First Covid-infected tourist found in Phuket Sandbox

[macaroni21]

It's only one week since the Phuket Sandbox trial began and there couldn't have been many visitors yet. But they've already found one infected tourist. However, the most significant part about this story is that as soon as they identified this case, "Other tourists in the same group had been placed in 14-day quarantine". So this adds another risk. All it takes is for one positive test from a member of the group -- does this also mean everyone else who arrived on the same flight? -- and the rest are slammed into 14 days' quarantine. No different from arriving in any other part of the country.

Another interesting tidbit from the story is the statement that "70% of the population has now received two doses of Covid-19 vaccine", presumably Sinovac.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2144879/first-covid-infected-tourist-found-in-phuket-sandbox

 

[Guest]

Well, according to Thaiger, there have been 2000 arrivals for the Phuket sandbox scheme.    So 1 case in 2000 people.

According to World Meters, Thailand has 80,289 cases.    That works out at slightly worse than 1 in 1000.

So the infection rate amongst Phuket tourists is below that for Thailand as a whole.

Furthermore, we hear of people being unable to get covid tests in Thailand currently.   Also, there is a potential incentive to avoid testing, if failing a test means being sent to a field hospital.    So the 1 in 1000 domestic cases is likely to be significantly under stated.

Meanwhile, from what I remember, all the sandbox scheme participants have to take covid tests, which they have paid for.  So the 1 in 2000 tourist cases is should not be  understated.  It could be overstated, if the test processing is linked to the private hospitals which would earn revenue from those sent there after failing tests.

An infection rate amongst inbound tourists that is below the prevailing rate in Thailand is unlikely to be a problem.    However, an irrational political response is more likely to be problematic.  

The other problem is that vaccinating 70% of the people is likely to be a long way off "herd immunity" with the combination of a good vaccine and the delta variant.    Also, we're not quite sure if they have used good vaccines with high efficacy.

[PeterRS]

2 hours ago, z909 said:

An infection rate amongst inbound tourists that is below the prevailing rate in Thailand is unlikely to be a problem.    However, an irrational political response is more likely to be problematic.

I fail to understand the logic here. Inbound tourists to the sandbox have presumably paid quite handsomely for the trip. They have to show reams of paperwork including proof of vaccination and a test within 72 hours of departure. Given all that, one passenger arrived positive. So if you are in a group and just one is positive, all of you are f--ked. It may not be a problem for Phuket residents but it sure is a huge blow to potential holidaymakers.

But this is not the only gap in the sandbox. If you are found to test positive, you are not given a second test to check if the first was false positive. Also, one sandbox arrival avoided the hotel and went to stay with his Thai wife and son. The hotel reported him when he did not turn up and the police then apprehended him. Another, an 84- year old with Alzheimers, was found to have left the hotel without his cellphone. He was apprehended in a supermarket. 

The chances of these two men testing positive is probably infinitesimal. But we know from the example of Melbourne and other cities that hotel quarantine is absolutely no guarantee that someone with the virus will not result in a local spike in cases.

https://loyaltylobby.com/2021/07/07/phuket-sandbox-tourist-tests-positive-for-cov19-entire-tour-group-moved-to-quarantine-hotel/

[abidismaili]

How can this tourist have Covid? He made a fake proof he tested negative for Covid before boarding ? Or the test is just not reliable ? 

[spoon]

1 hour ago, abidismaili said:

How can this tourist have Covid? He made a fake proof he tested negative for Covid before boarding ? Or the test is just not reliable ? 

It takes a while for viral load to increase to detectable level. During incubation period, it is not detectable, and this can take up to 14 days in average, thus the main reason quarantine last this long. So this tourist mustve contracted the virus fairly recently prior to his departure. 

I recalled when malaysia and singapore had the greenlane for workers, one of the requirement is self isolation in your own home 7 days prior to departure, and 7 days isolation in singapore after arrival. 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I fail to understand the logic here. ................................

.......But we know from the example of Melbourne and other cities that hotel quarantine is absolutely no guarantee that someone with the virus will not result in a local spike in cases.

I shall try again.

1  When countries like Australia and Thailand had no covid, strict quarantine on inbound travellers was useful to prevent or delay covid from getting established in the country.   A leak in the quarantine regime could have meant going from no covid to a significant outbreak.

2  Once covid is already endemic in the country, one more imported case is not as critical, since it's more of a drop in the ocean.      If the rate of infection amongst tourists is lower than the local population, it follows that 1000 tourists could be less risky than 1000 locals.

Caveats:

(i) I compared infection rates for all of Thailand, when perhaps using Phuket would be better.

(ii) I have excluded the virus mutation risk, as currently the Delta variant already accounts for 70% of cases in Thailand (& is most likely on it's way to >99%).  

 

I presume the sandbox schemes work on an assumption that 70% vaccination rates will provide something near herd immunity in the local population.  

I expect this percentage is too low with the delta variant.     Also, if they used Chinese vaccines, with low efficacy, it may be an even bigger miscalculation. 

[Guest]

Delete

[Patanawet]

And today 2 more.

Two children aged 8 and 9.

[vinapu]

30 minutes ago, Patanawet said:

And today 2 more.

Two children aged 8 and 9.

did they imported covid with them or  opposite, actually  got infected while mingling with locals. It works both ways as always

[Guest]

So sandbox tourists can be sent to quarantine at their expense, if sat near a test failure on the plane......

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/sandbox-tourist-forced-to-stay-in-asq-hotel-after-fellow-passenger-on-her-flight-tests-positive

[PeterRS]

My earlier post was less concerned with statistics than with examples of how something like a sandbox scheme frequently does not work. The clear example is Melbourne and other quarantine hotels in Australia. Melbourne was first with supposedly a fail safe system. It wasn't and the virus got back out to the general community. This was a result of guards working across various hotels rather than being restricted to one and mingling with quarantined travellers. Several state governments have acknowledged that airborne transmission may have been possible with the virus likely picked up in narrow hotel corridors. It is thought that one case occurred when two people in rooms across a corridor from each other opened their doors to collect their meals at the same time. Without masks, the virus could have been transmitted from one to another.

Then there are the Taiwan cases which were brought into a country that had had no cases for around 255 days by pilots and airline staff. One had flown back from New York with a bad cough and not feeling 100% fit. He infected others in the flight crew. By this stage the Taiwan government hd made the sort of mistake we are more used to here in Thailand. Quarantine for pilots had been reduced from around 10 days to 5 and then 3. One pilot then skipped from the airport quarantine hotel so he could go out on the town with his girl friend. These pilots were from EVA airlines and ended up with massive fines and being fired. But still the lesson was not learned and a few weeks later China Airlines was grounded for two weeks after its staff also brought the virus in to the country. Now the Taiwanese are having to put up with restrictions they did not experience last year. Worse, they are having problems getting vaccines.

I do not believe the sandbox will work for long even with tourists who have been vaccinated and passed a covid test poor to departure and on arrival. I hope I am wrong. Time will tell.

[spoon]

Few things are clear to me now at least for the case of phuket sandbox. If your visit is for 14 days or less, stay off this sandbox unless you are willing to gamble that your vacation might turn out to an expensive two week quarantine in hotel prison. If your trip is more than 14 days, but less than 1-2 month, go only if you are willing to lose 14 days of your trip in case similar thing above happened. For longer term traveller, its a better choice than the compulsory quarantine STV provides, so sandbox is a no brainer. 

As for me, i mightve to resign to the fact that 2021 might not be a travel to thailand year for me. The only way this could happen is if thailand somehow miraculously able to vaccinate enough of their citizens to bring the cases down significantly, enough for them to relax the sandbox restriction further. The whoe reason local in sandbox needs to be vaccinated is so that even if there is a positive cases, it wouldnt matter much since itll just be like a normal flu. Until this happen, i agree that sandbox will doom to fail. 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I do not believe the sandbox will work for long even with tourists who have been vaccinated and passed a covid test poor to departure and on arrival. I hope I am wrong. Time will tell.

It depends on what you define as "work".

The purpose of the original quarantine schemes from October 2020 onwards was to prevent covid getting into Thailand, on the assumption Thailand has a zero incidence rate.

Now covid is rampant in Thailand, if a very small percentage of tourists have covid, it doesn't matter.

 

What I will say is that if people who shared a plane with one covid test failure are sent to hotel quarantine, the sandbox scheme will not be trusted by tourists.

Incidentally, could someone in Thailand tell me what is the policy if a Thai person is found to have shared a domestic flight, or a bus, train etc with someone infected with covid ?     Are they required to quarantine ?      Or it this just a policy for tourists dumb enough to pay up ?

[Boy69]

As I suspected the sandbox is doom to fail. It's too complicated for me till this maddness is over I prefer to stay in my country and travel domestically.

[vinapu]

8 hours ago, PeterRS said:

 

I do not believe the sandbox will work for long even with tourists who have been vaccinated and passed a covid test poor to departure and on arrival. I hope I am wrong. Time will tell.

not to dispute a word from what you said  but success of sandbox to a great degree depends of risk tolerance of both tourists and locals. Aiming at zero transmissions will lead to failure  of the schemes.