When do you expect to be in Thailand next ?

[fedssocr]

it means I want to get there before the PRC does

[Boy69]

7 hours ago, z909 said:

The 15 nights of proper hotel quarantine in Bangkok was more difficult, but that enabled me to get 12 weeks of holiday in Thailand.   Escaping the UK winter and UK covid restrictions. 

I can understand your point of view unfortunately since I am not a retiree I can take a vacation for a maximum 3 to 4 weeks so obviously to spend half of my vacation in quarantine is redicilous .I have no choice but be patient and wait when things get back to normal.

[Londoner]

My perception of this current situation is largely governed by age and my fear that I haven't many trips left.  The three I've already missed, as well as the next (June) I shall also miss,  were ones that , physically, I'd cope with.  The time is coming when neither the journey from the UK nor the delights offered to me on a plate in Thailand (I'm obviously referring to Thai food!) may no longer be within my grasp. 

[Guest]

7 hours ago, fedssocr said:

Getting my vaccination at the end of this week. A lot will depend on travel rules. I am guessing masks will still be required on flights for a long time. Frankly flying 24-ish hours with a mask on doesn't sound like much fun to me. I'm guessing next year at the earliest for me for get to Asia. I'll probably go back to Taiwan first before China invades (hopefully).

You'll be fine with a mask !   

I found flying with a mask is no problem at all.    In some cases, concerns about masks are psychological and once we get used to them, it's no problem.

In Thailand, wearing a mask is mandatory and everyone wears one. 

In the west, the percentage of people who genuinely cannot wear masks should be about the same as Thailand, but we see all sorts of excuses.  Some people claim they can't breath, but I suspect in the majority of cases, it's bullshit.   For example we see young couples, in their 20s wearing no masks.   The probability of young people from 2 different gene pools having a genuine medical exemption must be near zero. 

Surely if people can adapt to high altitude within a day or two, they can easily adapt to the much lesser effects of restriction to air flow from a mask ?    

When staying in The Quarter, Silom, they had a gym, where mask wearing was not compulsory.  I quite often forgot to remove the N95 mask on the exercise bike there, even at my age.     People can adapt, but with a very small percentage of exceptions. 

 

I wore a proper N95 mask on the plane, since as heading into a test & quarantine regime, I wasn't particularly keen on catching covid.   Wearing one of those less effective surgical masks ought to be no problem at all.

My tips for flying are to take a spare mask and use some good quality Listerine mouthwash, as the air inside the mask tends to circulate more slowly.  Airlines typically specify non-valved masks.

 

 

[spoon]

I agree that mask wearing is crucial, and when u are in the confined space of an airplane, with poor circulation, impossible social distancing for an extended time, its is much more crucial. There has been a few cluster here that were spread in the airport or airplane as those are the only time the infected person in contact with the indeks case, early on during the beginning of covid, where contact tracing is very possible. 

Wearing N95 >surgical mask > clothing mask > piece of clothes. Either way, all kind of masks will reduce the chances of contracting the virus. Not sure how the situation will be when you are vaccinated though. Id assume we still need to wear mask for a while.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, spoon said:

in the confined space of an airplane, with poor circulation, impossible social distancing

 

The following photo shows my BKK==>Zurich flight, AFTER boarding was completed .

Unfortunately Swiss didn't have premium economy, but sleeping across 4 economy seats was a very nice compromise.

 

[spoon]

2 hours ago, z909 said:

The following photo shows my BKK==>Zurich flight, AFTER boarding was completed .

Unfortunately Swiss didn't have premium economy, but sleeping across 4 economy seats was a very nice compromise.

 

Lucky you lol traveling during the time where quarantine is required has its perks. Not so much the case for certain route where there is no quarantine requirement for both departing and arrrival countries. 

[18past19]

i just received this picture from a Thai friend today. hoping to be back to LOS soon. 

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, 18past19 said:

i just received this picture from a Thai friend today. hoping to be back to LOS soon. 

 

8 Vaccines, but #2, #3 and #5 are the same vaccine with different branding.

 

[Midguy1]

I chose 2022 as when I expect to be in Thailand, but I "hope" to be back in the Autumn of 2021.

[TMax]

Not good news for Australians, I just hope they can get some successful vaccine travel bubbles going, I do miss having my hands (and other parts) on those smoking hot Thai bodies.

............................

A new report has warned that international travel for Australians is likely to remain restrictive until 2024.

Deloitte Access Economics’ quarterly business outlook - printed prior to the Morrison government’s vaccination program being thrown into disarray late last week - expects international borders will re-open only gradually.

For Australia, Deloitte economist Chris Richardson anticipates there will be some sort of quarantine remaining for incoming travellers for some time.

“That keeps international travel - both inbound and outbound - pretty weak in 2022, and it may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024,” he said

2024 travel prediction

[PeterRS]

Given the recent surge in cases now found in Thailand, I suggest those considering a return before the end of the year should just pause and review developments over the next few weeks. This country had an excellent record in controlling the spread of the virus until it really took the eye off the ball by not even considering the possibility of an outbreak at the Samut Sakhon fish market in December. Successive governments have known about the 2,000 or more illegal Burmese workers at that market and who often flit back and fore over the porous border between the countries. These same governments have claimed they would finally crack down. None did. Money still rules in Thailand. Burmese labour is much cheaper than Thai labour. Even so, being aware of all these illegal workers the present government completely failed to institute a testing programme at the market. That at least would have shown up the problem of an outbreak there perhaps before it had started to spread to the rest of the country.

Now it seems to be at nightclubs and entertainment venues where most new cases are being discovered. Yesterday there was a new daily record of 985 new cases. Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Chonburi and Hua Hin are some of the areas showing increases. The chances that the peak has been reached must be zero given the large number of people now travelling for Songkran holidays. Some hospitals are now refusing to give out testing kits and others are being prepared for more serious cases. Given all this, I cannot believe any further opening up of the country will happen any time soon.

And still no news of when those in the higher risk groups can be vaccinated. Seems like Thailand has reverted to its usual mai pen rai attitude.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Given the recent surge in cases now found in Thailand, I suggest those considering a return before the end of the year should just pause and review developments over the next few weeks.

I wouldn't think many are intending to book holidays 6 months in advance at present.  

The way forward is to monitor the situation and when terms for travel are acceptable, be ready to act decisively and quickly.  ie Book at short notice.    Also don't let minor barriers get in the way.   OK, they might have a few extra bits of paperwork and a few thousand baht might need to be spent on insurance or covid tests.   This can be made back with lower hotel prices.

A lot could happen in Thailand between now and the next easing of travel restrictions, in July or October.   The pandemic could get completely out of control, or as has happened previously, some lockdown might get things back to near normal in 1~2 months.

 

Whilst attention is focused on Covid, the largest known cause of premature & avoidable deaths in Thailand is likely to remain road traffic.   54 deaths yesterday.    They do not shut the roads because of this.

[gerefan]

1 hour ago, z909 said:

 

Whilst attention is focused on Covid, the largest known cause of premature & avoidable deaths in Thailand is likely to remain road traffic.   54 deaths yesterday.    They do not shut the roads because of this.

It’s Songkran which always has a LOWER level of deaths on the road. The national average is actually 65+ per day.

The logic being that the roads are so crowded at Songktan and  New Year etc, you cant actually go fast enough to have a decent accident.

Older members will remember that in the UK, years ago, we used to publish these holiday death rates...until they realised they were actually lower than average!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, gerefan said:

The national average is actually 65+ per day.

Compare the road traffic deaths with a total of 97 covid deaths for the pandemic.   Under 0.25 covid deaths per day.   65+ road traffic deaths per day.

Admittedly part of the reason for the low covid death rate is lockdown measures taken.   However, policy priorities are not entirely rational.

The other cause of death that's ignored is pollution, but deaths due to that are harder to measure.

[vinapu]

3 hours ago, gerefan said:

 

 you cant actually go fast enough to have a decent accident.

 

I like that expression ' decent accident " but I know what you mean

[PeterRS]

7 hours ago, z909 said:

Whilst attention is focused on Covid, the largest known cause of premature & avoidable deaths in Thailand is likely to remain road traffic.   54 deaths yesterday.    They do not shut the roads because of this.

You have consistently made this point - and you are correct. But neither do they shut down airports and almost an entire tourism industry just because of road deaths. Honestly, I cannot see how there can be any comparison.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, PeterRS said:

 I cannot see how there can be any comparison.

Comparing mortality rates for different causes of death is very common and for very good reasons.   For a start, it adds some much needed perspective.

 

[PeterRS]

7 hours ago, z909 said:

Comparing mortality rates for different causes of death is very common and for very good reasons.   For a start, it adds some much needed perspective.

Perspective? There is no perspective when much of the world has had to shut down not once, but twice and more. It is merely a comparison - a comparison of two different types of dying and countries which do something or little about it. That's all. Show me any country which has had to shut down virtually its entire tourism industry because thousands of people happen to die in traffic accidents, many a result of the folly of the deceased themselves? There are none!

[Guest]

The perspective is useful as there is panic over a disease which has been killing people in Thailand at about 0.5% of the rate of road traffic accidents.

Of course, if Thailand takes no action at all & ends up like Brazil*, then covid will be worse in the short term. 

The more likely scenario is the Thai government will again do just enough to keep covid under control, such that the annual death rate remains orders of magnitude below the road traffic accident rate.

[*Tropical country selected for comparison]

[Vessey]

Most days I chat to a couple of other BMs here (and some of the boys as well) and invariably we sooner or later return to the topic of when we are likely to be able to return to Pattaya, some days we feel more optimistic, other days more pessimistic about our chances, depending on both our moods and latest revelations on infection numbers.

Its all pretty futile at the moment as there are so many different things in play both at home and abroad that affect our chances. All have to fall into place to enable us to travel.

The first major consideration for my Irish friend and I are vaccines. I am lucky in that I have now had both my shots (AZ), but he is still waiting for his first.

Second our UK government currently forbids foreign holiday travel, but if our 'road map' is not blown off course, that particular restriction is due to be relaxed in a few weeks time, but there will probably still be a traffic light system of those countries considered safe to travel to - green being ok, but red for those countries where quarantine measures would be applied on our return home (bit more complex than that). 

Third our chosen country has to be prepared to let us in, all be it with their own quarantine regulations and other requirements. Currently Thailand is not doing well with either Covid numbers or vaccine roll-out.

Fourth, there have to be flights available to us.

And so we slowly build our own little road-maps back into Thailand as options become available to consider, but obviously all too aware that resurgences at home or abroad could set all that back months.

So personally I still hope for October, but ............. ? 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Vessey said:

there will probably still be a traffic light system of those countries considered safe to travel to - green being ok, but red for those countries where quarantine measures would be applied on our return home (bit more complex than that)

The report from the UK government travel task force is in the attached link.    The picture below shows a screenshot.    Presumably Thailand would end up amber or green, depending on how the covid outbreak evolves.   

As I know from experience, amber is equivalent to what people returning to the UK from Thailand have to put up with now.  

Green would be a relaxation.

"Green" means the passenger is paying for a covid test before departing and another when returning to the UK.     I suspect this would discourage short term European breaks, but anyone going to Thailand for a few weeks or months should not be put off by the cost of 2 tests. 

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977446/Report-of-the-Global-Travel-Taskforce-accessible.pdf

[Up2u]

Some more perspective. Maybe we can travel to Thailand sooner than thought.  My doctor in Pattaya said I could get the vaccine jabs in May or June with the anticipated opening of the AstraZenega plant here. Private hospitals can purchase vaccines on their own so Moderna and Pfizer should be available in August.  Can't wait. 

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30404871

 

[Londoner]

Some positive news at last....thanks.

[pong2]

Back to orig. subject: expect-well hope to be able to pick up my usual routine as untill 19/20-leave from EUrope to Thailand some time in nov. and stay for 1-2 monthes till a break around Xmas and 1/1 and resume untill the heat gets too much, perhaps with a sidetrip to some nearby ASEAN country (did that untill 15/3/20-exactly the date when all the lockdowns started here in EUR.

BTW-had some trouble with expired mail adresses etc and my subscription, I am just the old pong, but that forum name was thus taken.