Infections may be “3-4 times higher” than government-declared total

[reader]

From Thai Enquirer

Experts say that Thailand may have Covid-19 infection numbers 3-4 times higher than the total number declared by the government per day, according to insiders within the healthcare sector.

According to a doctor at the Bangkok Dusit Medical Services group, experts at the Private Hospitals Association meeting on Wednesday suggested that the real number of Covid-19 infections could be much higher than that being declared by the government.

“We have no idea what the total number is but it could literally be 3 to 4 times higher than what is being declared based on the statistics we have gathered at our hospitals,” the doctor said on condition of anonymity.

“The reason we don’t know is because private hospitals don’t have the capacity or the mandate to do widespread testing, we can only test people that come to our hospitals,” said the doctor who asked not to be named. “In April, we had infection rates around 10 per cent of people that were tested. Now it is much closer to 20 per cent.”

Thailand’s government said that the country saw 6,464 new covid infections in the general public on Wednesday.

“We do not know for sure what the actual number is we can only judge it by the rate of infections and by the numbers we see that come to get tested at the hospital,” said Dr Suwadee Puntpanich, a director at Thonburi Bamrungmuang Hospital which is part of the Thonburi Healthcare Group.

“But in our hospitals, we have people lining up since 3 am to get tested in the morning as we have a limited number of tests. Of those that we do test, there are days when over half are found to be infected.”

If the experts working for the Private Hospital Groups are correct, Thailand’s reopening plans for October may need to be shelved until the population can be vaccinated and protected against further infections.

Thailand is currently in the midst of the third, most severe, wave of the pandemic with nearly 300,000 people infected since April 1.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29512/thailand-may-have-infection-numbers-3-4-times-higher-than-the-government-declared-total/

[KeepItReal]

4 hours ago, reader said:

From Thai Enquirer

Experts say that Thailand may have Covid-19 infection numbers 3-4 times higher than the total number declared by the government per day, according to insiders within the healthcare sector.

According to a doctor at the Bangkok Dusit Medical Services group, experts at the Private Hospitals Association meeting on Wednesday suggested that the real number of Covid-19 infections could be much higher than that being declared by the government.

“We have no idea what the total number is but it could literally be 3 to 4 times higher than what is being declared based on the statistics we have gathered at our hospitals,” the doctor said on condition of anonymity.

“The reason we don’t know is because private hospitals don’t have the capacity or the mandate to do widespread testing, we can only test people that come to our hospitals,” said the doctor who asked not to be named. “In April, we had infection rates around 10 per cent of people that were tested. Now it is much closer to 20 per cent.”

Thailand’s government said that the country saw 6,464 new covid infections in the general public on Wednesday.

“We do not know for sure what the actual number is we can only judge it by the rate of infections and by the numbers we see that come to get tested at the hospital,” said Dr Suwadee Puntpanich, a director at Thonburi Bamrungmuang Hospital which is part of the Thonburi Healthcare Group.

“But in our hospitals, we have people lining up since 3 am to get tested in the morning as we have a limited number of tests. Of those that we do test, there are days when over half are found to be infected.”

If the experts working for the Private Hospital Groups are correct, Thailand’s reopening plans for October may need to be shelved until the population can be vaccinated and protected against further infections.

Thailand is currently in the midst of the third, most severe, wave of the pandemic with nearly 300,000 people infected since April 1.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29512/thailand-may-have-infection-numbers-3-4-times-higher-than-the-government-declared-total/

Same is happening elsewhere - South Africa is another example:

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/africa/covid-19-in-africa-real-toll-may-be-thrice-the-official-figure-77825

[ggobkk]

Lack of vaccines, delay in bringing vaccine manufacturing on line, over confidence...infected folks going home because of lack of work...very sorry for Thailand's troubles which work to prohibit me from traveling to Thailand.

[PeterRS]

8 hours ago, ggobkk said:

Lack of vaccines, delay in bringing vaccine manufacturing on line, over confidence...infected folks going home because of lack of work...very sorry for Thailand's troubles which work to prohibit me from traveling to Thailand.

I think we must add to that list two vital elements that are only partially implied: total ineptitude of the government and endemic corruption. If the numbers are really much higher than are being reported, opening up of the country is surely going to be a long way away.

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

 If the numbers are really much higher than are being reported, opening up of the country is surely going to be a long way away.

First, I think in most countries actual numbers were and still are higher or very much higher than actually reported as it's impossible  to test everybody and a lot of people with lighter symptoms did not bother to report.

Second, while number of cases in Thailand are worryingly climbing there are relatively low for 70 million nation so decision about closing or opening may be more political than data based, again , like in most countries.

Where I'm we still can't dine indoors while a lot of  countries with higher number of cases and lower numbers of vaccinated allow it already. Whether  it's good or bad remains to be seen  but clearly various governments are using various opening criteria and strategies.

 

[TMax]

I can see a lockdown for certain areas won't be too far away, Bangkok would be the prime place for lockdown. Looks like that idea is starting to float around in some peoples heads already. Of course if they start talking about it and it gets reported in the media (lol see below) there will be a mass exodus out of Bangkok and good luck trying to stop that.

Quote

A lockdown may be considered to curb the spread of Covid-19 if new cases continue to surge, National Security Council secretary-general Natthapol Nakpanich said.

Gen Natthapol Nakpanich, head of the CCSA's operation centre, said the CCSA would be willing to consider any proposal from the Ministry of Public Health for a lockdown to contain Covid-19 transmissions.

He said he had heard talk of a lockdown. There was no official proposal so far, but if proposed, the centre was ready to consider it.

Lockdown in sight

[TotallyOz]

I do think a Lockdown is a good idea. But, it is because they did not prepare the vaccines properly for all to take. All of this could have been avoided.

[TMax]

Just now, TotallyOz said:

I do think a Lockdown is a good idea. But, it is because they did not prepare the vaccines properly for all to take. All of this could have been avoided.

Agree on that, now it comes back to bite them. 

[spoon]

Situation getting worse here in malaysia too. Hospitals are rejecting patient, more gov hospitals converted to full covid hospitals, community clinics now have to house patients waiting for placement on hospitals bed. Daily cases today is 8.6k for a 32mil population, but 6k of them are concentrated in the center between 3 states. Some patient had to be transferred to neighboring states hospital for treatment. I think we are hit worse than thailand at the moment. 

We have been in lockdown of variety of  stages for a really long time now and cases are not going down. Vaccination are our only way out and luckily we fare a bit better than thailand in this regard. But we are still behind. Vaccine pace has been picking up to 375k doses a day now, and 12million doses will be distributed within this month. Needless to say, friends and family have been infected left and right.

 

[Gaybutton]

"I have certain rules I live by. My first rule:  I don't believe anything the government tells me.  Nada! Nothing! Zero!  Works very well for me."

- George Carlin

[reader]

From Thai Enquirer

Government to tighten restrictions amid record infections, denies “lockdown”

The government will decide this week on extra Covid restriction measures suggested by the Ministry of Health, the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said on Thursday, as rates of infection and death reached new highs.

“This is not going to be a full lockdown,” said Dr Apisamai Srirangsan, the CCSA’s deputy spokeswoman.

The CCSA will decide on the added measures in hard-hit provinces on Friday, she said. The suggestions cover tighter checkpoints between provinces, temporary closure of businesses, changes in opening hours and mandatory working from home.

“We have already been asking people to not make any unnecessary traveling between provinces unless they really have to in previous weeks,” Apisamai said.

There have been 7,058 confirmed Covid cases and 75 related deaths in the past 24 hours, the CSSA said.

From the total cases that were reported in the past 24 hours, 6,981 were found within the general Thai population, excluding the 68 cases in prisons and the nine imported cases.

The previous record for the nationwide daily number within the general Thai population was 6,448 on Tuesday, and the one before that was Monday at 6,070 cases.

The 75 Covid related deaths in past 24 hours is also a new record. The previous record was at 57 deaths on June 28.  

The CCSA said the surge of new cases is driven by the Delta variant, first identified in India, which has led to shortages of hospital beds in Bangkok and surrounding provinces, the hardest-hit provinces in the third wave which started April 1.

They also said this week that they are preparing for up to a possible 10,000 cases per day by next week.

At the moment, the only nationwide measure in effect is the temporary shutdown of all entertainment venues. Mandatory mask-wearing is being applied with 20,000 baht fine in some provinces.

For Bangkok and the surrounding provinces of Samut Prakarn, Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, Nakhon Pathom and Samut Sakhon, worker camps and working sites are closed, dining-in at restaurants is not allowed and events with more than 20 people are banned until the end of July, but people can still travel between provinces.

All of these measures are subject to review by the CCSA on Friday.

The Ministry of Public Health’s suggestions of extra measures for 14 days are as follows:

• The setting up of checkpoints to fully ban unnecessary travelling between provinces
• Fully implementing the work from home model for both public and private sector  
• The temporary closure of high-risk businesses
• Adjusting the opening hours of businesses such as shopping centers and convenient stores
• Reducing public transport schedules to match the expected lowered number of passengers

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29581/government-to-tighten-restrictions-amid-record-infections-denies-lockdown/

[spoon]

The sooner thai gov realize that half baked lockdown doesnt work anymore, the better. We have had much stricter lockdown for few months now. But factories are still allowed to open, due to economic reason. Last week, gov finally close majority of these factories except essential (food, medical). While its still early to see if this helps, cases still climbing up. I just learned today death count is 135, highest daily death so far. Our healthcare is holding on for now. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Gaybutton said:

"I have certain rules I live by. My first rule:  I don't believe anything the government tells me.  Nada! Nothing! Zero!  Works very well for me."

- George Carlin

In the kind of countries where many of the active board members originate from, we have independent media organizations which are free to investigate and expose dishonesty by governments, or higher authorities.   Which tends to limit dishonesty.

In certain other countries, it seems people can be arrested for spreading "false" information, even if it's not false.   Plus other limits on free speech.

As for under reporting cases, well this has been common in many western countries when test capacity was far below demand.   Some have fixed that (e.g. UK, finally......), but some have not.      However, there was usually no attempt to pretend the reported case numbers corresponded to actual numbers.

 

20 minutes ago, spoon said:

The sooner thai gov realize that half baked lockdown doesnt work anymore, the better. We have had much stricter lockdown for few months now. But factories are still allowed to open, due to economic reason. Last week, gov finally close majority of these factories except essential (food, medical).

Earlier in 2021, the "half baked" lockdowns appeared to be working in Thailand.      We were free to go to shops, coffee shops & restaurants, although not after 21:00.   I thought this wouldn't work, but the number of cases in most provinces decreased.

Now with the Delta variant, the half baked lockdowns no longer seem to work.   This is difficult, as a country cannot shut down all of it's industry, as they need food production and so on.   Also, the Thai vaccination programme is slow and some of it uses a Chinese vaccine which is not so effective.

 

[macaroni21]

On 7/7/2021 at 6:50 PM, reader said:

From Thai Enquirer

Experts say that Thailand may have Covid-19 infection numbers 3-4 times higher than the total number declared by the government per day, according to insiders within the healthcare sector.

 “In April, we had infection rates around 10 per cent of people that were tested. Now it is much closer to 20 per cent.”

 

Allowing that this 20 percent positivity rate is coming from one hospital's testing and may not be representative of data from testing centres nationwide, it is indeed very concerning and supports the estimate that the true number of infections is a few mutliples higher. I doubt if Thailand's testing programme is comprehensive -- I can't find the data on total testing numbers in the short time I have.  Here is an explanation of why high positivity numbers generally indicate under-reporting of cases.

"This also makes sense intuitively: if you test everyone, then the positvity rate will be very low, and you will catch every case. But if testing is not widely available, then you will catch only the severe cases, resulting in a higher positivity rate. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as preferential testing."  Source: https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/

The World Health Organisation uses 5% as a bench-mark. A positivity rate above that should be taken to indicate that true infection numbers are higher than reported. Of course it is possible that at any one time, in a really terrible epidemic ( e.g. Black Death), more than 5% would be infected at any one time, and even if one tested 100% of the population, the positivity rate will be a figure higher than 5%. Yet, that result would not be an under-report becuase you had tested everyone. However, in most epidemics, including this one, it's really a rolling infection, and even in the worst situations, it is unlikely that more than 5% of people would be infected at any one time. So if test results come in at 20% positive, it suggests that we should test more for a better grasp of the situation.

The only way out of this epidemic is vaccination, but as others have noted, the roll-out is relatively slow in Thailand, especially when compared against the greater transmissibility of the Delta variant. Bad news just came in. Even the best performing vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna) are demonstrating only 64% effectiveness aganst infection from Delta. The silver lining is that even if infected, the vaccine will protect against serious illness from Delta. Here, it gives 94% protection.

"TEL AVIV—Data from Israel suggest Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine is less effective at protecting against infections caused by the Delta variant of Covid-19 but retains its potency to prevent severe illness from the highly contagious strain.

The vaccine protected 64% of inoculated people from infection during an outbreak of the Delta variant, down from 94% before, according to Israel’s Health Ministry. It was 94% effective at preventing severe illness in the same period, compared with 97% before, the ministry said.

An Israeli official said Tuesday the health ministry findings released a day earlier were preliminary and based on data collected from June 6 through early July."

Source: Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-is-less-effective-against-delta-variant-israeli-data-show-11625572796

[PeterRS]

1 hour ago, z909 said:

Now with the Delta variant, the half baked lockdowns no longer seem to work.   This is difficult, as a country cannot shut down all of it's industry, as they need food production and so on.   Also, the Thai vaccination programme is slow and some of it uses a Chinese vaccine which is not so effective.

I am not sure how common the Delta variant is in Thailand yet. The false sense of security that enveloped the country last year, especially the government, resulted in it taking its eye well and truly off the ball. I think this cannot be stated enough. There was no pressure to accelerate vaccine production, there was no testing at the largest fish market and its thousands of legal and illegal migrants, there was lax border control allowing the virus to enter in rich scum avoiding quarantine and opening up the country for Songkran against all available medical opinion were all a collective form of madness. It's unlikely Thailand could have avoided some form of third wave. But with countries like Taiwan and Thailand with excellent records in 2020 now suffering because of sheer stupidity on behalf of those making decisions, it is now the public in both countries suffering.

Interestingly, Taiwanese are flocking to book package tours to Guam. There vaccines are available for anyone and the first shot is given in hotels the day following arrival. Visitors can also choose which vaccine they prefer. There is no quarantine provided travellers have a negative covid test within 72 hours of departure.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/taiwan-guam-vaccination-travel-intl-hnk/index.html

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

I am not sure how common the Delta variant is in Thailand yet.

1    70% according to this Bangkok Post report.    https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2142915/70-of-city-covid-cases-are-delta-strain

2   Wherever the Delta variant gets a foothold, it tends to take over.   Hence when it was reported in Thailand some time ago, we should not be surprised by the results.

3  There is also likely to be some reason why the moderate restrictions early in 2021 seemed able to contain Covid, whilst it is now getting out of control.   The variant might be one contributor to the difference.  Perhaps those still in Thailand might notice other differences.

[spoon]

There is also been a steady increase of brought in dead in malaysia, 20 of the 135 death count today is brought in dead cases. One of the reason is happy hypoxia, where despite low oxygen level in infected patient, they still breath as usual. By the time it moves to the next stage, its already too late to treat. It is not proven that this is related to delta variant but it might very well be. 

[TotallyOz]

More measures to take place tomorrow, according to thethaiger.

https://thethaiger.com/news/bangkok/breaking-travel-restrictions-and-curfew-to-be-set-in-bangkok-dark-red-provinces

[TotallyOz]

Interesting article here:

https://coconuts.co/bangkok/news/effective-tomorrow-bangkok-residents-asked-to-stay-home-for-14-days-unless-necessary/

I didn't know you could use the word fuck in an article. I like fuck. But, is it journalistic?

[reader]

2 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

I didn't know you could use the word fuck in an article. I like fuck. But, is it journalistic?

It's not a word you commonly see. However, Coconuts may have a style guide that permits profanity when it's in the context of a third-party quotation as it it is here.

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

72 Covid deaths, 9,276 new cases

There were 72 Covid-19 fatalities and 9,276 new cases over the past 24 hours, the Public Health Ministry reported on Friday. Thirty-nine of the deaths were in Bangkok and the average age was 66 years.

There were 8,998 cases in the general population and 278 among prison inmates.

Since the pandemic started early last year, there have been 2,534 fatalities and 317,506 cases of infection, 240,077 of whom had already recovered.

The 9,276 new Covid-19 cases comprised 8,975 local infections, 23 imported cases and 278 in prisons.  Bangkok recorded 3,116 cases, followed by 544 in Samut Sakhon, 437 in Samut Prakan, 341 in Lop Buri, 317 in Chon Buri, 265 in Ayutthaya, 243 in Chachoengsao, 236 in Nonthaburi, 214 in Pattani and 211 in Nakhon Pathom.

The CCSA spokeswoman said 74,895 people were receiving Covid-19 treatment at hospitals on Thursday. They included 2,685 critically ill patients and 701 dependent on ventilators.

Samut Sakhon had one new cluster at a snack factory in Krathum Baen district with 29 Covid-19 cases, Samut Prakan reported a new cluster at a construction workers’ camp in Bang Phli district and Ayutthaya had a new cluster at a community in front of the factory land in Wang Noi district with 117 cases.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2146139/72-covid-deaths-9-276-new-cases

=================================

From The Thaiger / Reuters

Thailand among 5 economies most at risk from Delta variant

The investment banking firm JP Morgan says there are 5 emerging economies that are most vulnerable to the Delta variant – and Thailand is one of them. According to a Reuters report, the others are South Africa, Colombia, the Philippines, and Peru.

The primary reason given for these findings is the low rate of vaccination, with analysts comparing the pace of vaccine rollouts with the spread of the Delta variant first reported in India. In some countries, mass vaccination is not happening quickly enough to offset the surge in infections caused by the highly contagious variant.

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/jp-morgan-includes-thailand-in-5-economies-most-at-risk-from-delta-variant

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, reader said:

The investment banking firm JP Morgan says there are 5 emerging economies that are most vulnerable to the Delta variant – and Thailand is one of them.

Since it's from an Investment bank, I would guess they compared only "emerging economies" off the MSCI Emerging markets list, or a similar one.    So excluding "Frontier" markets like Vietnam, or those not even making that, like Cambodia or Myanmar.   Out of the limited list of emerging markets below, the Latin American countries will have more people with vaccines or prior infections.  Then amongst the remainder, it's not too difficult to see why they put Thailand in the worst 5.

[The emerging markets concept is a little odd.   It includes Greece which was formerly a "Developed Market", so is actually a regressing market not an emerging one.   Advanced economies like Taiwan & S Korea are still "emerging", not doubt due to some problem with shareholder rights or corporate governance.]

[reader]

From Bangkok Post

Record 91 Covid deaths, 9,326 new cases

Ninety-one Covid-19 fatalities and 9,326 new cases were reported on Saturday, according to the Public Health Ministry.

Of the new cases, 9,134 were found among the general population and 192 among prison inmates.

 

[spoon]

2 hours ago, reader said:

From Bangkok Post

Record 91 Covid deaths, 9,326 new cases

Ninety-one Covid-19 fatalities and 9,326 new cases were reported on Saturday, according to the Public Health Ministry.

Of the new cases, 9,134 were found among the general population and 192 among prison inmates.

 

Seems like malaysia and thailand are competing to see which gov fail the best. 9353 new cases and 87 death here today

[vinapu]

6 hours ago, spoon said:

Seems like malaysia and thailand are competing to see which gov fail the best. 9353 new cases and 87 death here today

considering Malaysia has half of Thai population it seems you guys have bigger problem. Still in comparison to some European countries not that long ago both countries are not doing that bad. If only you can have enough vaccines