Breaking: São Paulo Upping Restrictions

[Riobard]

Whoops, I guess I am now one of the guilty as charged ... 

[Riobard]

São Paulo is likely to impose this week a brand new Phase, Purple, stricter than the current Red, rather than dialling back to Phase Orange.

The country’s rolling average case fatality has bumped up about 50% over the past few weeks, also 50% higher than any previous pandemic peak there, accelerating astronomically per capita over the past few days.

They cannot build field hospitals with cots fast enough and many infected are dying while waiting for urgent care. These measures suggest many cases will be housed to await death while acute care intervention systems simply collapse. 

Typically, whatever the rolling CoV prevalence, new recoveries keep pace with new case incidence as the trajectory of new cases increases gradually. Over the past few days, however, the average ratio is 1-to-1.5 ... that metric value is extremely disturbing, as it suggests about 50% more resources needed, stat, to maintain the previous average mortality rate. 

[Riobard]

State lockdown extended to March 30th with Phase ‘Deep’ Red additional restrictions  commencing March 15th. 

[Riobard]

... and strict curfew 20:00-05:00

[babybear2]

21 hours ago, Riobard said:

... and strict curfew 20:00-05:00

Oh no, what about transportation?

Will there be taxi, uber running after 8pm?

[Riobard]

1 hour ago, babybear2 said:

Oh no, what about transportation?

Will there be taxi, uber running after 8pm?

I assume the curfew is intended to dissuade people from gathering in public. Essential workers need to get around at all hours so I assume private vehicle transport is acceptable for anybody, as it gets folks to a stay-at-home situation as much as possible. Airports are open and flights are not rescheduled to cohere with non-curfew hours; that would not be possible. 

As far as collective transportation, there appears to be some chatter about strategizing that, perhaps attempts to stagger essential working hours in a particular way in order to dilute peak travel  volume. Frankly, I don’t know if workers have to produce an essential status document. 

Montreal has had the same curfew hours for several weeks. The police do ask for proof of essential worker status but obviously can only stop and monitor a few that are seen walking around. I don’t think they are pulling taxis and ride platform vehicles over. People in the strictest zones in Quebec can also walk their dogs within a reasonable radius of their address.

Yet look what was recently stipulated for Rio (Rio!). One would have to drill down and determine the actual interpretation of the decrees. 

 

[Riobard]

It’s a huge challenge to summarize all the details when the recent decree alone is endless pages. I don’t know if curfew details are embedded in it. The curfew restrictions do not appear to be detailed in the state website main pages that correlate phases with restrictions. 

http://dobuscadireta.imprensaoficial.com.br/default.aspx?DataPublicacao=20210312&Caderno=DOE-I&NumeroPagina=1

[Riobard]

Addendum: more details found ...

Taxis, ride apps and public transportation function thru curfew. Drive-thru pickup not permitted but commercial operations can delivery meals, etc, to support sustainability. If you are out on the street or idling in a vehicle you may be asked to go home and if it is obvious you are compliant it should not pose a problem. Various essential sectors may stagger work hours across 3 open-up and closure one-hour phases at day beginning and day end in order to facilitate distancing on public transport. 

[Riobard]

Governor Doria is expected to announce today even more restrictive measures than the ‘red emergency’ phase instituted a few days ago. 

[Riobard]

‘Red emergency phase’ measures are extended to 11April. State case incidence has nevertheless risen by 30% since the decree was enacted 2 weeks ago. Without an offset, the doubling projection is 5 weeks: approximately 30K per day rolling incidence by May. In that event or progressive trajectory, I would not anticipate an alleviation of restrictions. 

Butantan Institute is applying for clinical trial approval of its own developed and locally manufacturable vaccine candidate: Butanvac. 

[Riobard]

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, more federally aligned whereas Butantan is more Sampa-identified, also announced today a similarly feijão-flavoured CoV vaccine candidate in the works to pit against Butantan. Somewhat cloak-and-dagger. I hope they don’t own-goal or cancel each other out in the sandbox of politics and antipathic competition.

Due to the apparent secrecy, we may not see much transparency wrt to the earlier phase research that may or may not have been completed by either.

Butantan also has to juggle its ongoing CoronaVac trials and the nation relies on China’s Sinovac for the ingredients for CoronaVac’s current ongoing authorized population rollout. Stating the intention to go solo may sour Sino-Brazilian relations and decelerate the present vaccination volume when desperately needed. Barely acceptable efficacy is better than nothing right now.