong and the UK has a different vaccine mix to the US.   Also I'm not sure what gap between the doses has been used in the US, but I heard Pfizer recommended about 3 weeks.   I believe Israel did something like that and they are now rolling out booster doses for over 60s to deal with declining immunity.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-58021386

In the UK, the interval between vaccines has been more like 8~12 weeks.  Which I understand should give protection for longer, although booster doses are expected here as well.

Also, I presume as R>>4 for the Delta variant, a 75% reduction in transmission does not lead to herd immunity.

 

What is fairly clear is something in excess of a 90% reduction in hospitalization after vaccination with one of the Western vaccines.    That's a very useful improvement in the odds.

Given the rush to provide booster doses to Thai medical staff, I presume they don't have such confidence with the Chinese vaccines.

 

What I also don't see much of is media coverage of development of vaccines for variants.    

[PeterRS]

45 minutes ago, z909 said:

What is your idea of a long time ?   

If I knew or had any reasonable conclusion I would have specified a time. I'm sure you realise I am grasping at straws as much as everyone else. 

I have no idea when Thailand will get to 70% vaccinated or whatever other percentage of the population is regarded as ideal for opening up. For your infomraion, the interval for the locally made AZ vaccine is 12 weeks. 

I just know that with the Prime Minister only a few weeks ago having revealed what he should have told the public many months ago - that the roughly 70 million AZ vaccine doses being manufactured locally and due for delivery between June and December will not in fact all be for Thailand since over 50% are earmarked for overseas (I believe negotiations are underway to have the Thailand amount increased but have seen no result) - and, so far as we know, not a great many other millions of doses are scheduled to come into the country soon with the exception of the Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines, the government has a huge problem. The Prime Minster has even admitted this. In April and May he was saying publicly that the 70% would be reached by September. By early June that had been moved back to the end of December. Even that now seems very  overoptimistic. 

Young people still remain very much at the back of the queue and they seem just as prone to the delta variant as older people. I know of about a dozen guys in their 20s who cannot get a date for vaccinations. One has got an August date for his first Sinopharm vaccination but only because he knows a nurse at a hospital. Even then he has to pay 3,200 baht for both. Having been jobless for many months he has had to beg and borrow that sum. What of all the boys in Pattaya, I wonder? I thought the organisation bringing in Sinopharm was doing at as a charitable exercise since a great many Thais will find it hard to pay that price. That apart, as you rightly point out, the Chinese vaccines do not seem to be as effective as the others.

I think you have discounted the point made in my earlier post about the CDC's latest pronouncement. So we really do not know how effective present vaccines are other than keeping many people out of hospital. But surely the CDC's comment about vaccinated people still being contagious with the delta variant, does that not throw a rather big spanner into predictions for the future? And what if, as is surely likely, more variants appear?

1 hour ago, z909 said:

Meanwhile, eventually they might get their act together and start manufacturing and procuring vaccines in sufficient volume to make a difference.  

I wish. But you know the background to the awarding of the contract for AZ vaccines. Do you seriously believe that the Prime Minister is going to change the rules given the principals involved with the AZ production - and these include his dreadful Minister of Health, Anutin, who is from an opposition party? Anutin could have involved the government's own department which for years has manufactured various vaccines, some for the WHO. But he elected not to. Changing the rules now would be politically dangerous in my view.

As for yet another lockdown, since the Prime Minister was terrified of the effect on his public image if he accepted the advice from all his medical experts to cancel Songkran this year, I cannot see him shutting down the country more than he already has. 

So I remain unconvinced that this country will be able to open up for a long time. I'll hazard a guess. Mid 2022. Sadly!

[spoon]

Vaccine is the way to go, and like everyone mentioned already, thai gov is not doing well on procurement. But they can still amke do with whatever vaccine they have to slowly restart the nation. Start small, health care workers, high risk individuals, then straight to those who must work for the economy, which includes tourist area/workers, factories etc. They can also divert the supply the heavily hit province like bangkok, and all the dark red provinces. And then only for the general masses. As long as thai gov follow this, depending of how fast they get the supply, several part of the countries can slowly open for us to enjoy. 

When will that be, its anyone guess. My personal hope is pattaya sandbox to open by october, provided that the manage to vaccinate their population. One can only dream. 

Worth to mention, even countries that dont have issues with vaccine supply, are still having trouble to achieve 80% fully vaccinated population simply because some portion of the people who wont get themselves vaccinated. Im not sure how much of these people are in thailand but for the time being, its a non issue until there is a vaccine surplus.

 

 

[bucky13]

Just keep piling up the savings account.  When the time comes, and it will, it will be a GLORIOUS time with the very grateful boys!

[fedssocr]

indeed, I've saved a lot of money by not traveling over the last 16 months.

Public health experts that I follow are quite concerned about the reporting mischaracterizing the new CDC guidance. I recommend everyone follow Dr. Ashish Jha on Twitter (@ashiashkjha). He's the dean of the school of public health at Brown University (and a regular fixture on US media). 

 

[TotallyOz]

@PeterRSYou are right in that these are the ones we know about. Jupiter Boy has Covid as does at least 20 of his friends. None of them are counted in the numbers as they are given at home testing and they stay there to recover. I would estimate the number is 10 times the reported numbers.

@Vessey What you find is paradise.   I have had so many boys message me on apps and want to stay with me or visit me. Yesterday, I had sex with one of the hottest guys in years. As I worry about Covid, I was as careful as possible. But, I had to see him and I did. Amazing and sweet. He is stuck here from another country and can't return yet. That leaves his free time (all the time) for doing nothing and Bangkok is boring. He said he liked being with me as he has someone to talk to and he thinks if he can stay with me more, I'd be open to letting him fuck me and he said his dick was magic. I laughed. He had me at liked.

@bucky13 I love the optimism and I know it will be glorious when you return!

@kokopelli Glad you got the vaccine. Stay safe and return as soon as you can!

[aussie_]

16 hours ago, z909 said:

I would think the optimum decision would be for anyone to wait at least until the current wave of covid has passed through Thailand and restrictions are on a downward trend.   What do those resident in Thailand think ?

The last thing I would worry about is availability of boys.   There will still be enough.

The only good part of being in Thailand in recent months is the warm weather. Because of the previous and even current lack of enforcement of restrictions on travel between provinces the Delta variant is running pretty much out of control. Recent cases include guys who live in the Jomtien complex returning from a visit to Bangkok. I keep hearing more reports every day of Thai bar boys and their friends who are sick with Covid in hospital or isolating at home because there is no room left in the care facilities.

The current wave of Covid may last for many months and i am not sure how much entertainment there will be left in Pattaya with some gay bars already giving up and closing. The new Dragon Music bar in the Complex is nearly finished with a full renovation and i hope they get a chance to open later this year but it may not be till 2022.

There are mostly the same boys available on the apps for the last 18 months and many of them have recently returned home. With the amount of local infections It is very risky to meet anyone at present. It may be more frustrating being here in Thailand now with the many available Thai guys but not being able to meet anyone with the fear of catching Covid. Even if you are fully vaccinated i would not be rushing back to Thailand anytime soon. 

My advise is to stay where you are until well after the current wave is over and check if there is better management of the situation here in Thailand. The current wave would not have been so severe if the restrictions were enforced and lockdowns enacted quickly instead of letting people travel all over the country spreading infections.  You do not want to return to Thailand after two years away to find that you are stuck in you hotel or condo in a lockdown with a curfew. 

[TMax]

7 hours ago, bucky13 said:

Just keep piling up the savings account.  When the time comes, and it will, it will be a GLORIOUS time with the very grateful boys!

My thoughts exactly, needless to say when the time comes I will be packing at least 3 times the number of condoms that I usually take over an am looking forward to receiving many a pounding by the hot and horny Thai massage guys😁

[PeterRS]

14 hours ago, PeterRS said:

And what if, as is surely likely, more variants appear?

CNN is reporting this morning about a new variant that is called the Columbian variant. It has not yet been given a Greek letter but it has already spread to Florida.

[TotallyOz]

19 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

CNN is reporting this morning about a new variant that is called the Columbian variant. It has not yet been given a Greek letter but it has already spread to Florida.

Florida?  Shocking right? The place where there are no mandates or attempts to get this under control.

[fedssocr]

and lots of vulnerable old people. It's like they're trying to kill off all of their voters

[spoon]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

CNN is reporting this morning about a new variant that is called the Columbian variant. It has not yet been given a Greek letter but it has already spread to Florida.

When will florida produce their own variant? 

[PeterRS]

53 minutes ago, spoon said:

When will florida produce their own variant? 

It already has. The name is Trump. Keep well away!

[a-447]

54 minutes ago, spoon said:

When will florida produce their own variant? 

It probably won't.

It will ravage through the population of old people so quickly that it will not have time to mutate.

[vinapu]

I'm kind of optimist as recently I managed to visit country with half of Thailand's population which as late  as April 2021 had almost 30000 cases a day, vaccinations changed everything , at least for time being