Air fare decisions become more challenging

[reader]

Pre-pandemic, I never hesitated to lock in an airfare well in advance, usually just after returning from my previous trip. That was then, this is now.

Four unknowns make booking way out hazardous for four reasons:

First, you aren’t assured that the carrier you book will actually fly on your chosen days.

Second, you don’t know if your destination will be open to you.

Third, you don’t know what local restrictions may be in place on your departure date.

Fourth, change fee ambiguities. Some fare have no change fees but you do have to pay any fare differences. Unless you’re prepared to book fully refundable fares, no carrier is offering refunds. I’ve noticed that “no change fees” are becoming progressively less frequent. I've noticed that some Expedia listings may not indicate "no change fee" but when you go to the air carrier's website, they do show no fees on same flight. If the airline is responsible for a schedule change, your fare should not change.

Using Expedia to check schedules and fares, I considered two destinations: Bangkok and Hanoi. I sampled New York and London departures.

Dates sampled: Departing 19 October, returning 19 November.

(Please bear in mind that flight offerings and fares are subject to change without notice. The following were sampled on the afternoon of 5 July).

NEW YORK TO BANGKOK

ECONOMY: fare range $759-$997

Best value: Finnair $791 (duration 20:45)

Runner-up: Cathay Pacific $915 (duration 21:00)

BUSINESS: fare range: $3080 to $5936

Best value: Finnair $3080 (duration 20:45)

Runner -up: Eithad $3089 (duration 29:20) NOTE: it stops in Phuket first

LONDON TO BANGKOK

ECONOMY: fare range: $604  to $719

Best value: Swiss Air $611 (duration 13:40

Runners-up:

Lufthansa $664 (duration 14:40)

Finnair $676 (duration 14:55)

BUSINESS: fare range $2058 to $4122

Best value: Swiss Air $2058 (duration 13:40)

Runner-up: Lufthansa $2081 (duration 14:40)

NEW YORK TO HANOI

ECONOMY: fare range $944 to $1200

Best value: Cathay Pacific $1178 (duration 21:55)

NOTE: chose this over competitors due to significant differences in duration)

BUSINESS: fare range $2452 to $6680

Best value: Japan Air $2452 (duration 27:35)

Runner-up: Qatar Airways $4243 (duration 21:55)

LONDON TO HANOI

ECONOMY:  fare range $826 TO $1174

Best value: Turkish Air $826 (duration 15:45)

Runner-up: Cathay Pacific $1174 (duration 19:55)

BUSINESS: fare range $3621 to $4792

Best value: Turkish Air $3621 (duration: 15:45)

Runner-up: none really due to huge cost differences

WHAT TO LOOK FOR AS YOUR INTENDED TRIP DATE GETS CLOSER

What I'm looking out for is more flight offerings. Most carriers that were servicing Southeast Asia destinations have yet to resume the frequency of operations that we were accustomed to before the pandemic. When countries announce hard plans to reopen to foreign tourists. carriers will begin to slowly build capacity. But I expect the change will be gradual.

 

 

[TotallyOz]

Just as a point of reference, I have friends flying from USA to Bangkok in the last 2 weeks and several of them had their flights rescheduled. There was no cost to them, but when you book ASQ hotels, it is troublesome. All were able to rebook ASQ with no fee change as well but many of those hotels will only do this one time.

[fedssocr]

This is part of the reason I haven't bothered to even look or start planning anything. I think a lot of airlines just aren't planning ahead very far which is sensible given the current restrictions in so many places, especially Asia. I got an email from ANA a week or two ago announcing the opening of their schedule for the last quarter of the year for their US gateways to Tokyo. With Europe removing restrictions I would imagine that US flights to Europe are opening up.

As much as I miss traveling it seems like the pandemic is still a problem in too many places for me to be very enthused about going anywhere. I've also seen a bunch of stories about the pent-up demand for travel meaning that fares are quite high at this point compared to their usual levels.

[tm_nyc]

Interesting.  I keep an eye on the NYC-BKK air fares on kayak & they have remained pretty stable for months.  However, I was not aware of the rescheduling issue.  Not surprising as the demand for flights to SE Asia is probably not that strong right now.